MLS playoffs week 1

[rolltide]

55-52-7 +7.80 (staked 376.79, +2.1%)

so we've got the first ever MLS wildcard games tonight and tomorrow in a 1 leg series to get to this weekend's playoff series.

Dallas vs RBNY
- If you remember from my RBNY under bet against RSL this matchup in the regular season was a big chance for the Red Bulls who went very defensive and picked up a 1-0 away win. Why they didn't stay with that formula I have no idea but I believe Backe knows that is the way to win in playoff games. Dallas' offense is non-existent right now so I can't think they will open it up at home. The Red Bulls won that match despite having just 1 corner and 2 shots on goal and since then Dallas has been an offensive disaster. I don't expect anything pretty tonight and likely a goal or two, at most. Dallas 7 straight MLS home unders, RBNY 3 straight MLS road unders

Dallas u2.5 4u -125

 

[rolltide]

56-52-7 +11.80 (staked 381.79, +3.1%)

MLS playoffs recent history:

MLS wildcard games were won by RBNY and Colorado with playoffs startign tonight and likely the wrong teams will be playing for the title as usual. This is due to the ridiculous "benefit" of having the team with the better record begin the home & home series on the road. IMO it is forced parity as clearly the team that has played better for 8 months should begin at home and force the lesser team to play catch-up. But with this format which allows lower seeded team to play game 1 at home the higher seeded team has won just 6 of 16 playoff series' in the past 4 years.

case in point...LA's reward for dominating the league for 8 months? A cross country trip to the only team in MLS that has an equal payroll, NY Red Bulls. insane!

If the two legs are tied through 180 minutes there will be a 30-minute extra time followed by penalty kicks. Both the conference championship game and MLS championship game are single matches with extra time and penalties, if necessary.
Since this format started in 2007 home teams rarely lose in the conference semifinals losing just twice in 24 matches, 16-11-5.

4-1-3 2010
4-3-1 2009
3-4-1 2008
5-3-0 2007

only 12 of these 32 matches have seen 3+ goals and 15 of these 32 have either ended with 0 or 1 goal scored so unders are traditionally a solid play. Even more impressive is the fact that the under is 13-3 in first leg of the conference semifinals with 1 of these overs being CUSA/LA who share the same home field. Throw that one out and you've got just two overs mark for first legs. Once the better team plays at home in 2nd leg the total is a 50/50 proposition with half ending over 2.5 goals. First leg home teams have only lost twice to their higher seeded opponents, 8-6-2 (both losses last year), in these past 4 seasons. The higher seeded teams are just 8-5-3 at home in the 2nd second leg as they're usually chasing a bad first leg result.

 

[sonyman]

Great write ups on the MLS.

Roll Tide!!

 

[rolltide]

Real Salt Lake vs Seattle
- not a great year for RSL but they still finished 3rd in the west and can use their preferred starting 11 for just the 3rd time all year with both Javi Morales and Kyle Beckerman back in midfield. I rate Morales the best player in MLS when healthy and Borchers/Olave the best central defense pairing so RSL can be a real sleeper to win the MLS cup this year although they'll have to take out Seattle and likely LA, the two highest point earners in the league. RSL always tough at home and were a solid 6-1-1 here against western conference foes losing only to Seattle. In that match Olave got sent off in the 58th at 0-0 and RSL lost 2-1. Actually in 4 of the 7 home games they didn't take the max points RSL saw a man sent off so keeping 11 on the field is a must tonight. Seattle have been tremendous on the road losing just 3 times all year and scoring in 7 straight. They'll be without their best player, Mauro Rosales, and winning playoff games without your top player isn't easy. Really tough to take a team that hasn't won in 6 games especially against a higher seeded team in good form but RSL are a veteran team that have more talent than the Sounders and with Kyle/Javi back in midfield they should be a MLS cup contender. Keller has had to make the 3rd most saves in the league so RSL will get some chances.

Real Salt Lake 2.25u +117

 

[barman]

U visited my NHL thread, so I'm sticking nose in here....I got RLS at +131 (ml) and parlayed it with a personal NFL choice of my own (BUF Under 45)....15 takes back FittyOne......bol to us

 

[rolltide]

GL BM

it's on fox soccer channel at the top of the hour...

 

[Huego]

gl rolltide

 

[barman]

GL BM

it's on fox soccer channel at the top of the hour...

hahahaha...as if

That's why I have Livescore.com bookmarked.....one stop wager grading

thanks for helping to make that BUF Under 45 more interesting since it's now effectively $15 gets $51

 

[rolltide]

RSL 3-0 +2.63

57-52-7 +14.43 (staked 384.04, +3.7%)


RBNY vs LA Galaxy
- no pick for me here but obviously the league's top matchup with the only two teams that have payrolls in excess of 10M. This reminds me of RBNY home against RSL after playing a great and very defensive game in Dallas. I predicted they were smart enough to see that defense is the key for them and they just don't have a talented enough MF to play offensive. I was wrong...RSL cruised. If 3 goals are scored in the match then LA won. I don't see a way for RBNY to win 2-1 or 3-1 here. Most likely they will resort to offensive tactics and get beat but just in case they do play defensive I'll abstain from a bet though obviously leaning LA pk +115

Houston at Philadelphia
- Philly 7-1 under in last 8 matches and is a team like RBNY that should know now that they're not talented enough in MF to play offensive. They started the season with 7/8 home unders then lost keeper to injury and played 4/5 overs before getting him back and finishing year with 11/17 played under. Houston ultra-offensive at home but ultra defensive away...the number don't lie with 3.06 gpg at home, just 2.00 on road. Philly matches just 2.35 all year which is 2nd lowest in league. Houston on a 5-2 under streak on road and also have played 11/17 road unders. Both meetings this year ended under 2.5

Houston/Philly u2.5 3u -140

Sporting KC at Colorado
- tough one here as both have good offensive potential and shaky defenses but some nice under trends in addition to the normal unders we see in first legs. KC on a 8-2 road under streak and 5-1 overall under streak. They've not conceded more than 1 road goal since May, spanning 10 league matches, while only scoring more than 1 road goal twice. Colorado won in midweek to get here and could be very tired from playing 10 matches in 6 weeks so I really don't think they win the series. I expect a very defensive KC trying to pull a 0-0 or 1-1 draw then open up the offense at home. Colorado on current 4-1 under streak overall with 4 straight home unders. Similar to Philly they were an under machine at home but had a month of big overs that have skewed stats though they still finished with 11 league unders on the year. Colorado holding a current 342' home streak where they've not been scored on and 6 of their last 8 games hosting eastern teams have failed to reach 3 goals.

Colorado/KC under 2.5 2u -150

 

[rolltide]

Phi 1-2 -4.20
Col 0-2 +2.00

58-53-7 +12.23 (staked 391.24, +3.1%)

LA, Houston, Sporting KC, and RSL take leads into 2nd legs this week...