MLS week 13

[rolltide]

28-17-2 +28.22 (staked 164.39, +17.1%)

Sporting KC vs Chicago
- after a ridiculous 10 game road trip to begin the season Sporting KC will open up the brand new Livestrong Park and play 17 of their final 24 matches there. KC are a decent team , despite the 1-3-6 road trip, and are going to win a lot of matches this summer. They're playing pretty well in the past 3 weeks and that should continue with the plethora of home matches coming in the next few months. Back on May 21 they outplayed Seattle but allowed a header off a stoppage time corner to lose 1-0. They then hammered New England in the US Open Cup and have drawn both Colorado and Toronto in the past 10 days. They do have some guys on Gold Cup duty but were saved their top two offensive players when Bravo (Mex) and Bunbury (USA) weren't selected for the tournament. Chicago changed coaches but still can't win, now 11 overall without a victory, but they did beat KC at home 3-2 early in the year. That match, if anything, showed that KC is a superior team as they had top player, Bravo, sent off at the half hour mark and nearly came back from a 2-0 deficit with just 10 men. Chicago have just one guy missing for the Gold Cup, Marco Pappa, but he's their best player and one of MLS' most creative. While Chicago are not in good form they do have talent on offense and have scored in 7 straight road games (including USOC) but have allowed 18 goals in their past 8 trips. KC have given up a bunch of goals this season as they play an offensive 4-3-3 and they're limited this week with starting MF and his replacement (Aurvay and Rocastle) playing with national teams. I think we'll see some goals in this one despite Chicago's new defensive approach under Klopas, but I believe a bit more strongly in KC opening the new crib with a victory and both teams scoring. Sell-out crowd for the stadium opening which is probably a first for KC in many years.

Sporting KC 3.5u +115
KC/CHI over 2.5 goals 2.5u +114

 

[jimmyshivers]

Nice start rolltide and I like your angle tonight with SKC here. Been getting some results lately and should get a nice boost in the new building. Good luck

 

[rolltide]

Columbus vs Real Salt Lake
- these team met just before the MLS season in a 2 leg match in the Concacaf CL. The home leg for Cbus was a very slow 0-0 draw and RSL was at full strength that day. The Crew are an offensively inept club, have scored in the first half in just one match all season, and now have top scorer Renteria injured. They'll also be without top assist-man, Dilly Duka and normal striking sub, Tommy Heinemann (8 SOG, 3rd on team), while Robbie Rogers (3rd on team in goals, 2nd in shots) is with USA in Gold Cup. That's not good considering RSL have only allowed goals in 3 of 10 matches this season and will have Olave back from suspension in central defense. In fact, defensively, I rate Cbus's two centerbacks only behind Olave/Borchers of RSL so we have the best central defenses in MLS going h2h. RSL have played all 4 road matches under 2.5 goals this year and 12 of their past 15 MLS road games have failed to reach 3 goals. The Crew defense has been coming unglued in May after posting 4 consecutive shutouts but they are still 2-4 o/u at home. RSL's offense has been completely poached by the Gold Cup and, though it didn't matter much in easy 2-0 win over expansion Vancouver, it will matter a lot against Cbus. In addition to the injuries of MLS MVP Javi Morales and solid striker Paulo Jr, they're without #1 striker Saborio, top right MF Alvarez, MF Will Johnson, and goalie Nick Rimando. With Morales/Paulo Jr/Saborio/Alvarez/Johnson they're without 4 of their top 5 players in shots on goal and really leaves only Espindola as a dangerous player. I don't think this will be a very pretty match to watch and 0-0 for 2nd time this year is my call

Cbus/RSL under 2.25 2.5u -120

 

[rolltide]

big odds move against me in RSL. now u2.25 is +100

 

[Going4Broke]

big odds move against me in RSL. now u2.25 is +100

I see -147 for U2.5 on 5dimes.

 

[rolltide]

Cbus 2-1 -3.00 late goals are robbing me blind this year

 

[rolltide]

KC 0-0 -6

28-20-2 +19.22 (staked 173.39, +11.1%)

 

[rolltide]

Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake
- very disappointing midweek result as RSL allowed only 3 shots on goal in the match but threw away a 1-0 lead with 15' left and lost 2-1. They had almost no offense themselves scoring only on a corner kick from a defender which was one of just 4 shots on goal, and no player in this entire match even registered 2 SOG in the game. So, rough under loss for sure but coming right back with the under again as nothing has changed in my thought at all and, in fact they're playing an even better defensive team this week. RSL lead the league with 6 goals allowed in 11 matches and Philly are 2nd with just 10 allowed in 12 games and only 3 at home. They are an offensively challenged group and if you throw out the 6 goal outburst in Toronto they'd be dead last in goals scored in the league. At home they are 1-5 o/u this year and 4-12 o/u dating back to mid-2010. RSL on road now 1-4 o/u this year and 4-12 o/u since mid-2010. Shouldn't be many chances and is really an even match. After having the defense falter in 2H for the 2nd time in 3 matches RSL should be very conservative in this one.

