MLS week 9

[rolltide]

15-13-2 +7.16 (staked 97.04, +7.4%)

Dallas vs Toronto
- Toronto are a very poor team but also very tired and the last thing they needed was another midweek match followed by another game on Saturday. In all they'll have played 6 matches in 21 games with this being their 5th in 18 and 3rd in last 7 including 3 very long trips to Edmonton, Seattle, and now Dallas. Away from home they've allowed 3 to Seattle, 4 to Vancouver, and 1 at San Jose. Dating back to mid-2009 they're 3-6-17 on the road including 1-3-10 against current Western teams with 4 of those 6 points against SJ. Dallas are still a top 8 MLS team even without injured MF Ferreira but not the top 4 they would be with him but shouldn't have much difficulty here. They really created little against LA and nothing against DC so Ferreira's omission is hurting their offense, as expected, but they haven't lost to a team from the East at home since March 2009. Toronto coach hinted that there could be wholesale changes to his lineup to rest for Saturday's much winnable match vs 1-win Chicago.

Dallas 2.5u -167

Philadelphia vs Los Angeles
- Philly haven't played a match of 3+ goals this year and only 1 that even saw 2 goals (1-1 on last minute Seattle equalizer). They are the worst team, offensively, in every meaninful category including goals, shots, shots on goals, crosses, and corners. They did not put even one shot on goal in away meeting at LA but held the Galaxy to just a single goal themselves. LA getting a lot of possession but missing a ton of chances including an open net vs RBNY by their best player, Donovan. A bit concerned that Philly has to break out offensively at some point but they really don't have the players to do so. Le Toux appears to have been a one year wonder and is now playing like the USL player he was for his career while Mwanga and Mapp are useless on the flanks and Ruiz looks out of place this time around in MLS. But, defensively they've been awesome! Even without starting centerback and leftback in Portland they allowed just 1 goal. Those guys return so you have a 100% fit backline and top class keeper. LA b2b overs on road allowing goals in 89th and 88th but have played under in 20 of last 27 trips. Can see 0-0 easily here...

Phi/LA under 2.25 goals 3u +100

 

[rolltide]

Dal 1-0 +2.5
Phi 1-1 +1.5

17-13-2 +11.16 (staked 104.21, +10.7%)

back for weekend matches...

 

[rolltide]

one more will be posted later once odds settle...

Dallas vs Philadelphia
- under under under. Dallas cannot create chances without Ferreira and have no real proven scorer in the lineup. Their captain, Hernandez, scored Wed night on a penalty kick and that was his first league goal since 2002! Philly dead last in MLS in every offensive category and it's so bad that expansion Portland have more set piece goals this year than Philly has goals...Philly, btw, has just one goal from open play all year. Philly 3 road matches, 3 total goals...Dallas 5 home matches, 11 total goals. Since losing Ferreira (MLS MVP 2010) they've scored 3 goals in 3 matches and all 3 have been simple luck as one was meant for a cross that ended in net, the second a half volley mistake, and the last a phantom penalty against Toronto. In those 3 matches they've put just 10 shots on goal total but have posted b2b shutouts and should get a third in this one.

Dallas/Philly under 2.25 5u -102

San Jose vs Columbus
- I usually avoid teams that had a midweek match vs a rested team but the Earthquakes had such a long layoff before Wed night that they can't be tired at all. Teams, like Columbus, making a 3 time zone trip west haven't won in 22 matches in this league, 0-10-12 12/32, which is surprising considering that only Seattle and LA are teams you'd expect to be tough at home (other PST are SJ, Portland, Vancouver, Chivas USA). The Crew are 0-3-8 7/20 when playing an away match at least 2 time zones west with their last such win coming in August in 2009. SJ played their best half of the season at Vancouver (1-1 draw) and won the previous week at Portland in US Open Cup play so are certainly improving. These are odds that you'd expect to see if playing at Vancouver not at San Jose. SJ right now the worst home team in MLS, winless in 5 dating back to last year, but have to be at least slight favorites against an Eastern Conference team. I prefer the straight win over the asian level ball HC

San Jose 2.5u +150


LA Galaxy vs Sporting KC
- regardless of the incredibly low scores in MLS this year I believe this one is a shootout. Omar Bravo is out for one more week with KC but they'll line up in their normal 4-3-3 but now benching top centerback, Besler, for veteran Cesar who has been very poor. They have a major rest advantage over LA so they'll press from the outset as they can't defend at all. LA playing 3rd match in 7 days including a 3 time zone back/forth trip to Philly while Sporting KC have been off for 2 weeks. KC with 4 more road matches before their new stadium opens and they've allowed a goal in every match, 11 in 5 games, while scoring 7. Teams have played 5 straight unders but those KC teams weren't this high octane 4-3-3 attack-minded side while LA always like to put on a show at home. Beckham's having a great season and he was rested vs Philly so will be 100% while Juninho and Donovan are playing great. JP Angel and Barrett still aren't getting it done up front but it's not because of lack of chances...in fact Angel has 2-3 goals this year that were called back for marginal offsides. IMO we have the best offensive team in the west vs 2nd best in the East so I expect a wild match like LA/RBNY which miraculously ended 1-1. I call for 3-2 or even 2-3 as LA won't shut KC out and could give up several to a talented, rested offensive-minded side. LA 2nd in MLS in shots on goal while KC #1 in MLS in shots per game.

