MLS week 9

[rolltide]

19-0-11 +28.85 (staked 99.69, +29.0%)
week 1 4-0 +15.70
week 2 5-1 +6.00
week 3 3-2 +6.55
week 4 0-3 -9.62
week 5 2-0 +8.50
week 6 3-1 +5.67
week 7 1-1 +1.20
week 8 1-3 -5.15

Seattle vs LA Galaxy
- well i hate playing against LA as they are the most dangerous team in MLS but with the missing players tonight and the inability of their defense to keep from making game-changing mistakes I have to play on Seattle. Seattle in midst of 5 games in 15 days but they have no doubt circled this one as a must-win because of their futility against the Gals. They've only beaten LA once in MLS play and never at home and haven't even scored in last 3 meetings here so big motivation tonight. As you can see from my preview I don't think much separates these two teams when completely healthy and LA will have far from a full group playing tonight. Because of big nationally televised home game this weekend LA have chosen to keep Beckham and Keane at home and it is 50/50 whether Donovan will start match as the Seattle turf isn't very friendly. Still have a lot of guys like Juninho, Magee, and Buddle in offense but their team revolves around Beckham's crosses and Keane's finishing. Goalie Josh Saunders also stayed in LA for "personal issues" (possibly violated substance abuse policy) and Bill Gaudette is not capable at MLS level (IMO). The big news for Seattle is the likely return of Rosales to the right side. He might just be the best player in MLS and this team has really struggled to create offense without him. Seattle did have their way with LA in last meeting, 3-1 home win in Cup, but that LA team was a split squad so I don't take much from that result. We have two really even teams and right now Seattle is simply better in every sector. By year's end I expect LA to be a top 2-3 team but they are still finding their way in defense and without top scorer (keane) and top assister (Beckham) they won't have an easy time here. Scoring the first goal will be an absolute must for us to win this game. For one, MLS teams are 53-8-9 this year when scoring first but Seattle are unbeaten in 18 matches (Since Oct 2010) when scoring the first goal. Scoring first likely means a victory but at worst a half stake lost.

Seattle -1/4 7u -102 sbobet (-103 12bet)

 

[tk2wndw]

Just wondering would you play this in my case if the only line available is ml +120?

 

[rolltide]

+120 I'd go 4u

 

[tk2wndw]

Thanks

 

[B-Free]

Good luck guys I also like the play. Puttn five Hundo on ml.

 

[japiassu]

Rolltide I do not get your bet in the game today "Seattle -1 / 4 sbobet 7u -102 (-103 12bet)" you bet ML or AH? Sorry for the question!

 

[rolltide]

lineups are in. LD will start but, most importantly, so will Rosales. If Seattle doesn't score at least 2 against Lopes, Jordan, and Gual in defense I'll be shocked. Look out for a very retreated Galaxy trying for chances strictly on counters with LD long balls to Barrett. Really surprised no Buddle, Magee, and Noonan for LAG....really this is nearly best XI for Seattle vs mixed squad of LA

Liking this bet a lot. let's see what happens

japiassu, plenty of places you can look up what laying 1/4 ball means....

Sounders FC starting lineup: GK Michael Gspurning, D Zach Scott, D Jeff Parke, D Jhon Kennedy Hurtado, D Leo Gonzalez, M Mauro Rosales, M Osvaldo Alonso, M Brad Evans, M David Estrada, F Fredy Montero, F Eddie Johnson

Los Angeles Galaxy starting lineup: GK Bill Gaudette, D David Junior Lopes, D Bryan Jordan, D A.J. DeLaGarza, D Brian Gaul, M Sean Franklin, M Marcelo Sarvas, M Landon Donovan, M Juninho, F Chad Barrett, F Adam Cristman

Sounders FC bench: GK Brian Meredith, D Marc Burch, M Alex Caskey, D Adam Johansson, F Sammy Ochoa, M Andy Rose, M Christian Sivebaek

Los Angeles Galaxy bench: GK Brian Rowe, F Edson Buddle, M Mike Magee, D Tommy Meyer, M Kyle Nakazawa, F Pat Noonan, M Michael Stephens

 

[rolltide]

