SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +105 over PITTSBURGH
OT included. The ghosts of playoffs past continue to haunt the Capitals and it may be hard to shake them off. Washington now comes into this game in Pittsburgh down 0-2 after losing 6-2 in Game 2. Braden Holtby was yanked. Back in February against Pittsburgh, the Caps lost 8-7 and Holtby was yanked in that game too. We suggested before last game that the Penguins might be in his head and that is certainly possible.
It can't be easy for the Caps to find answers against the Penguins right now, as any mistake or opening that Washington gives to Pittsburgh is turning up as goals against. It's impossible to quantify intangible items like momentum and psychology, but you cannot take the human element out of anything. The core of this Washington group knows that they have lost six of the last eight playoff games to the Pens in the past 12 months, not to mention eight of the last nine series. What is their left to say?
Well, it can be said that all roads to the Stanley Cup go through Pittsburgh. The Caps have never found a way out of town to continue that journey and things are looking bleak once again. However, if this team is different, really and truly different, they are now going to have to find in ample supply of the one thing that no team before them has evidenced in large supply before --- resolve ---and we’re going to bet they find it and here’s why:
Pittsburgh looked awful in winning their first round series against Columbus. They won that series purely on luck and weak goaltending by Sergei Bobrovsky. In the five games of that series, Pittsburgh was the better team on the ice in zero games. In Game 1 of this series in D.C., Pittsburgh looked awful but once again, the puck bounced their way and they pulled out a very fortunate victory. We suggested before Game 2 that Pittsburgh won despite a weak effort and that one cannot reasonably expect another weak effort from the Pens in Game 2. We were wrong. For 60 minutes, it looked like Pittsburgh was killing a penalty. The entire first period was played in Pittsburgh’s end and the score could have easily been 5-0 after one period for the Caps. The rest of the game was mostly played in Pittsburgh’s end too. For 120 minutes of this series, the Penguins have been absolutely and unequivocally dominated throughout.
In 1990, the San Francisco 49ers obliterated the Broncos in the Super Bowl, 55-10. Washington’s dominance over Pittsburgh in this series has been just as convincing as the 49ers win over Denver but Pittsburgh’s luck has been off the charts with not one, but two miracle wins. That 6-2 Penguins victory in Game 2 is one of the most misleading scores in NHL playoff history. Indeed, Game 2 was one-sided but it should have been a five goal or more Washington win and not a four-goal loss.
For seven games in these playoffs, we’ve been anticipating a Penguins wake-up call. It has not happened and it appears they are getting worse. The Pens defense is an absolute wasteland of mistakes that have turned into glorious scoring chances and somehow, someway, the opposition has not capitalized. The Penguins can thank the post, crossbar and unlucky deflections for that. These playoffs have been one horrible turnover after another for the Penguins and there is no wake-up call on the horizon, just like there is no on/off switch that the Penguins can reach for.
Between last year and this year, Pittsburgh’s core has played a ton of hockey. A Stanley Cup victory into late June last year combined with several players participating in the World Cup in September followed by another grueling year filled with injuries has the Penguins gassed. It is beyond clear to us that the Penguins are not the same team this year nor are they as hungry. Pittsburgh is winning for two reasons. One, their luck has been through the roof. Secondly, Marc Andre Fleury has bailed them out in all six victories. Luck runs out and if we lose this bet, so be it but we’re seeing a complete domination of one team over another and we don’t see anything that suggests the Penguins are about to flip a switch on because one doesn’t exist.
When the Capitals were in trouble heading to Toronto, they played two outstanding road games and they also played great in Game 6 in Toronto. Pittsburgh has put up a fraction of the fight that the Maple Leafs put up and all Washington needs is a break to get over the hump. They don’t need luck either. They have clearly been the superior team by a wide, wide margin and if things break evenly, Washington will win easily here and go on to win the series. One game at a time for now.
Washington +105 over PITTSBURGH
OT included. The ghosts of playoffs past continue to haunt the Capitals and it may be hard to shake them off. Washington now comes into this game in Pittsburgh down 0-2 after losing 6-2 in Game 2. Braden Holtby was yanked. Back in February against Pittsburgh, the Caps lost 8-7 and Holtby was yanked in that game too. We suggested before last game that the Penguins might be in his head and that is certainly possible.
