Monday 11/16/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Texans at Bengals

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-11.5, 47)

One of three undefeated teams still standing in the NFL, the Cincinnati Bengals look to extend their perfect run to nine games when they host the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football. The Bengals entered the weekend with a 3 1/2-game cushion over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North and have had 10 days off since demolishing Cleveland 31-10 on Nov. 5.

“We’ve put ourselves in the position that we’re in and there aren’t a lot of teams that get to 8-0," Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton said. "We’ve got to keep pushing and keep the same mentality that we’ve had the first half of the season and do whatever we can to keep winning these games in the second half." It marks the second of three straight prime-time matchups for the Bengals, who visit NFC West-leading Arizona on Nov. 22. Houston stumbled out of the gate with four losses in its first five games and has already changed starting quarterbacks twice. Brian Hoyer reclaimed the job and led the Texans to two wins in three games before last week's bye.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened as 10.5-point home favorites and have been bet up to -11.5. The total has held steady at the opening number of 47.

INJURY REPORT:

Texans - WR N. Washington (probable Monday, hip), RB C. Polk (probable Monday, knee), WR C. Shorts (probable Monday, hamstring), LB B. McKinney (questionable Monday, concussion), LB A. Dent (questionable Monday, hamstring), T D. Brown (questionable Monday, concussion), LB J. Clowney (doubtful Monday, back), DB K. Jackson (out Sunday, ankle).

Bengals - DT M. Hardison (questionable Monday, knee), LB R. Maualuga (questionable Monday, questionable Monday, calf), T A. Smith (questionable Monday, concussion).

WEATHER REPORT: There will be 15-30 percent chance of rain for the Monday nighter in Cincinnati. Temperatures will be in the mid 50's with a five mile per hour wind blowing towards the northwest end zone.

POWER RANKINGS: Texans (3.5) - Bengals (-7) + home field (-3) = Bengals -13.5

ABOUT THE TEXANS (3-5, 3-5 ATS, 5-2-1 O/U): Houston's three victories have come at the expense of teams who are a combined 7-15, but it entered the weekend sitting a half-game behind first-place Indianapolis in the AFC South. Hoyer lost his starting job in Week 1 but has provided some stability by throwing for at least two scoring passes in a club-record five straight games and has one of the league's top receivers in DeAndre Hopkins, who has 66 receptions for 870 yards and six touchdowns. The running game has been anemic since the loss of Arian Foster and the defense will be without former No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (8-0, 7-0-1 ATS, 5-3 O/U): If not for the play of New England's Tom Brady, Dalton would be the front-runner for MVP honors after throwing 18 touchdowns against only four interceptions while compiling a career-best 111.0 passer rating - second only to Brady. Wideout A.J. Green has 50 receptions and four touchdowns, but perhaps the biggest boost for Cincinnati's offense in the emergence of tight end Tyler Eifert, who had nine scoring passes among his 37 catches. Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill continue to share time in the backfield while the defense is permitting only 17.8 points and has notched 23 sacks.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Bengals last six games in November.
* Over is 4-1 in Texans last five games overall.
* Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games versus the AFC.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-nine percent of wagers are backing the Bengals for this Monday Night matchup. The public is also think it will be a high scoring affair with 58 percent of wagers on the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 10

Texans (3-5) @ Bengals (8-0)-- Unbeaten Bengals are 7-0-1 vs spread this season, 3-0-1 at home; four of eight wins are by 6 or less points. Texans still have shot at the playoffs with Indy QB Luck hurt; they're 1-3 as road underdogs, losing by 7-27-18 on foreign soil, with only win at Jax'ville. Houston allowed 24+ points in all five losses; two of their three wins are vs rookie QBs. Texans won five of last six series games, winning 28-17/20-19 last two played here- last visit was in '11. Texans won three of last four post-bye games; they're 3-5 as a post-bye underdog. Teams are 2-4 the week after playing Cleveland. Bengals played on Thursday last week, so this was semi-bye for them, too. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 3-5 vs spread; AFC North favorites are 6-5, 3-3 at home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 10
By Bruce Marshall

