College Football Trends
Monday, January 12, 09:00 EST
NCAAF Championship - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, Texas
Ohio State Buckeyes
12-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins
10-1 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game
8-1 ATS off 4 or more consecutive overs
Oregon Ducks
6-5 ATS after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins
11-8 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread
42-23 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Monday, January 12, 09:00 EST
NCAAF Championship - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, Texas
Ohio State Buckeyes
12-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins
10-1 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game
8-1 ATS off 4 or more consecutive overs
Oregon Ducks
6-5 ATS after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins
11-8 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread
42-23 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
'National Championship'
Oregon Ducks (13-1, 10-4 ATS) dismantling FSU 59-20 as 7.5 point favorite roll into the title game with a nine-game SU/ATS winning streak scoring 49.2 points/game prevailing by a margin of 27.4 points/contest. Ohio State Buckeyes (13-1, 9-5 ATS) upsetting top-seeded Crimson Tide 42-35 as 7.5 point underdog head into the Title game on a twelve-game win streak (8-4 ATS) racking up 44.7 points/game winning by 28.3 points/game. The offshores have given Marcus Mariota and his 'Quack Attack' the nod handing Buckeyes 5.5 points of offense depending on locale with the 'Total' for the game hovering around 74.5 to 75.0. When doing your College Football handicapping for this Title Game there are a couple of interesting trends that you should be aware of. The Ducks have cashed eight straight laying a touchdown or more, 14-5 ATS after a win by 17 points or more, 10-0 ATS under head coach Mark Helfrich after scoring 50 plus the previous effort. The Buckeyes are a sparkling 12-2 ATS as 10 point or less underdog. Final two betting nuggets. Heisman winners are on a 5-1 ATS stretch during bowl season, the past six Championships the favorite is 5-1 ATS with 2 'Over', 4 'Under' over the span.
Oregon Ducks (13-1, 10-4 ATS) dismantling FSU 59-20 as 7.5 point favorite roll into the title game with a nine-game SU/ATS winning streak scoring 49.2 points/game prevailing by a margin of 27.4 points/contest. Ohio State Buckeyes (13-1, 9-5 ATS) upsetting top-seeded Crimson Tide 42-35 as 7.5 point underdog head into the Title game on a twelve-game win streak (8-4 ATS) racking up 44.7 points/game winning by 28.3 points/game. The offshores have given Marcus Mariota and his 'Quack Attack' the nod handing Buckeyes 5.5 points of offense depending on locale with the 'Total' for the game hovering around 74.5 to 75.0. When doing your College Football handicapping for this Title Game there are a couple of interesting trends that you should be aware of. The Ducks have cashed eight straight laying a touchdown or more, 14-5 ATS after a win by 17 points or more, 10-0 ATS under head coach Mark Helfrich after scoring 50 plus the previous effort. The Buckeyes are a sparkling 12-2 ATS as 10 point or less underdog. Final two betting nuggets. Heisman winners are on a 5-1 ATS stretch during bowl season, the past six Championships the favorite is 5-1 ATS with 2 'Over', 4 'Under' over the span.
Mr. Vegas
Bonus Play for Monday, Jan 12, 2015: Pistons at Raptors.
Hard to believe it, but Detroit has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA with its eight of nine game win streak. The Pistons have beaten some very good teams on the road too including: Dallas, San Antonio and Cleveland to name a few. The Pistons have also covered seven of their last nine games. Toronto still is considered one of the best in the East though with its 25-11 overall record. The Raptors had lost four in a row before its win at home over Boston, 109-96. The Raptors have pretty much dominated the Pistons, covering the last three and eight of the last 10. Despite being hot, I like this spot here for Toronto. We get a good line too as the oddsmaker has really valued Detroit so much more of late.
Take the Raptors.
Bonus Play for Monday, Jan 12, 2015: Pistons at Raptors.
Hard to believe it, but Detroit has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA with its eight of nine game win streak. The Pistons have beaten some very good teams on the road too including: Dallas, San Antonio and Cleveland to name a few. The Pistons have also covered seven of their last nine games. Toronto still is considered one of the best in the East though with its 25-11 overall record. The Raptors had lost four in a row before its win at home over Boston, 109-96. The Raptors have pretty much dominated the Pistons, covering the last three and eight of the last 10. Despite being hot, I like this spot here for Toronto. We get a good line too as the oddsmaker has really valued Detroit so much more of late.
Take the Raptors.
Dave Cokin
Bonus Plays Monday
OHIO STATE vs. OREGON Monday, Jan. 12, 2015 (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Venue: AT&T Stadium Location: Arlington, Texas
Here’s what I’ll be doing on tonight’s first ever true college football championship game.