It can't be easy for the Caps to find answers against the Penguins right now, as any mistake or opening that Washington gives to Pittsburgh is turning up as goals against. It's impossible to quantify intangible items like momentum and psychology, but you cannot take the human element out of anything. The core of this Washington group knows that they have lost six of the last eight playoff games to the Pens in the past 12 months, not to mention eight of the last nine series. What is their left to say?
Well, it can be said that all roads to the Stanley Cup go through Pittsburgh. The Caps have never found a way out of town to continue that journey and things are looking bleak once again. However, if this team is different, really and truly different, they are now going to have to find in ample supply of the one thing that no team before them has evidenced in large supply before --- resolve ---and we’re going to bet they find it and here’s why:
Pittsburgh looked awful in winning their first round series against Columbus. They won that series purely on luck and weak goaltending by Sergei Bobrovsky. In the five games of that series, Pittsburgh was the better team on the ice in zero games. In Game 1 of this series in D.C., Pittsburgh looked awful but once again, the puck bounced their way and they pulled out a very fortunate victory. We suggested before Game 2 that Pittsburgh won despite a weak effort and that one cannot reasonably expect another weak effort from the Pens in Game 2. We were wrong. For 60 minutes, it looked like Pittsburgh was killing a penalty. The entire first period was played in Pittsburgh’s end and the score could have easily been 5-0 after one period for the Caps. The rest of the game was mostly played in Pittsburgh’s end too. For 120 minutes of this series, the Penguins have been absolutely and unequivocally dominated throughout.
In 1990, the San Francisco 49ers obliterated the Broncos in the Super Bowl, 55-10. Washington’s dominance over Pittsburgh in this series has been just as convincing as the 49ers win over Denver but Pittsburgh’s luck has been off the charts with not one, but two miracle wins. That 6-2 Penguins victory in Game 2 is one of the most misleading scores in NHL playoff history. Indeed, Game 2 was one-sided but it should have been a five goal or more Washington win and not a four-goal loss.
For seven games in these playoffs, we’ve been anticipating a Penguins wake-up call. It has not happened and it appears they are getting worse. The Pens defense is an absolute wasteland of mistakes that have turned into glorious scoring chances and somehow, someway, the opposition has not capitalized. The Penguins can thank the post, crossbar and unlucky deflections for that. These playoffs have been one horrible turnover after another for the Penguins and there is no wake-up call on the horizon, just like there is no on/off switch that the Penguins can reach for.
Between last year and this year, Pittsburgh’s core has played a ton of hockey. A Stanley Cup victory into late June last year combined with several players participating in the World Cup in September followed by another grueling year filled with injuries has the Penguins gassed. It is beyond clear to us that the Penguins are not the same team this year nor are they as hungry. Pittsburgh is winning for two reasons. One, their luck has been through the roof. Secondly, Marc Andre Fleury has bailed them out in all six victories. Luck runs out and if we lose this bet, so be it but we’re seeing a complete domination of one team over another and we don’t see anything that suggests the Penguins are about to flip a switch on because one doesn’t exist.
When the Capitals were in trouble heading to Toronto, they played two outstanding road games and they also played great in Game 6 in Toronto. Pittsburgh has put up a fraction of the fight that the Maple Leafs put up and all Washington needs is a break to get over the hump. They don’t need luck either. They have clearly been the superior team by a wide, wide margin and if things break evenly, Washington will win easily here and go on to win the series. One game at a time for now.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +125 over MIAMI
We like the Marlins. This is a team with power, speed and several very good hitters. When the Marlins are taking back a price, they are going to be the first team we look at daily because some great profits are in store. However, what they don’t have is starting pitching and so we’re not about to pass up a price like this against Wei-Yin Chen (LHP).
Chen has 13 K’s in 21 frames with a 9% swing and miss rate. He has a 4.71 ERA, a 4.68 xERA, a 1.24 WHIP and a groundball/fly-ball split of 35%/43%. There is nothing in Chen’s profile that suggests spotting a price with him is a good idea. Things got so bad for him last year that he moved into the pen for two months. Beset by gopheritis (giving up jacks) once again, and with his middling swing and miss rate and low groundball%, this is a package we want no part of as the chalk. If Miami wins, good for them but in terms of value, Chen must be faded when priced in this range.
