MNF! U Can't Beat The "Value Of 7"

YourAllAmerican · Nov 3, 2008

Actually betting the Over 7 for the 3Q looks to be a really bad bet, with that number being reached only 30 percent of the time, if I ran my queries correctly. The Under 7 for that period looks to be the better option in for the long run.

919 · Nov 3, 2008

MR. NEWLYWED said:
TAKE THE OVER!
50% Of WINNING..25% Of PUSHING..25% Of LOSING!
All You Need Is 1 TD To PUSH..Anything More Is A WIN!
Most Games Are 7.5, 9.5, 10, even 14....So When I See A Total For A Quarter Just 7.....I SLAM IT!

classic!

straightcashhomie · Nov 3, 2008

GL tonight, interesting thread.

maheha · Nov 3, 2008

YourAllAmerican said:
Guys, there's a lot of validity to this system of quarter betting. It's not the number of possible ways for a total of under 7 to occur that affects the percentages, it's the likelihood of each manner of scoring that's important. There are a lot more quarters that have a touchdown than there are quarters with a safety, for example.

A very fast bit of backtesting on sportsdatabase gave me the following results dating back to and including the 2002 season:

PERCENTAGE OF QUARTERS WITH 7 OR MORE POINTS SCORED

Q1: 81%
Q2: 74%
Q3: 30%
Q4: 68%

This is based on 1,464 games, so the sample size is a good one. Do be aware that my testing was very fast and I haven't proofed my queries, but at a quick glance there does appear to be a lot of value in this type of wager, with the notable exception of the third quarter, where there is equal value in taking the Under 7.

while this point makes sense, here are your problems, how many of those games analyzed actually had a line of 7 for that quarter? or how many of those games analyzed included the number 1 ranked defense in the nfl etc. the point is, the line is 7 for a reason, if you give me stats from your database on lines that were 7 and the percentages that would be nice, otherwise your post doesnt have that great of a point pertaining to tonights game...

TheShotDoctor · Nov 3, 2008

Not Exactly...........

YourAllAmerican said:
Actually betting the Over 7 for the 3Q looks to be a really bad bet, with that number being reached only 30 percent of the time, if I ran my queries correctly. The Under 7 for that period looks to be the better option in for the long run.

I Do Not Think Either "OVER 7" Is A "Bad Bet"
However I Do Favor The 1st Q OVER 7 MORE Than The 3rd. Again, Both Having The Total Of 7...HAVE VALUE! Also...w/ Your % I Promise You The Totals In ALL GAMES Have A Higher Total For The 3rd Q Than The 1st.

Here's Alittle Example.............

Since 1995...........Average Totals Per Q In The NFL.

1st Q....................7.5
3rd Q...................9.5

Again GL
--NW--

YourAllAmerican · Nov 3, 2008

maheha said:
while this point makes sense, here are your problems, how many of those games analyzed actually had a line of 7 for that quarter? or how many of those games analyzed included the number 1 ranked defense in the nfl etc. the point is, the line is 7 for a reason, if you give me stats from your database on lines that were 7 and the percentages that would be nice, otherwise your post doesnt have that great of a point pertaining to tonights game...

You'll have to go run a full search yourself to get the answers you want to know. The full-league query is pertinent to tonight's game, and all NFL games, though as it gives some insight into general patterns of scoring in the pro game.

Use that as your starting point for delving deeper into specifics.

TheShotDoctor · Nov 3, 2008

All American

What Was The Average Score Of Each Quarter Since 02'? Just Thought You Might Have Those Numbers.

NW

maheha · Nov 3, 2008

YourAllAmerican said:
You'll have to go run a full search yourself to get the answers you want to know. The full-league query is pertinent to tonight's game, and all NFL games, though as it gives some insight into general patterns of scoring in the pro game.

Use that as your starting point for delving deeper into specifics.

General patterns of scoring doesnt mean we should buy into this and drop money on these bets, your information isnt useful to tonights game, it would be like you telling us the average point differential in an nfl game the home team on average wins by 3.6 so we should bet the redskins tonight since there is value there...

you cant apply "the full-league query" and consider it "pertinent to tonight's game and all NFL games"

As for the information I requested I won't waste my time finding it out, I just thought since you decided to "research" some of your own you might want to at least give us more helpful and less misguiding information as it doesnt pertain to tonights game specifically...

As far as you bets tonight NW gl to you, as I have said that record on these quarter bets is impressive, bol

YourAllAmerican · Nov 3, 2008

maheha said:
As for the information I requested I won't waste my time finding it out, I just thought since you decided to "research" some of your own you might want to at least give us more helpful and less misguiding information as it doesnt pertain to tonights game specifically...l

I'm not "giving" you anything. I ran some numbers for myself to see if there was anything worth investigating. There is.

But I'm glad to know you won't waste your time digging into things like stats and long-term patterns that could lead to insights as to how average games break down. Keep betting based on gut feelings. I'm sure it's worked out well for you.

Intruder · Nov 3, 2008

sucks cause I took the over 7, and he mushed me

Intruder · Nov 3, 2008

lucky for you, you don't actually bet

rnaude241 · Nov 3, 2008

6 points

kidslick · Nov 3, 2008

zero first downs in the 1st Q ??

GasMan · Nov 3, 2008

Mr. Newleywed.

I have watched the abuse you have taken on here for over a year now. You are a mush. You are a losing gambler.

I am not trying to join the bashing as I have actually enjoyed your fortitude even in the face of complete embarrasment.

All I am saying is just "Give it up".

I am sure you are a good guy but why do you constantly ask for this abuse? Do you have a self humiliation issue?

Buster · Nov 3, 2008

he was keeping up with his other record (total per day) (much like this 14-3) but has seemed to stop a while back?...i could be wrong...

last one i could find...

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=624242

Sat. Oct 18th cfb (66-56-5 -2850)

don't know why/if he stopped...if anyone sober can find the rest catch it up...

ginseng3 · Nov 3, 2008

if your married to football .....

GET A DIVORCE !!

:smoker2:

joeybagadonuts · Nov 4, 2008

:nohead:

Way to go, Mailman. It's all good, I heard you are a LOCK to win a Keno jackpot this week. Looks like that 25% chance happened twice in one game. Math, buddy, learn it.

TheWolf · Nov 4, 2008

Gas Man said:
Mr. Newleywed.

I have watched the abuse you have taken on here for over a year now. You are a mush. You are a losing gambler.

I am not trying to join the bashing as I have actually enjoyed your fortitude even in the face of complete embarrasment.

All I am saying is just "Give it up".

I am sure you are a good guy but why do you constantly ask for this abuse? Do you have a self humiliation issue?

Post of the year!

Mr. N is like the kid who keeps getting his ass kicked and keeps getting up to come back for more, only to get kicked in the balls again and again.

Jetplane · Nov 4, 2008

i still gotta say he pulled some nice ass >:\ if that's really his.

dayang23 · Nov 4, 2008

Why do people look at stupid averages as their sole reason to make a play? That's the dumbest thing I ever heard of. Ever thought about looking at the two teams playing tonight? Maybe that Pitt has the number 1 defense and Washington's is pretty damn good as well? Even with the 2 Steelers gifts, there were only 6 pts in the quarter. BTW...don't you always play overs?