MLS Oct 15-16

rolltide · Oct 13, 2010

YTD 29-25 +24.80 (+11.0%) staked 226.38
Regular 29-21 +26.80
Parlay 0-4 -2.00

Kansas City at New England
- if you follow my picks I am a very situational punter and I hardly ever (never?) bet on a team that is playing 3rd match in a week against a rested opponent, especially in a b2b situation. I will put that aside for one bet but strictly because I see enormous value. Still, knowing that this is a bad situation for KC keeps the bet to a minimum. Anyway, the Wizards are clearly one of the better teams in MLS right now and are certainly one of 8 best and should be a playoff team, but their slow start and incredible scoring record (versus chances produced) have them in a do-or-die position. They were in one last night against Chicago away and prevailed with 2-0 win. KC is outplaying every opponent but just not finishing chances. They lost to both RBNY and Seattle despite more than doubling their opponent in shots so I know I'm betting on a team that will likely outplay the Revs, even on the road in 3rd match of the week. Last night (again!) they more than doubled Chicago in shots (15-7), SOG (6-2), and corners (9-2) but converted for the 2-0 win. A similar performance on Saturday can be expected so the bet is really up to whether or not they convert. Nice win by the Revs at awful Houston last week and I'm sure they will be motivated for final home game of season but they should not be favored in this match. KC lead the league in both total shots attempted (355) and total shots against (262) which underlines just how solid this team has been. The problem is they've scored just 32 and conceded 33 so clearly not playing to their potential...but they still have a shot at the playoffs. The scenario is that they trail Colorado by 6 points with 2 games to play for each team. Colorado play the two best teams in the league, LA and RSL, and if they lose both and KC win both the Wizards will have 1 more win than Colorado and will make the playoffs in the 8th slot. LA is a 1.50 favorite against Colorado and RSL will not lie down in final match as it is their biggest rival so KC must win to keep the hopes alive. Yes, they really disappointed against Seattle but I will come right back with them at this big away win price. Hopefully I won't regret going against my normal situational system but I've got to try this bet as odds shouldn't be higher than 2.75

KC Wizards 3u +260

rolltide · Oct 13, 2010

rolltide said:
Colorado play the two best teams in the league, LA and RSL, and if they lose both and KC win both the Wizards will have 1 more win than Colorado and will make the playoffs in the 8th slot.

this sentence should read "Colorado play the two best teams in the league, LA and RSL,and if they lose both and KC win both the Wizards will be equal on points with Colorado and will make the playoffs in the 8th slot because the season series was 4-1 in favor of KC."

(i screwed up thinking it was total wins as first tiebreaker when it is, in fact, points in season series...kc owns both tiebreaks over colorado)

soysauce023 · Oct 13, 2010

bol to you on this play, def agree that the Wizards have been the better team in most of their games..

soy

rolltide · Oct 13, 2010

playoff scenarios for rest of matches:
Chivas USA at Seattle (FRI)
- CUSA are out and Seattle are in already so only positioning to be decided. The best Seattle can do is 5th place, the worst is 8th place but likely are set to finish 6th or 7th and face either the East's #1 team or RSL. Seattle playing mostly reserves in friendly last night so quick turnaround won't be an issue. They're on fire right now and hard to see CUSA stopping them
Columbus at Toronto
- Toronto out, Columbus in playoffs and only thing left to decide is whether they win east and get 3rd seed or end in 4th seed. They do not want to face Dallas so they either need to finish 3rd or hope Dallas win at RSL (which no team has done in a long time), so they really need this win.
DC United at Chicago
- both teams out of playoffs and out of form
RBNY at Philadelphia
- RBNY are in the playoffs, Philly are out. Same as with Cbus the Red Bulls must avoid Dallas at all costs if they want to extend playoffs for more than 2 games. Philly don't lose many at home so really tough game
Dallas at RSL
- RSL clinches no worse than 2nd seed with a win at home, which is the biggest fortress now in MLS history. Both teams among the real title contenders and both want that top 2 position. Big match for seeding
San Jose vs Houston
- San Jose a very improbable playoff team, clearly not one of the better teams in the league but they have already secured their spot. Houston can't wait for season to end
LA Galaxy vs Colorado
- return of Beckham has ignited a fire under LA and a win here clinches the Supporter's Shield and given a spot in Concacaf CL for next season. 5 of past 12 Shield holders also won the playoffs though Cbus failed in 2009. Colorado need 1 point to clinch the 8th, and final, playoff spot but can finish as high as 6th. If KC either loses or draws in New England then Colorado will have clinched their spot before this match is played
more bets to come...

