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Might take the weekend off after that Garcilaso disaster but wanted to toss out some info on MLS. I put a spreadsheet together with the YTD stats which is not all that fn easy to find in this league but a few things stood out like crazy, team by team. questions, thoughts, discussion points are welcome...


Chi Fire - I predicted them to push for a top 3 in East and they're coming around now. Other than GF/GA all the main stats are nearly even and they're one of the most fouled teams in league. They'll continue improving...definitely play-on team

CUSA - stats say to expect their good start to stall which it might already have. getting badly outshot, outcrossed, outcornered, haven't posted a clean sheet, and have fouled nearly 30 more times than opponents. real bad omen! 1H scoring 1/1, 2H scoring 9/8

Colorado - given their incredible injuries they're quite strong in the stats...nearly equal in everything. once they get some boys back they'll be a value

Cbus - biggest stat is they scored just once in 1H and 8x in 2H and GD was -2 vs +4 so clearly they are finishing games well.

DC Utd - ugly and uglier. getting outshot by 45 and have committed 20 more fouls than opposition. I expected them to fall back but not THIS much

FC Dallas - my surprise team for 2013 is rolling and stats follow suit. +6 GD, +6 asst, +13 shots, +13 crosses but have fouled opponent 30 more times than they've been fouled.

Houston - 2nd in league with 127 crosses but have allowed 100. incredibly they've conceded just 22 corners but have only produced 70 fouls against. Stats aren't bad but they're not getting enough SOG with all those crosses

LA Gals - stupid stats really. +45 in shots (!) and have only allowed 15 SOG, 44 crosses, and 14 corners. Cudicini's had to make just 12 saves all season. only allowed 1 first half goal...

Montreal - stats say this team will start dropping. They've allowed 94 shots and 35 corners and are -36 and -17 in those categories. If not bad enough they're -26 in fouls and -2 in 2H goal differential. If not for their 5/1 first half goal differential they'd be a disaster. Don't plan on playing them anytime soon

NE Revs - hard to believe their numbers. -18 shots, -37 crosses, only 18 corners gained, only 12 saves forced against opposition keeper, and 1 goal scored in 1H, 1 in 2H. geezus

NY Red Bulls - sure smells like some overs are coming. lead league in shots, sog, and crosses but giving up nearly as many as they're gaining. They've forced an incredible 123 fouls but have also fouled 93x. Lead league in 1H goals scored but have allowed 7 in 2H.

Philly Union - surprise team so far for me...not their record but their offensive style of play. +12 shots, +20 corners and +14 fouls say they're pressing opposition and goalie has only needed 14 saves. impressive stuff...watch out for philly

Portland - not surprised at their improvement...new coach, solid signings...but their stats are really impressive. +21 in shots stands out as does the league leading +7 2h goal differential. gotta do something about that 1/6 first half goal diff but if you toss out the RBNY game the numbers are even better

RSL - signs of weakness here. -4 in SOG, -5 crosses, -10 corners, -8 fouls and an even 2/2 1h and 5/5 2h goal diff.

SJ - without 7+ key players YTD the stats have to be taken with grain of salt but basically even across the board except for +15 corners. this team will make us a lot of money in the late spring / early summer

Seattle - stats look like they've played half the games they really did. great defense, terrible offense. 2 goals scored in 1H, 1 in 2H....luckily only allowed 1 in 2H. a lot of talent but gotta get healthy before i jump

Sporting KC - stats fit their top position...+45 shots, +55 crosses, +7 corners, and only 14 saves needed. only concern is the 126 fouls conceded

Toronto - all these late goals will kill them this year as their stats say that nothing good will be coming. -8 in assists (brutal), -24 shots, -18 crosses, -17 corners. this will get worse

Vancouver - pretty even across the board as record would suggest. nothing stands out at all but next 10 games really depend on if camilo and mattocks are out of coaches doghouse and actually play in these games.
 

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don't love anything in MLS this week but a couple of 1u plays i'll snag. nothing big, just a few leans that I'm playing. Could have a nice play in Mex on Sunday afternoon...

YTD: 113-9-95 +13.01 (stake 283.24)

Revs vs Union
- there is not a single reason for the Revs to be favored in this one. Jack Mc is for real and the Revs have 2 goals this season. If you can't score you can't win

Union +1/4 1.25u to win 1u

Whitecaps vs FC Dallas
- tough to oppose Dallas here but their collapse in Toronto and the disaster in CUSA tells me they can drop points to anyone. Caps are playing poorly right now and no idea when the coach will stop trying to send messages and actually play his best players but I have to play the pk odds

Vancouver pk 1.25u to win 1.12u


RSL vs LA Galaxy
- actually don't like the Galaxy this week but at 2/1 I have to toss some beer coin on the best team in the league. I didn't learn from the sucker bet 101 game with Nurnberg last week but at least this time I'll limit the pick big time

LA Galaxy .25u to win .50u
 

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Thx for work you've done, here's my thoughts:
Really think foul stats should be dropped. It's extra hard to correlate fouls with anything. They can be result of defensive philosophy and there is no way to find out if they happen near box or in some danger areas. Maybe 95% of them happen in midfield and result in nothing.
As for other categories, would love to see what numbers come up in last season's backtest. This way there can be averages, which can tell a lot of different things. Like with home/road stats, success on the road is main difference between teams, because almost half a league had 8-10 wins at home, but just few had good road stats. Plus you can correlate numbers with results and power rankings, and see the whole picture. Maybe there are some successfull teams who don't need many SOG to win. Or number of corners can be attribute of some non playoff team with combo of good offence and bad defence. Having averages, correlations and trend will help turn numbers into facts.
Right now many stats won't be objective. Different strength of schedule, injuries, sudden changes in form. All these have big impact on current numbers. I understand that you correlate them with your power rankings, but in my opinion, there should be a canvas of averages and "numbers-success" correlations to predict how things will work out for every team. Who improved to a certain level (winning team, elite team), who stayed the same, who is destined to fail soon. Currently working on other stats, but will get to these soon, so hopefully will bring ideas to life and show some particular examples.
 