San Jose vs DC United
- certainly Seattle is my main midweek wager but I think the goals bet here is worth a small stake. Both teams in top 6 in MLS SOG and top 5 in shots taken, with DC sitting #1 in league in that category. Goals scored we have #3 vs #4 and defensively Bernardez missing for San Jose and he's been the league's top center back in MLS for my money this year. DC 2 out of 3 trips have seen 3+ goals while SJ is 2/4 home games but 2 straight with big 2H offense. Over is 6-3 in L9 h2h meetings. Both offenses are rolling and SJ's Wondo just won MLS player of month for April so I think we should see some goals in this one. If SJ can slide 2 in Philly who are really good in defense I expect the same at home to a much more open DC United. DC big guns are in great form so should certainly score as well

SJ/DC over 2.5 2.5u -110 pinnacle/betcris

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

do u ever lose in this league?..another fantastik call w/the over in DC united done at half...cheers

 

[rolltide]

thx for the props City but, yeah, unfortunately I lose plenty....just not tonight

(sorry, still in United choke depression...completely gutted, cranky as a MF'er, and in semi-disbelief. Even winning 9.5u doesn't fire me up)

midweek results:
Seattle 2-0 +7u ... LA just 1 SOG all match
San Jose 5-3 +2.5u .... in by 21', doesn't happen often and when it does sure wish i had more than 2.5u. Wondo with a brace

midweek 2-0 +9.5u (9.89u staked)

back for the weekend of week 9...two in line that i like a bit depending on their prices.

 

[tk2wndw]

Great call again tide thank you, guess just the junky in me but give me 9.5 units every day of the week in exchange for my favorite team losing.

 

[SunDodger]

Damn, rolltide. You really did your homework on the Seattle game. Outstanding pick. I played it with confidence.

Without question the leader of this team is Rosales, and it showed tonight. The trade for Eddie Johnson is starting to pay dividends. And finally Montero scores on an absolute wonderstrike! The Sounders could've easily scored 4 or 5 goals.

It was almost as if Bruce Arena was conceding the game with that lineup. What was he thinking? He had to give the old timers a rest?

 

[B-Free]

Rolltide thanks for your in depth analysis. Totally spot on last night. Good job bud. I'm surprised how well my quakes are doing this year. They are playing good team ball. Soccer is my fav sport and it's great to read your write ups. Continued success this season!

 

[rolltide]

LA Galaxy vs RBNY
- a very rare play for me on a team that had a midweek match but Gals should be plenty rested as Beckham, Keane, and Saunders stayed home while Buddle, Magee, and Noonan came off the bench and only played 38/32/19 minutes. Defense could be fatigued as Seattle had them under the gun all match but at least 6 starters will be fresh. RBNY without 7 starters including their two best players, Henry and Marquez, and 3 of 4 in defense. Same defense that started last week and posted clean sheet on NE but it took a tremendous effort by keeper, post, crossbar, and handful of easy Revs misses to create that 1-0 scoreline. RBNY can't play without Henry as he opens the field up for the rest of the offense. Not only has he scored half their goals but he's assisted on 5 more so he's led directly to 14 or their 18 goals this year and has taken as many shots as their # 2-3-4 shot takers combined. LA push the ball through the middle via Juninho and Donovan runs and from the right through Beckham crosses and they should have a field day against RBNY's reserve left back and center backs especially with both holding MF, Marquez and Taino, still out. What the Revs lacked in striker finishing the LA duo of Keane and Buddle do not, so I can't think you'll see 10 chances go by without a goal. Last week showed just how important Henry is to the Red Bulls. Before he popped his hamstring and was subbed out at 25' he had scored a goal and created a ton of chances as the Red Bulls had 12 shots in those 25 minutes...they produced just once feeble attempt wide in the final 65'. Lindpere and Richards are playing horrible football, Ballouchy is not an MLS-level MF (despite seemingly every MLS team trying him out as one), and Cooper needs a guy like Henry next to him to have any success up front. If LA will ever post a clean sheet it will be on Saturday night and they shouldn't have any trouble scoring 2 or 3 on the disaster that is the RBNY defense. My odds -150