Jake Odorizzi is not much better but he’s not the one spotting a price here. If he were, we would be on the Marlins. Odorizzi’s fly-ball rate is up another tick this year. HR’s were persistent last year and the damage inflicted by RHBs appears to be on the upswing. Yet despite his unimpressive dominant start/disaster start split, Odorizzi still managed to retain a sub-4 ERA last season while eating innings and racking up wins and K’s. In three starts this year covering 13 innings, all of his numbers are better than Chen’s. Control and an upper hand versus lefties keep Odorizzi's head above water and we’ll bank on him keeping the Rays in it here.
Chicago +145 over KANSAS CITY
Which team is young, energetic and can’t wait to play some ball and which team is full of veteran players that had a great run for a few years but is out of the pennant race after a month? Mindset plays a big part of this game and as the great Yogi Berra said, “Baseball is 90 percent mental. The other half is physical.” Kansas City comes into this game with the worst record (7-16) in MLB while the South Side, who unloaded everyone and was projected to lose 100 games, are sitting at 13-10 and have won six of their last seven games.
The South Side is taking back a sweet tag here because they’re sending out a rookie with horrible numbers back out there. Dylan Covey (RHP) is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA after three starts. He’s has more walks (8) than strikeouts (6) in 14 innings of work so we can understand the reluctance to get behind him here. However, we’re not going to judge a starter over three starts. This is a pitcher with only 30 innings of Double-A experience and that skipped Triple-A altogether. Of course he’s going to be excited and nervous about pitching in the big leagues and now all he has to do is settle down. Three starts in and we’re willing to gamble that things get better here because Covey has a power arm and returned with self-confidence in the Arizona Fall League after his injury-plagued campaign.
He’s long had potential since he was an unsigned first round pick of the Brewers in 2010. Oakland later drafted him in 2013 after his college days at San Diego. The White Sox selected him in the Rule 5 draft in December of 2016. Covey hits his spots with a terrific 89-94 mph fastball and keeps the ball down in the zone for groundballs. He likes to use his sinker early in the count. His big breaking curveball registers strikeouts, but he has trouble throwing it for consistent strikes. A decent change-up gives him a third average offering. Covey has a good pitcher’s frame and if you take away his one start in the Bronx (5 IP, 10 ER, 3 HR’s), his numbers look pretty good with 0 HR’s allowed and just eight hits surrendered in nine combined innings over two other starts.
Then there’s the resurgence of Jason Vargas (LHP) with his BB/K split of 2/28 and 1.40 ERA after 26 innings. Prior to his last seven starts, Vargas had a career 5.5 K’s/9 over 12 seasons. How does a 34-year-old lefty that is coming off a 14 month hiatus after TJS, go from 5.5 K’s/9 over 12 years to 9.8 K’s/9 over four 2017 starts? Prior to signing with the Royals in 2013, Vargas made only 10 starts at AL Central parks and In 56 innings he had a 5.91 ERA with 13 HR, a 1.65 WHIP with 4 K’s/9. Four years later and he’s blowing away people with a fastball that tops off at 86 MPH?
The experts are citing that his release points look different and they’re resulting in different movement on his pitches (or at least his fastballs), too. If one were to ask why he’s more effective, it appears to be related to his command, which is the result of a minor mechanical adjustment. We are talking mere inches horizontally and vertically — and it might be a good time to mention that we’re not physicists nor are we biomechanics experts. We’re not sure if the movement theory is legitimate. Regardless, a mechanical adjustment could very well cultivate sustainable results. We’ve seen it before but it’s just so hard to believe that this time it is coming from a perennially mediocre starter for 12 years that has worked with 15 different pitching coaches. This is Bartolo Colon with a curve ball that is worth fading at these prices.
Tampa Bay +125 over MIAMI
We like the Marlins. This is a team with power, speed and several very good hitters. When the Marlins are taking back a price, they are going to be the first team we look at daily because some great profits are in store. However, what they don’t have is starting pitching and so we’re not about to pass up a price like this against Wei-Yin Chen (LHP).
