MLS week 11

[rolltide]

23-14-2 +27.75 (staked 133.87, +20.7%)

RBNY vs Colorado
- definitely a bet against Colorado, not for RBNY. The champs are playing terrible football despite going unbeaten in 5. They were pathetic in the 0-0 home draw against a very tired, shorthanded, and untalented TFC club playing withouth their best players and were held to 2 shots on goal and 3 goal attempts. They lack a single creative midfielder and can't score without Cummings up front plus Folan (3rd striker) also injured. Casey looks totally out of shape and they lack any innovation in attack. Defensively they've been very good and posted 2 shutouts in last 3 but they won't hold RBNY off the board like they did NE and TFC. The Rapids haven't played a single decent match in over a month and facing one of the 3 best teams in MLS on a short week, away, isn't the time to likely turn it around. RBNY suddenly scoring goals and got the late equalizer on a Ballouchy header against Houston over the weekend. They have one day more of rest to prepare for this match and should be no more than 1.60 for a home win against the Rapids.

RBNY 3.75u -130

 

[rolltide]

Seattle vs Dallas
- another Dallas under for me as they simply create nothing without Ferreira in midfield. Just like RSL and Philly they're playing another offensively inept team in Seattle. The Sounders couldn't break down one of the league's worst defenses, Sporting KC, until scoring in stoppage time off a corner kick on just their 2nd SOG all match. In the past few matches Seattle have posted 2 SOG (1-0 vs Sporting KC), 3 SOG (1-1 vs Portland), and 1 SOG (1-1 at Cbus) for a pathetic 6 SOG in last 3 matches and really only Montero getting creating any chances at all. Talent-wise they really aren't this bad but if you can't produce chances against KC and POR I can't expect any different against Dallas. Hartman, Dallas GK, on a great run right now with 4 straight shutouts and no goal allowed in almost 400 minutes. In fact, since David Ferreira was injured in the Vancouver game they've allowed just 1 goal in 500 minutes so they've certainly turned it up defensively. Both squads are in the top 5 in generating corner kicks so the real danger here is on set pieces since neither are creating chances during the run of play. Still, just a small bet here as Seattle do not have a solid defensive record at home as they've allowed at least 1 goal in 9 of past 11 matches played here though they've allowed just 1 goal in past 350+ minutes. Rain expected all day in Seattle (shocker, right?) so slippery turf to add to the lack of playmakers and in-form strikers on the field.

Sea/Dal under 2.5 2u -150

 

[acehigh]

Any thoughts on tonights cup game?

 

[rolltide]

sorry ace...i don't troll around here much at night. had no thoughts but I knew Chicago sent full team to SJ since Sunday so were anticipating they'd use a top squad, which they did. SJ used a rather poor side but still got to extra time....ended up Chicago advancing in penalties. Tonight's cup game a bit more interesting from the standpoint that a win is badly needed for KC's confidence and it's the first time they've played a match all year where they'll have some fans. Still i don't bet US cup games seriously...

update on Colorado...MF Jamie Smith did not travel to New York which is big news. He's played in all 11 of their games, leads the team in goals, assists, SOG, and leads all MF in shots taken. Makes bet even better and pinnacle still with -132

 

[rolltide]

RBNY 2-2 -4.87
Dal 1-0 +2.50

24-15-2 +25.38 (staked 142.49, +17.8%)

back for weekend...

 

[rolltide]

Real Salt Lake vs Seattle
- no idea where goals will come from here. RSL have already released Alvarez and Saborio for the Gold Cup and Paulo Jr is still injured which means an attack made up of Espindola and "?" with no creative midfielder behind them as team MVP Javi Morales is on the shelf. Since he got injured they've netted 1 goal in 245 minutes and that was a stoppage time mini-miracle playing against 9 men. They put just 2 SOG vs Dallas and another 2 SOG in previous 0-0 draw vs Houston and are now 17th (out of 18) in MLS in shots taken. Seattle struggling to score since their most exciting player, Steve Zakuani, was ambushed and they haven't scored more than 1 goal in any of the past 5 games, 3 of which were played against bad defenses (KC, POR, DC). Their coach hinted that he's benching their top forward, Montero, in favor of Fucito based off of the midweek performance vs Dallas where Fucito was the most dangerous player on the field. If you can't score multiple goals against KC, Por, DC they you have no chance against RSL who far and away lead MLS in goals allowed, with just 2 in 8 matches. RSL with 6 straight unders, Seattle with 4 straight. Sounders very good defensive team and have allowed more than 1 goal just once in past 9 matches. Without Alvarez, Morales, Paulo Jr, and Saborio they're missing 4 goals (out of 8 scored), 4 assists (out of 11 given), 13 SOG (out of 29), and almost half the team's shots taken as Saborio/Morales/Alvarez were top 3 in that category. RSL with big advantage of altitude against a team that played in midweek but I don't trust their offense enough to lay -.75. If the -.5 line creeps above 1.80 I might add a home win

RSL/SEA under 2.5 2.5u -150

 

[wannabewhale]

Philly under again??

 

[rolltide]

not for me...toronto not good enough defensively to play under a 2 total plus Philly have conceded in all but one road match since entering the league.

