MLS week 10

[rolltide]

21-13-2 +27.36 (staked 121.53, +22.5%)


Portland vs Columbus
- simply too much value to not stake a bit on the Timbers although this is A VERY BAD SPOT for them and I hate betting on teams in bad situations. First the good stuff...Portland 5-0-0 at home this year with an M.O. of jumping out to big 1H lead then holding on for final 15 minutes. Well, if their performance in Seattle proves anything its that they actually can finish games, coming back from a deficit to take a point and pressing Seattle for the final 10 minutes. They've assembled an excellent attack and speedy midfield though I'm not at all sold on their defense. At home, they have the loudest, most raucous crowd in MLS and clearly give 100%.
Cbus, after getting pasted 3-0 at San Jose, have to return for another 3 time zone trip. Repeating from last week's preview...Teams, like Columbus, making a 3 time zone trip west haven't won in 23 matches in this league, 0-10-13 12/35, and the Crew are 0-3-8 7/23 when playing an away match at least 2 time zones west with their last such win coming in August in 2009.
Now the bad...situation. Cbus are a well coached, defensively sound team that pride themselves on shutouts and never give up 3 goals in the way they did which were major defensive blunders. They will be super-charged up on Saturday to make amends for that performance. On the other side, this is a Portland team that just played their biggest rival for the first time in MLS, and a letdown is a big possibility. It is for that reason, and that reason only, that my stake is just 2.5u instead of 5u.

Portland 2.5u +145

 

[crazyivan]

What sportsbook you recommend for MLS betting? GL I'll tail you here.

 

[rolltide]

Sunday night

Colorado vs Toronto
- gotta think Colorado, the defending MLS champs, handle a very tired and not very good Toronto team playing without their best player. Toronto last night took a 1-1 draw in first leg of the Canadian finals but were picked apart by the worst team in MLS, Vancouver, allowing 21 shots, 23 crosses, and 9 corner kicks. TFC are the busiest team in MLS with the thinnest roster of talent and playing another away game in Denver altitude should be a simple home win. This will be TFC's 9th match in 30 days and already 6th game in May with the 2nd leg of the Canadian Championships next Wednesday which they will absolutely prioritize. TFC very bad away...dating back to mid-2009 they're 3-6-18 on the road including 1-3-11 against current Western teams with 4 of those 6 points against SJ. Throw SJ out and you're looking at 0-2-11. TFC's best player, Julian De Guzman, will miss out in MF after his red card last week which means only Maicon Santos and young Plato are the only danger players on the roster, if they even play. TFC does have perhaps the league's top keeper, Frei, and he'll see plenty of action in this one. Colorado still missing important Cummings but get Casey back up front and they've been offensively challenged this year and really haven't played well since beating DC United in early April. TFC saved striker Alan Gordon the exhausting trip to Vancouver but the rest of the club played and are looking at a 3rd trip in just 11 days after playing at Dallas last midweek, at Vancouver last night, then at Colorado on Sunday. Despite Colorado's form I'd be shocked if they don't come away with 3 points in this one

Colorado 4.5u -133

ivan, your best bets are pinnacle, sbobet, 12bet for asianodds but they don't release very early like betcris/bookmaker, bwin, bet-at-home do. I got the +145 at betcris two days ago (is now +115) and odds still not even up at pinnacle, sbobet, etc.

 

[SunDodger]

Good points in last weeks thread, rolltide. I forgot about N'Kufo. Seattle gets an ugly 1-0 win tonight, and I'll take it and be happy. The Sounders are struggling on offense and needed a win, considering so many teams have games in hand on them.

Why does Real Salt Lake have so many games in hand? Don't get it.


Nice win on Portland. They are good at home. I like the 3 time zone road trip angle you posted. The New England at San Jose game also fit that angle, correct?

 

[rolltide]

FC Dallas vs Real Salt Lake
- two of the best defensive units in MLS and both teams without their DP playmaking midfielers. Dallas with 3 straight clean sheets and have not been scored on in over 300 minutes while RSL have posted 2 straight shutouts and haven't been scored on in nearly 250 minutes. RSL simply struggling something awful to create chances with Morales out as they've scored just once in the 155 minutes he's been out, and that was against CUSA playing wtih 9 men. Dallas held Philly to just 1 SOG last week while RSL produced just 2 SOG at home against Houston, both by Saborio. Away from home RSL really clamp down on teams and they've played 11 out of their past 14 away matches under 2.5 goals. Dallas hardly creating any chances themselves and it seems like one of those matches that will be played in the midfield with little possession in the offensive third. Risking about 4u on the under...

Dallas/RSL under 2.5 2.75u -140

 

[rolltide]

Why does Real Salt Lake have so many games in hand? Don't get it.

MLS postponed both of their weekend matches during the Concacaf Champions League final so that they were rested for the Monterrey games. Will be made up later this year

 

[Coaster]

Speaking of postponed........your pick is great....if they resume!

 

[Coolie]

It's suspended in the 88 min 0-0 score, sucks if we don't get this win

 

[Coaster]

Now I can say it...........GREAT pick. 0-0 Final!
Thanxs

 

[rolltide]

Portland 1-0 +3.63
Colorado 0-0 -5.99
FC Dallas 0-0 +2.75

23-14-2 +27.75 (staked 133.87, +20.7%)