MLS 2011 preview & round 1

[rolltide]

MLS first kick is tomorrow night so we're on the eve of a new season. Much has changed from last year, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, with the addition of two expansion teams in Vancouver and Portland, both long-time USL participants with solid fan bases. The upper half teams in the East will still be weaker than the West for sure, nothing new there, and we’ve had plenty of offseason moves which you can view at http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/transactions

This year the West looks cut and dry with 3 sure playoff teams (RSL, LA, Dallas), 2 very likely playoff teams (Seattle, Colorado), a fringe team (San Jose), and 3 non-playoff teams (Chivas USA, Portland, Vancouver). The East, aside from RBNY being the best and Toronto the worst, is largely up for grabs. Several rookies are expected to make major contributions in first year out of college and they include Kitchen, Sarkodie, Soares, Bruin, Nagbe, and Ampaipitakwong but more likely occurrence will be top players heading to Europe in the summer (Cummings? Bunbury? Zakuani? Shea? Ream? Montero?) that will throw this preview out the window.

Another thing to keep in mind in 2011 is that the Concacaf Gold Cup will be played this summer which will take a majority of Concacaf talent off these rosters in June. Teams like LA (Ricketts, Donovan, Gonzalez) could be negatively impacted for several weeks.


My top 4 for each category:
MVP: Donovan (LA), Morales (RSL, Ferreira (DAL), Montero (SEA)
Golden Boot: Saborio (RSL), Henry (RBNY), Montero (SEA), Angel (LA)
Top Defender: Olave (RSL), Moor (COL), Marquez (RBNY), Gonzalez (LA)
Breakout player: Agudelo (RBNY), Fernandez (SEA), Opara (SJ), McCarty (DC)
Rookie: Kitchen (DC), Bruin (Hou), Sarkodie (Hou), Castillo (Dal)

My preseason MLS Power Rankings, top to bottom, if teams were healthy. Teams ranked 9-13 are basically ‘take your pick’ right now…

1) Real Salt Lake
2) Los Angeles
3) NY Red Bulls
4) FC Dallas
5) Seattle
6) Colorado
7) Sporting KC
8) San Jose
9) Houston
10) DC United
11) Chicago
12) Philadelphia
13) Columbus
14) New England
15) Chivas USA
16) Portland
17) Toronto
18) Vancouver

as usual will start a new thread for each round and keep a record. Have never been below 109% ROI and don't intend to start in 2011. I have a full preview on word document and if anyone wants it just PM me an email address. Any round 1 bets will follow in this thread.

GL in 2011!

 

[hm2.0]

MLS...first kick ....excited.

 

[hockey8799]

any opinions on the total tonight

 

[rolltide]

LA extremely defensive away and shutout Seattle for 176 meaningful minutes in the playoffs but I don't play unders at -150 so didn't give it much a look. if I took anything it would be tiny on Seattle PK but not playing match for anything worth posting

 

[Going4Broke]

LA +227 ML
SEA +142 ML

Take a little on each and hope someone wins?

O2 -129
U2 +114

O2,2.5 +105
U2,2.5 -120

Hummm.... I may through a little at the Over 2. and maybe put a little on LA.

 

[wannabewhale]

Nice writeup Tide--I always look forward to your MLS selections each week. Here's to a good profitable season for you!!

 

[rolltide]

0-0-0 +0.00

FC Dallas vs Chicago Fire
- Chicago will run a 3-5-2 formation with Gibbs/Anibaba/Mikulic in the back which is hardly intimidating especially with two guys making their first MLS starts. Mikulic played a number of seasons with NK Zagreb but will make his first appearance at center-back in MLS while Anibaba is a 24 year old rookie who has never played professionally and Corey Gibbs is a New England Revs castoff. Not the easiest first game as Dallas were 4th in goals scored last year, 2nd in shots, were the league's 3rd best home team (8-6-1), and are unbeaten against the East in last 7 here with a 5-2-0 13/5 mark including 3-0 win over Chicago. The Fire have a brutal attack with two unknown Uruguayans making their first appearances in this league but Marco Pappa is one of the league's top playmakers. Still, they scored just two goals in preseason and I can't see them walking into Dallas and coming away with a point. FC Dallas have two of the league's best players with MVP Ferreria and Brek Shea and dominated in preseason.