Chen has 13 K’s in 21 frames with a 9% swing and miss rate. He has a 4.71 ERA, a 4.68 xERA, a 1.24 WHIP and a groundball/fly-ball split of 35%/43%. There is nothing in Chen’s profile that suggests spotting a price with him is a good idea. Things got so bad for him last year that he moved into the pen for two months. Beset by gopheritis (giving up jacks) once again, and with his middling swing and miss rate and low groundball%, this is a package we want no part of as the chalk. If Miami wins, good for them but in terms of value, Chen must be faded when priced in this range.
Jake Odorizzi is not much better but he’s not the one spotting a price here. If he were, we would be on the Marlins. Odorizzi’s fly-ball rate is up another tick this year. HR’s were persistent last year and the damage inflicted by RHBs appears to be on the upswing. Yet despite his unimpressive dominant start/disaster start split, Odorizzi still managed to retain a sub-4 ERA last season while eating innings and racking up wins and K’s. In three starts this year covering 13 innings, all of his numbers are better than Chen’s. Control and an upper hand versus lefties keep Odorizzi's head above water and we’ll bank on him keeping the Rays in it here.
Chicago +145 over KANSAS CITY
Which team is young, energetic and can’t wait to play some ball and which team is full of veteran players that had a great run for a few years but is out of the pennant race after a month? Mindset plays a big part of this game and as the great Yogi Berra said, “Baseball is 90 percent mental. The other half is physical.” Kansas City comes into this game with the worst record (7-16) in MLB while the South Side, who unloaded everyone and was projected to lose 100 games, are sitting at 13-10 and have won six of their last seven games.
The South Side is taking back a sweet tag here because they’re sending out a rookie with horrible numbers back out there. Dylan Covey (RHP) is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA after three starts. He’s has more walks (8) than strikeouts (6) in 14 innings of work so we can understand the reluctance to get behind him here. However, we’re not going to judge a starter over three starts. This is a pitcher with only 30 innings of Double-A experience and that skipped Triple-A altogether. Of course he’s going to be excited and nervous about pitching in the big leagues and now all he has to do is settle down. Three starts in and we’re willing to gamble that things get better here because Covey has a power arm and returned with self-confidence in the Arizona Fall League after his injury-plagued campaign.
He’s long had potential since he was an unsigned first round pick of the Brewers in 2010. Oakland later drafted him in 2013 after his college days at San Diego. The White Sox selected him in the Rule 5 draft in December of 2016. Covey hits his spots with a terrific 89-94 mph fastball and keeps the ball down in the zone for groundballs. He likes to use his sinker early in the count. His big breaking curveball registers strikeouts, but he has trouble throwing it for consistent strikes. A decent change-up gives him a third average offering. Covey has a good pitcher’s frame and if you take away his one start in the Bronx (5 IP, 10 ER, 3 HR’s), his numbers look pretty good with 0 HR’s allowed and just eight hits surrendered in nine combined innings over two other starts.
Then there’s the resurgence of Jason Vargas (LHP) with his BB/K split of 2/28 and 1.40 ERA after 26 innings. Prior to his last seven starts, Vargas had a career 5.5 K’s/9 over 12 seasons. How does a 34-year-old lefty that is coming off a 14 month hiatus after TJS, go from 5.5 K’s/9 over 12 years to 9.8 K’s/9 over four 2017 starts? Prior to signing with the Royals in 2013, Vargas made only 10 starts at AL Central parks and In 56 innings he had a 5.91 ERA with 13 HR, a 1.65 WHIP with 4 K’s/9. Four years later and he’s blowing away people with a fastball that tops off at 86 MPH?
The experts are citing that his release points look different and they’re resulting in different movement on his pitches (or at least his fastballs), too. If one were to ask why he’s more effective, it appears to be related to his command, which is the result of a minor mechanical adjustment. We are talking mere inches horizontally and vertically — and it might be a good time to mention that we’re not physicists nor are we biomechanics experts. We’re not sure if the movement theory is legitimate. Regardless, a mechanical adjustment could very well cultivate sustainable results. We’ve seen it before but it’s just so hard to believe that this time it is coming from a perennially mediocre starter for 12 years that has worked with 15 different pitching coaches. This is Bartolo Colon with a curve ball that is worth fading at these prices.