Monday, Nov. 16

HOUSTON at CINCINNATI (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Cincy now 7-0-1 vs. line TY after win over Browns. Also "over" 13-7 last 20 as host. Texans "over" 6-2-1 last seven.
Tech Edge: Bengals and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday Night Football Picks: Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals Odds
by Alan Matthews

Houston was on the bye in Week 9, yet by doing nothing its chances to win the division got much, much better. The Texans (3-5) trail the Indianapolis Colts by a half-game in the putrid AFC South. Indy (4-5) upset Denver on Sunday, but Tuesday the Colts learned that star quarterback Andrew Luck will miss likely a month with a lacerated kidney. No team benefits more from that than Houston because the Jaguars and Titans aren't good enough to challenge for the South title yet even though it may only take six wins. Good luck finding AFC South futures, however, as the books have taken them down until there's more clarity on Luck.


As for Cincinnati, which is 8-0 for the first time in franchise history, it also caught a break this week when it was learned that Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger would miss at least one game with a foot injury. The Bengals already lead the second-place Steelers by 3.5 games in the AFC North, so Big Ben's health probably wouldn't have mattered. Cincy now needs to focus on getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC over New England (8-0) and possibly Denver (7-1).

Sportsbooks offers two specials that involve the Bengals this week. That any team finishes the season 16-0 is +250 and "no" at -400. Of course, that also applies to New England and Carolina. That Cincinnati does it is +1500 with no at -3000. I'd certainly rate the Bengals' schedule as harder than the Pats or Cats. Cincy finishes: at Arizona, vs. St. Louis, at Cleveland, vs. Pittsburgh (Big Ben will be back by then), at San Francisco, at Denver, vs. Baltimore. The Bengals are +450 to be the final unbeaten team left with the Patriots at -235 and Panthers +400. I do think Cincy loses next week at Arizona.

Texans at Bengals Betting Story Lines

Houston is pretty healthy off its bye week. Receiver Cecil Shorts missed the final two games before the bye but will return. Left tackle Duane Brown also will play after suffering a concussion in Week 8. However, top cornerback Kareem Jackson hasn't played since Week 6 due to an ankle injury and won't here. The Texans have yet to win back-to-back games this season but are off a Week 8 20-6 win over Tennessee. That was their first game since losing star running back Arian Foster to a season-ending injury. Houston had only 56 yards on 23 carries vs. the Titans without him.

Sportsbooks are also offing a Week 10 special that affects Houston. The site lists J.J. Watt as the +150 favorite to lead the NFL in sacks. Watt has 8.5, one behind New England's Chandler Jones (+175). Watt is on pace to join the great Reggie White as the only players with three 17-sack seasons since the statistic became official 33 years ago.

The Bengals had little trouble last Thursday in beating visiting Cleveland 31-10. I thought that might be a bit of a trap game off a big win in Pittsburgh. Cincy tight end Tyler Eifert has become a fantasy football monster as he had three TD catches in that game. He leads the NFL with nine touchdown catches and is on track to tie Rob Gronkowski's single-season tight end record for total touchdowns (18 in 2011) and surpass Carl Pickens' single-season club mark for touchdowns (17 in 1995). The win improved Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton to 4-7 in prime-time games. His numbers had been way worse at night than in day games but he was great vs. the Browns.

Cincinnati ended a five-game losing streak in this series (playoffs included) with a 22-13 win in Houston in Week 12 last year. Dalton threw for 233 yards and a score with an interception. A.J. Green caught 12 of those passes for 121 yards. Jeremy Hill had 87 yards and a TD on 18 carries. Ryan Mallett, released earlier this season, was making his second career start for Houston in that one. He completed only 21-for-45 for 189 yards and a pick. Like now, the Texans didn't have an injured Foster. Their only TD was on a Johnathan Joseph 60-yard INT return.

