MLS week 22

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44-37-6 +9.93 (staked 291.35, +3.4%)

Sporting KC vs Portland

- Portland in another bad spot this midweek. Just 70 hours after playing in the brutal heat and humidity of Houston Sun night they must play in similar conditions in Kansas City, against a team that is much better than Houston and well rested. Portland were poor last night quickly getting down 2-0 and should have been 3-0 if ref saw ball cross the line. They decided to sit back and allow Houston all the possession which is very tiring in that weather. They did catch a goal back off a deflection and nearly tied it in 89th but I thought they were very poor, barely creating any chances and relying on Perkins to come up with some miracle saves.This will be their 4th match in just 14 days while KC haven't played since Aug 6. Their long unbeaten run at home ended that day against Seattle but the Sounders are a top 5 team in this league while Portland are outside of the playoffs. KC in middle of long home stretch and with some tough matches against Dallas, LA, and Houston coming up this is really a must-win as is the DC match on Sunday. They're the only team in MLS to play an offensive 4-3-3 and took apart Portland in earlier meeting 2-1 away. Unfortunately Bravo is suspended for the match but KC is one of the deepest teams in the league and have played a lot of matches without him. The real concern is that starting center back Aurelien Collin, one of the best in MLS, remains injured but Portland have pathetic forwards. Game time temps in mid 80's but with heavy humidity which is something guys in Portland simply don't have to deal with. Portland without two starters in Johnson (hurt) and Lovel Palmer at right back which could be a disaster with KC's left sided attacking prowess. My odds are 1.65 so not a lot of value but worth a smallish bet.

Sporting KC 2u -131
 

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New England vs Houston
- heavy odds move in Houston's favor and probably for good reason as the Revs stink, but I'll oppose with a minimal bet. With Benny and Shalrie in central midfield the Revs are far stronger there than Houston is and they have a major "due" factor not winning at home since mid May. Houston are a very different team on the road and with the parity in this league it's hard to see them as such big favs on the pk line. Again, minimal bet

NE Revs pk 1u +115
 

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SKC 3-1
NE 1-1

45-37-7 +11.93 (staked 294.97, +4.0%)
 

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New England vs RBNY
- you'd probably guess that I'm not backing the Red Bulls even though I think they finally get a win here. I do believe the Revs will score and, since I like RBNY to win that makes it a play on over goals. Earlier match this year in NY was wide open with 3 in the net and a missed penalty. They away team is actually winless in 12 in this series but we've seen overs in 3 of the last 5 matches including 3-2 in NE last year and 4-0 in NE in 2009. I never bet an over unless the stats point toward each team scoring which they do here. NE has scored and conceded in 7 of their past 9 and in 5 straight while RBNY have both scored and conceded in 3 of their past 4 and in 14 of last 17 this year. NE with backup keeper as is RBNY so let's call it a 2-3 final.

NE/RBNY over 2.5 2.5u -107
 

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time for a parlay system. I see a lot of very even matches tonight so I put them in round robin parlays of 6 bets of two-teamers and 4 bets of 3-teamers. As always if it profits I post as 1 in the win column, if not I post as a 1 in loss column. Total stake tonight is 4u

prices from pinnacle: 4 games in action are...
Cbus/Phi 3.40
Hou/RSL 3.32
Dal/ Sea 3.31
Col/Cusa 3.47

4 team (6) doubles
Cbus X + Hou X .5u to win 4.64
Cbus X + Dal X .5u to win 4.63
Cbus X + Col X .5u to win 4.90
Hou X + Dal X .5u to win 4.49
Hou X + Col X .5u to win 4.76
Dal X + Col X .5u to win 4.74


4 team (4) trebles
Cbus X + Hou X + Dal X .25u to win 8.84
Cbus X + Hou X + Col X .25u to win 8.79
Cbus X + Dal X + Col X .25u to win 8.76
Hou X + Dal X + Col X .25u to win 8.53
 

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RBNY 2-2 +2.50
Parylays -4.00

tonight two bets, no writeups

Chicago/Toronto over 2.5 2u +105
Sporting KC 4u +122
 

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Chi 2-0 -2.00
SKC 1-0 +4.88

47-39-7 +13.31 (staked 307.64, +4.3%)
 

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