OREGON -200 Money Line
OHIO STATE +6.5
My game prediction for the Las Vegas Review Journal survey conducted by Matt Youmans was Oregon 38-35. That’s just a guess, but it’s also a hope as well, as I’d sure like to see a great game.
As for the wager on the game, I could not come up with what I considered to be a solid take. My rankings have Ohio State ahead of Oregon (note that I was higher on the Buckeyes than just about anyone all season, as far as I know). But the math breakdown I utilize for individual matchups came up with Oregon by a TD. Welcome to coin flipville.
I decided to work on the premise that this has a very good chance to be a close football game. And that gives me an opportunity to gamble a bit and try and nail two winners.
We’re seeing what is the norm on Super Bowl-type game events. The amateurs who like the underdog are ignoring the points and flooding the market with Ohio State money line. As a result, that price is lower than it would usually be considering the current spread. The actual expected price (not the true right price, but the expected price) is about -245. So on that basis, -200 is not too shabby. (There’s better than -200 available if you shop, by the way.)
I can also take nearly a TD now with Ohio State, and based on the way the line has started to move in the last couple hours, I think it’s possible this gets all the way back to +7. So I’m waiting on the spread wager and might hold off till close to post time based on the way the chalk skyrocketed this weekend on two of the NFL games. But I have already played the Oregon ML.
The breakdown is simple enough. If Oregon wins by more than the number, I’ll win my money line bet and lose the spread wager. That’s a wash, no damage done.
If Ohio State wins outright, I’m out one unit as I’ll win the spread but lose the Ducks ML play.
But if Oregon wins by less than whatever the final spread happens to be, I’m cashing both tickets and collecting two units.
I don’t recommend this as a regular modus operandi. But I’ve done this in some Super Bowls where I felt the lower than usual money line justified it and I also thought there was a really decent chance it would be a close game. And that’s what I’ll be doing tonight as the Buckeyes and Ducks duel for the marbles.
Bonus Plays Monday
OHIO STATE vs. OREGON Monday, Jan. 12, 2015 (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Venue: AT&T Stadium Location: Arlington, Texas
Here’s what I’ll be doing on tonight’s first ever true college football championship game.
OREGON -200 Money Line
OHIO STATE +6.5
My game prediction for the Las Vegas Review Journal survey conducted by Matt Youmans was Oregon 38-35. That’s just a guess, but it’s also a hope as well, as I’d sure like to see a great game.
As for the wager on the game, I could not come up with what I considered to be a solid take. My rankings have Ohio State ahead of Oregon (note that I was higher on the Buckeyes than just about anyone all season, as far as I know). But the math breakdown I utilize for individual matchups came up with Oregon by a TD. Welcome to coin flipville.
I decided to work on the premise that this has a very good chance to be a close football game. And that gives me an opportunity to gamble a bit and try and nail two winners.
We’re seeing what is the norm on Super Bowl-type game events. The amateurs who like the underdog are ignoring the points and flooding the market with Ohio State money line. As a result, that price is lower than it would usually be considering the current spread. The actual expected price (not the true right price, but the expected price) is about -245. So on that basis, -200 is not too shabby. (There’s better than -200 available if you shop, by the way.)
I can also take nearly a TD now with Ohio State, and based on the way the line has started to move in the last couple hours, I think it’s possible this gets all the way back to +7. So I’m waiting on the spread wager and might hold off till close to post time based on the way the chalk skyrocketed this weekend on two of the NFL games. But I have already played the Oregon ML.
The breakdown is simple enough. If Oregon wins by more than the number, I’ll win my money line bet and lose the spread wager. That’s a wash, no damage done.
If Ohio State wins outright, I’m out one unit as I’ll win the spread but lose the Ducks ML play.
But if Oregon wins by less than whatever the final spread happens to be, I’m cashing both tickets and collecting two units.
I don’t recommend this as a regular modus operandi. But I’ve done this in some Super Bowls where I felt the lower than usual money line justified it and I also thought there was a really decent chance it would be a close game. And that’s what I’ll be doing tonight as the Buckeyes and Ducks duel for the marbles.
