9-0-1 +21.70 (staked 28.38, +76.5%)
Seattle vs Houston
- Unfortunately Mauro Rosales is out for Seattle which lessens my confidence as does the fact that Houston is off for 22 days after this game so they will be fully concentrated. Houston's 2-0-0 record is impressive on paper...only. They are really not playing very well other than getting some good possession but are giving up a ton of chances and are very lucky to win both games, especially last week where San Jose dominated the match with 22 shots. Houston always great on set pieces through Brad Davis so that's my only worry in Seattle as the Sounders can fall asleep here and there on defense. Seattle a very deep team but Rosales is irreplaceable but the gap between the east and west is really big and Seattle is right there with RSL and LA as the best in the league. Houston missing Watson and Taylor with Jamaica, Ashe out injured, and Ching 50/50 to start as this match is on artificial turf. Houston are an outstanding defensive team so really a big change for Seattle after facing Toronto but I'll go with Estrada and Montero over Kandji/Ching/Bruin every day, especially considering Houston making a 3rd consecutive trip to the far West.
Seattle 5.5u -105 pinnacle/sbobet
Real Salt Lake vs Chivas USA
- right now you have to rate RSL as top team in MLS since they beat LA away before taking down RBNY, the two richest clubs in the league. What's more impressive is they've done it without some or all of Borchers (MLS top 5 central defender), Morales (MLS top 5 player), and Saborio (MLS top 5 striker) but all those guys are ready to play this week and perhaps even start. Likely they'll just keep the same formation from past 2 wins and sub in Morales and Saborio, possibly even Borchers but either way right now their starting XI and first 4-5 guys off the bench are the league's best. Chivas USA haven't been as poor as their 0-0-2 record would suggest but losing 1-0 at home to Houston and Vancouver (first ever away win for them) is not a good way to enter into a trip to Salt Lake. It looks highly unlikely that either JP Angel (concussion) or Alejandro Moreno (face) will play which means they have no capable striker on the field. RSL on a 5 match unbeaten streak against CUSA and dating back to last year CUSA have one league win in 13 overall and just one road win in 12. Even worse is their road record against Western Conference teams where they've won just one match (vs SJ april 2011) in 21 trips. Right now you'd have to say this is the #1 team in MLS against a bottom 3 side. I still don't like laying a goal head start in this league but CUSA can't beat RSL, RSL can only beat themselves.
Real Salt Lake -1 5.5u -104 12bet/IBC
RBNY vs Colorado
- RBNY's $13M salary is nearly $10M more than Colorado and, if reports are true, they're about to add another $7M+ in the form of Stephen Ireland which will fill the big void they have in attacking midfield. If that happens you'd have to put RBNY up there with SKC and Houston as the teams to beat in the Eastern Conference. Starting 0-0-2 with road losses at Dallas and RSL was not what they had in mind and there's a ton of pressure to win this week. Luckily for them I think Colorado is a perfect opponent. Colorado were very good against Columbus at home but just awful in Philadelphia. That 2-1 win gives us great line value against RBNY but for anyone that watched the game you still can't believe Philly lost. If that match was played in that fashion 20 times Colorado would win once. It was a complete domination from the opening whistle but Philly have awful strikers that can't finish...a problem the Red Bulls don't have with Henry and Cooper. Even before the Larentowicz red card Philly dominated play and ended with 20 shots. Jeff Larentowicz is out in defensive MF for Colorado which is a massive miss as he's perhaps the league's best (at least top 3 with Alonso and Beckerman) in that role and against a team with excellent offensive potential the Red Bulls should get a lot of chances. Most importantly the Red Bulls get Conde back in central defense and Marquez back in either defense or holding MF, depending on where Backe starts him. Both losses RBNY have suffered were pretty much carbon copies of one another as they played really bad football for an hour then outplayed opposition in final 30 minutes. Colorado is a level behind both RSL and Dallas and facing b2b 2000 mile trips east is never easy. These two have played really crazy matches in New York with 2-2, 3-1, 2-3, 4-5 final scores in last 4 meetings here so I think both will score and given the pressure on RBNY I believe they'll win a high scoring match on ESPN.
RBNY 5.5u -102 12bet/IBC
RBNY/COL over 2.5 3u +109 12bet/IBC
could be an add or two but these are the main ones for the weekend
Seattle vs Houston
- Unfortunately Mauro Rosales is out for Seattle which lessens my confidence as does the fact that Houston is off for 22 days after this game so they will be fully concentrated. Houston's 2-0-0 record is impressive on paper...only. They are really not playing very well other than getting some good possession but are giving up a ton of chances and are very lucky to win both games, especially last week where San Jose dominated the match with 22 shots. Houston always great on set pieces through Brad Davis so that's my only worry in Seattle as the Sounders can fall asleep here and there on defense. Seattle a very deep team but Rosales is irreplaceable but the gap between the east and west is really big and Seattle is right there with RSL and LA as the best in the league. Houston missing Watson and Taylor with Jamaica, Ashe out injured, and Ching 50/50 to start as this match is on artificial turf. Houston are an outstanding defensive team so really a big change for Seattle after facing Toronto but I'll go with Estrada and Montero over Kandji/Ching/Bruin every day, especially considering Houston making a 3rd consecutive trip to the far West.
Seattle 5.5u -105 pinnacle/sbobet
Real Salt Lake vs Chivas USA
- right now you have to rate RSL as top team in MLS since they beat LA away before taking down RBNY, the two richest clubs in the league. What's more impressive is they've done it without some or all of Borchers (MLS top 5 central defender), Morales (MLS top 5 player), and Saborio (MLS top 5 striker) but all those guys are ready to play this week and perhaps even start. Likely they'll just keep the same formation from past 2 wins and sub in Morales and Saborio, possibly even Borchers but either way right now their starting XI and first 4-5 guys off the bench are the league's best. Chivas USA haven't been as poor as their 0-0-2 record would suggest but losing 1-0 at home to Houston and Vancouver (first ever away win for them) is not a good way to enter into a trip to Salt Lake. It looks highly unlikely that either JP Angel (concussion) or Alejandro Moreno (face) will play which means they have no capable striker on the field. RSL on a 5 match unbeaten streak against CUSA and dating back to last year CUSA have one league win in 13 overall and just one road win in 12. Even worse is their road record against Western Conference teams where they've won just one match (vs SJ april 2011) in 21 trips. Right now you'd have to say this is the #1 team in MLS against a bottom 3 side. I still don't like laying a goal head start in this league but CUSA can't beat RSL, RSL can only beat themselves.
Real Salt Lake -1 5.5u -104 12bet/IBC
RBNY vs Colorado
- RBNY's $13M salary is nearly $10M more than Colorado and, if reports are true, they're about to add another $7M+ in the form of Stephen Ireland which will fill the big void they have in attacking midfield. If that happens you'd have to put RBNY up there with SKC and Houston as the teams to beat in the Eastern Conference. Starting 0-0-2 with road losses at Dallas and RSL was not what they had in mind and there's a ton of pressure to win this week. Luckily for them I think Colorado is a perfect opponent. Colorado were very good against Columbus at home but just awful in Philadelphia. That 2-1 win gives us great line value against RBNY but for anyone that watched the game you still can't believe Philly lost. If that match was played in that fashion 20 times Colorado would win once. It was a complete domination from the opening whistle but Philly have awful strikers that can't finish...a problem the Red Bulls don't have with Henry and Cooper. Even before the Larentowicz red card Philly dominated play and ended with 20 shots. Jeff Larentowicz is out in defensive MF for Colorado which is a massive miss as he's perhaps the league's best (at least top 3 with Alonso and Beckerman) in that role and against a team with excellent offensive potential the Red Bulls should get a lot of chances. Most importantly the Red Bulls get Conde back in central defense and Marquez back in either defense or holding MF, depending on where Backe starts him. Both losses RBNY have suffered were pretty much carbon copies of one another as they played really bad football for an hour then outplayed opposition in final 30 minutes. Colorado is a level behind both RSL and Dallas and facing b2b 2000 mile trips east is never easy. These two have played really crazy matches in New York with 2-2, 3-1, 2-3, 4-5 final scores in last 4 meetings here so I think both will score and given the pressure on RBNY I believe they'll win a high scoring match on ESPN.
RBNY 5.5u -102 12bet/IBC
RBNY/COL over 2.5 3u +109 12bet/IBC
could be an add or two but these are the main ones for the weekend