Texans at Bengals Odds and Trends

Cincinnati is a 12-point favorite (+110) with a total of 47. The Bengals are -500 on the moneyline and Texans +400. On the alternate lines, Cincy is -11.5 (+105), -11 (-102), -10.5 (-110), -10 (-120) and -9.5 (-130). Houston is 3-5 against the spread this season (1-3 on road) and 5-2-1 "over/under" (3-0-1 on road). Cincinnati is 7-0-1 ATS (3-0-1 at home) and 5-3 O/U (2-2 at home).

Houston has covered just three of its past 16 after a win. It is 0-7 ATS in its past seven Monday games. The Bengals have failed to cover once in the past 10 at home vs. teams with a losing road record. They are 7-0 ATS in their past seven vs. the AFC. The over is 5-1 in Houston's past six vs. the AFC. The under is 6-0 in Cincy's past six in November. The over is 7-2 in its past nine at home against teams with a losing road record. Houston is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings.

Monday Night Football Picks: Texans at Bengals Betting Predictions

In four career games against the Texans, including the playoffs, Dalton has a 1-3 record, two touchdowns, six turnovers and seven sacks. All five of the Texans' interceptions against Dalton were on passes intended for Green. But this Bengals team has many more weapons, and Dalton is a better QB. Still, 12 points is a lot to give a team off a bye. Houston is also getting a couple of key guys back healthy. I'd probably give 9.5 were it available but not 12. Go under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Perfection on the line'

This weeks Monday Night'r involves an inter-conference battle at Paul Brown Stadium between the host Cincinnati Bengals and the visiting Houston Texans. All appears to be well in Bengal land with the squad playing great football on both sides of the ball going 8-0 (7-0-1 ATS) racking up 28.6 points/game on 391.1 total yard while giving up 349.1 yards and just 17.8 points/contest. Houston rolls into Cinci 3-5 SU/ATS behind 369.4 yards, 21.8 points/game while allowing opponents 25.6 points on 350.9 yards/game. Well to note, the three victories have been against teams with a combined 7-18 SU record on the campaign.

Marvin Lewis' troops have been good bets at home. Since 2013 Bengals have posted a profitable 15-3-2 record against the betting line. Additionally, Bengals are a money-grabbing 14-2 ATS after beating Browns, 6-3-1 ATS last ten as a faves vs the conference. On the other side, Texans' don't help themselves when when looking at certain numbers that are pertinent to the circumstances Monday. Texans have not been good bets under Monday Night Light's. In past seven the teams is 0-7 against the betting line. Another knock, Texans' have failed to cash in four consecutive road games after beating Titans its previous effort.

More football betting ammunition that leans towards Cincinnati. When it comes to the NFL there is no better stage to spotlight a perfect record than in front of a Monday Night home crowd. The last fifteen home favorites carrying an unblemished record into Monday Night Football are 11-4-1 ATS.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dover Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 7:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 94 - Purse:$18000 - 5 YEAR OLDS & UNDER OPEN


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 REMEMBER ME VK 5/2


# 5 SWEET ROCK 5/1


# 4 LITTLE BEN 7/2


REMEMBER ME VK will not be denied the triumph today. Could clearly dominate this grouping given the 99 TrackMaster speed fig achieved in his most recent race. When Wyatt sends this fine animal out you can bet they'll be in the money, numbers show them there 78 percent of the time. SWEET ROCK - Good for a win wager just off the outstanding prior class rankings. Have to like this fine animal. Can't pass over the connections here, a 26 winning percent, one of the finest at getting into the winners circle. LITTLE BEN - The 4 hole is on fire here at Dover Downs. More wins than normal. Could surprise us at a reasonable price. Don't leave out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Post: 10:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 75 - Purse:$17000 - 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $20,000 LIFETIME.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 TWIN B SPORTSMAN 2/1


# 7 WINDSONG LORD 15/1


# 4 STATE NEWS 15/1


Hard not to favor TWIN B SPORTSMAN as the top choice in here. His 78 average has this gelding among the best speed figures in this one. He has really strong class numbers, averaging 75. Worth considering for a bet in this contest. Could beat this group, just look at the speed fig - 81 - from his last race. WINDSONG LORD - Sometimes you just have to go with good vibrations, favor this one's chances. STATE NEWS - Definitely think these two have a special working relationship. Krick sending the horse out means a good chance to get the win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 62