LA/KC over 2.5 4.5u -105

 

[fivewide]

Some excellent write-ups. Keep up the stellar season.

 

[guil0000]

nice sweep Wednesday. BOL on your weekend action. Your definitely in your confort zone with this MLS league

 

[rolltide]

New England vs Vancouver
- New England were the better team last wee vs Colorado but managed to hit the crossbar twice and miss an open, uncontested header from 5m, drawing 0-0. Here they get a very tired expansion team making their longest trip of the year, over 5200 km. I only got to watch the first half of Vancouver/San Jose on Wed night and it was as awful of a home performance as I'd seen in MLS. At HT the stats showed shots at 0-10, sog at 0-5, and corners at 0-5 with SJ unlucky to be up just 1-0. They clearly played better in 2H, not even allowing a SOG and just 1 corner, and scored at end of match to draw 1-1. This is the 7th match in just 21 days for Vancouver and 4th game in 10 days and they have a H2H for Canadian championship on tap with Toronto after this match so I expect some turnover in the lineup. As they're the most northwestern team in MLS their travel is brutal when coming east, which they'll now be doing for the 4th game in just 17 days. If they leave some guys home they'll rest up for midweek home match vs Toronto and then have a full week off before the away leg. Vancouver ended up allowing 20 shots to San Jose which is far too many in this league so I know NE will get plenty of chances but, unfortunately, they have the worst % of shots on goal in MLS. Their injury list got larger since last week and now Dabo, Domi, and Perovic are all out. The Revs midfield is intact and impressive with Joseph in between McCarthy and Feilhaber so they should dominate there and Lekic looks like the best striker on the field in this one as Vancouver's striking tandem of Harris and Hassli are injured. Also out for Vancouver are important MF Thorrington and FB Rochat who has been, by far, their top defender this year. Vancouver have one big danger area for me and that's Davide Chiumiento (assuming he plays) on the right midfield running at very shaky leftback Tierney who will be starting in place of Ousmane Dabo. If Tierney gets the job done there New England win this match, if not, they draw. After the midweek draw Chiumiento and the coach exchanged words in the press as Davide is unhappy playing on the flanks, but the coach responded that's where he'll continue playing. So, very poor morale in the Whitecaps locker room. Amazing odds move that must be opposed even if I don’t have a ton of trust in the Revs.

New England 5u +109

 

[rolltide]

FC Dallas 2-0 +2.50
San Jose 3-0 +3.75
LA Galaxy 4-1 +4.50
NE Revs 1-0 +5.45

21-13-2 +27.36 (staked 121.53, +22.5%)

 

[SunDodger]

Damn, 6-0 this week! Nice picks, rolltide.

Did you watch the Seattle vs. Portland game? The Sounders have all kinds of injury problems. I'm not impressed with Montero, either.

Also, why did they increase the playoff field to 10 teams? From what I was reading, now three teams from each conf. automatically qualify. And, every round will be a single game match played at the higher seed. Except for the quarterfinal round, which will be a two-leg aggregate series. Very confusing.

 

[rolltide]

yes stayed up for the match. was well played game with 2 good goals. Montero didn't do much but I thought he was the guy that laid the ball off on the goal? Might be wrong about that. Thought Seattle looked very tired in final 15' which is strange considering Portland has been so poor at the end of matches.

yes, 10 team playoff up from 8 last year. I guess they figure with adding 4 teams in 3 years (philly, montreal, vancouver, and portland) it was wise to expand the field. I'd prefer a single-table format with top 4 (or 6 if you want to give 1-2 seeds a bye into semis) going to playoffs but the league is too concerned that people will tune out when football season starts and their team can't finish toward the top. With 10 teams making it that means most have something to play for late in the year.

This year the 10 will be made up of top 3 in west, top 3 in east, and next 4 highest point leaders. Those 4 "wildcard" teams will play single elimination match on higher seed home field and the two that advance from wildcard play the top seeds from each conference. Quarterfinals are a two leg match but then semifinals and final are one leg. crazy format, IMO, but I've been complaining about it for quite a while.

 

[SunDodger]

Yeah, Montero had a nice assist on the goal. I just feel like he makes bad decisions with the ball on the counter attack.

The Sounders really miss Zakuani's speed on the wing. They have so many injuries right now. Erik Friberg should be back from an ankle sprain. But, Brad Evans (groin injury), Mauro Rosales(hamstring) and O'brien White (leg surgery) are all out. They don't have a lot of depth.

 

[rolltide]

yeah in MF and attack they're missing a lot of guys...problem is that when Brad Evans and White are considered irreplaceable, you were in trouble to begin with. White couldn't see the field for awful TFC but is now considered a big miss? only because Jaqua can't shake off injuries and N'Kufo up and quit...really though he's a 4th striker. Obviously the Zakuani injury is the biggest missing as he's a real game changer, and Mauro Rosales has shown nicely so far this year. I see Sounders fans on forums making a huge deal out of injuries but all teams go through injuries. It's a concern that they're all in the attack or midfield but still no reason to tie an expansion team at home. I might even back Sporting KC small this week as I love to oppose teams that are clearly feeling sorry for themselves and every comment out of a Sounders' mouth right now has to do with injuries. The fact is they got lucky to pull a point late in DC, got outplayed by Cbus and were lucky to take a point there, then very nearly lost to an expansion team at home. Their injury list wasn't long in everyone of those games but to hear Schmid and company talk about it, it's like they've used their reserve squad for 2 weeks.