StatSystems Sports NBA Report, Monday 3/14/11
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 3/14/11
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NBA *****
_______________________________________________
When you are ready to step up an into the challenge of advanced sports handicapping, be sure to check out Stan 'The Man's ALL NEW Stat/Systems Sheets. They are loaded with power ratings, computer predictions, matchups, betting trends, systems, statistics, schedules and results. Once you have sampled my Stat/Systems Sheets, you will no longer need free picks, consensus plays, or other professional handicapping services!
Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
__________________________________________________ ________________
••• SWEET REVENGE! •••
--------------------------------
Maybe, just maybe, the Miami Heat are rolling once again. There hasn’t been any crying in South Florida the past four days as the Heat have posted consecutive impressive home wins against the Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies. These victories came following five consecutive losses, a streak some thought impossible from a team featuring LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. But now another major test comes for the Heat courtesy of the San Antonio Spurs, owners of the best record in the NBA at 54-12. No other team has fewer than 17 losses and more than 47 victories.
Miami’s mental toughness came into question, not to mention its status as an elite team, during the five-game losing streak that included a blown 24-point home lead to Orlando, a 30-point road loss to the Spurs and a one-point home loss to Chicago that left some players in tears. The Heat will be looking to avenge one (of many) of their most embarrassing losses this season when they host the Spurs on Monday night for the second of two meetings between the two NBA Finals contenders. Part III of Miami’s recent and well-publicized five-game losing streak came in San Antonio on March 4. The home team—a 2.5-point favorite—humiliated the reeling visitors 125-95 in a contest that was over after one period (the Spurs led 36-12).
Miami’s “Big 3” shot the ball well and combined for 62 points, but the Heat hardly even attempted to play an ounce of defense. The Spurs showcased their typical team basketball and dished out 29 assists while shooting 46 for 82 from the floor, including a ridiculous 17 for 28 from downtown. An amazing eight guys in San Antonio uniforms scored in double-figures, led by Manu Ginobili’s 20 and Matt Bonner’s 18.
The Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, but 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall. The over is 4-0 in San Antonio’s last four road games and 6-1 in their last seven overall. The over is 10-2 in Miami’s last 12 against the Western Conference. Head-to-head, the Spurs are 4-0 ATS in the last four encounters. The under is 4-0 in the last four at Miami and 18-3 in the last 21 overall.
__________________________________________________ _______________
***** MONDAY, MARCH 14TH NBA INFORMATION *****
______________________________________________
(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
__________________________________________________ _______________________
• HOT TEAMS
-----------------
-- Nets won their last four games, with two of last three wins in OT.
-- Thunder won six of its last seven games.
-- Miami won its last two games, allowing 88-85 points, after losing its previous five games. Spurs won five of their last six games.
-- Denver won five of last six games, covered nine of last ten. Hornets won four of their last five games.
-- Clippers won four of their last five games.
-- 76ers won seven of their last ten road games.
-- Warriors won three of their last four games.
-- Lakers won nine of their last ten games. Orlando won four of its last five road games.
• COLD TEAMS
-------------------
-- Celtics covered once in their last five games as a favorite.
-- Wizards lost 10 of their last 11 games.
-- Grizzlies lost last two games, allowing 114 ppg.
-- Houston lost last two games, after winning previous eight; they're 7-1 vs spread in their last eight. Suns lost three of their last four tilts, losing last two by 19-23 points.
-- Utah lost 11 of its last 14 games.
-- Sacramento lost its last eight games; they're 6-4 vs spread in their last ten home games.
• BACK-TO-BACK
---------------------
-- Celtics are 2-8 vs spread if they won the night before.
-- Thunder is 2-4 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Suns are 5-5 vs spread if they played night before, 1-2 if they lost.
-- Warriors are 6-4-1 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Orlando is 6-4 vs spread on road if they won night before.
• TOTALS
------------
-- Three of last four Celtic games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Oklahoma City road games went over total.
-- Over is 9-2 in San Antonio's last eleven games.
-- Five of last six Denver games stayed under the total.
-- Last six Memphis games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Houston games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-3 in Philadelphia's last eleven road games.
-- Last six Sacramento games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Laker games stayed under the total.
• KEY TRENDS
------------------
-- San Antonio has played over the total in six of its last seven games.
-- Denver has covered in nine of its last 10 games overall, losing outright only twice during that run.
