LOVE the giants in this spot....i picked this game out last nite! Maholm is not great on the road (5.77 ERA) and lincecum is nasty. The pirates are terrible on the road as well, and despite the fact maholm has solid career numbers against the giants (1-0, 2.31ERA), the giants score many more runs per game at home....feel confident in this spot
With the Phils, I like this game as well (even on the run-line!)....they have been torching the ball....garland has lousy career numbers against the phils, and moyer has been sparkling in zona (2-0, 3.00ERA)...hes much better on the road anyway than at home....yes, zona has been hitting much better of late, but that was against pirate pitching! i think moyer cools them off enough, as the dbacks cant rack up the totals of the phils!
We're going to turn it up a notch this week based on our research:
4 Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 between the Oakland A's @ Boston Redsox (Monday @ 7:10pm est). With nearly 80% riding Beckett in his start coming off a loss, I like Cahill to pitch well today. Remember, this kid showed great stuff at Minnesota giving up just 1 run in 6 innings and heck - he hadn't given up a run in Fenway on July 8th until the sixth inning when he gave up all his runs. Thus, I look for him to learn from that mistake and pitch well for his entire start today. Of course, Beckett comes off a loss and he has been lights out off a loss as well as lights out overall - as he is 6-0 with a 2.44era in 9 starts there this season. The Under is 7-3 for the A's when they are road underdogs of late and the Under is 6-0 for the Redsox in Beckett's last six home starts (as well as 5-1-1 when the Redsox face a pitcher with a WHIP of greater than 1.30).
4 Unit Play. Take Under 10 between the Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers (Monday @ 8:05pm est). Galaragga faces his old team in Tejas today and he always gets fired up to pitch against them (he has already beaten them twice since being traded to Detroit). He has put together 3 of 4 quality starts and he comes off a no-decision where he gave up just 1 run on 1 hit to Seattle at home. You tack that on with the fact he is paired with Tommy Hunter who is 2-1 with a 2.17 era and has been rock solid at home this year - including defeating the Redsox at home giving up just 4 hits and 1 earned run, you have the foundation of a decent under. Tommy has given up just 1 run over his past 12 innings and the Tigers are getting their first look at him. Consequently, Tommy has the advantage and Galaragga of course looks to continue to get his never ending revenge on the Rangers for trading him. The Under is 10-1 when the Tigers face a winning team of late and the Under is 7-0 in Hunter's last 7 starts.
4 Unit Play. Take the New York Yankees -115 over the Tampa Bay Rays (Monday @ 7:08pm est). The Yankees are rolling right now and their ace is on the mound. Tack that with Burnett being lights out in the month of July with a 5-1 record and 1.82era and you have a dynamic pitcher with a team that is on the rise. Besides, Shields has always struggled against New York with a 1-6 record and 5.73era in eight starts against the Yankees. I look for the Yanks to do well as they are 12-2 when Burnett is listed as a favorite, 6-0 when Burnett starts with a total set at this range and the Rays are 1-7 in Shield's last 8 starts against the Yankees.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy
