MLS week 3

[rolltide]

YTD 4-0 +18.00

didn't like last round at all but several will be taken this week. up first...

Chicago Fire vs SJ Earthquakes
- SJ will have 2 weeks to think about their 3-0 opening day home loss vs RSL and I consider that a bad thing, not a good thing. Chicago played last week so have 1 extra match and are now just 0-1-1 on the year but played well in both games. San Jose, no matter NYRB's streak, are the league's poorest traveler in the past few years with just 1 road win in 24 including a 20 match winless streak. While I think they have talent in MF and attack the defense is just too poor to win more than 1-2 road games this year especially against a quality club like Chicago. They started the year losing at New York but forced Coundoul into a number of good saves and only allowed 3 SOG. Last week they came from behind twice to draw in Colorado so this will be their home opener. Chicago have certainly underperformed at home over the years but San Jose has been a nice cure for them as Chicago are 4-2-1 vs the Quakes including 3-1-0 at home. John and McBride have looked very dangerous in attack and should have a field day against the league's worst defense. Still, until Chicago can learn to treat the home ground as a fortress I can't bet larger than medium on them even though the true price in this game should be 1.75 (-133)

Chicago 5.5u -107​

 

[BETTHEFARMBABY]

great start tide very nice man, how have u done years past in the mls?? keep up the good work man:toast:

 

[cstock]

do u mean chicago under 2.5 goals or chicago ml?

 

[hm2.0]

also on chi...excl beginning...gl

 

[rolltide]

BTF, very well
cstock, 5.5u = 5.5 units (or just read my preview)
hm, thanks

Houston vs LA Galaxy
- these teams have scored exactly 1 regulation goal in their 3 2009 meetings with last two ending 0-0. The Dynamo won 2-1 vs RSL last week but both goals were scored on spot kicks but rest of the game they put only 2 shots on RSL's net, allowing only 3. The big news was their key, and only decent, striker Brian Ching went down with an injury and will not play. Still, these are the two best defenses in the West so goals will not come easily. In 2 games Houston have allowed jujst 4 SOG and 6 corner kicks and LA have been even better. In their two games they gave up just 3 SOG and 3 corners but are really not functioning well offensively. My pick for golden boot, Edson Buddle, has scored in both matches but they're not creating many chances and have totaled just 5 SOG themselves. In matches away from Home Depot Center last year, LA really stifled opponents allowing more than 1 goal to just 1 of last 8 hosts and not allowing 3+ goals since the Gullit days. This has all the makings of a boring match between two of the best teams, and the two top defensive teams, in the Western Conference.

Houston u2.5 goals 3.5u -140

 

[rolltide]

by the way when i say 3.5u -140 that is risking 4.9 to win 2.5

Real Salt Lake vs Seattle
- after 2 weeks and despite just a 1-0-1 record RSL has impressed me the most. They dismantled San Jose away, going up 3-0 in under an hour then lost at Houston. They led 1-0 in Houston but Jamison Olvae handed the game away allowing two penalties, both converted. So clearly they must do something about their fouls as Olave had the worst match of his career, responsible for both pk's. They've committed now 30 fouls in two games (way too many!) otherwise would be 2-0-0 with 2 away wins. They come back home to Rio Tinto where they were the #1 home team in MLS 2009, losing just 1 time with a +23 goal differential. Seattle have only played Philly and NY Red Bulls at home thus far posting a 1-0-1 record themselves but allowing a road win to NY for the first time in years. Truth is they were the better team but if you can't score on NY at home and you can't score on a 10 man expansion team for 57' at home, you're having problems on offense. Seattle are a quality away team, playing very defensively and physically, while RSL much more of a finesse club for sure. But you've got to grab odds like this when RSL are at home. Home open for the champs against a team that has not impressed against possibly the two easiest home matches they'll have all season.

RSL -1/4 2.5u -125

 

[rolltide]