-- Washington has just one win over its last 11 games, covering only three times during the slump.
-- Houston has covered only six times in its last 27 matchups with the Phoenix Suns.
• QUICK HITS
-----------------
--BOSTON @ NEW JERSEY, 7:00 PM ET BOSTON: 2-10 ATS off win by 15+ pts. NEW JERSEY: 12-3 Under revenging 2 double digit losses.
--OKLAHOMA CITY @ WASHINGTON, 7:00 PM ET OKLAHOMA CITY: 20-7 Over if favored L2 games. WASHINGTON: 9-22 ATS off home game.
--SAN ANTONIO @ MIAMI, 8:00 PM ET ESPN SAN ANTONIO: 23-13 ATS off ATS win. MIAMI: 11-20 ATS as home favorite.
--DENVER @ NEW ORLEANS, 8:00 PM ET DENVER: 7-0 Under at New Orleans. NEW ORLEANS: 0-6 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games.
--LA CLIPPERS @ MEMPHIS, 8:00 PM ET LA CLIPPERS: 12-29 ATS Away revenging loss of 3 pts or less. MEMPHIS: 14-5 ATS off road loss.
--PHOENIX @ HOUSTON, 8:30 PM ET PHOENIX: 19-8 ATS at Houston. HOUSTON: 6-1 ATS off home division loss.
--PHILADELPHIA @ UTAH, 9:00 PM ET PHILADELPHIA: 6-0 ATS after scoring 85 pts or less. UTAH: 0-4 ATS off BB road losses.
--GOLDEN STATE @ SACRAMENTO, 10:00 PM ET GOLDEN STATE: 11-2 ATS as road dog of 3 pts or less. SACRAMENTO: 9-23 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.
--ORLANDO @ LA LAKERS, 10:30 PM ET ESPN ORLANDO: 4-12 ATS off road win. LA LAKERS: 8-2 Under vs. Orlando.
• NOTES & TIPS
--------------------
-- Danilo Gallinari, Arron Afflalo, Denver Nuggets questionable: There was some talk that Gallinari might have had a shot to return from his broken toe injury to play Monday night against the New Orleans Hornets, but now it looks more likely that he won’t play before Friday. The 6-foot-10 forward is putting up almost 16 points and five rebounds per game. Afflalo hasn’t been ruled out for Monday’s game but is considered questionable at best with his hamstring issue.
-- Los Angeles Lakers coach Phil Jackson says that superstar Kobe Bryant is a game-time decision for Monday’s game against Orlando. Bryant rolled his ankle in Saturday’s win over Dallas and has been reportedly receiving treatment on the ankle non-stop. Bryant is putting up 25 points per game and oddsmakers have yet to post a line for the game with his status up in the air.
-- The New Jersey Nets will welcome All-Star point guard Deron Williams back to the lineup when they take on the Boston Celtics Monday. Williams, who averages better than 15 points and rebounds per game, missed the last two contests due to the birth of his fourth child over the weekend. The team didn’t miss a beat without him, winning and covering against the Warriors and Clippers, to push the team’s winning streak to four games. New Jersey has dropped its last two meetings against the Celtics both straight up and against the spread and is pegged as a 5-point underdog for Monday’s game.
-- Kevin Love's double-double streak ends against Warriors. Stephen Curry had 24 points and nine rebounds, and the Golden State Warriors ended Kevin Love's four-month run of consecutive double-doubles in a 100-77 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday night. Monta Ellis and Dorell Wright added 16 points apiece for Golden State, which has already won four more games under first-year coach Keith Smart than it did last season. Love had 12 rebounds but scored only six points on 1-of-6 shooting, ending his streak of double-doubles at 53 games. It was the NBA's longest streak since Elvin Hayes did it in 55 consecutive games in 1973-74.