rolltide · Oct 15, 2010

Chicago vs DC United
- Chicago are a decent squad but their midseason moves to acquire Freddie and Nery was a disaster as they combined to score 1 goal all season! McBride will play his farewell match in front of his home crowd but aside from this I don't see much motivation from the Fire, who've only scored in 2 of their last 8 games and just once in 4 home games. DC United are, of course, very poor but they have won 2 of their last 3 road matches and haven't been defeated my more than 1 goal in their last 5 road games. Chicago played a midweek match so 3rd game in a week and it doesn't make much sense how a team with 2 wins in 11 can be this strongly favored, especially considering that the Fire have failed to win in 10 of their last 13 games on this field dating back to June. Any result is possible so I'll give the away win a shot. May add some asian HC if I find a well priced +1

DC United .5u +475

rolltide · Oct 15, 2010

LA Galaxy vs Colorado
- The last 4 trips for Colorado to the Home Depot Center have ended with 5-5-5-4 goals scored and, while they're winless in 9 road games, their scoring record away is very strong. Colorado have netted in 8 of those 9 games and hit for 2 goals on 3 different occasions but they've allowed a goal in every one of them, 17 in all. LA have been a better road team than home team but all games at home either end in 0-2 loss or in many goals being scored. If you count the superclasico vs CUSA their last 9 Home Depot games have produced 32 goals and 7 overs. If KC fail to win in Boston then this game has no meaning for the Rapids otherwise they must take a point to clinch the playoffs. Likewise, LA need a win to clinch the Supporter's Shield though a draw in RSL/Dallas means a draw in this game will do. Only RSL have a better home goal scoring record than the Galaxy and the Rapids averaging more than 1 gpg on the road. These are also 2 of the 3 top first half goal scoring teams so we should see some in the net before HT. If KC win their game then neither of these teams can afford a loss so hopefully they'll play a typical Galaxy/Rapids match which will end with 4-5 goals

LA/Col over 2.5 3.5u -115

rolltide · Oct 16, 2010

Philadelphia vs RBNY
- Philly with a disappointing 1-0 loss last home game against the Galaxy in a match they controlled and should have never done worse than 1 point but they didn't defend a corner and lost. This will be their final home match of the year in Chester, PA and I expect a raucous crowd against their natural rivals, the Red Bulls. Big news for this match is the Red Bulls' injuries and desire of the coach to rest starters and put out a full XI next week vs New England. Starting LFB, Roy Miller, is suspended and starting RFB, Chris Albright is hurt as is his backup, Carey talley. Another defender, Mike Petke, is also hurt so they'll give Jeremy Hall his first start at fullback and against Philly's LeToux, reserve defenders will struggle. Likely holding MF and/or centerback Rafa Marquez will start from the bench after playing 90' this week for Mexico and same with quick MF Dane Richards who was with Jamaica. RBNY will rest several MF and attackers as well plus Mehdi Ballouchy is hurt so expect teenager Agudelo and backup, Ibrahim, to fill in for Henry and Tchiani. Basically RBNY will trot out the team that played in the US Open Cup who lost in extra time to USL2 side, Harrisburg City. I really don't trust the Union much as they've left a lot of points on the field but in the final home game against a team full of reserves, youngsters, and guys out of position I have to play them. Market moving in the wrong direction IMO

Philadelphia pk 4u +125

Kiln · Oct 16, 2010

Best of luck today. I noticed that every line moved with your picks. DC is all the way down to +350. I should get in the habit of checking in here sooner. I hope you (we) crush 'em today! :toast: