MLS week 7

[rolltide]

11-10-1 +7.05 (staked 77.77, +9.0%)

Friday night

Houston Dynamo vs DC United
- was reading the pregame notes MLS supplies each week and some really interesting ones for this game. First is DC have only gained 1 point in 6 matches at Robertson Stadium, scoring in just one match. But the stat that really stood out to me is that Houston MF Brad Davis has taken 2 more corners than the entire DC squad this season! The injury situation at Houston has improved and both Palmer and Cruz are likely to start. Brian Ching and J Taylor also say they're both ready to play but I wouldn't expect either to start even though Ching has tore up DC in his career. Also newly signed Koke is expected to be available so Houston suddenly near top health with some depth. Quick turnaround for DC playing 3rd match in a week after losing to NE in the US open cup match a few days ago. Very important MF Boskovic was injured in tha tmatch and several starters played (Onstad, Najar, Boskovic, Quaranta, Ngwenya, Davies, Potius) so expect Houston to try to pressure a potentially tired DC squad. While Houston leads the league with 96 shots in 6 matches DC is 4th from bottom with just 60. At home Houston's defense has been very strong while DC are up and down from game to game and really tough to bet on, or against. I thought the 1.80 odds were well written and now that price has jumped I stake on the Dynamo. This is Houston's only nationally televised game on FSC or ESPN all season so the players will have maximum motivation

Houston 2.5u +113

 

[Dr.T]

Nice winner on Houston by the score of 4-1.

Saturday should be a busy day in MLS action with several games to choose from.

 

[rolltide]

might just be the Houston game for me this week.

I think Cbus wins over a Hassli and Harris-less vancouver team but -160 and lower is too much for a team that struggles to score.
The over 2.5 shot up crazy in RBNY match but everything i read suggests KC will be defending heavy so I wouldn't be surprised at a 1-0 1-1
Colorado weather too big of a concern right now but they should see off Chicago though Folan, Gibbs, and Casey all likely out
Similarly, Seattle should beat a bad Toronto team but without Rosales, Zakuani, and White they're reliant on Montero for any goals
CUSA not a team to be laying odds of -110 despite winning last week

possible under pick tomorrow but so far nothing official tonight hno:

 

[rolltide]

FC Dallas vs LA Galaxy
- tough loss last time I bet on Galaxy away under as they conceded in final minute of regulation for 2-1 win. It doesn't change the fact that coach Arena approaches away games very differently than home games, looking for solid defense and 1-0 wins. 20 of their last 26 road matches have seen just 2 or less goals...they've posted a clean sheet in 12 of last 21 roadies (and 15 of last 26)...and they've scored 0 or 1 goal in 12 of last 15 roadies. With the loss of starting defender Leonardo for the season they'll be even more hesitant to pull the MF up except on strong counter chances and their defense really provides no offense at all now. Beckham is a gametime decision as the coach has allowed him to take the match off if he's too jet lagged after travelling 15000 miles in the past few days for the Royal Wedding, and without him they lose their top assist and set piece man. The big news for Dallas is the injury to 2010 MLS MVP David Ferreira. He's irreplaceable in attacking MF and is leading team in goals, SOG, and shots and is the most fouled player in the league (19 fouls suffered in 6 games). Both teams allowing about 10 shots per game which is near the top of the league and with Avila playing in place of Dallas it's hard to see them approaching 10 shots against LA today. Dallas home stats are littered with overs but defense was being heavily practiced this week as they can't get into 2-1 and 3-2 type games without Ferreira. Weather should be pretty awful tonight with heavy rain and 20+ mph. A withdrawn FC Dallas against a road conservative LA squad should see few chances and maybe just a single goal.

FCD/LA under 2.25 2u -107

 

[rolltide]

odds shot up in last hour (now +111 at pinnacle). beckham is going to start but weather for first 60 minutes of match should be pretty rough. going to add .36u on new odds for a full 2.5 unit stake (2.14 earlier, .36 now)

add under 2.25 .36u +111

 

[rolltide]

Hou 4-1 +2.83
Dal 2-1 -2.50

12-11-1 +7.38 (staked 82.77, +8.9%)

 

[guil0000]

that loss is a blow after the scoreless first half

 

[rolltide]

yeah. really sucks. first dallas goal was not even a real attempt...just threw his leg out and floated perfectly over Ricketts, off the post, and into the net. Then brek shea's winner was a mis-hit cross that found the corner of the net. he couldn't do that on purpose with a hundred tries. There was no offense at all in the match, 4 SOG vs 2 SOG, but 3 out of the 6 found the net.

That makes now 3 away goals in last 4 matches conceded by LA after the 88th minute...