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Interesting stats, rolltide.

Where do you find stats on crosses into the box? I don't know of any site that tracks those numbers.
 

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-1.25 Union
+0.00 Van
+0.50 LAG

waiting on houston/colorado lineup before making a play on that match
 

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I'm gonna defer to you on this rolltide, But it seems to me that Houston home form , midafternoon Texas weather, , and better line-up says home win....but in the MLS these days betting home favorites (-145 here) is a sure quoitent for losing money.
 

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Colorado at Houston
- Neither Rivero nor Mastroeni again for the Rapids in mf to go along with Brown and Buddle out in attack and Calderon/Wynne out in central defense. Only positive for Rapids is that Jamie Smith starting for first time since July 2012. Houston both Boniek-Garcia and Davis are in lineup...so only one missing player to suspension. Houston loves to cross the ball all day long and that will put a lot of pressure on this Rapids defense. Hopefully get a HT lead as the Rapids will improve in 2H if Rivero and/or Mastroeni sub in

Houston 2u to win 1.4u
 

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I'm gonna defer to you on this rolltide, But it seems to me that Houston home form , midafternoon Texas weather, , and better line-up says home win....but in the MLS these days betting home favorites (-145 here) is a sure quoitent for losing money.

agree...was really waiting on status of Garcia, Davis, Rivero, and Mastroeni and both of Houston's guys are playing...both of Rapids' guys are out. prefer the juice on -1/2 over the -3/4 line as the Rapids have been defending pretty well and a 1-goal win is my prediction
 

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0-1 HT really bad half by Houston. got a few chances but the col high press defense is totally confusing them. this club avg nearly 20 open play crosses per match and have 5 at HT. Col have had the 4 best chances of the match.... not good
 

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1-1 lost....

better 2H for houston and had winner in stoppage time except bruin put the header off the crossbar :(
 

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just passed the 75 game mark...a few more stats:

Over 2.5 = 30, under 2.5 = 47, avg goals = 2.32 (right now MLS is lowest gpg of any of the 3 main pro leagues in USA)
home teams are 37-22-18 (avg of 1.73 ppg) so away team getting a result in 52% of matches (MLS is drawing, by far, higher than the other 2 main pro leagues in USA)
Seattle & Montreal only teams not to draw away already and every team has at least 1 road point. Only 5 teams have failed to win a road match so far (SJ, VAN, DC, TOR, CHI)
Dallas only perfect home team at 5-0-0
Only one team (POR) have matches avg more than 3 gpg while 3 teams (RSL/COL/SEA) have their matches avg less than 2gpg
Four teams (POR, NE, CHI, DC) have failed to lead at HT in their matches. Throw in Philly and those are the only 5 that haven't led at HT at home
Three teams (DAL, LA, PHI) have not trailed at HT in any match.
NE 0/0 at 1H at home, CUSA 0/0 1H away in goal differential
 

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in case you guys haven't seen Alex's table it's a wealth of info. He takes stats on mlssoccer and extrapolates them per possession. great data....

MLS+4.29.png
 

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will toss this in my upcoming weekend thread but took Gladbach +1/2 1u to win .78u for Fri night in Bundesliga
 

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I did backtest of those main stats for last 2 seasons, just to see averages e.t.c. Not very effective in general, because you can't group stats for home/road games for example. There are some stats missing, like how many of those corner kicks actually resulted in goal. Withou it, corner stat is just a number. Generally it will be true that more corners, better chacnes to score. But stats show, that there is no direct correlation between number of corners and goals scored. Chivas was among the top teams in corner kicks, but had fewest goals. Same with fouls, no real value by themselves, need to be connected to something that will show their importance.
So there are just shots/goals stats left. Averages stay the same through the years, and this years unders were result of poor execution.
So league averages are:
GPG APG SPG SOGPG FCG FSG CKG G/SOG SOG/S
20111.291.1612.654.3212.0212.024.600.300.34
20121.321.2612.884.4312.3012.294.740.300.34
20131.151.0812.084.2712.9112.934.680.270.35
*Goal per game; Assissts per game; Shots per game; Shots on goal pg; Two foul stats; Corner stat; Goals/Shot on goals; Shot on goals/Shots.
I divided Goals/Shot on goals; Shot on goals/Shots to get at least something of all these numbers, and you can see that averages are exactly the same for two very different seasons. So numbers show direct correlation between number of shots and goals scored, with average league ratio of 0.1 (=0.34*0.3). So example of turning numbers into meaning will be:
Toronto. They have 2nd worst number of shots, but because of overachieving in terms of scoring efficiency they scored a lot. They score on 36% of shots on goal, while average is 30% historically and 27% this season). Toronto was 26% historically, so it's safe to assume they will hit a wall very soon. With their schedule looking like this, maybe it's coming in May games.
4 MayColorado Rap. Toronto FC
8 MaySan Jose Toronto FC
18 MayToronto FC Columbus Crew
25 MayNew England Toronto FC
1 JunToronto FC Philadelphia
I know all that stuff is pretty obvious, but hopefully added some numbers and little details. Main thing is ofcourse shots stats, that have very strong and consistent correlation.
 

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