MLS Oct 28-31

[rolltide]

YTD 33-28 +32.60 (+13.3%) staked 245.10
Regular 33-24 +34.60
Parlay 0-4 -2.00

MLS playoffs begin on Thursday and likely the wrong teams will be playing for the title as usual. This is due to the ridiculous "benefit" of having the team with the better record begin the home & home series on the road. IMO it is forced parity as clearly the team that has played better for 8 months should begin at home and force the lesser team to play catch-up. But with this format which allows lower seeded team to play game 1 at home the higher seeded team has won just 5 of 12 playoff series' in the past 3 years.

If the two legs are tied through 180 minutes there will be a 30-minute extra time followed by penalty kicks. Both the conference championship game and MLS championship game are single matches with extra time and penalties, if necessary.
Since this format started in 2007 home teams rarely lose in the conference semifinals losing just twice in 24 matches, 12-10-2.

4-3-1 2009
3-4-1 2008
5-3-0 2007

only 8 of these 24 matches have seen 3+ goals and 12 of these 24 have either ended with 0 or 1 goal scored so unders are traditionally a solid play. Even more impressive is the fact that the under is 10-2 in first leg of the conference semifinals with 1 of these overs being CUSA/LA who share the same home field. Throw that one out and you've got a 10-1 under mark for first legs. Once the better team plays at home in 2nd leg the total is a 50/50 proposition with 6 of those 12 ending over goals. First leg home teams have never lost to their higher seeded opponents, 6-6-0, in these past 3 seasons. The higher seeded teams are just 6-4-2 at home in the 2nd second leg as they're usually chasing a bad first leg result.

waiting for odds but we have 1 match on Thu, 2 on Sat, 1 on Sun

 

[mclosin]

was gonna ask you about this roll. i actually like the playoffs idea at the end of the year, and completely HATE the format. would rather see them actually honor the conferences and allow the top 4 from each conference duke it out. however i would add one week and make the conference championship a two leg event. also, i would take a page from the mexican league and make it so the lower seed is essentially a half goal behind the top for instance, if la seattle are 2-2 after 2 legs, la would advance. i think this would make for more interesting games.

id keep the mls final at a neutral site as it currently is.

 

[mclosin]

in its current state, its the dumbest playoff system i have ever seen. whats the point of even having a conference? san jose and colorado are playing for the eastern conference championship.

 

[rolltide]

yes, too much trying to satisfy the american way of thinking where you need east vs west but then don't even honor the seeding of that conference specifically. I don't mind allowing top 2 for each conference in automatically then the "next best 4" but seed them 1-8 and allow the #1 team to play the #8 team. Think about it...they're allowing the Red Bulls and Columbus much easier path to the MLS title game by sending over the 5th/6th western clubs while LA & RSL have to play two teams that are outstanding. incredibly stupid.

then, to allow the lesser team to play first match at home and build a lead to make the higher seed chase is just ridiculous.

should be:

1- LA
2- RSL
3- RBNY
4- Cbus
5- Dallas
6- Seattle
7- Colorado
8- San Jose

then bracketed to keep a final of 1-2 a possibility (since no way that LA and RSL will play for title)

LA vs San Jose winner plays RBNY/Seattle winner with victorious team going to title game

RSL vs Colorado winner plays Cbus/Dallas winner with victorious team going to title game

by doing this you not only allow 1 to possibly play 2 for title but you make the worst team (San Jose) really earn getting to a title game having to get through the #1 team in the league, possibly the #1 team in the east, then defeat the top team from the other bracket. As it is SJ can get to title game by beating 3rd best team in league (NY) and 7th best team in league (Col). Just as RBNY did 2 years ago, BTW

the way they do this they have guaranteed that a team no better than 3rd in the regular season will be playing for a title. The same system has allowed the Red Bulls (who won the west, lol) and RSL to play in title games the last two years where neither was very good for the entire regular season. MLS does very little right but their playoff format is the worst of their errors

 

[mclosin]

im guessing they are doing the same thing next year except with a 34 game season?

 

[rolltide]

im guessing they are doing the same thing next year except with a 34 game season?

actually they are discussing revamping it to give top regular season teams more advantage. The move to 34 games is necessitatated by the expansion but one idea that has come out is:

The top 4 of each conference make the playoffs and you play each of the other 3 teams once. The #1 in the east, for example, plays 3 home games against #2-#3-#4 in the East while #2 plays one away game (at #1) and home games against #3 and #4. The 4th place finisher would be on the road for all 3 games against #1-2-3. The team with the most points in that mini-tourney advances to the MLS final against the team that won the other mini-tourney.

The other format under discussion is much simpler. Again, you simply take teams 1-4 in each conference and that is your 8 team playoff. Teams seeded 1 & 2 will play each other in a home & home with winner advancing to conference final automatically. The loser plays winner of 3 vs 4 for the other conference final slot while the loser of the 3/4 game is eliminated. So, if you worked all season to be #1 or 2 you aren't dead just because you lost in first series you can still advance by beating the 3-4 winner. very interesting IMO!

of course the problem with any of these setups is that you still aren't guaranteed to get the top 2 teams especially in a year like 2010 where the top 2 are both in the same conference. IMO, seeding them 1-8 and playing home & home series with the higher seed given first home game is simple enough. Either that or, like in Mexico, make the lower seeded team have to actually defeat the higher seeded team in those two games and get rid of extra time all together. I don't think any MLS fan has a real East/West bias, they just want to see the two best teams playing in a final which is already guaranteed NOT to happen...and the playoffs haven't even started yet!

