MLS week 8

[rolltide]

12-11-1 +7.38 (staked 82.77, +8.9%)

Chicago vs Vancouver
- tough situation for Vancouver with 3rd match in a week and playing 120' cup game in midweek with a majority of regulars including Hassli, Chiumiento, Dunfield, Teibert, Janicki, and Rochat. I don't like to play on the Fire at home as they're always the league's worst home team but big odds against a really out of form expansion club who are playing 5th game in 14 days including 3 road trips at least halfway across the country. Vancouver were pretty poor in cup match although they did advance, but barely. If not for a late goalpost by Montreal they'd have been kicked out of the cup at home. Neither are strong in MF and possession so will be a real strange game with a lot of attacks created out of nothing. Two of the worst defenses in the league as well though a repeat of 6 goals like Chi had against Por is unlikely. Chicago really need this game and will have newly signed Nazarit available after scoring 16 goals in 42 colombian league matches with ISF. I have a lot more trust in Chicago than in Vancouver and they should get the 3 points here as there won't be a more winnable match on their schedule in 2011.

Chicago 3.25u -120

 

[rolltide]

match in 3 hours

Portland vs Philadelphia
- Por 3rd game in 6 days but they rested all starters except GK in midweek cup loss. So a fully healthy Portland club home against a surprise Union squad who will miss 2 starting defenders. Philly amazing stats defensively vs last year are topping MLS with just 2 goals allowed in 6 games but offensively they're awful. They're dead last in shots (less than 8/game), shots on goal (3/game), corners (2/game), and of course goals (5). Away from home they've posted ZERO shots on goal in LA and 4 in Houston and have been outshot 29-11 overall. Portland a perfect 3-0-0 at home beating two top teams, Dallas & RSL, but have nearly given up big leads in final 15'. The addition of Diego Chara (Tolima) in MF is extremely important not only because it actually gives them a great creative MF but because he and FW Perlaza have played together for 15+ years. No team from the east has won in the west this year nor for the past 20 matches (0-9-11 11/30) and with Philly having some defensive lineup issues and playing first match of season on an artificial pitch I'll stake small on the expansion club.

Portland 2u +109

 

[rolltide]

New England vs Colorado
- MLS' top striking partnership, Casey/Cummings, is out of the match so Colorado will send in Folan and either Akpan or Amarikwa which is a huge decline in talent. Colorado are playing really poorly right now. They won in houston to steal 3 away points in midweek but I still don't know how it happened. Down 1-0 with 17' left they scored on a shockingly misjudged free kick from 45m then, late in match, scored on a throw-in which somehow found it's way to the ground, bounced around, and landed on a Rapids' foot for the winner. New England with a shockingly bad performance in LA last week but much healthier for this game with Coria and Perovic expected back as is Phelan. If Domi can't play at Leftback that will be a big miss but otherwise this is pretty much the best the Revs can trot out there...now just a question of if their best is good enough. With the Rapids missing Casey/Cummings this will be one of the few times all season where NE have the better strikers in a match and at least equal in MF. I still rate Col better in defense although they've not shown it for a month. They've posted just one clean sheet this year and have been outplayed in 5 consecutive matches. New England, like Chicago, not one of my favorite teams to bet but they're decent at home, near fully healthy, and have the advantage of a week's rest vs a team playing 3rd match in a week and b2b road games. (btw newest update is perovic and domi both out for NE)

NE Revs pk 2u -130

 

[rolltide]

Real Salt Lake vs Chivas USA
- RSL haven't scored in last 180' and have big striker problems today. Their 9 match road unbeaten streak and 18 match league unbeaten streak ended last weekend and 34 game home unbeaten streak ended in the CCL finals. IMO, they are clearly the best team in MLS but are still in mental shock at the lost opportunity to win the CCL. They'll get back to form and it will be through defense. They have allowed just 2 goals all season and still have the league's best central defense and holding midfielder who returns today. Their top 3 strikers are all battling some issues wtih Saborio out due to knee pain, Paulo Jr out with a hamstring injury, and Espindola mentally ailing with the chances he missed in the CCL final. Espindola starts up top but he's an awful finisher and he'll be paired with Arturo Alvarez, a midfielder forced to play in attack. They still have Javi Morales who might be the league's best playmaker but without Saborio they lack that one potent striker. Part of me thinks RSL will take out a lot of frustration on CUSA today but the other part thinks Fraser (CUSA coach, ex-RSL assistant) will have the defensive tactics to keep RSL at bay. 2-0 is my call here but I'm more convinced on the "0" than the "2"

RSL/CUSA u2.5 1.5u -110

possibly 1-2 more later...will be a busy evening!

 

[Dr.T]

GL. I saw odds on Chivas to score:

over 1.5 goals +300
under 1.5 goals -500

The under looks good but not at -500.

 

[rolltide]

big big odds move in NE match... can now get pk at +120

Columbus vs Seattle
- will be an ugly night in Cbus with rain and wind and likely very poor football on the pitch. Only thing that keeps this stake small is the possibility that Crew's centerback, Marshall, is out. He's one of the league's best and even with a woeful Sounders' attack it makes a difference. Seattle's coach will make a lot of changes in this match and really end up with a pathetic MF and FW, but still very solid defense. I actually rate and judge these teams very even except the Crew have better attacking options for this match. The Crew have allowed just 2 goals since week 1 while Seattle great in defense this year except at SJ. One troubling stat is the Sounders have scored in 10 of 11 away games in MLS but I just can't find a guy on their roster today who will score without a set piece. No Montero, Rosales, White, Zakuani...their 4 most likely goal scorers. In 2011 the Crew have allowed just 1 goal in 5 home games, scoring only 5 themselves! They have, IMO, a pathetic MF when it comes to creativity but are blessed with an excellent defense, solid keeper, and decent strikers. I don't see 3 goals in this one

Cbus/Sea under 2.25 2u -106

 

[rolltide]

just about the most pathetic round of matches the MLS has ever produced...simply embarrassing
Chicago 0-0 -3.90
Portland 1-0 +2.18
Revs 0-0 +0.00
RSL 1-0 +1.50
Cbus 1-1 +1.00

15-12-2 +8.16 (staked 95.04, +8.5%)

waiting on Red Bulls lineup to see if their def mf is playing...if not, taking over goals

 

[rolltide]

RBNY Lineup: Coundoul, Solli, Marquez, Ream, Miller, Richards, Ballouchy, De Rosario, Lindpere, Rodgers, Henry

Tainio is out replaced by Ballouchy which means no defensive coverage in front of Ream/Marquez who aren't good defensive centerbacks. Should be wide open...

LA/RBNY over 2.25 2u +100

 

[rolltide]

LA 1-1 -1.00

a round to be forgotten in MLS with the final 5 matches of the day all ending in draws, with 4 total goals scored. LA finds new ways to completely screw me on totals...under lost in 89th, under lost in 88th, and now 1-1 after 41 minutes only to see Donovan pussy foot (are you fn serious!) an empty net goal before HT then a host of chances, saves, and a post in the 2nd half. FRUSTRATING!

15-13-2 +7.16 (staked 97.04, +7.4%)

 

[guil0000]

yeah i agree that last one was frustrating can't believe not another one went in with all those chances