Phi/RSL under 2 4u +105


New York Red Bulls vs New England
- if the Red Bulls defense finally shows up until final whistle I think we see a 1-0 game. Last match they conceded on a cross just :17 left in stoppage time and Columbus drew them 1-1 (and took half my bet with it). That game didn't have much offense at all, just 3 SOG by each team and 8 combined corners. The game b/w RBNY and Cbus isn't as big as RBNY/NE but the Revs know how to defend, but are offensively inept. It took them incredibly 82 minutes last week before putting a ball into the opposition (Dallas) penalty area! They finished with just 2 attempted shots all match and have now played 5 consecutive matches posting 3 or less shots on goal. The Red Bulls again without both central defenders, striker, winger, and volante all at Gold Cup but still have Henry up front and Lindpere in midfield which is likely enough to score on poor New England. They are capable of big offensive outputs but without Agudelo/Richards/De Rosario plus the two offensive-minded center-backs, they are not nearly in full offensive mode right now. Defensively they've allowed 6 goals in last 3 home games so I'm not ready to lump a big stake on them as they are under a lot of pressure tonight to win, which they've not done since April. New England have 3 very good offensive players (Feilhaber, Perovic, Joseph) but only Joseph will play as the other two are hurt. There has been just a single 3+ goal match when these teams have been in New Jersey with scores of 2-0, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 2-2, 0-2, 0-1, 0-0 with just 15 total goals in last 9 games.

RBNY/NE under 2.5 2u +100

 

[rolltide]

Phi 1-1 +0
NY 2-1 -2

Dallas vs Sporting KC
- I'll certainly be backing KC a lot this summer but they really couldn't be in a worst situation than they are today and if Dallas had Ferreira playing this would be a max stake bet. I backed KC in midweek, of course, but really everything went wrong for them. Their very talented but always injured MF, Ryan Smith, pulled a leg muscle in 1H and was subbed out. Then, GK Neilsen handled ball outside the area and was sent off. All looked to be saved when Omar Bravo was violently taken down in stoppage time but the ref incredibly ignored the penalty and the match ended 0-0. Bravo hurt his back on the play and is out today while Smith didn't make the trip either with his leg issue and long-term injured FW Warzycha remains out. Of course Neilsen is suspended as is very imp DF Harrington (9 starts). Then you've got the Gold Cup missings which include Rocastle, Espinosa and Aurvay in MF plus Shavar Thomas in defense. They play a 4-3-3 and still can use Sapong/Kamara/Bunbury in attack but Bunbury is woefully out of form, Kamara looked exhausted in midweek after getting back from a Sierra Leone friendly, and Sapong is just a rookie. The MF is incredibly weak as you'd expect with the entire area missing and the team has to play 3rd match in a week after an emotional midweek draw opening up their new stadium after 10 straight road games. Now the clubhouse can potentially be an issue as KC just brought back 32-year old defender Nick Garcia who has a long and ugly history with FW Kei Kamara. Upon hearing the news Kamara tweeted "What's a 50 yrs old really gonna do for my team, this is gotta be a joke." and "Man I need Ryan Smith and Craig Rocastle on this trip" so he's not a happy camper.

And if KC is the coldest team in the league (1 win this year) then Dallas is the hottest. They lost MLS MVP David Ferreira so changed to a very defensive style and haven't stopped winning. They're now unbeaten in the 9 games since Ferreira was injured posting 6 clean sheets. They haven't allowed a home goal in 398' and beat KC in both matches last year. KC struggling this year against teams currently in playoff spots as they lost 1-0 in seattle, 4-1 at LA, 1-0 in NY, 1-0 at Cbus and Colorado is the only decent team they've taken a point off all year. Dallas not only held the NE Revs goalless last week but didn't allow a ball into their own penalty area for more than 80'. They lack a lot of offense with Ferreira out but it's still worth a decent stake to back them against a very shorthanded KC team playing in a tough scheduling spot without their entire MF and keeper. KC next week will be in a much better position to win...at home against beatable team, Neilsen/Harrington/Bravo/Smith all likely back, Aurvay and Rocastle returned from Gold Cup...today, not so much

Dallas -.75 6u +100

 

[rolltide]

Dallas -6u

just glad this week has finally ended. worst mls week in 4 years

dallas showed up assuming that's all they needed to do to win the game. KC, playing without 10 guys, had other thoughts

28-22-3 +11.22 (staked 185.39, +6.0%)