 

[mclosin]

quite interesting scenarios for 2011, will be paying attention to how this will pan out. i like that 3 game mini tournament idea, kinda out there but very different, cept you could get some meaningless games for game 3.

just like nfl, nba, hockey, mlb, if the best teams are in the same league, they will have to go at it before the finals. whats so incredibly stupid is letting the teams cross over in the conferences. could you imagine if mlb said "reds your out, we are gonna let boston play for the nl pennant" id be perfectly fine with a 16 or 18 team league next year with no conference. they have taken quite a bit of heat for this playoff system (glad to see them getting a little bit of headline albeit bad) so im hoping that its changed drastically for next season.

also looks like the season is gonna be the same length and they are gonna squeeze 4 more games into the same amount of time? i guess they wont be having the 2 week break for world cup, so that frees up some time.

 

[rolltide]

Thursday night

Columbus at Colorado
- as this is first of a home and home where away goals does not count the higher seed always plays very conservatively and I expect that to be the case on Thursday, especially in the Denver altitude. Columbus have done well in Denver, 2-1-1 in last 4 seasons, with all 4 ending in small scores (1-1-2-0). Go back further and the under is 7-1 when Columbus plays away in Colorado. The Rapids scored a ton of goals at home against bad teams (3+ against Houston/Chivas/NE/Phi) but unders were the play when they faced a good team. Against playoff squads the under is 6-1 this year including a 1-0 home win over Columbus. Columbus allowed the least amount of 2H goals this season (.40/game) and Colorado were 3rd in that category (.43/game) so if there's a 0 or 1 on the board at half time we have a great chance to win this bet as both defenses are strong in 2H. As mentioned above, the first leg of the conference semifinals have seen 10 of 12 matches ending under 2.5 goals since this format was enacted.

Cbus/Col under 2.5 3.5u -145

 

[mclosin]

agree with the pick should be close to the vest in all the first legs.

 

[JohnMolson]

thanks for the easy winner

 

[rolltide]

Saturday

FC Dallas vs Real Salt Lake
- no doubt the best first round matchup pitting two of the 3 best teams in the league, IMO, and the two teams with the least amount of regular season losses (4). RSL has lost just one MLS match since April, 2-0 at Dallas while Dallas had their 19 match unbeaten streak ended two weeks ago in RSL, again 2-0. Dallas have never dropped a home point to RSL, a perfect 8-0-0 18/5 and they've lost just once at home since June 2009. Much like the Columbus match I expect a dull, defensive RSL who are an excellent team defending on the road. Since April 17 only twice have they allowed more than 1 road goal (Dallas 2-0 and Colorado 2-2) where they've posted 9 unders out of 12 matches and have allowed just 7 road goals in 10 MLS games. RSL's defense is so strong that two of the three finalists for MLS Defensive Player of the Year are in their back 4! Dallas have had some recent defensive struggles at home but I don't expect them to play too out of control knowing RSL's lethal counters with Findley and Saborio. They've posted clean sheets in 6 out of their last 10 home games as only RSL and RBNY have better home defense. Likewise only LA have a better road defense than RSL so you have two teams matching their strengths which should keep this game under. RSL have only allowed .27 gpg in the first half, Dallas 2nd best with .40 gpg so expect a 0-0 HT score. These are the #1 and #2 2nd half scoring teams, however, so I'll call for a 1-1 draw and RSL to finally take a point out of Frisco, TX.

Dallas/RSL under 2.5 3.25u -125

San Jose vs RBNY
- top team in East vs a team that really aren't playoff quality. Red Bulls are a vastly more talented team and performed well on the road vs the West posting a 2-3-3 mark but did lose 4-0 at San Jose. Earthquakes unimpressive as hell but Wondolowski shockingly won the golden boot so they do have one premier player. Against the east at home they were an ok 4-2-2 but lost to awful Toronto and Chicago while drawing bottom club DC. They were just 3-2-2 at home vs playoff teams and haven't beaten a playoff team since August. Really any result is possible here. I would like to think the experience of Angel/Marquez/Henry will far overshadow one San Jose striker who had a miracle season but this is the MLS playoffs and really anything can happen, though Henry out for this leg. A case can be made for another under bet as San Jose is the worst home scoring team in the playoffs (1.13 gpg) and only allowed .93 home goals per game but the Red Bulls are the #1 road scoring team in the playoffs (1.33/game) and allow 1.33/game as well so statistically not a great bet. What really puts me off for the under is that these are, by far, the two worst defensive playoff clubs in terms of shots allowed. RBNY were 4th worst in MLS allowing 12.6 shots/game while San Jose nearly last at 13.6 shots/game. If you have a bit of beer money I'd throw it on RBNY HT/FT as when they score first they are unbeatable, 14-1-0, and if leading at the half they're a perfect 11-0-0. San Jose, conversely, is 0-0-8 if trailing at HT and 1-1-10 when allowing first goal. Not to mention the Red Bulls are superior in every way to San Jose, but nothing official from me right now.

 

[rolltide]

Dallas 2-1

YTD 34-29 +32.04 (+12.6%) staked 254.23
Regular 34-25 +34.04
Parlay 0-4 -2.00