-- Celtics hold Bucks to franchise-best 56 points in win. Ray Allen and the Boston Celtics take a lot of pride in their defense, so this one was a gem. For Milwaukee Bucks coach Scott Skiles, it was embarrassing. Allen scored 17 points in just three quarters and the Celtics set a franchise record for fewest points allowed in the shot-clock era, routing the Bucks 87-56 on Sunday. It was the lowest score against the Celtics since they beat the Milwaukee Hawks 62-57 at Providence, R.I., on Feb. 27, 1955. The Bucks, who joined the NBA before the 1968-69 season, set a franchise record for fewest points. The Celtics held the Bucks to just 38 points through three quarters an NBA record according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
__________________________________________________ ____________
*** #501 BOSTON (-5, O/U 188) @ #502 NEW JERSEY ***
---------------------------------------------------------------------
A record-setting defensive effort gave the Boston Celtics back some momentum. They've had plenty of it against the New Jersey Nets in recent years. The visiting Celtics attempt to stay alone atop the Eastern Conference by sweeping the season series from the Nets, who are expected to have Deron Williams back on the floor Monday night. Boston (47-17), which has already clinched a playoff berth, leads the East by one-half game over second-place Chicago. The Celtics reclaimed sole possession of the conference lead Sunday by avoiding a three-game losing streak. They routed Milwaukee 87-56, setting a franchise record for fewest points allowed in the shot-clock era by limiting the Bucks to 31.4 percent shooting.
"I think playing defense perfectly is our goal," said guard Ray Allen, who had 17 points Sunday after being held to a season-low five in an 89-86 loss at Philadelphia two nights prior. "That's what we shoot for, but a team can still score while you're doing that." The Celtics have won 15 of 16 meetings with the Nets (21-43) dating to the 2006-07 season. They've taken all three matchups in 2010-11, holding New Jersey to a paltry 79.3 points per game. Boston won the most recent contest 100-75 on Dec. 5 in Newark, limiting the Nets' starters to 28 points. Sweeping the season series won't necessarily be a given with the return of Williams, who missed the last two games as his wife gave birth to their fourth child in Dallas.
The point guard is averaging 15.8 points and 15.2 assists in five games since the Nets acquired him from Utah last month. He's averaged 17.2 points and 9.0 assists in his last nine meetings with Boston, all with the Jazz. The Nets continued their recent improved play even without Williams, winning both games he missed to push their streak to four. They haven't won five in a row since Dec. 28, 2007-Jan. 5, 2008. Jordan Farmar had a season-high 24 points with seven assists starting in Williams' place Friday as New Jersey erased a 20-point deficit in a 102-98 overtime home win over the Los Angeles Clippers.
"This is what you dream of, to play in the NBA ... be the one making the plays, taking big shots," Farmar said. "I just tried to step up for my teammates. Deron wasn't here, had a beautiful addition to his family, so I got a chance to play and it was good for me, good for us." Center Brook Lopez has been excellent over his last five games, averaging 27.4 points while shooting 55.9 percent. He hasn't been nearly as productive in the season series with Boston, scoring 13.0 points per game. Boston's Paul Pierce scored 31 points in a 94-80 home win over the Nets on Feb. 16. However, he's totaled 25 points over his last two games overall.
--NEW JERSEY is 37-17 UNDER (+18.3 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW JERSEY 46.8, OPPONENT 49.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 30-11 UNDER (+17.9 Units) in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 95.1, OPPONENT 90.1 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 8; O/U 188.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -8.37
______________________________________
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the money line (BOSTON) - a good defensive team (88-92 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 175 points or less.
(97-17 since 1996.) (85.1%, +51.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -268.2
The average score in these games was: Team 101.5, Opponent 91.4 (Average point differential = +10)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1, -1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-3, +11.8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (41-7, +21.5 units).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (BOSTON) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(39-13 since 1996.) (75.0%, +24.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.9
The average score in these games was: Team 90.7, Opponent 88.4 (Total points scored = 179.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28 (54.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-1).
___________________________________________
*** #503 OKLAHOMA CITY (NL) @ #504 WASHINGTON ***
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Oklahoma City Thunder can't be accused of taking lesser opponents lightly. They'll try to continue that with a matchup against one of the NBA's worst teams. Possibly having Kendrick Perkins healthy should help. With Perkins possibly making his team debut, the Thunder look to continue their success against opponents with losing records when they visit the Washington Wizards on Monday night. Oklahoma City (42-23) leads the Northwest Division by 3 1/2 games over Denver partly due to a 22-4 record against teams under .500. That success includes a 124-117 double-overtime victory against the Wizards (16-48) on Jan. 28, its fourth straight win in the series.
