MLS week 5

[rolltide]

8-6 +3.81 (staked 56.08, +6.8%)

two small ones tonight...

LA Galaxy at Toronto FC
- if you follow my writeups and previews you know I think little of Toronto. They were badly outplayed in SJ last week but got the draw courtesy of a silly back header into the box by a SJ defender which was tapped in by Gordon. Both striker Gordon and attacking MF, Santos, are out tonight which gives Toronto no attacking options at all. LA are a dominant defensive road team and after the travesty in DC will be fired up tonight. Donovan misses again but otherwise full. Will take the pk line to get money returned in case of draw and I'm calling for 1-0 Galaxy

LA Galaxy pk 1.25u -160


Real Salt Lake vs Colorado
- Champs from last two seasons meeting tonight but RSL is likely the best MLS team I've ever seen and absolutely unbeatable at home. Colorado without holding MF Mastroeni again which was a disaster in Dallas which is bad news as RSL's attack is much better than Dallas. Rapids also missing striker Casey but Folan playing great and dangerous in the air so not a huge miss. RSL rested starters last weekend so have a solid rest advantage, are the better team, untouchable at home, and supremely confident right now. RSL by a pair, 2-0

RSL 2u -145

 

[rolltide]

Sunday night

Houston Dynamo vs New England Revs
- The Dynamo played exceptionally well Sunday night showing their true potential after an ugly start to season while the Revs were handled by the reserve team of Real Salt Lake at home. After watching the Revs against DC, RSL, Van, and LA I can say they're absolutely horrible and are simply lucky to have 2 road points this year. If not for 3 goals disallowed for LA (1 close, 1 off, 1 which should have counted) and 4 points handed to them by horrendous ref Toledo (sent 2 off for Vancouver and allowed a clear handball goal in DC game) they'd be down with Chivas USA looking for first win. Getting punked at home by reserves last week was humiliating and they then stupidly got both of their central midfielders sent off in final 20 minutes. One of them, Shalrie Joseph, is heart and soul of team and without him they are very poor in MF. Domi is likely out as is Dabo but goalie Reis will play. They did sign a new striker from Silkeborg who is eligible to play his first game but I hold little stock in Scandinavian players trying to make it in rough, physical MLS in game 1. In time, he seems like a good prospect and was capped for Denmark but he doesn't know the league and can't be expected to produce quickly. They have no decent striker so without a midfield I can't see them scoring in Houston. Dynamo played well last week and cruised with 15-4 shots advantage but have never beaten the Revs in Robertson Stadium. Once Domi, Dabo, Lekic, Joseph, and Phelan are all back on the team this is not a bad Revs club but with only Lekic likely to see the field in first MLS match they are big underdogs in Houston. Not a big fan of back Dynamo in b2b weeks as their first three matches this year were bad, but Revs are a sad bunch right now and should be a home win.

Houston 2.75u -111

 

[rolltide]

Chicago vs Los Angeles
- Both teams playing 3rd match in a week with LA's being 3 road games and Chicago making a long trip to/from Portland so fatigue on both sides very likely. The Fire, for years, has been a bad home team but decent road team when it comes to scoring goals. Last year they led the league with 23 road goals but scored the second fewest home goals, 14. In 2009 they were bottom of league in home goals, 16, and second best in road goals, 23, so this has been going on for sometime now. As such just one of last 10 home games have seen at least 3 goals and it was last match vs the 4-3-3 offense of Sporting KC. They will face a very defensive 4-5-1 of LA today and the Galaxy are the best defensive road team in MLS. Of course the 4-1 loss at RSL was very poor but that was just the second time in last 20 road games they conceded more than 1 goal. Incredibly 20 of their past 25 road games have seen 2 or less goals scored and today they will solely rely on defense for a result as Kirovski, Beckham, Donovan, and Juninho are all missing in midfield and attack (3 suspended, LD hurt). Juninho is the only player to score from open play this year, Beckham their top assist man and free kick specialist, and Donovan the best offensive player in the league so it will be a slow game that likely will see limited chances. Chicago have scored goals on limited chances this season but they are just 10th in SOG and 14th in total shots. The Fire have put just 20 shots on frame in 4 games, LA just 21 in 6 games though the Fire have allowed a ton of goals. That'll be helped with the return of both regular keeper Johnson and central defender Mikulic. I don't think we'll see 3 goals today

Chi/LA under 2.25 goals 2u -112


Portland vs Dallas
- As I explained in my preview I figured Portland would have the best home atmosphere in MLS and they didn't disappoint in their first home game. The crowd was great, the team was good enough, but the quick turnaround against one of the league's best teams puts them as an underdog in my opinion. Dallas are an excellent away team and were even unbeaten in 12 on the road late last season but more than than they are a veteran team that is rested. Chicago were clearly overwhelmed this week by the weather and crowd but after 65' were the more dominant team. Portland scored 4x on just 6 SOG and with limited possession but their two solid forwards, Cooper and Perlaza, won't have the huge space they saw against Chicago who were playing with a reserve in central defense. This is Dallas' first time playing with best XI and if they can keep 11 men on the field I don't think they'll lose here. Portland looked gassed in final 25' on Thursday night and now play 65 hours later against a well rested team that has been off for 9 days. Dallas should dominate the midfield, have a better defense, and know how to win points on the road.

Dallas pk 2u +105

 

[rolltide]

week 5
LA 0-0 +0.00
RSL 1-0 +2.00
Houston 1-0 +2.75
LA 2-1 -2.24
Dallas 2-3 -2.00

10-8-1 +4.31 (staked 68.27, +6.3%)

 

[EstebanOchocinco]

i enjoy reading your write-ups rolltide

 

[guil0000]

i enjoy reading your write-ups rolltide

+1

 

[gobucks]

Me Also Rolltide...the MLS would be very hard to watch without a chance to have a wagering edge and your takes on the games certainly give punters an edge...thanks!