FC Dallas 4u -125 (5u to win 4u)

 

[rolltide]

Colorado vs Portland
- very tough first match for expansion club Portland to play away to the MLS champs in mile high altitude. I don't expect Portland to gain more than maybe 7-9 points away from home this year and likely it won't be in week 1 against the Rapids. Portland will be solid in defense but putrid up front and start the season off without both Sal Zizzo and Darlington Nagbe in the attacking midfield and possibly with a backup goalie against the potent Cummings/Casey partnership. Kenny Cooper is a proven scorer in MLS but he needs playmakers to get him the ball and Portland have nobody on any real quality in attacking mid. Portland are very young with an average age of just 24.6 years and one player over 30. Colorado haven't changed much for last year and should score even more goals with the addition of Nyassi and a full season of Mac Kandji, plus the acquisition of Caleb Folan this week. Colorado known for their home play, just 3 losses in 25 matches, and rarely drop points against weak opposition here. Last year DC United shocked them 1-0 but they were 5-2-0 against the other non-playoff teams they faced in Denver including four 3 goal wins over Philly (4-1), Houston (3-0), New England (3-0), and Chivas USA (3-0). I certainly don't have Portland as an upper-table side so 3 points are expected as sooner or later Colorado will break through the 10 man defense of the Timbers.

Colorado -.75 3u -107

 

[rolltide]

DC United vs Columbus Crew
- DC won't publish their starting lineup so it's a bit of a guessing game but we're likely looking at a 4-4-2 with two first year players in the back along with Jakovic and Zayner and a very good midfield with top rookie Najar, Dax McCarty, Pontius or Quaranta, and Simms in a defensive MF role...very solid! Up front I'd like to see Davies with Ngwenya but they might start horrible Josh Wolff and let Davies come off the bench. DC had a solid preseason and finished it off by winning the Carolina Challenge Cup. There's a lot of hope that they'll improve on their league worst record and 21 goals but other than Wolff they are still very young. Olsen is a coach all players will play really hard for and I can't say the same about Columbus who've been going downhill since Sigi Schmid left for Seattle. Nine productive players departed in the offseason and, according to his twitter account, starting center back Iro is on the bench for this game along with left back Francis. I like the Crew's starting strikers but they have no depth in that position and their midfield is among the league's worst unless Duka and Ekpo fulfill potential this year. I actually have DC rated a bit higher than Columbus right now though I'm skeptical on almost all teams in the East especially DC who won just 6 matches in 2010. No sense in looking at h2h or home/away results as teams are quite different where DC have upgraded massively and Cbus downgraded significantly. Too many question marks to play a big bet here but too much value on DC not to drop a few units on home win.

DC United 2u +150

 

[rolltide]

update on timbers lineup. zizzo recovered but starting keeper, perkins, did not. other than the cooper/perlaza partnership and Jewsbury being a solid MF this is a very poor MLS starting lineup though I do think Zizzo can be really productive in the MLS this year. But he just had his arm in a sling on Wednesday and tough to think his shoulder separation is 100% healed. Adin Brown is the worst keeper starting a match today and Colorado should be all over him.

Forwards: Kenny Cooper, Jorge Perlaza.
Midfielders: Jeremy Hall, Peter Lowry, Jack Jewsbury, Sal Zizzo.
Defenders: Rodney Wallace, Kevin Goldthwaite, Eric Brunner, Steve Purdy.
Goalkeeper: Adin Brown

 

[guil0000]

Bol This year Rolltide I always enjoy reading your stuff

 

[rolltide]

Thx Guil. GL this season!

adding a unit to Colorado bet. I look at that starting back 4 and the goalie and can't see how Portland will defend for 0-0. Perlaza has definite counter attacking ability but Colorado have a very solid, experienced back 4 with one of the best holding MF in MLS. They proved last year that weak teams have little chance in Denver and with the 2010 title banner being raised and a super young Portland team making their MLS debut I see a solid 2 goal win.

add Colorado -.75 1u -111

 

[Going4Broke]

Great day today, thanks for your insight. I look forward to reading your plays.

 

[rolltide]

unless odds move quite a bit will not have a bet on LA Galaxy match

Dallas 1-1
Colorado 3-1
DC 3-1

2-1 +2.00 (staked 11.32, +17.7%)

 

[rolltide]

keep your eyes on the Home Depot Center weather. Fans tailgating have tweeted this looks to be the worst conditions that they've ever seen the Galaxy have to play in. Heavy rain, 20 mph winds, and potential for .5" rain per hour during the game. Considering New England's ultra-defensive mentality could be a low scoring one for sure