The Thunder continued their dominance versus inferior opponents with Sunday's 95-75 rout at Cleveland to win for the sixth time in seven games after a three-game losing streak to teams with winning records. After visiting the nation's capital, Oklahoma City will be in for another major test Wednesday when it concludes this three-game trip at Southeast Division-leading Miami. Possibly having Perkins available ahead of that matchup could prove valuable. The center has a strained MCL that has forced him to miss nine games, eight since being acquired in a four-player trade with Boston on Feb. 24.
Perkins should help solidify Oklahoma City's defense, while also providing a strong presence on the boards. He's averaged 8.0 rebounds over three seasons with the Celtics including playoffs. The Thunder are one of the top offensive teams in the league, and are averaging 108.0 points over the last seven games. They've been even better in the past three meetings with Washington, scoring 120.3 per contest. All-Star Russell Westbrook notched his fifth career, and most recent triple-double against the Wizards in January, scoring 35 points with 13 rebounds and 13 assists. "Once he gets it going, he's tough to stop," forward Kevin Durant said.
Westbrook came up big Sunday, scoring 14 of his 20 points in the third quarter as Oklahoma City pulled away and was afforded the chance to rest him and Durant in the fourth quarter. Durant, who finished with 19 points against the Cavaliers, leads the NBA at 28.0 points per game. He had 40 points in the latest matchup with Washington, and is averaging 33.4 over the past five. The Wizards have dropped 10 of 11 after falling 122-101 to the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday.
"We know it's a rebuilding process right now and there's going to be ups and downs," guard John Wall said. "I hoped this year would be better but it's tough right now. All we can try to do is finish strong." Wall has been one of the few bright spots for Washington, leading all rookies with an average of 8.8 assists. His 15.7 points per game is only behind by the Clippers' Blake Griffin (22.6) among rookies. Wall, though, struggled mightily with his shot against the Thunder in January, connecting on 5 of 19 field goals, 1 of 4 from 3-point range to finish with 13 points. He also had 10 assists and five rebounds.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oklahoma City by 9; O/U 209
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Oklahoma City -10
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Oklahoma City -6.88
__________________________________________
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Underdogs of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.
(42-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.4%, +27.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (4-53 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 11.4
The average score in these games was: Team 96.7, Opponent 105.3 (Average point differential = -8.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (35.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-10).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (101-64).
___________________________________
*** #505 SAN ANTONIO @ #506 MIAMI (-4, O/U 199) ***
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
The Miami Heat hit a low point during their five-game losing streak earlier this month when the San Antonio Spurs handed them a 30-point defeat. With their skid behind them, they'll be looking for some revenge. Miami hosts San Antonio on Monday night in another showdown between two of the NBA's top teams. The Heat fell 125-95 on March 4 at San Antonio in a game that was never seriously in doubt after Miami got outscored 36-12 in the first quarter. The Heat (45-21) dropped their following two games to a pair of other division leaders Chicago and Boston, before finally ending their skid Thursday with a 94-88 victory to cap a season sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers.
After Sunday's 118-85 rout of Memphis, they seem to be back on track to challenge for the Eastern Conference's top spot. Miami is currently three games behind the first-place Celtics, and 2 1/2 games back of the Bulls. "Anytime that we can have a good team effort, that's always great," said Chris Bosh, who had 18 points and 10 rebounds against the Grizzlies. "But the fact that we had a big lead after halftime and we held it, that's what I'm most happy with." Dwyane Wade finished with 28 points, nine assists, five rebounds and five blocks. LeBron James added 27 points and Mike Bibby hit 5 of 5 3-pointers en route to 17 points off the bench.
Wade struggled a bit in the last meeting with San Antonio, scoring 19 points but shooting 8 of 18 with a game-high five turnovers. James led all scorers with 26 points, while Bosh had 17 and 14 rebounds. Sunday's victory against Memphis improved the Heat to only 15-18 against teams .500 or better, but beating the Spurs could change any perception that they can't beat the league's elite. League-leading San Antonio (54-12), which is seven games ahead of second-place Dallas in the Western Conference, beat Houston 115-107 on Saturday for its third straight win. "It was a great win and a very physical game," said Tony Parker, who scored a team-high 21 points. "We made the big stops and shots at the end."