Tony Stoffo
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -150
Milwaukee sends out Zach Davies, 2-2 with a 6.57 ERA. The right hander allowed four runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings but still earned a win the last time he faced the Cards. The Brewers lead the NL Central in runs allowed with 128. The Brewers are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in St. Louis and 3-7 in Davies' last 10 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
St. Louis has won nine of their last twelve with three of those wins coming at Milwaukee. The Cardinals hand the ball to Michael Wacha with a 2-1 mark and a 2.55 ERA. The right hander is 4-0 with a 4.09 ERA in seven career games against the Brewers. The Cardinals are 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 5-1 in Wacha's last 6 home starts.
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -150
Milwaukee sends out Zach Davies, 2-2 with a 6.57 ERA. The right hander allowed four runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings but still earned a win the last time he faced the Cards. The Brewers lead the NL Central in runs allowed with 128. The Brewers are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in St. Louis and 3-7 in Davies' last 10 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
St. Louis has won nine of their last twelve with three of those wins coming at Milwaukee. The Cardinals hand the ball to Michael Wacha with a 2-1 mark and a 2.55 ERA. The right hander is 4-0 with a 4.09 ERA in seven career games against the Brewers. The Cardinals are 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 5-1 in Wacha's last 6 home starts.
Otto Sports
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Play: Pittsburgh -111
Pittsburgh's offense has started to pick it up some with respectable .265/.360/.446/.805 splits over its last nine games (5-4, 4.6 runs per game). Cincinnati meanwhile is headed in the opposite direction. They've lost 11 of 15 and seen the team's batting average drop 23 points and OPS 54 points during that span.
Gerrit Cole will take the hill for the Pirates tonight. After a rough outing at Boston to open the year, Cole owns a 2.52 ERA and a stellar 25-5 K-to-BB ratio over his last four starts. He was at his best last time out, throwing only 78 pitches over 7 scoreless innings against the ultra-potent Chicago Cubs.
Amir Garrett has been one of the few bright spots for Cincinnati's decimated rotation. Garrett was practically unhittable in his first three starts (1.83 ERA) but ran into some difficulty last time out as Milwaukee torched him for nine runs in 3.1 innings. Garrett doesn't have overpowering stuff and could find it more difficult when facing teams for a second time like he will here tonight (6 IP, 2 ER vs. Pittsburgh on April 12).
We also need to bring up Cincinnati's bullpen situation. Due to all of the injuries to the starting staff, the Reds' relievers have been worked extremely hard. They lead MLB with over 100 IP through 24 games and come into this game even more fatigued having thrown 34.2 over the last ten days including five innings in yesterday's 5-4 win over St. Louis. And not only is fatigue a concern but regression as well as this group currently flashes MLB's second-best xFIP (3.10) despite ranking dead last in 2016 (4.79). I'll side with the short road favorite tonight.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Play: Pittsburgh -111
Pittsburgh's offense has started to pick it up some with respectable .265/.360/.446/.805 splits over its last nine games (5-4, 4.6 runs per game). Cincinnati meanwhile is headed in the opposite direction. They've lost 11 of 15 and seen the team's batting average drop 23 points and OPS 54 points during that span.
Gerrit Cole will take the hill for the Pirates tonight. After a rough outing at Boston to open the year, Cole owns a 2.52 ERA and a stellar 25-5 K-to-BB ratio over his last four starts. He was at his best last time out, throwing only 78 pitches over 7 scoreless innings against the ultra-potent Chicago Cubs.
Amir Garrett has been one of the few bright spots for Cincinnati's decimated rotation. Garrett was practically unhittable in his first three starts (1.83 ERA) but ran into some difficulty last time out as Milwaukee torched him for nine runs in 3.1 innings. Garrett doesn't have overpowering stuff and could find it more difficult when facing teams for a second time like he will here tonight (6 IP, 2 ER vs. Pittsburgh on April 12).
We also need to bring up Cincinnati's bullpen situation. Due to all of the injuries to the starting staff, the Reds' relievers have been worked extremely hard. They lead MLB with over 100 IP through 24 games and come into this game even more fatigued having thrown 34.2 over the last ten days including five innings in yesterday's 5-4 win over St. Louis. And not only is fatigue a concern but regression as well as this group currently flashes MLB's second-best xFIP (3.10) despite ranking dead last in 2016 (4.79). I'll side with the short road favorite tonight.