Chivas USA vs NY Red Bulls
- really strange that bookies just opened this bet now, while rest of MLS has been available for 3 days. Anyway, if Chivas USA weren't so shorthanded with injuries this would be my maximum 10u stake, but their missings are really important so clearly knocks my confidence down. Still, plenty of value as 2+ is insane offer as 1) 5 western conference teams are superior to all eastern teams except Columbus, 2) while 2-0-0 red bulls is impressive on paper the product on the field doesn't do anything for me, and 3) CUSA were much improved in game 2 versus game 1.
- first to the injuries as Chivas USA may have to do without top striker, Galindo, and top defender, Bornstein. They were already so shorthanded in central defense that Bornstein, a natural LFB, was used in the middle this year because his LFB backup, Jazic, is very solid. So this week they will have an all-costa rican central defense of Umana, who got beat last week vs LA, and Delgado, an MLS newbie that just signed a few days ago. Still, both are internationals and play side by side with Costa Rica so in time they will be a great pairing but Delgado doesn't know MLS and Umana just returned to league himself this year so clearly that is a concern for me. MF is stacked, really love it, but attack looks to be a Padilla/Santos combo both of whom missed incredible chances vs LA (Santos' 2 misses are epic if you fined on youtube) unless the often-injured Galindo recovers in time. Still they dominated the final 15' against LA missing crazy chances which is a positive going into NYRB match as the Red Bulls are nowhere near LA when it comes to defense. Of course starting the year 0-0-2 at the Home Depot Center means anything but 3 points here is crisis time...but they have never lost to the red bulls at home or conceded more than 1 goal so a perfect opponent IMHO.
- YAY, the red bulls won an away match! After posting a 0-7-20 road record in last 24 months they won in Seattle thanks to wasted chances by the Sounders. They have allowed a league-high 31 shots in two matches while committing a league-high 33 fouls which is normally not the way to win games. But with some good goalkeeping and, well, luck they are 2-0-0 but still haven't gotten points in consecutive away matches since mid-May 2008 and could be in for a big letdown on Saturday afternoon. They stayed on the west coach all week so fatigue due to travel is not an issue but it also knocks them out of normal away match routine.
predict Chivas USA 2-0

Chivas USA 7u +102

 

[hm2.0]

thornton gets start in goal...whether he can meet last season's excl. perf in his first start of the season remains to be seen. bornstein back at lb. santo and chijindu up top

 

[hm2.0]

let me amend my last post in regards to chivas usa, as bornstein is lw mid today.

also, philly union has fred avail - susp last match. philly also has former puerto rico islanders (usl 1st div) d arrieta avail. dcu pontius healthy but likely to be on the bench.

 

[hm2.0]

jazic knee inj forces bornstein back to lb. padilla in...don't know why he was left out again from the starting xi and he slides into mid. chijindu has done well, while santos is borderline worthless.

comatose first 15 min came to life, somewhat, when yet another mls ref swallowed his whistle - denying chivas usa a penalty. rbny went on counter and produced consec. corners, the 2nd of which almost netted a goal in a melee in front of chivas' goal.

both clubs missed excl chances. kandji should've buried a corner which he headed just high while unmarked. chijindu flubs his shot on a breakaway before the break. even first half.

 

[hm2.0]

opening min. and chivas usa gets a gift. coundoul own goal as he watches padilla shot deflect and hit off the post only to see it boune towards him...gets of his arse and fumbles it into his own netting. ^<<^

dcu pontius will get the start. moreno will be on the bench.

 

[hm2.0]

padilla notches the 2nd goal in added time on def. breakdown as chivas usa wins 2-0. guess he's in the next starting lineup.

galindo limped off after coming in as sub...he'll never regain his '07 form.

backe brought in 2 strikers for 2 mids...still didn't generate much. angel has been disappointing.

hope the rumours regarding an henry transf in the summer are true.

 

[wannabewhale]

the Union get a nice win in home opener
bad red card by DC-no real need for it

 

[rolltide]

round 3 recap
week 2-2 +3.19
ytd 6-2 +21.19

CUSA 2-0 - went as predicted. NYRB no action at all but CUSA went ultra-defensive after scoring their nutty goal. better team won

LA 2-0 - i was really pissed at 2-0 HT as there were only 3 SOG in 1H, all by LA. even slower 2H with 2 SOG, both LA, as Houston incredibly finishes a home match without 1 SOG

Chi 1-2 - 3 words...Fvck Collins John

RSL 2-2 - got a bit of $ back with last minute equalizer. Just no coin to be made laying half goal against Seattle on road as they play super defense and look for set pieces to score on offense. Seattle 2 SOG and both went in.


re: Toronto - i really wanted to bet against them particularly with Shalrie back in NE's lineup but the legend of Preki kept me from it. Well, some kid named Zach Shiwalski put in a hat trick in 11' against them (who needs Twellman?). Seriously, was de Guzman injured? I saw he didn't start but read nothing about injury then saw he came in at 60'. Could Preki be that much of an egomaniac to sit his best player for an hour then put him in down 3-1? (note to self: Preki might actually suck)

 

[wannabewhale]

Union vs TFC tonight Tide??