MLS week 9

[rolltide]

YTD 11-10 +21.48 (+23.3%) staked 92.24
Regular 11-6 +23.48
Parlay 0-4 -2.00

RSL vs Houston
- i have a feeling we just won't see much offense tonight. First match was void of any offense expect for two penalties against Olave, so for sure he will be much better tonight. RSL not playing great on offense and Houston without Landin and possibly Ching, plus playmaker Cameron out. Only one over h2h in Salt Lake and I'll predict a 1-1 draw

RSL under 2.5 3.5u -117

 

[rolltide]

will post previews later

DC/Col over 2.5 6u +104
Phi/Dal over 2.5 6u -103

 

[rolltide]

sorry so late with previews but here you go:

Phil/Dal
- one day Dallas will actually net some chances. They have taken more shots and put more on goal than any other team in the league but are just 10th in goals scored. Philly's defensive issues and desire to play offensively at home should create a wide open match. Philly will have a slew of home games in July-Sept after new stadium opens but, until then, they will try to make these few home games be exciting to assure great attendance in the summer. They've played 5 straight over goals and have allowed at least 2 goals in every match. Dallas with 3 straight unders but games vs NE and DC were particularly offensive despite the lack of goals. The DC match featured 30 shots, the New England match 33 shots and they both have defenses similar to Philly so expect another 30+ combined shots and at least 10 good chances. Dating back to last year Dallas have scored in 8 straight on the road. Philly get their top scorer, Letoux, back after two straight matches missed and they've actually been much stronger offensively than I expected. While they didn't score in first game of season they netted in the next four straight before RSL blanked them last week in a very poor performance. Dallas will expect to beat expansion teams while Philly will look to thrill the 30k in attendance (especially against hated Dallas!) and I can see a really attractive match here. Could be a bit windy in case you want to wait until last minute forecast though right now it looks like it is as nice as can be.

DC/Col
- these are very similar teams with nice attacks but poor defenses. No important injuries for Rapids but DC still missing most of their regular defense along with Pontius and Quaranta...similar team as played in Dallas. In that match they were all over Dallas for first half but hit post and saw Hartman make a few crazy saves, then they fell apart. Similarly Colorado outplayed LA but just couldn't find the net, now for two straight games. Colorado with just one clean sheet this season and DC have yet to keep one. There hasn't been a home win in 21 previous meetings but the west is so far superior to the east you just can't take the home win despite the rarity of MLS away wins. Casey should be playing very inspired to prove Bradley wrong for snubbing him from USMNT in favor of out-of-form Findley and Cummings is playing great up front with him. Perfect weather tonight

 

[wannabewhale]

thanks for writeups
GL

 

[rolltide]

best to just go opposite my plays. no luck right now. great action in 1H of Philly game but only 2 goals

 

[SunDodger]

Sorry to see another rough day for you, rolltide.

I noticed you have been playing more totals lately, and it's been hurting you. 3-6 now overall. For me, totals are very tough to predict. And I try to stay away from them. You can have the game handicapped to go over, there will be tons of scoring chances, but nothing goes in the net. Same goes for the under, there will be a handful of scoring chances the whole game, and all of them somehow find the back of the net.

Not trying to be critical at all, as you obviously know more about this League than me. This is just a suggestion, maybe look to the side a little more. Your 8-3 record is solid.

After reading your write-up, I decided to play Colorado at pk +120, because DC. United is so weak and how you've pointed out that the west is stronger than the east. Luckily, it worked out.

It's a long season and I'm sure you'll bounce back.

 

[wannabewhale]

What a POOR showing by NYRB last night-I don't even remember 1 scoring attmept

 

[rolltide]

i don't mind criticism UW...no worries
in fact after watching another round of games I am definitely pulling back totals as, far too often, either good or bad luck is involved.
You will see me post overs when I like the away team but I really don't play too many away sides in MLS, at least historically. Of course if I'd have played Dallas PK and Colorado PK yesterday would have won a game and pushed the other. I also liked CUSA +.75 and would have lost half that bet, but also liked Seattle +.5 to redeem their LA performance (plus the whole west vs east deal). So, yes, I am fully intent on lowering my number of totals plays though Dallas overs must be tried, especially since we'll be getting great odds with their run of unders recently. If anyone watched the Philly game you'd have seen two disallowed goals for offside, two posts, a slew of Hartman miracle saves in 1H, and both LeToux and Cunningham simply missing the net alone on the keeper. Colorado hit two posts themselves but was not nearly the offensive showcase I expected.
A bit of a loss in confidence but I've been betting MLS extensively for a number of years and have always done well. There are ups and downs, for sure, but will forge ahead.

yes, ww, I had the game on in the corner and RBNY were awful. I don't remember one scoring chance and while I've not seen official stats yet I doubt they had 2 SOG. No way it was fatigue since only 1 regular played in US Open Cup vs NE so just mark it up to the far superior Western team playing defense after their 0-4 LA disaster

 

[wannabewhale]

Richards looked slow(hurt??) and that Ibupubupovich looked terrible as well. I expected a better show at home-at least a goal..

 

[wannabewhale]

Were you surprised with LA-Tor 0-0??

 

[rolltide]

not really. Preki is a hell of a coach and was in western conference vs LA for many years so he knew how to play them. toronto are coming together and will be tough every match now, but need to get someone other than dero scoring. barrett looked good vs LA but Toronto went offside 5 times. was not much of a match for entertainment value really...first 20' had chances on both sides then the rest was a real yawner especially for a guy like me in EST.

I'd probably put them tied with Chicago in the east but a large notch below cbus

will dallas or the crew be the first to defeat la? or will this unbeaten streak roll into June?