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $13,000 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 HAUDENOSAUNEE 3/1


# 3 BOY NAMED TISH 4/1


# 4 CALL THE LORD 5/2


My choice in this event is HAUDENOSAUNEE. Is tough not to look at based on speed figs which have been decent - 51 avg - of late. Could beat this group given the 52 Equibase Speed Figure posted in his last outing. Has to be carefully examined against this group of horses in this race displaying decent figures lately and an average speed figure of 52 under similar conditions. BOY NAMED TISH - Is hard not to look at based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been decent - 51 avg - of late. Wagerers should note that this animal runs with second time Lasix today. CALL THE LORD - Expect a speed boost today from this horse going on blinkers. Davila will most likely be able to get this colt to break out sharply in this contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $24500 Class Rating: 59

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 JEZABEL'S CHARM 8/5


# 4 CLAMPET GIRL 7/2


# 5 ANGELOFTHEMORNING 12/1


I think JEZABEL'S CHARM is a formidable choice. She has to be considered given the formidable speed figs. The speed figure of 64 from her latest contest looks decent in here. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the strongest class figs of this group of animals. CLAMPET GIRL - Has decent early speed and will probably fare solidly versus this group. Must be given a chance - I like the figs from the last race. ANGELOFTHEMORNING - Going on blinkers can produce noticeable speed increases. Gonzalez has recent ROI figs which make this one a good bet.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 12:52pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 WEST TERRACE (ML=4/1)


WEST TERRACE - I like to play this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a strong effort within the last month. This equine wins a lot of money per start. At the top in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SPIRIT IN THE NITE (ML=5/2), #6 WIN WISH (ML=7/2), #1 POWER GENERATION (ML=5/1),

SPIRIT IN THE NITE - Trying to beat this participant today at the value of 5/2. WIN WISH - I cannot play this perpetual non-winner. Gets the task executed occasionally. This mount ran a disappointing rating last time around the track. He shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's race running that rating. POWER GENERATION - Garnered a quite unimpressive speed rating in the last race in a $10,000 Maiden Claiming race on November 2nd. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that number. I checked out his past performances and he hasn't done well out of the one slot.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #9 WEST TERRACE to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #3 - Post: 1:48pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 HEAVEN'S BARGAIN (ML=4/1)
#7 OUR VALID TWIRL (ML=7/2)


HEAVEN'S BARGAIN - Looking at the information on all of these horses, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a long hard look at this horse. Strong return on investment for this jockey and trainer tandem. That 81 fig this mare garnered in her last affair tells me she's a big time player this time around. OUR VALID TWIRL - This mare should be in tip-top shape, this far into her form cycle. Ranked number 1 in earnings per start. Another indicator that this animal is the class of the race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 YUMA THURMAN (ML=5/2), #1 ROYAL KINGDOM (ML=3/1), #5 BERRY VALID (ML=7/2),

YUMA THURMAN - Unlikely that the rating she garnered on October 25th will be enough in this race. ROYAL KINGDOM - Would have to get much more than the morning line odds of 3/1 to play this thoroughbred. BERRY VALID - You think this equine is going to be victorious just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish on top often.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #2 HEAVEN'S BARGAIN on top if we're getting at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Monday 11/16 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 4,6/3,5,8/1,4,5/1/1,2,6 = $10.80

EARLY PICK 4: 1/1,4,5/2,4,5/1,6,7,8,10 = $45

LATE PICK 4: 1,6,7,8,10/1,8,10/2.5/5,6 = $60

MEET STATS: 73 - 261 / $338.20 BEST BETS: 13 - 23 / $44.20

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 23 / $63.00

Best Bet: LAY LADY LAY (4th)

Spot Play: SHOCKING IMAGE (6th)


Race 1

(4) ON THE ROCKS chased down a loose leader in deep stretch last time out and fits this class well. He should get some pace to chase here, too. (6) IMKEEPNTHISGUY continues to motor home every week and will be the one to fend off late. (5) SPORTS WARNING returns off a promising qualifier and may have whatever issues that were keeping him on the sidelines cured.

