Power Sports
Tampa Bay vs. Miami
Pick: Tampa Bay
Blindly taking the American League team in Interleague Play can be an effective betting strategy, but when they're the better team and getting 'plus money,' it's a virtual steal. Tampa Bay comes into this four-game set (two games here, then two at home) having dropped B2B games in which they've scored a total of just two runs (1 both games). But even w/ the DH dropping out of the lineup, I see far more offensive success taking place tonight in Miami as Marlins starter Wei-Yin Chen has not been good in 2017.
Chen's one home start so far was a disaster. He gave up six runs in three innings and that was against the Mets. He has not pitched well here since coming over from Baltimore last season. His ERA in 11 home starts last year was 5.49. Tampa Bay is more than familiar w/ him due to his time spent in the AL East. In 20 career starts against the Rays (most vs. any opponent), Chen has a losing record to go along w/ a 3.76 ERA. With J.T. Realmuto expected back behind the plate tonight, Marlins fans (all 5 of them?) may rejoice over what they feel will be an offensive upgrade over backup catcher A.J. Ellis. But while Ellis is only a .136 hitter, his effect on the pitching staff more than counteracts that. The team is 4-1 this season w/ Ellis behind the plate (as opposed to 7-11 w/ Realmuto) due in large part to his outstanding pitch framing. Marlins' pitchers see their ERA decrease by 1.86 when Ellis is in the lineup.
The Rays are by no means an offensive juggernaut, but they will welcome back Jake Odorizzi to the rotation tonight. He's coming off the 15-day DL (hamstring) here. Miami did score 10 runs Sunday, but on Saturday they were shutout on just 95 pitches! The Marlins' 14-29 Interleague record is bad, even by NL standards, and I see Tampa coming in and taking this series opener.
Tampa Bay vs. Miami
Pick: Tampa Bay
Blindly taking the American League team in Interleague Play can be an effective betting strategy, but when they're the better team and getting 'plus money,' it's a virtual steal. Tampa Bay comes into this four-game set (two games here, then two at home) having dropped B2B games in which they've scored a total of just two runs (1 both games). But even w/ the DH dropping out of the lineup, I see far more offensive success taking place tonight in Miami as Marlins starter Wei-Yin Chen has not been good in 2017.
Chen's one home start so far was a disaster. He gave up six runs in three innings and that was against the Mets. He has not pitched well here since coming over from Baltimore last season. His ERA in 11 home starts last year was 5.49. Tampa Bay is more than familiar w/ him due to his time spent in the AL East. In 20 career starts against the Rays (most vs. any opponent), Chen has a losing record to go along w/ a 3.76 ERA. With J.T. Realmuto expected back behind the plate tonight, Marlins fans (all 5 of them?) may rejoice over what they feel will be an offensive upgrade over backup catcher A.J. Ellis. But while Ellis is only a .136 hitter, his effect on the pitching staff more than counteracts that. The team is 4-1 this season w/ Ellis behind the plate (as opposed to 7-11 w/ Realmuto) due in large part to his outstanding pitch framing. Marlins' pitchers see their ERA decrease by 1.86 when Ellis is in the lineup.
The Rays are by no means an offensive juggernaut, but they will welcome back Jake Odorizzi to the rotation tonight. He's coming off the 15-day DL (hamstring) here. Miami did score 10 runs Sunday, but on Saturday they were shutout on just 95 pitches! The Marlins' 14-29 Interleague record is bad, even by NL standards, and I see Tampa coming in and taking this series opener.