Jim Feist
NBA Comp Pick for Monday, January 11, 2015: 7:35 PM ET
(703) NEW ORLEANS PELICANS VS (704) BOSTON CELTICS
Take: UNDER
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Monday, January 12, 2015 is in the NBA contest between the New Orleans Pelicans and Boston Celtics. Once again this year we see a big difference between the teams in the west and the east. The Pelicans are 18-18 on the season, but by virtue of being in the west they are 9th in the west standings and would miss the playoffs if they were held today. If they were in the east, the would sit just behind 6th place Milwaukee who is 20-19. Right now there are two teams in the east that would make the playoffs with records five games or more below the .500 mark. Unfortunately for the Celtics, even being in the East won help them this year at 12-23. Boston pretty much said they were building a young team for the future when they traded veteran guard Rajon Rondo to the Mavs earlier this season. I'm looking at the UNDER here in today's contest. New Orleans has gone over its last two games, but they are still just 4-8 O/U their last 12 games. The Celtics offense hasn't been much of late, scoring under 100 points in three of the last four games. This series has also been a very good under play, with nine of the last 11 meetings going UNDER and 13 of the last 16 in Boston going UNDER. The Pelicans are playing their third game in four nights so I don't see them pushing a pace here. Your Bonus Play is on the UNDER.
NBA Comp Pick for Monday, January 11, 2015: 7:35 PM ET
(703) NEW ORLEANS PELICANS VS (704) BOSTON CELTICS
Take: UNDER
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Monday, January 12, 2015 is in the NBA contest between the New Orleans Pelicans and Boston Celtics. Once again this year we see a big difference between the teams in the west and the east. The Pelicans are 18-18 on the season, but by virtue of being in the west they are 9th in the west standings and would miss the playoffs if they were held today. If they were in the east, the would sit just behind 6th place Milwaukee who is 20-19. Right now there are two teams in the east that would make the playoffs with records five games or more below the .500 mark. Unfortunately for the Celtics, even being in the East won help them this year at 12-23. Boston pretty much said they were building a young team for the future when they traded veteran guard Rajon Rondo to the Mavs earlier this season. I'm looking at the UNDER here in today's contest. New Orleans has gone over its last two games, but they are still just 4-8 O/U their last 12 games. The Celtics offense hasn't been much of late, scoring under 100 points in three of the last four games. This series has also been a very good under play, with nine of the last 11 meetings going UNDER and 13 of the last 16 in Boston going UNDER. The Pelicans are playing their third game in four nights so I don't see them pushing a pace here. Your Bonus Play is on the UNDER.
Xander Locke
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Bonus Play OREGON
Oregon is by far the better team here. Ohio St beat an Alabama team that was just not that good. Alabama QB Blake Sims threw 3INT's in the Iron Bowl, he also threw 3 INT's vs Ohio St. The Buckeyes won't have that luxury when they face a SUPERIOR Ducks team. QB Marcus Mariota is the most efficient QB in College football. Ohio St fell behind 21-6 to Alabama before coming back to get the win. Once Oregon gets the lead in this game, there won't be any coming back for the Buckeyes. Oregon and Mariota will dominate this game. This is a complete MISMATCH. OHIO ST HASN'T FACED A TEAM ALL SEASON THAT IS AS GOOD OR EVEN NEARLY AS GOOD AS OREGON. Oregon wins this one by 10+.
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Bonus Play OREGON
Oregon is by far the better team here. Ohio St beat an Alabama team that was just not that good. Alabama QB Blake Sims threw 3INT's in the Iron Bowl, he also threw 3 INT's vs Ohio St. The Buckeyes won't have that luxury when they face a SUPERIOR Ducks team. QB Marcus Mariota is the most efficient QB in College football. Ohio St fell behind 21-6 to Alabama before coming back to get the win. Once Oregon gets the lead in this game, there won't be any coming back for the Buckeyes. Oregon and Mariota will dominate this game. This is a complete MISMATCH. OHIO ST HASN'T FACED A TEAM ALL SEASON THAT IS AS GOOD OR EVEN NEARLY AS GOOD AS OREGON. Oregon wins this one by 10+.
Art Aronson
Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals 7:05PM
Reason: 1* Free Washington Capitals
I believe that the home side will come in focused here and definitely feel that it?s worth the price of admission in this spot. I think this is a letdown spot for the visitors after winning three straight. As good as Semyon Varlamov and the Avs are playing right now, they?re about to run into a buzzsaw tonight, the Capitals are 12-1-4 in their last 17 and have won five straight in the Nation?s capital after crushing Detroit 3-1 on Saturday. Also note that Colorado is a poor 5-9 (-3.8 units) after a divisional game this season and 8-14 (-4.8 units) in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, this line should be larger, making the CAPITALS a very intriguing investment opportunity in this matchup.