Race 2

(5) HAILEYSGONEDANCING was conservatively driven last week after winning an opening leg two starts back. Expect some Jackie Mo aggression here in this final. (3) TYMAL TEMPEST was allowed to cut a 1:00 4/5 middle half while beating the choice last week. That is unlikely to happen here, but she is the main danger. (8) LIBERTY LANE had a long trip when third to the two above and has upset possibilities here.

Race 3

(1) TOTALLY RIPPED made a first-over move and provided nice cover for the winner last time. The addition of Lasix here may put him over the top. (5) LEXUS ROCKY class drops and should be much more competitive. (4) GAME ON HANOVER won several times on this circuit earlier this year and looks like she's back on track based on her last two starts; beware.

Race 4

(1) LAY LADY LAY is clearly the top filly in this series and will be very tough to beat leaving from the inside. (4) STARTLED woke up last week with a good late charge and could get a good setup here and crack the exotics at a big price. (8) LADY MARINA was a strong 2nd to the choice last week but this post won't help her cause.

Race 5

(2) PRINCE CLYDE takes a big class drop here and looks tough to beat. (1) SOMEWHERE FANCY has been facing better down south and looks like the other main contender in a race with few. (6) REASONABLE FORCE should be placed better early leaving from the middle of the gate which gives him a puncher's chance of upsetting the top two.

Race 6

(4) SHOCKING IMAGE set some big fractions early last time then finished evenly. He could get things his own way here and wire this group. (5) HES GONE BAD will get pushed early by Hudon one of these weeks and when he does he will be right there at the wire. (2) REGAL FAME's comeback effort from the 10-hole wasn't horrible. He should improve sharply.

Race 7

(6) IL SOGNO DREAM is the class of this group and will likely take his third straight. (1) SLIP INTO GLIDE showed little on a speed-biased track last week but should get placed closer early; using. (8) CATCH THE DREAM fires home quickly every week. Any mid-race battling helps him.

Race 8

(10) IDOLE DUHARAS drops back to the class he was claimed from and should be formidable. (8) ALWAYS THERE goes first off the claim and could improve. (1) MACH TWO POINT SIX won last time he shipped in to Woodbine. Don't sell this one short.

Race 9

(2) TWIN B SPORTSMAN cut some big fractions last week and just failed to hold on. More careful rating gets the job done here. (5) MANNY IN SPORTS returns from a break to face much easier. He should be right in the mix. (1) HP BLACK SHADOW should get a good following trip here and can share.

Race 10

(5) CLIFF DRUMMOND ships in from Quebec in good form. Moreau won with one with a similar profile last week. Expect a big drop in time here. (6) THEPANINSULAHOTEL drops to the lowest level and should be respected here. (1) MILLIONDOLLARCELL can get a good piece of this if he reverts to the tactics used two back. (8) SAVANNAH SPLENDOR should share from close range. (4) ZINGERS LAUGH has raced well in both starts on the big circuit and can better this placing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 11/16 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

MEET STATS: 227 - 1083 / $1,560.90 BEST BETS: 28 - 90 / $121.70


Best Bet: BIG BAD BOSSMAN (5th)

Spot Play: BS TYRICHESS (12th)


Race 1

(3) TRIGGER FINGER moves down a bit in class and that should help his chances against this group; did put in a mild rally so he has every right to move forward. (4) AMERICAN CHAMP gets serious post relief; was third best three starts ago and has tactical speed; threat. (8) IMPRUDENT SPEED Maine invader scored in his last two; post hurts but is quite capable; watch out.

Race 2

(6) HOT PATOOTIE rallied strongly to nail down the fourth spot in her first try at the Hilltop; with a return to her November 1st trip, it could be game over for the rest of these. (3) SEA ROSE is knocking at the door based on her last three starts; main danger. (2) TRACEYS DESIRE just missed the victory by only a head last time around; beware.