 

[rolltide]

I can make a case for basically every game to draw today and will use a small system, staking 3u, on 2-team parlays using four of the matches to draw. odds from Pinnacle:
Toronto/Philly +240
NE Revs/LA +235
Chicago/SJ +255
Houston.Dal +232

win or lose will count this as a single bet. if profit, will be posted as a win if not, will be a loss of 3u. To profit, at least 2 of the above must draw. Each parlay is 0.5u and will be 6 parlays total: (X = draw)

Tor X + NE X .5u to win 5.20
Tor X + Chi X .5u to win 5.54
Tor X + Hou X .5u to win 5.14
NE X + Chi X .5u to win 5.45
NE X + Hou X .5u to win 5.06
Chi X + Hou X .5u to win 5.39

 

[Dr.T]

Real Salt Lake vs Seattle
- no idea where goals will come from here. RSL have already released Alvarez and Saborio for the Gold Cup and Paulo Jr is still injured which means an attack made up of Espindola and "?" with no creative midfielder behind them as team MVP Javi Morales is on the shelf. Since he got injured they've netted 1 goal in 245 minutes and that was a stoppage time mini-miracle playing against 9 men. They put just 2 SOG vs Dallas and another 2 SOG in previous 0-0 draw vs Houston and are now 17th (out of 18) in MLS in shots taken. Seattle struggling to score since their most exciting player, Steve Zakuani, was ambushed and they haven't scored more than 1 goal in any of the past 5 games, 3 of which were played against bad defenses (KC, POR, DC). Their coach hinted that he's benching their top forward, Montero, in favor of Fucito based off of the midweek performance vs Dallas where Fucito was the most dangerous player on the field. If you can't score multiple goals against KC, Por, DC they you have no chance against RSL who far and away lead MLS in goals allowed, with just 2 in 8 matches. RSL with 6 straight unders, Seattle with 4 straight. Sounders very good defensive team and have allowed more than 1 goal just once in past 9 matches. Without Alvarez, Morales, Paulo Jr, and Saborio they're missing 4 goals (out of 8 scored), 4 assists (out of 11 given), 13 SOG (out of 29), and almost half the team's shots taken as Saborio/Morales/Alvarez were top 3 in that category. RSL with big advantage of altitude against a team that played in midweek but I don't trust their offense enough to lay -.75. If the -.5 line creeps above 1.80 I might add a home win

RSL/SEA under 2.5 2.5u -150

Seattle wins 2-1. Tough loss with all the goals in the 2nd half.

 

[rolltide]

RSL 1-2 -3.75 (tough loss indeed with match 0-1 and 6 minutes to play)
draw system = +2.89 with the ChiX/HouX winning 5.39u but the others -2.5 ... was definitely onto something as 5 matches drew, but picked wrong ones

 

[rolltide]

Portland vs DC United
- long trip for DC going coast-to-coast without some really important players. Their DP and top player, Branko Boskovic, remains out as well as defenders McTavich and Jed Zayner, backup keeper Steve Cronin, and leading scorer Charlie Davies. Davies' striking partner, Josh Wolff, is expected to be available on bench but not start because of an injury. That really leaves a pathetic attack of rookie Brettschneider and Joseph Ngwenya though Pontius/Mccarthy/Najar/Quaranta is a pretty good midfield behind them. Without Wolff and Davies they're missing 8 goals on a team that has scored just 13. DC did look pretty decent last week in loss vs Ajax and then Ajax beat Portland in midweek but the Timbers used mainly reserves. Portland perfect 5-0-0 at home this year with a combo of strange turf, awesome crowd, and very talented MF and attack. DC should be well prepared as they haven't played a league match in 2 weeks but they've been poor on the road losing to NE 2-1, Col 4-1, Hou 4-1 and beating only Toronto. Going back to last year they've pulled just 15 road points out of 57 with 6 of those coming in Toronto. Portland will press this DC defense all match and lead the MLS in set piece goals which is not a good thing for DC who are horrible on set pieces...hell, they even allowed a goal from a midfield throw in a few weeks back! Since posting the shutout in Toronto last month DC United have allowed 12 goals in 6 games and 4 in their only road match. This is their only road game in May and they'll stay out west for the week with the LA game coming up next week. With both Columbus and New England losing out west last week and then RBNY drawing at Vancouver that makes 26 straight matches that an Eastern team has failed to win when traveling 3 time zones, 0-11-15 14/39. High scoring home win as these might just be the two worst backlines in MLS though I think, in time, DC's back 4 will come around after the Gold Cup. Pontius and Najar will be a real test for the wide defenders on Portland and I'd actually be a bit surprised if DC didn't score. Portland showed a lot last week when they gutted out a 1-0 win in a match they were clearly not up for, so I expect a much better performance. I'll predict 3-1

Portland 5u +100
Por/DC over 2.5 2u +110

 

[rolltide]

It was reported that two more guys didn't make the trip for DC United. Starting DF Marc Burch and MF Santino Quaranta stayed at home with injuries not previously reported. Only Dejan Jakovic has played more minutes in defense than Burch while both Burch and Quaranta are two of only 5 players who've scored for DC this year. That means they'll start with just one player who has netted a goal this season, Chris Pontius. Both Charlie Davies and Josh Wolff traveled but Davies will almost certainly be rested while Wolff is expected to come in as a sub.

 

[kidman232]

line has moved your way

 

[rolltide]

actually line is moving against me just a bit. pinn now +104, sbobet +105 ... total dropped a few cents as well to +104/+105

anyway looking for a big 1H out of Portland like they had vs Dallas and Chicago. we'll see shortly

 

[kidman232]

wow, bookmakers line must be horrible, portland is -133 on the ml

 

[ANOTHERDAY]

0-1

14 mins in

2 more to go )))))

 

[kidman232]

lets go rally time

 

[ANOTHERDAY]

Going to be tough getting 2 more goals here (((

Hopefully we will

 

[ANOTHERDAY]

At the half, there was a line of +800 that there will not be another goal. Should have put 20 bucks for the hell of it. Portland will be shut out