Monday 10/5/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Delaware Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:45pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 GRACE IS A BEAUTY (ML=8/1)
#4 PRECIOUS FRANCA (ML=5/2)
#2 LADY CON CON (ML=6/1)


GRACE IS A BEAUTY - Rodriguez and Monjes perform well when they partner up. It's hard to beat a +497 ROI for a jock and conditioner. PRECIOUS FRANCA - Have to give this mare a good chance. Ran a sharp outing last time around the track within the last month. Just look at her last figure, 77. That one fits in this bunch. LADY CON CON - Diaz brings her back again. I propose you stay with this hot filly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BRIAR MOJO (ML=9/5), #6 MELODY POMEROY (ML=7/2), #5 KEEP IN MIND (ML=8/1),

BRIAR MOJO - 84/61/47, are the dropping speed figs for this pony. MELODY POMEROY - Really had to show me more than that last time out. Never made much of an impact. The speed fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underpriced contender. KEEP IN MIND - Awfully tough to wager on this runner when she hasn't been showing any gumption of late.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #1 GRACE IS A BEAUTY to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Thistledown - Race #6 - Post: 3:25pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,500 Class Rating: 59

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 LAID BACK LADY (ML=3/1)
#8 CLAMPET GIRL (ML=8/1)


LAID BACK LADY - Feliciano drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping data to figure that this thoroughbred should have a chance to win at this level. This filly ran versus the boys last time. In with her own gender today. This filly's last speed figure is strong enough to score here, I'll bet on her back again this time out. CLAMPET GIRL - Filly's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. Lowry brings her back again. I suggest you stick with this hot filly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 DARK DARLING (ML=7/2), #3 JEZABEL'S CHARM (ML=4/1), #1 PEBBLES PICK (ML=9/2),

DARK DARLING - This mount has been disappointing the public as the favorite time and time again. JEZABEL'S CHARM - This horse hasn't been hitting the board in either of her last couple of efforts. PEBBLES PICK - Don't believe this pony will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's Equibase class figure.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #7 LAID BACK LADY on the win end if we get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [7,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Monday 10/5 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2,3,4,5,7,9/4,5/4/3,6,10/6 = $8.40

EARLY PICK 4: 3,6,10/6/1,3,4/1,4,7,9 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 1,4,7,9/1,2/4,6/2,3,4,8 = $64

MEET STATS: 5 - 10 / 35.70 BEST BETS: 0 - 1 / $0.00

SPOT PLAYS: 1 - 1 / 21.10

Best Bet: NEW YORK NIGHTMARE (3rd)

Spot Play: NATES BUCKY (9th)


Race 1

(9) JAYPORT ON THE EDGE has shown good early speed in his past three which should play well here if he can make the front early; slight nod in a wide-open start to the pick 5. (7) NORTHERN BRUISER can also leave quickly and could get a good trip here. (5) TALBOTCREEK SUZIE is 0-28 but is capable of hitting the ticket vs. this group.

Race 2

(4) BLUSH AND CRUSH and (5) E L ROCK won the two most recent amateur races on this circuit. We'll use those two in the Pick 5 with a slight nod to the former who is in better overall form. (10) DICKS SECRET made a threatening first-up move last time before tiring and could spice up the exotics here.

Race 3

(4) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE is on a roll that doesn't seem likely to be stopped here; Pick 5 single. (1) PIER HO TEMPTATION followed along for 2nd to the choice last time and that trip could be repeated here. (5) DEETZY makes his first start in a claimer and should grab a share here.

Race 4

(3) IMKEEPNTHISGUY has been racing well on the 'B' tracks and trainer Brealey had a sharp winner in the finale on the opening card last Thursday; top call. (6) UNIX HANOVER has made the front immediately the past two times he started with his nose on the gate. He could take these a long way. (10) ROLLING ROCK raced much better than ever before in his season's debut. He could pop at a big price here.