The Spurs made plenty of big shots against the Heat in their last meeting, hitting eight 3-pointers in the first quarter en route to a franchise-record 17 from long range. Eight Spurs scored in double figures, led by 20 points from Manu Ginobili. Despite winning all three games, the defensive-minded Spurs have allowed more than 100 points in three straight contests for the first time since doing it in five consecutive games Dec. 16-23. However, the Heat haven't scored more than 100 versus San Antonio since a 115-114 overtime loss at home Jan. 20, 1995. The Spurs hold a 34-13 edge in the all-time series, including four straight wins. Miami will be without center Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who is out indefinitely with an infected foot.
--SAN ANTONIO is 59-24 UNDER (+32.6 Units) the 1rst half total after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 47.0, OPPONENT 44.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 49.5, OPPONENT 52.3 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 1.5; O/U 199.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -2.87
_______________________________________
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more.
(25-5 since 1996.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (18-13)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.4
The average score in these games was: Team 103.1, Opponent 102.2 (Average point differential = +0.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (54.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - off a win against a division rival against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins.
(98-20 since 1996.) (83.1%, +50.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -237.2
The average score in these games was: Team 100.8, Opponent 92.2 (Average point differential = +8.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2, +7.8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (29-4, +13.3 units).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, in non-conference games.
(43-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.4%, +27.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.7, Opponent 47.3 (Average first half point differential = +6.5)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (70-47).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (MIAMI) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games.
(49-18 since 1996.) (73.1%, +29.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.9, Opponent 47.5 (Total first half points scored = 94.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-9).
___________________________________________
*** #507 DENVER @ #508 NEW ORLEANS (NL) ***
--------------------------------------------------------------
Despite sitting out two games while recovering from a mild concussion, Chris Paul turned in his best performance of the season in his return to the New Orleans Hornets. Paul looks to build on that effort and help the Hornets inch closer to the Denver Nuggets when they meet Monday night at New Orleans Arena. Paul had been out since slamming his head into the shoulder of Cleveland's Ramon Sessions last Sunday. The four-time All-Star point guard returned to practice Thursday, and coach Monty Williams put him in the starting lineup shortly before Saturday's game against Sacramento.
Paul appeared completely unaffected by the time off, finishing with a season-best 33 points to go with 15 assists, seven rebounds and five steals in New Orleans' 115-103 win. "I'm never surprised by those kinds of numbers," Williams said. "That's what he's capable of doing. Scoring 33 points is probably a little high for him, but he's capable of that. When he's able to push the ball in transition and knock down his jumper, he can do that more often than people think." Paul sparked a Hornets team that recorded its highest-scoring game of the season. David West added 25 points and shot 12 of 18 while Carl Landry scored 20 for the Hornets (39-29), who won for the fourth time in five games.
New Orleans passed Portland for sixth place in the Western Conference. New Orleans is one game back of the fifth-place Nuggets (39-27), though it would remain percentage points behind them even with a victory Monday. The Hornets have won the first two meetings between the teams and are seeking their first season sweep in the series since moving to the West in 2004-05. Paul led the Hornets with 18 points, seven assists and seven rebounds in a 101-95 home win over the Nuggets on Oct. 29, and had a team-high 20 points with six assists in a 96-87 victory in Denver on Jan. 9.
The Nuggets are opening a four-game road trip after defeating Detroit 131-101 on Saturday, their seventh win in nine games since the Carmelo Anthony trade Feb. 22. J.R. Smith led eight Denver players in double figures, scoring 21 of his season-best 31 points in the fourth quarter. Smith finally listened to the advice of his teammates and trusted his long-range shooting. He finished with a season-high nine 3-pointers on 16 attempts. "Everybody's been telling me to catch and shoot and stop trying to make plays off the dribble," said Smith, who had averaged 8.3 points while going 3 of 11 from beyond the arc in his previous three games.
"The last month and a half, two months, I've been passing up a lot of open 3s to get to the basket. Everybody wants me to catch and shoot, so that's what I did." It could be tough for Smith to again find success from the perimeter, however. New Orleans has limited opponents to 25.5 percent from 3-point range in the last three games. If Smith has trouble, the Nuggets can look into the post, as Nene has averaged 21.7 points and shot 76.5 percent in his last three contests. Nene totaled 18 points in the first two games of the season against the Hornets.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New Orleans by 3.5; O/U 202
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Denver -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New Orleans -1.13
___________________________________________
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (NEW ORLEANS) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season.
(30-8 since 1996.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.6, Opponent 47.1 (Average first half point differential = +1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
