Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Monday
535 OKLAHOMA @ 536 KANSAS 9:00 PM
Take: OKLAHOMA +6.5
Well, here we go. It’s conference season in college basketball, and now is when this sports really gets fun to watch. Not that there’s anything wrong with the early non-league action, especially some of the holiday tournaments. But this is when the action really begins as great rivalries take center court, and tonight’s duel in Lawrence certainly qualifies on that count.
Oklahoma and Kansas are two teams with a legit chance to be playing on the final weekend of March Madness. Lon Kruger has what is easily his strongest Oklahoma squad to date. Bill Self has a cohesive unit with plenty of talent and this team plays both ends of the court really well.
I would anticipate similar to what we saw when these teams met last season. The Sooners and Jayhawks split their two meetings. Oklahoma staged a spectacular rally in the first meeting, coming all the way back from being down 20 to take a lead at one point fairly late in the game. Then Jayhawks had more left in the tank at crunch time and got that win. Oklahoma won the rematch, leading for nearly the entire game but never putting Kansas away in a game that was an absolute thriller.
I don’t think there’s much to choose between the current editions of these two teams. Kansas has more depth, but barring foul trouble that’s not a likely issue for the well-conditioned Sooners. Both teams move the ball beautifully for high percentage shots, they’re each solid at the foul line and so on. Put these two teams on a neutral court and it’s a virtual wash.
I have a couple of things that point me in Oklahoma’s direction, however. One is a formula I like to implement using the “four factors” you can find at kenpom.com. I won’t go into specific detail on exactly what this is, but it works pretty well on an annual basis when it comes to garnering value with conference underdogs. The other is the line itself. No argument that Kansas has one of the best home court advantages in the game. But I like to use a floating HCA when making my numbers. Using Kansas as an example, I’ll award them more of a home court advantage against a poor traveler or perhaps against a team that I think might be intimidated by the surroundings. In the case of of Oklahoma, I don’t see them being overwhelmed by the atmosphere, so I’ve reduced that home court factor by a notch.
Bottom line is that I made this a a shade less than what’s showing at the books and Oklahoma is also a formula fit. Here’s hoping this game lives up to billing. If it does, my play on the Sooners plus the points has a good chance to connect.
Bonus Play Monday
535 OKLAHOMA @ 536 KANSAS 9:00 PM
Take: OKLAHOMA +6.5
Well, here we go. It’s conference season in college basketball, and now is when this sports really gets fun to watch. Not that there’s anything wrong with the early non-league action, especially some of the holiday tournaments. But this is when the action really begins as great rivalries take center court, and tonight’s duel in Lawrence certainly qualifies on that count.
Oklahoma and Kansas are two teams with a legit chance to be playing on the final weekend of March Madness. Lon Kruger has what is easily his strongest Oklahoma squad to date. Bill Self has a cohesive unit with plenty of talent and this team plays both ends of the court really well.
I would anticipate similar to what we saw when these teams met last season. The Sooners and Jayhawks split their two meetings. Oklahoma staged a spectacular rally in the first meeting, coming all the way back from being down 20 to take a lead at one point fairly late in the game. Then Jayhawks had more left in the tank at crunch time and got that win. Oklahoma won the rematch, leading for nearly the entire game but never putting Kansas away in a game that was an absolute thriller.
I don’t think there’s much to choose between the current editions of these two teams. Kansas has more depth, but barring foul trouble that’s not a likely issue for the well-conditioned Sooners. Both teams move the ball beautifully for high percentage shots, they’re each solid at the foul line and so on. Put these two teams on a neutral court and it’s a virtual wash.
I have a couple of things that point me in Oklahoma’s direction, however. One is a formula I like to implement using the “four factors” you can find at kenpom.com. I won’t go into specific detail on exactly what this is, but it works pretty well on an annual basis when it comes to garnering value with conference underdogs. The other is the line itself. No argument that Kansas has one of the best home court advantages in the game. But I like to use a floating HCA when making my numbers. Using Kansas as an example, I’ll award them more of a home court advantage against a poor traveler or perhaps against a team that I think might be intimidated by the surroundings. In the case of of Oklahoma, I don’t see them being overwhelmed by the atmosphere, so I’ve reduced that home court factor by a notch.
Bottom line is that I made this a a shade less than what’s showing at the books and Oklahoma is also a formula fit. Here’s hoping this game lives up to billing. If it does, my play on the Sooners plus the points has a good chance to connect.