LA Galaxy 5u -105 betcris

Toronto vs DC United
- both played midweek matches but Toronto only had a mixed team over for short trip to Montreal while DC played regulars in a San Jose night match and now come back to EST for mid-afternoon kickoff. This is an historic match for Toronto as no MLS team have ever started a season with 8 straight defeats. The fact is they are playing far and above beyond their 0-0-7 record but just can't help making costly defensive mistakes just as they did in 93rd minute in Salt Lake last week. Biggest news is the probable return of Soolsma and Koevermans to attack as DK is clearly their best offensive threat. If he's, in fact, starting it will be the first match that both Koevermans and Frings have started together all season. Throw in de Guzman, Silva, Soolsma, and Johnson and you have a really decent midfield. DC's offense is clicking but they've allowed 10 goals in 5 games including 5 on Wed night. I prefer to go straight win small rather than level ball or +1/4 as TFC have cost me 2 losses this year and while over 2.5 looks good I'd rather limit my staking on any TFC game right now. As with any MLS match this year scoring first is vital and no more so than with TFC who haven't done so in any of their 7 matches and lost them all. Will almost always take a hungry team +200 or better against another that is playing on short week and cross country trip.

Toronto FC 2.25u +215 betcris

 

[rolltide]

good little article from dutch press with koevermans. looks like they are still a very confident team despite 0-0-7 record. pretty much sums it up saying that other than the match in seattle where they played reserves every single game could have gone either way. http://www.sport-promotion.nl/nl/news/Danny_Koevermans___Komt_goed_met_Toronto_.html?id=811

then again, 0-0-7 is 0-0-7

 

[gremlin]

Damn, I was looking at this LA Galaxy game and I hesitated this morning in betting (NO IDEA WHY) and now the line has moved to -150 at my book!

 

[rolltide]

Sporting KC vs Montreal
- KC coming in off a well-earned 2 week break after their 7-0-1 start to the season while Montreal in middle of a 5 game in 14 day stretch and 3rd match this week. They look to be improving defensively after gaining b2b clean sheets but let's see how they do away from home where they've allowed 2+ goals four different times already. KC have just dominated fellow Eastern Conference teams at Livestrong Park and have yet to lose a regular season game against one, just that sole loss in playoffs to Houston. They beat New England 3-0 here earlier in 2012 and have surrendered just 1 goal in total but have played Dallas, LA, and RSL who are all a level above Montreal (4-0-0 7/1 at home this year). Montreal did snag a draw in last road game, 1-1 at DC, but also allowed 18 shots which is way too many in MLS and certainly not good news when facing Sporting KC who lead MLS in shots per game. SKC have their 4-3-3 in perfect working order after some serious growing pains last year and not only lead league in shots but also in corners and have gone offside just 11x in 8 games which means their runs are getting timed perfectly. Again, not good news for Montreal who employ a Blackpool-style of high line defense which begs their fullbacks to employ the offside trap all match. Won't happen at SKC. Defensively Sporting KC are #1 in MLS with just 3 goals allowed, 1 at home, while Impact by far most away goals conceded. Montreal also 0-2-4 in away 1H so this one could get out of reach pretty quickly. If Montreal doesn't make lineup changes their team will be gassed. Eight players that started last weekend played at least 80' on Wednesday vs Toronto and they have the Toronto return leg in just a couple days. Coach as made claims that a big goal this year is to win Canadian Championship and return to Concacaf CL so lineup rotation might be in order and if it comes down to best team in East vs an expansion team's reserves this shouldn't be all that close. Montreal without starting D Valentin and unlikely to have starting MF Mapp while KC are full squad. Big decision is whether to lay the -1 goal in the 1.75 range or the -1.25 goal. Since I don't see this game being all that close...

Sporting KC -1.25 2.5u +107 pinnacle

 

[supermann]

thanks

 

[gremlin]

Rolltide, what do you think about Seattle vs. Philadelphia?

 

[rolltide]

odds set right maybe even a bit too low on seattle even though i think they'll win. philly are a good defensive team, tough to break down, so laying -180 or higher is too much for a team playing 3rd time in a week off a road game and an emotional home midweek win.

far prefer RSL in -180 or -200 today than Seattle. If I were betting seattle match, which i am not, it would be the under