AAA Sports
Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals 7:05PM
Reason: 1* Free Washington Capitals
I believe that the home side will come in focused here and definitely feel that it?s worth the price of admission in this spot. I think this is a letdown spot for the visitors after winning three straight. As good as Semyon Varlamov and the Avs are playing right now, they?re about to run into a buzzsaw tonight, the Capitals are 12-1-4 in their last 17 and have won five straight in the Nation?s capital after crushing Detroit 3-1 on Saturday. Also note that Colorado is a poor 5-9 (-3.8 units) after a divisional game this season and 8-14 (-4.8 units) in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, this line should be larger, making the CAPITALS a very intriguing investment opportunity in this matchup.
AAA Sports
Andre Ramirez
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Free BLACK HORSE 50 DIMES GOY OHIO ST +7
Today we are laying the money on Ohio State +7 points.. Ohio St is the black horse in College Football. They have been dominant on the ground, and we saw what they did to that Alabama Defense. Oregon's offense is great but will be challenged against Ohio St. defense which has limited opponents to just 23 points. Ohio St has the edge in offense and defense, and don't be surprised if Ohio St. wins the game OUTRIGHT! Lay the money on Ohio St. for today's winner. Thank You
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Free BLACK HORSE 50 DIMES GOY OHIO ST +7
Today we are laying the money on Ohio State +7 points.. Ohio St is the black horse in College Football. They have been dominant on the ground, and we saw what they did to that Alabama Defense. Oregon's offense is great but will be challenged against Ohio St. defense which has limited opponents to just 23 points. Ohio St has the edge in offense and defense, and don't be surprised if Ohio St. wins the game OUTRIGHT! Lay the money on Ohio St. for today's winner. Thank You
Woodbine Harness: Monday 1/12 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
DRF HARNESS
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet: NOWUCIT NOWUDONT (5th)
Spot Play: BURNING SHORE (6th)
Race 1
(4) LITTLE QUICK looks like a good option to put on top to kick-off the card with his recent efforts. (7) P L GYRO moves back onto this circuit after competing at Flamboro and has the speed to go with this group. (5) SWEET COLT OF MINE put together a fine campaign last season and will look for a positive start to 2015.
Race 2
(4) RANDOM MAJORITY raises a few question marks, but I'm still going to give him the benefit of the doubt and select him on top. (5) THE MUSCLER hasn't been on form as of late, but draws in the middle of the gate and was timed in 1:55 4/5 last week. (3) SUMMER MISCHIEF put together a credible campaign last season and the gelding draws inside this week and comes from the Richard Moreau barn.
Race 3
(5) MUSCLE BOYTOY has been the picture of consistency as of late for trainer Richard Moreau and the gelding has been a top threat at this level for many weeks. (7) SORRENTO HALL has hit the board in four of his last five starts and comes from the Rick Zeron barn. (6) LOVE DETECTIVE has been racing very well for trainer Robert Mackenzie as the daughter of Ken Warkentin has been finishing off her miles very well and will have Jody Jamieson back in the bike.
Race 4
(6) EARTHQUAKE MADNESS comes one of the top conditioners on the WEG Circuit in Jack Darling and the pacing son of Shadow Play enjoyed his first career win two starts back and still fits into this maiden class on the circuit. (5) KILLER MARTINI also has been competing at Flamboro and will offer a short price based on the connections he hails from with trainer Dave Menary. (3) TERROR OF THE NITE overcame the outside post 10 last week and paced home very strong to finish fourth.
Race 5
(5) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT can't be overlooked in this dash with his recent performances and connections he hails from. (3) STANDING MY GROUND draws inside again this week and has found a new gear as of late for trainer Rob Fellows. (8) SLIP INTO GLIDE has been racing as high as the Preferred event three and four starts back and since then has been a beaten favourite in each of his last two.
Race 6
(1) BURNING SHORE is a price option in this wide-open dash and terrific betting race that is a part of the Early Pick 4. (5) ALWAYS THERE draws in the middle of the gate this week and made a good account of himself last week. (7) HAIL THE TAXI is coming off a 1:51 4/5 individual time and that type of effort makes him a top threat in this class.
Race 7
(4) OZZY OZZY was pulled up last week by driver Jody Jamieson and I'm willing to overlook that raceline as the veteran is back on a regular rotation. (3) KINETIC KING drops down in class this week and that should result in a better effort for trainer/driver Roger Mayotte. (5) RECKON IM READY draws in the middle of the gate and the gelding has been racing very consistently for trainer Ben Baillargeon.
Race 8
(8) SKY DESPERADO has been well known on this circuit for his quick gate-speed and he will need it with a post eight start. (9) COWBOY CODY draws outside for a third straight week, but has been racing very strong considering for trainer Joe Cirasuola. (5) LOST IN PANSLATION draws in the middle of the gate this week and is a good option to include in the triactor with his recent performances.