Race 3

(1) SODYS MOONSHINE moves back inside for this event; old pro got the job done two starts ago; capable of taking these to task for all the cash. (2) OUTA MY HEAD also receives a better slot; flashed speed three trips back; dangerous. (3) ARTHUR will be closing in the final strides.

Race 4

(7) SOUTHWIND MISCHIEF showed signs of life last time out; good to see Brennan stays in the bike and this gal can boss these at her best. (3) GIRLLOOKATTHATBODY Game effort for win honors last time around; two straight is clearly not out of the question. (1) E TICKET RIDE retains the rail slot for the third straight time; could have a say in the outcome.

Race 5

(2) BIG BAD BOSSMAN is on fire getting the job done for his fifth score in a row; moves up the scale, but his form is so strong, he can keep on his winning ways tonight. (4) OUR CULLENSCROWN N Jersey invader could make some noise in deep stretch. (6) HOT RODDY Gelding fits with these and was very game two trips ago; beware.

Race 6

(6) GREYSTONE CASH was sharp two starts back; did not fire last out but this gelding catches a weak group of pacers; can get it done with Brennan at the helm. (2) ALL FIRED UP showed good speed in his latest and moves down in class; main danger. (1) MCCEDES moves to the rail slot with some early zip; steps up in class but is very capable so watch out.

Race 7

(4) COSMICPEDIA has hit the board 13 of 17 trips to the post; 7-year-old could boss these with a favorable trip. (5) FOUR BOYS Gelding led every step of the way but tired in deep stretch last time around; contender. (1) I SCOOT SAM was late on the scene to nail down the placing recently; not out of this.

Race 8

(2) BIG BAMBU Gelding was caught for the score last time out; if this pacer gets a favorable trip, the rest will have to settle for second money. (3) REPORT FOR DUTY N 13-year-old is 0 for 28 this year; put in a sharp effort for the placing last out; could have a say. (1) CUNDALINI closed strongly for the show spot last time around; not out of this.

Race 9

(7) FAN OF TERROR Sharp in victory for his third straight score; has very good speed and could continue on his winning ways. (3) BULLVILLE KYLE Gelding put in a mild rally for fourth spot recently; could make some noise in deep stretch. (1) CARD SHOCK gets post relief and that should help his cause; maybe.

Race 10

(1) GIVENUPDREAMING has pulled off two straight victories. Very consistent pacer moves to the fence and Brennan returns in the bike; three-peat is quite possible. (3) BUBBIE BOY returns to the NW$8k ranks and has tactical speed; big threat. (4) CHANTEPLEURE came close to getting the job done missing the score by only a neck; dangerous.

Race 11

(4) MISSISSIPPI HIPPY Gelding showed life in his last start; seems this guy is heading in the right direction; threat to boss these. (6) TWIN B SCANDAL is on a roll scoring his fourth in a row; clearly must be considered again. (7) CLASSIC GENT moves down in class for this one; post should not be a problem so beware.

Race 12

(2) BS TYRICHESS did not fire in her latest but this pacing miss fits with these; has every right to make tonight a winning one if she gets a favorable trip. (1) SOUTHWIND LEA's last one was a dud but did score two straight victories on October 5 & 19 respectably; capable. (4) MYDELIGHT BLUECHIP will be closing in the final strides so watch out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Finger Lakes (5th) Unforced, 7-2
(9th) Jen's Miracle, 7-2


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Perfect Puma, 5-1
(9th) Rebel Road, 7-2


Parx Racing (3rd) Nick's Posse, 6-1
(5th) Backwater Blues, 4-1


Turf Paradise (3rd) Heaven's Bargain, 4-1
(4th) Dollemma, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
six most popular picks in Week 10 season record: 30-29-2

6) Seahawks -3 (411)-- Chance to get back in contention in NFC West L

5) Chiefs +6 (426)-- KC lost first meeting with Denver in last minute. W.