Race 5

(6) STORMONT WIZARD has faced better most of the year and has found a field he should handle here. (5) TYMAL WIZARD raced here last Thursday and lost all chance with a break at the start. He can get a good piece of this if he stays flat. (8) STRIKING IVY faced one two back that has since won two more in a row and last time was in against one of the best sophomore trotting fillies in the country. The easier company should help here.

Race 6

(1) BEAST MODE is one of few in this that has shown he can leave quickly. He may make the front and steal a soft first 1/2 here which would make him very tough to beat. (4) NOTETOSELF HANOVER is another that can leave and has faced better most of the year; contender. (3) JACK RACKHAM was closing fast last time but ran out of racetrack. He could do here if close enough turning home.

Race 7

(1) ROCK ME AMASTREOS lost his cover on the far turn last time when the winner sprinted away. He should make an early move for the front here and try to bottom this field out. (9) BALI has faced better in the top classes out of town and could pop here if he gets an alert start. (4) GRANDKIDS ATTACK has been involved in some rapid early paces his past two starts and should be close early which gives him a chance here.

Race 8

(1) BUZZ made a threatening move around the final turn last time then leveled out when the winner drove away. This group should be more to his liking. (2) ELDORADO OF GOLD S was a sharp maiden-breaker and can't be counted out here. (3) NOBLE POWER is getting closer to a win and is another to consider for the late pick 4.

Race 9

(4) NATES BUCKY got in a blindswitch at the worst time last week and surely would have challenged the winner if not locked in when that one was making his winning move. Henry should get tonight's Spot Play rolling earlier here. (6) LATE NIGHT took a ton of action at the windows but was too far back early from the 10-hole. Expect a more aggressive drive from McNair here. (7) ABSOLUTLY OFFICIAL will take betting action and no doubt offer a minor share, as always in this class.

Race 10

(4) THE ROCK excelled in a new barn and class last week and is a good bet to double up here. (2) ARAZI has blinding early speed which may play better over this track compared to Mohawk. (8) SIERRA MADRE is most likely to capitalize if any speed duels develop. (3) VEGILANTE HANOVER comes off a nice win at Kawartha and could sit a good following trip here just behind the speed. (5) GOLD STAR LAMBEAU will be passing horses late and should make the bottom rung of the Super or High-5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 10/5 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

MEET STATS: 198 - 939 / $1,397.40 BEST BETS: 23 - 79 / $106.00


Best Bet: CAROLS COMET (8th)

Spot Play: NATHAN FEELSGOOD (2nd)


Race 1

(2) WHOLLY LOUY gets a cozy slot to work with; all systems go for him to return to the winner's circle. (4) OUTA MY HEAD Two sharp tries in a row to just miss the victory by only a nose; big threat. (7) BAZILLION closed well to nail down the place spot; watch out.

Race 2

(4) NATHAN FEELSGOOD showed good speed in his last two outings; went downt the road at Vernon two starts ago; can boss these at his best. (2) GIDDY UP DELIGHT put in a mild bid to miss the score by a length and a quarter; main danger. (1) P L FIGHTER gets post relief and that might help his cause; maybe.

Race 3

(1) REPORT FOR DUTY N Gelding flashed good speed in his last try; now moves to the fence and could knock these off down the road. (2) JC KINGDOM Two dull efforts in a row and needs to step it up a bit in order to contend; was second best three starts back. (3) OR rallied strongly to take down the second spot last out; not out of this.

Race 4

(1) STONEBRIDGE TONIC leaves the 7-hole to the rail slot; with a favorable trip, he could take these to task for glory. (2) LONG LIVE ROCK missed the victory by 3/4 of a length; threat. (3) P L HOOFHEARTED has wheeled off two straight victories at Freehold; don't overlook.

Race 5

(3) VICTORIAS MUNKY Sophomore has fine speed and with a fine-timed drive from MacDonald, this gal could get the job done. (1) CAVIART SCARLETT Tough break in her latest but clearly is better than his last try; player with Brennan. (5) YOU CANBEANANGEL has fine speed and could have a say in the outcome.

Race 6

(4) QUICK ART was facing better upstate; he does have good speed and the good news is Brennan signs on to drive; the pick. (5) JUSTA CAMILION Sharp in his last two starts at Freehold; could be a exotics factor in here. (2) TAURANGA put in a good qualifier here last week; could contend.

Race 7

(4) NEPTUNE Sharp late rally to grab the show spot last out; this gelding could top these with a perfect trip. (2) DONT TELL WAYNE gets post relief in here and that could be what he needs to take this. (3) DALLENBACH HANOVER was on the engine and tired in the stretch drive in his last start; should fit with these.

Race 8

(1) CAROLS COMET moves down in class off his sharp effort to miss by a neck last time out; retains the 1-hole and Brennan is in the sulky; ready to boss these. (3) HARD TO MACH surged from dead last to take down the second spot; main danger. (8) GOOD DAY MATE has good speed; post hurts but is quite capable.

Race 9

(1) ADKINS HANOVER Ships in from Canada with early zip and the rail; down the road. (4) KIPPENBERGER N closed well to grab the fourth spot last time out; could have a say. (2) BULLVILLE KYLE raced evenly in his last trip; completes the trifecta.

Race 10

(4) MACS SECURE did not fire in her last start but hey it was from the far outside slot. Three starts back she was quite sharp to miss the score by only a neck; turnaround is not out of the cards. (8) REPEAT PLEASE is knocking at the door based on his last two tries; should be able to handle the 8-hole; we shall see. (1) LISPATTY Philly invader has done quite well picking up checks there; watch out from the fence.

Race 11

(2) FORT KNOX makes his return to Yonkers from Pennsylvania; two tries ago this gelding went down the road for all the glory on September 19; has every right to get the job done against these. (5) OUR DRAGON KING moves down the ladder and that might help his cause; player. (1) KEYSTONE HONOR has put in two show finishes in a row and now has the rail; big factor.

Race 12

(4) ROCKERS ALLEY has put two good efforts and this gal fits well in this event; poised to knock these off with Brennan at the controls. (8) LYONS SHADOW took the pocket route home to victory at Pocono last out; gets a bad slot but is truly capable. (7) UNICORNS N GLITTER is quite consistent in her last three outings; beware.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Delaware Park (3rd) Camp Boreal, 6-1
(8th) Purpose of Life, 6-1


Finger Lakes (1st) Rincon Behr, 6-1
(7th) A Sensational Gal, 6-1


Mountaineer (1st) Shot Girl, 8-1
(8th) Trevor John, 5-1


Parx Racing (9th) Aiken Prep, 8-1
(10th) Gorgeous Sunrise, 6-1

Presque Isle Downs (3rd) I Am the King, 6-1
(6th) Oo de Lally, 3-1


Thistledown (5th) Frontier Warrior, 4-1
(6th) Dark Darling, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday's 6-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
six most popular picks in Week 1 season record: 5-2

6) Broncos, -6.5 (393)-- Didn't score offensive TD in first home game. L

5) Bengals -4 (402)-- Chiefs are visiting after Monday night loss. W

4) Jaguars +9 (403)-- Luck is expected to play despite messed up shoulder. W

3) Giants +5 (483)-- Big Blue hasn't played in New York State since 2007. W

2) Panthers -3 (542)-- Newton didn't play either game against Bucs LY. W

1) Cardinals, -7 (563)-- Arizona bandwagon is filling up. L. (4-2, 15-10)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play MONDAY Under the Total 44 Seahawks/Lions

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Monday, October 5 is:

Los Angeles Dodgers to win National League Pennant.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL DUNKEL

Detroit @ Seattle

Game 277-278
October 5, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
131.650
Seattle
139.274
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 7 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 10
43
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+10); Under