MLS Oct 23-24

[rolltide]

YTD 31-27 +29.80 (+12.5%) staked 237.90
Regular 31-23 +31.80
Parlay 0-4 -2.00


no picks yet but should have some for this final weekend in MLS. All the playoff teams are known but the seedings are not. In case you don't know, teams that finish 5th and 6th in the west will switch over and be the 3rd and 4th seeded teams in the East, with 4th seed facing RBNY, 3rd seed facing Columbus

East:
1st RBNY - clinched top spot
2nd Cbus - clinched 2nd spot
3rd/4th - 2 of the following Sea/SJ/Col

- what makes this so interesting is that it is really advantageous for Sea/SJ/Col to lose this weekend and NOT finish 4th in the west as they'd have to go through LA, RSL, and Dallas who will likely finish as the 3 highest point getters in MLS.

West:
1st LA or RSL - LA lead by 1 point
2nd LA or RSL
3rd DAL or SEA
4th SJ, DAL or SEA or Col

if Dallas win they are 3rd seed. If they draw or lose and Seattle draw or win they are 4th seed. Either way they must get through LA/RSL to play in finals

only way SJ doesn't get moved to the east is if they win and seattle loses or if they win by 2+ goals and seattle ties

colorado only theoretically can finish west 4th seed and involved them winning, and both SJ/SEA losing or them winning and SJ drawing while Seattle loses. likely they're heading east

all other teams simply playing for pride in this final week of the regular season.

Most likely playoff seeding will be:
LA vs Sea
RSL vs Dal
RBNY vs Col
Cbus vs SJ

I'll be back...

 

[rolltide]

Other honors up for grabs:

Golden Boot:
SJ's Wondolowski and LA's Buddle tied with 17 goals though Buddle in 3 less games played. (Wondo's 9 game winning goals cannot be matched)

Top Assist Man:
LA's Donovan (15) vs DAL's Ferreira (13)

MVP:
likely either Wondolowski, Ferreira, Donovan, Phi's LeToux, or Sea's Montero to have final chance to prove worth

Goals against Avg:
Dal's Hartman and RSL's Rimando tied with .62

Minutes played:
Tim Ream finished at perfect 2700 and 3 other players (Moor, Nielsen, Hesmer) can tie him at 2700. Ferreira can get to 2699 with 90 minutes for Dallas

 

[rolltide]

DC United vs Toronto
- two embarrassingly poor teams in final match. DC will not only look to end the season with a home win but their legendary forward, Jaime Moreno, will be playing last game needing 1 goal to retire as MLS' all time leading scorer. Toronto will sit most regulars and run out their TFC Academy stars in first ever MLS match so very winnable game for DC, who've never lost at home to TFC. DC fans haven't seen them win at home in 2 months while TFC are 1-3-8 on the road since May. TFC likely won't put up much of a fight as they are last in MLS in shots and SOG and really only have DeRosario who plays with any interest and passion. Can't invest much $ in either team but will stake a small one on home victory. Prefer 1x2 over asian 1/4 ball in this one

DC United 2u +125

more games will be posted this afternoon but nothing on the 4pm Houston match

 

[rolltide]

Chivas USA vs Chicago
- more of a gut feel that we'll see goals in this one. Chicago offense has dissapointed all year but they've been good on the road, averaging a league best 1.36 road goals scored while allowing 1.71. CUSA giving up more than a goal per game at home and scoring 1.30 so statistically not a terrible bet. Final games for many players but spotlights on Jonathan Bornsteain (heading to Tigres) and Brian McBride (retiring). CUSA 4 straight overs and 6 in last 8 overall but Chicago coming in with 3 straight unders and 8 of their last 10. This fixture produced a 3-2 Chicago away win last year and the Fire have been involved in goals with heavy matches against the west this year, with 6 of their 7 trips to western teams ending in 3+ goals. Something tells me we're in for goals...

CUSA/CHI over 2.5 3u +110

also a lean on SJ as KC without most of their lineup but SJ playing 3rd match in a week and a win actually hurts their chances for a MLS title.
I'm expecting at least one more bet tomorrow but waiting for results in tonight's matches

 

[Kiln]

CUSA/CHI over 2.5 3u +110

Thanks for another winner!

 

[rolltide]

thx Kiln. disaapointed in DC blowing 1-0 and 2-1 leads but when you bet shit you get shit

Columbus vs Philadelphia
- I think the Crew's only prayer to do well in the playoffs is to win this game and get a bit of confidence as they're in a major funk. Their reserves destroyed Joe Public in midweek but now time for the regulars to do the same over the road pathetic Union. The Crew already know they are playing at Colorado on Thursday so public betting Philly heavily assuming the Crew will run out the reserves again but everything I've heard and read says the opposite. Philly's 7 road points have come against the Revs, CUSA, and Houston who were all knocked out of the playoffs weeks ago. Against playoff teams the Union have posted a 0-0-7 4/18 road mark and Cbus have dropped just 3 points at home to non-playoff teams in 2010, 6-0-1 13/4. Small bet against the public

Columbus 1.5u -147

 

[JohnMolson]

nice call on the Crew.Anything tonight ??I might be on the over

 

[rolltide]

nothing tonight. the RSL comeback yesterday killed what was going to be a bet on the under. Now, LA need at least a draw to win the Shield while Dallas will likely rest regulars. Buddle needs 1 goal to win golden boot which is a major career goal for him so I'm thinking 1-1 type of game. If wondolowski failed to score and RSL failed to draw yesterday the under would have been big play for me. Any result possible now

DC 2-3
Chi 4-1
Cbus 3-1

YTD 33-28 +32.60 (+13.3%) staked 245.10
Regular 33-24 +31.80
Parlay 0-4 -2.00