4) Redskins even (448)-- New Orleans hasn't had their bye week yet. W

3) Jaguars +5.5 (466)-- Not a lot of faith in the Ravens here. W

2) Raiders -3 (520)-- Scored 34+ points in each of last three games. L

1) Titans +5.5 (620)-- Letdown spot for unbeaten Carolina? . L

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Monday

567 NORTHERN ARIZONA at 568 BOISE STATE 9:00 PM

Take: BOISE STATE -16

It’s not surprising to see Northern Arizona out of the gate with a loss. The Lumberjacks have enough talent to win their share of Big Sky games later this season. But they figure to have some tough times against superior opposition early. That was the case on Saturday as they were handled pretty easily at Washington State and I suspect NAU is in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight.

Boise State is rated as one of the top two teams in the Mountain West. The Broncos are a pretty talented bunch and while the MWC as a whole is not a great league, this is a solid squad that has a very good chance to get back to the NCAA Tournament.

The Broncos might also be in a bit of a foul mood after losing their opener on Saturday at Montana. It’s hard to believe that Boise State lost when glancing at some of their stats from that game. It’s not often you’ll see a team on the short end of the final score when they go 20/24, 83% on their two-point field goal attempts. Boise State didn’t shoot the three-ball particularly well, but Montana was actually even worse in that category. But the Grizzlies had an enormous edge at the foul line, and then there’s this. Montana attempted 15 two-point baskets in this game. They made all but one. That’s right, 14/15, 93%.

But the real key to what happened here was at the free throw line. There are frequently games that will end up with a big disparity in free throws because the team that’s behind has to keep fouling in an effort to catch up. That was absolutely not the case here as Boise State was the team that had the lead. Montana didn’t earn it’s first second half lead until they went up 70-69 with two minutes remaining.

To me, that makes the final free throw stats in the game amazing. Boise State was 8/12. Montana was 25/36. That’s a little ridiculous, and while Broncos head coach Leon Rice won’t use it as an excuse, it’s probably a pretty legitimate one.

I don’t think any of this bodes well for Northern Arizona tonight. The Broncos figure to be seething, and it’s not like they played a bad game at Montana. NAU, in addition to getting handled at Wazzu, also was on the wrong side of a fairly lopsided exhibition loss to Cal Baptist. It looks to me like Northern Arizona could be the hopeless victim tonight and even with the heavy impost, I’m siding with Boise State to inflict some punishment tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Monday, Nov 16, 2015 7:05 PM ET

(501) DALLAS MAVERICKS VS (502) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

Take: (501) DALLAS MAVERICKS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Monday, November 16, 2015 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Philadelphia 76ers. Philadelphia is the only team left in the NBA without a win this season. The Sixers are 0-10 and now have to face one of the tough Western teams. Philly has done a bit better against the spread, covering four of their 10 games. The defense is a big issue, allowing over 100 points in seven of 10 games. Dallas started slowly, winning just three of its first seven games. However, the Mavs have won three straight games, including a 12 point win in their last game at Houston. The Mavs have also covered three straight and four of their last five games. Don't expect home court to really help the Sixers here, as they are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 at the Wells Fargo Center. Still early in the season, but Philly already has to be looking to build for future years as they lose again here on Monday. Take Dallas.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOE WIZ

Morehead St. +12 over Illinois St.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CRAIG DAVIS

My comp play release for Monday is the Dallas Mavericks.

2* PHILADELPHIA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Allen east man

Cincinnati -11

Many people will look at this line and say that it is just too many points. But Cincinnati is just too good at home, and this one looks like a blowout to me. The Bengals have a balanced offense that can beat teams through the air or on the ground. Andy Dalton is having a tremendous season, and he is going to showcase his skills again on MNF. Monday Night Football has not been good for the Texans as they are an awful 0-7 ATS in their last seven MNF games. The Texans are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS win and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game. But this is not a good team, and an extra week off isn't going to change that. Cincinnati blew out Cleveland in a Thursday game last week. So they had extra time to get ready for this one too. The Bengals are 18-6 ATS in home games and 7-0 ATS in their last seven against AFC opponents. Lay the big number here as the home team rolls by three touchdowns.