Race 9
(7) CHARLIE IS A JOKER drops out of the Preferred Trot after finishing third last week and into this softer group. (6) FEARLESS MAN was a winner in this class two starts back and is another main threat again tonight. (5) CATCH THE DREAM rallied to finish fourth last week in the Preferred Trot as the veteran closed from well off-the-pace.
Race 10
(6) EVASIVE CARD SHARK comes out of the Valedictory Series and into this more suitable level for trainer Richard Moreau. (10) DRAGON WAVE will need to overcome the outside post 10, but his form as of late has been very good for trainer John Pentland. (5) WHOS IN THE MIST has hit the board in each of his last three starts and four of his last five.
By Greg Gangle
DRF HARNESS
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet: NOWUCIT NOWUDONT (5th)
Spot Play: BURNING SHORE (6th)
Race 1
(4) LITTLE QUICK looks like a good option to put on top to kick-off the card with his recent efforts. (7) P L GYRO moves back onto this circuit after competing at Flamboro and has the speed to go with this group. (5) SWEET COLT OF MINE put together a fine campaign last season and will look for a positive start to 2015.
Race 2
(4) RANDOM MAJORITY raises a few question marks, but I'm still going to give him the benefit of the doubt and select him on top. (5) THE MUSCLER hasn't been on form as of late, but draws in the middle of the gate and was timed in 1:55 4/5 last week. (3) SUMMER MISCHIEF put together a credible campaign last season and the gelding draws inside this week and comes from the Richard Moreau barn.
Race 3
(5) MUSCLE BOYTOY has been the picture of consistency as of late for trainer Richard Moreau and the gelding has been a top threat at this level for many weeks. (7) SORRENTO HALL has hit the board in four of his last five starts and comes from the Rick Zeron barn. (6) LOVE DETECTIVE has been racing very well for trainer Robert Mackenzie as the daughter of Ken Warkentin has been finishing off her miles very well and will have Jody Jamieson back in the bike.
Race 4
(6) EARTHQUAKE MADNESS comes one of the top conditioners on the WEG Circuit in Jack Darling and the pacing son of Shadow Play enjoyed his first career win two starts back and still fits into this maiden class on the circuit. (5) KILLER MARTINI also has been competing at Flamboro and will offer a short price based on the connections he hails from with trainer Dave Menary. (3) TERROR OF THE NITE overcame the outside post 10 last week and paced home very strong to finish fourth.
Race 5
(5) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT can't be overlooked in this dash with his recent performances and connections he hails from. (3) STANDING MY GROUND draws inside again this week and has found a new gear as of late for trainer Rob Fellows. (8) SLIP INTO GLIDE has been racing as high as the Preferred event three and four starts back and since then has been a beaten favourite in each of his last two.
Race 6
(1) BURNING SHORE is a price option in this wide-open dash and terrific betting race that is a part of the Early Pick 4. (5) ALWAYS THERE draws in the middle of the gate this week and made a good account of himself last week. (7) HAIL THE TAXI is coming off a 1:51 4/5 individual time and that type of effort makes him a top threat in this class.
Race 7
(4) OZZY OZZY was pulled up last week by driver Jody Jamieson and I'm willing to overlook that raceline as the veteran is back on a regular rotation. (3) KINETIC KING drops down in class this week and that should result in a better effort for trainer/driver Roger Mayotte. (5) RECKON IM READY draws in the middle of the gate and the gelding has been racing very consistently for trainer Ben Baillargeon.
Race 8
(8) SKY DESPERADO has been well known on this circuit for his quick gate-speed and he will need it with a post eight start. (9) COWBOY CODY draws outside for a third straight week, but has been racing very strong considering for trainer Joe Cirasuola. (5) LOST IN PANSLATION draws in the middle of the gate this week and is a good option to include in the triactor with his recent performances.
Race 9
(7) CHARLIE IS A JOKER drops out of the Preferred Trot after finishing third last week and into this softer group. (6) FEARLESS MAN was a winner in this class two starts back and is another main threat again tonight. (5) CATCH THE DREAM rallied to finish fourth last week in the Preferred Trot as the veteran closed from well off-the-pace.
Race 10
(6) EVASIVE CARD SHARK comes out of the Valedictory Series and into this more suitable level for trainer Richard Moreau. (10) DRAGON WAVE will need to overcome the outside post 10, but his form as of late has been very good for trainer John Pentland. (5) WHOS IN THE MIST has hit the board in each of his last three starts and four of his last five.