Bill Marzano
Houston at San Antonio
Play: Houston +6
I really like the Houston Rockets + the points in this game vs the SA Spurs...this series has the chance to be the best and maybe even the full seven games...the Rockets can shoot plain and simple but did lose three of four meetings vs the Spurs this year...the Spurs won the last two meetings by two points, and once by six points...the Rockets average a little over 115 points per game and have been equally as good on the road averaging almost 114...the will challenge the Spurs defensively with the way they can stretch the floor, its going to come down to how well can Houston defend...expect another close game here...I like Houston + the points
Houston at San Antonio
Play: Houston +6
I really like the Houston Rockets + the points in this game vs the SA Spurs...this series has the chance to be the best and maybe even the full seven games...the Rockets can shoot plain and simple but did lose three of four meetings vs the Spurs this year...the Spurs won the last two meetings by two points, and once by six points...the Rockets average a little over 115 points per game and have been equally as good on the road averaging almost 114...the will challenge the Spurs defensively with the way they can stretch the floor, its going to come down to how well can Houston defend...expect another close game here...I like Houston + the points
MLB
Short Sheet
Monday, May 1
NY Mets at Atlanta, 7:35 PM ET
GSellman: NY Mets at 15-6 OVER vs div. opponents
Teheran: Atlanta is 92-66 OVER vs div. opponents
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 7:10 PM ET
Cole: 14-3 Over as a favorite
Garrett: cinci is 7-0 OVER after having lost 3 of their last 4
Philadelphia at Chicago, 8:05 PM ET
Velasquez: Philadelphia is 27-17 after a loss by 2 runs or less
Anderson: Cubs are 59-27 as a favorite of -125 to -175
Milwaukee at St Louis, 8:15 PM ET
Davies: Milwaukee is 15-6revenging 2 straight home losses vs opponent
Wacha: St Louis is 18-23 as a home favorite of -125 to -175
San Francisco at LA Dodgers, 10:10 PM ET
Cueto: 18-3 TSR in first half of season
Kershaw: Dodgers are 6-13 off back to back wins by 2 runs or less
Toronto at NY Yankees, 7:05 PM ET
Estrada: Toronto is 7-26 as a dog of +125 to +175
Severino: NY Yankees are 29-15 against div opponents
Baltimore at Boston, 7:10 PM ET
Bundy: 11-2 Under in night games
Porcello: Boston is 12-3 Under as a favorite
Cleveland at Detroit, 7:10 PM ET
Bauer: Cleveland is 12-23 on the road after winning 3 of their last 4
Norris: Detroit is 27-9 after a win by 4 runs or more
Texas at Houston, 8:10 PM ET
Cashner: Texas is 35-18 after scoring 2 runs or less
McCullers: 9-0 Under at home off a win
Chicago at Kansas City, 8:15 PM ET
Covey: White Sox are 7-1 vs left handed starters
Vargas: KC is 2-9 as a favorite
Tampa Bay at Miami, 7:10 PM ET
Odorizzi: Tampa Bay is 11-24 after scoring 1 run or less
Chen: 24-7 TSR at home off a win
*TSR = Team Start Record
Short Sheet
Monday, May 1
NY Mets at Atlanta, 7:35 PM ET
GSellman: NY Mets at 15-6 OVER vs div. opponents
Teheran: Atlanta is 92-66 OVER vs div. opponents
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 7:10 PM ET
Cole: 14-3 Over as a favorite
Garrett: cinci is 7-0 OVER after having lost 3 of their last 4
Philadelphia at Chicago, 8:05 PM ET
Velasquez: Philadelphia is 27-17 after a loss by 2 runs or less
Anderson: Cubs are 59-27 as a favorite of -125 to -175
Milwaukee at St Louis, 8:15 PM ET
Davies: Milwaukee is 15-6revenging 2 straight home losses vs opponent
Wacha: St Louis is 18-23 as a home favorite of -125 to -175
San Francisco at LA Dodgers, 10:10 PM ET
Cueto: 18-3 TSR in first half of season
Kershaw: Dodgers are 6-13 off back to back wins by 2 runs or less
Toronto at NY Yankees, 7:05 PM ET
Estrada: Toronto is 7-26 as a dog of +125 to +175
Severino: NY Yankees are 29-15 against div opponents
Baltimore at Boston, 7:10 PM ET
Bundy: 11-2 Under in night games
Porcello: Boston is 12-3 Under as a favorite
Cleveland at Detroit, 7:10 PM ET
Bauer: Cleveland is 12-23 on the road after winning 3 of their last 4
Norris: Detroit is 27-9 after a win by 4 runs or more
Texas at Houston, 8:10 PM ET
Cashner: Texas is 35-18 after scoring 2 runs or less
McCullers: 9-0 Under at home off a win
Chicago at Kansas City, 8:15 PM ET
Covey: White Sox are 7-1 vs left handed starters
Vargas: KC is 2-9 as a favorite
Tampa Bay at Miami, 7:10 PM ET
Odorizzi: Tampa Bay is 11-24 after scoring 1 run or less
Chen: 24-7 TSR at home off a win
*TSR = Team Start Record
MLB Daily Line Drive: Monday's picks, betting odds and analysis
Double-Play Picks
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-155, 8.5)
The Brewers and Cardinals kick off their four-game rivalry series with a Monday evening matchup of righty starters - Zack Davies and Michael Wacha.
