MLS 4/1 Picks

Sekrah · Apr 1, 2006

New Season Starting Up! Let's hope for a good one and make some :money8:

All lines at Olympic Sports

DALLAS -1/2 over Chicago +110. Risk 1 unit to win 1.1 unit. -- Chicago missing 4 starters for this match should prove to be a difficult task for them. First game of the season usually is a packed house at all MLS games. Dallas should get pumped up for this one and retain the Brimstone Cup in this heated rivalry.

KANSAS CITY -1/2 over Columbus -118. Risk 2.36 units to win 2 units. -- Columbus were overhauled this offseason. Several important components left while new players are unlikely to have gelled together quickly enough. Columbus figures to be at the bottom of the Eastern Conference this year while Kansas City should be improve.

May have more on LA-NE match later tonight.

Sekrah · Apr 1, 2006

Adding..

Dallas v Chicago.. OVER 2.5 Goals -110. Chicago missing two U.S. national team players from their defense, Tony Sanneh and Chris Armas. Dallas has plenty of fire power with the best forward in the league, Carlos Ruiz.
I like value here on the over. 1.1 unit to win 1 unit.

Sekrah · Apr 1, 2006

2-0 +2.1 units in the early plays.

Okay, now onto LA-NE.. First I should explain my methods.

I use player rating system based on my personal opinion of each player. It's an A through F grading scale:

F - Failure. Shouldn't be playing at this level.
D - Below Average. Bench worthy only. The only place these guys are starting are on teams with thin positions.
C - Average. Worthy of a starting spot on nearly every team in the league.
B - Above Average. Impact player that is important to a team. Deserves a reserve role on a conference all-star team.
A - Excellent. One of the best players in the league at his position. Certain All-Star for his conference, and often National Team quality player.

Los Angeles v New England

Projected Lineup for Los Angeles

GK -- Kevin Hartman (B)
DEF -- Chris Albright (C+)
DEF -- Ugo Ihemelu (C)
DEF -- Tyrone Marshall (B-)
DEF -- Nathan Sturgis (D)
MID -- Paulo Nagamura (C-)
MID -- Cobi Jones (B)
MID -- Peter Vagenas (B)
MID -- Josh Gardner (D)
FWD -- Landon Donovan (A+)
FWD -- Herculez Gomez (B)

Projected Lineup for New England

GK -- Matt Reis (C+)
DEF -- Joey Franchino (B+)
DEF -- Daniel Hernandez (C+)
DEF -- Jay Heaps (B)
D/M -- Shalrie Joseph (C+)
D/M -- James Riley (C-)
MID -- Pat Noonan (B)
MID -- Andy Dorman (C-)
MID -- Steve Ralston (B+)
FWD -- Taylor Twellman (A)
FWD -- Clint Dempsey (A)

Regular Galaxy starting defender Todd Dunivant (B+) is questionable with a calf strain. He had alot of work with the national team this winter and may be given a break here. It sounds as if he won't be 100% if he plays at all. This definently could open up a hole in the back for L.A. with rookie Nathan Sturgis penciled in for Dunivant, for his first career MLS game. Not the best game for him to start with as he'll be coping with National Team pool forwards Twellman and Dempsey who should be in much better form after the national team work this winter. Sturgis (or a less than 100% Dunivant) will also have to cope with Steve Ralston on his flank, one of the most experienced and accomplished MLS wingers in the league.

This is a pecular matchup between one of the best home teams in the league (Los Angeles were 10-3-3 at home last year) and perhaps the best road team last season (New England were 6-5-5 away from home).

With the firepower of both squads, and the defensive issues with Los Angeles, I believe this is setting up for a possible over 2.5 goals. Anytime you get 3 of the best offensive talents in the league on the field (who also have stayed close to top form throughout the winter) against defenders who haven't seen the same top quality action, you can usually expect some fireworks.

Both teams played their first 3 games of 2005 over 2.5 goals

That is our play.

Los Angeles/New England, Over 2.5 Goals -105 (Olympic).. Risk 2.1 Units to win 2 Units.