This first pick of the new week comes down to two major factors: the Brewers' starting pitcher and the weather.
Davies is not an acceptable major league starting pitcher. Somehow, he managed to spin five shutout innings in his last start at home against the Cincinnati Reds, but despite that effort his season ERA is still a puffy 6.57. All five of his starts this season, and nine of his last 10 overall dating back to last season, have gone Over the closing total. Davies' last start against the Cards was two weeks ago when he allowed four runs over 5.1 innings of work - he'll be hard-pressed to duplicate that mediocre effort tonight.
Never place a totals wager without checking the weather report! The wind for Monday night in St. Louis is expected to be blowing straight out to center field at 13-15 miles per hour.
Pick: Over 8.5
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-115, 8.5)
Revenge is a dish best served...pretty warm...perhaps even hot.
One week ago in Chicago, Kansas City Royals' lefty Jason Vargas swaggered his way into Guaranteed Rate Field on the city's South Side as the best pitcher in baseball (3-0, 0.44 ERA). By the end of that evening the White Sox had taught him a valuable lesson about being too confident, with the final result (mostly because of the Royals' bullpen) being a 12-1 Kansas City loss.
Exactly seven days later, Vargas will straddle the rubber atop his home field mound at Kauffman Stadium loaded with just the right amount of "fear and ignorance" (or is it "fear and arrogance"?), and he will spite his evil enemy with a might revenge performance.
Pick: Royals -155
Yesterday: 1-1
Season: 17-16-1
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles (3-1, 1.65 ERA, $300)
The Orioles send Dylan Bundy to the mound at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox in a game that should carry with it some playoff intensity after the events of last week between these two teams.
Bundy is finally looking like the prospect who was so highly touted for all those years in the Orioles organization. The 24-year-old right hander is 3-1 in his five starts this season (Team W/L 4-1), pitching to a 1.65 ERA and a .980 WHIP
Slumping: Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates (1-3, 3.60 ERA, $-51)
Gerrit Cole gets the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates today in Cincinnati against the Reds. The "Slumping Starting Pitcher" section for today is not reserved for a starter who is off to a terrible start to 2017 (Team W/L of 2-3 and a 3.60 ERA could certainly be worse), but instead for a starting pitcher who is slumping, and has always slumped, against one particular opponent.
The Pirates have been a very competitive team in the National League Central for most of Cole's career (this is his fifth season) but for some strange reason they can not beat the Reds when he pitches. Today will be his ninth career start against Cincinnati and the Pirates are 0-8 in his previous eight outings.
He has never allowed any more than five earned runs against the Reds in any start, but for some reason his team just can't seem to win those games. Snake-bitten.
Monday's Top Trends
* Over is 10-0 in Trevor Bauer's last 10 starts vs. the Detroit Tigers. Total today @ Detroit is set at 9.
* The Pittsburgh Pirates are 0-8 in Gerrit Cole's eight career starts vs. the Cincinnati Reds. Pirates -125 faves @ Cincy.
* The Miami Marlins are 8-1 in Wei-Yin Chen's last nine starts at home. -130 today vs. Rays.
* Under is 10-1 in Jason Vargas' last 11 starts. Total today vs. White Sox set at 8.5.
Weather to Keep an Eye On
There is a 40-50 percent chance of rain all day on the North Side of Chicago where the Cubs will welcome the Philadelphia Phillies to town. If this game happens it will feature a 17-20 mile per hour wind blowing straight out to center field at Wrigley. The total was late arriving, but has been set at 10.5.
One other notable hitter's wind will happen at Busch Stadium in St. Louis where the Cards and Brewers hitters will be enjoying a 13-15 miles per hour breeze blowing straight out to center. The total for that one is currently at 8.5.
Double-Play Picks
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-155, 8.5)
The Brewers and Cardinals kick off their four-game rivalry series with a Monday evening matchup of righty starters - Zack Davies and Michael Wacha.
This first pick of the new week comes down to two major factors: the Brewers' starting pitcher and the weather.
Davies is not an acceptable major league starting pitcher. Somehow, he managed to spin five shutout innings in his last start at home against the Cincinnati Reds, but despite that effort his season ERA is still a puffy 6.57. All five of his starts this season, and nine of his last 10 overall dating back to last season, have gone Over the closing total. Davies' last start against the Cards was two weeks ago when he allowed four runs over 5.1 innings of work - he'll be hard-pressed to duplicate that mediocre effort tonight.
Never place a totals wager without checking the weather report! The wind for Monday night in St. Louis is expected to be blowing straight out to center field at 13-15 miles per hour.
Pick: Over 8.5
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-115, 8.5)
Revenge is a dish best served...pretty warm...perhaps even hot.
One week ago in Chicago, Kansas City Royals' lefty Jason Vargas swaggered his way into Guaranteed Rate Field on the city's South Side as the best pitcher in baseball (3-0, 0.44 ERA). By the end of that evening the White Sox had taught him a valuable lesson about being too confident, with the final result (mostly because of the Royals' bullpen) being a 12-1 Kansas City loss.
Exactly seven days later, Vargas will straddle the rubber atop his home field mound at Kauffman Stadium loaded with just the right amount of "fear and ignorance" (or is it "fear and arrogance"?), and he will spite his evil enemy with a might revenge performance.
Pick: Royals -155
Yesterday: 1-1
Season: 17-16-1
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles (3-1, 1.65 ERA, $300)
The Orioles send Dylan Bundy to the mound at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox in a game that should carry with it some playoff intensity after the events of last week between these two teams.
Bundy is finally looking like the prospect who was so highly touted for all those years in the Orioles organization. The 24-year-old right hander is 3-1 in his five starts this season (Team W/L 4-1), pitching to a 1.65 ERA and a .980 WHIP
Slumping: Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates (1-3, 3.60 ERA, $-51)
Gerrit Cole gets the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates today in Cincinnati against the Reds. The "Slumping Starting Pitcher" section for today is not reserved for a starter who is off to a terrible start to 2017 (Team W/L of 2-3 and a 3.60 ERA could certainly be worse), but instead for a starting pitcher who is slumping, and has always slumped, against one particular opponent.
The Pirates have been a very competitive team in the National League Central for most of Cole's career (this is his fifth season) but for some strange reason they can not beat the Reds when he pitches. Today will be his ninth career start against Cincinnati and the Pirates are 0-8 in his previous eight outings.
He has never allowed any more than five earned runs against the Reds in any start, but for some reason his team just can't seem to win those games. Snake-bitten.
Monday's Top Trends
* Over is 10-0 in Trevor Bauer's last 10 starts vs. the Detroit Tigers. Total today @ Detroit is set at 9.
* The Pittsburgh Pirates are 0-8 in Gerrit Cole's eight career starts vs. the Cincinnati Reds. Pirates -125 faves @ Cincy.
* The Miami Marlins are 8-1 in Wei-Yin Chen's last nine starts at home. -130 today vs. Rays.
* Under is 10-1 in Jason Vargas' last 11 starts. Total today vs. White Sox set at 8.5.
Weather to Keep an Eye On
There is a 40-50 percent chance of rain all day on the North Side of Chicago where the Cubs will welcome the Philadelphia Phillies to town. If this game happens it will feature a 17-20 mile per hour wind blowing straight out to center field at Wrigley. The total was late arriving, but has been set at 10.5.
One other notable hitter's wind will happen at Busch Stadium in St. Louis where the Cards and Brewers hitters will be enjoying a 13-15 miles per hour breeze blowing straight out to center. The total for that one is currently at 8.5.
