Just a reminder. Huge dogs such as Washington are big dogs for a reason. They will lose more times than they win. However, all it takes is hitting about 40% of these to make a profit. Based on that, and the Accuscore numbers, there is a lot of value here. Atlanta, at -200 is under 60%, which is terrible value. According to my system, at -200, Atlanta would have to be at 70% or better to even be looked at. If you hit only 60% of all plays at -200 or higher, you'd lose money.
I guess my main point is you can't expect to have a winning record with the large dogs. What you can expect is to have + units playing dogs, which is all that counts.
BOL!!
I guess my main point is you can't expect to have a winning record with the large dogs. What you can expect is to have + units playing dogs, which is all that counts.
BOL!!
Bronc keep up the good work .....i feel bad for you about everyone asking about the breakdown ...I was one of them ....but the dogs seem so obvious now that I know the system......I guess everyone asking should actually be a flattering compliment....Sox fit another chase system I have on a Home Fave after 2 loses in a row !! :drink:
That's a great catch right there! Thank you. Absolutely driven by pitching.
Washington is taken off the board until it is updated. No play for now with Lowe as pitcher.
Still working the system out, now I know to check pitchers for accuracy. :toast:
4/10 Plays:
Cubs -143
White Sox -143
Royals +164
LAD Under 9.5
Washington is taken off the board until it is updated. No play for now with Lowe as pitcher.
Still working the system out, now I know to check pitchers for accuracy. :toast:
4/10 Plays:
Cubs -143
White Sox -143
Royals +164
LAD Under 9.5
This is a little earlier than 11am PST isn't it??????
But you are counting these as OFFICIAL??
Thanks Broncos625!!
Happy Easter!!
Boy you were right. My bad on this one. No more early posting. Already bitten me on two games. Good call. No more exceptions (unless a game begins before 11am pacific time of course).
Plays will only be posted at 11am pacific time from now on. :toast:
I think you have done a fantastic job laying out the system & are off to a great start way to go!
Couple of suggestions for you:
1. People will continue to ask what is the system - perhaps keep a list of the 3 post numbers where you explain the system so when people ask you can just say - Post 65 72 98 etc....
2. Maybe find out from accuscore which books they use to base their numbers off, so you can keep an eye on that books line movement.
3. As for the timing of plays - that is a toughie b/c pitchers can be scratched at warm up, I recommend picking a time before a game starts say 1 hour or 30 minutes etc... to determine if the pay is a go or not.
Thats my input it's meant to make you life easier - just trying to be constructive.
Thanks again for sharing and good luck with the plays!
Powerz
Couple of suggestions for you:
1. People will continue to ask what is the system - perhaps keep a list of the 3 post numbers where you explain the system so when people ask you can just say - Post 65 72 98 etc....
2. Maybe find out from accuscore which books they use to base their numbers off, so you can keep an eye on that books line movement.
3. As for the timing of plays - that is a toughie b/c pitchers can be scratched at warm up, I recommend picking a time before a game starts say 1 hour or 30 minutes etc... to determine if the pay is a go or not.
Thats my input it's meant to make you life easier - just trying to be constructive.
Thanks again for sharing and good luck with the plays!
Powerz
Alright, I've made it about as easy as possible to understand here. I have broken the entire system down into "If" statements. If you don't get it after reading this, I don't think anyone can help you. :lol:
Favorites:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
></o>
<o> </o>
If juice is under -150 then must be 63%
If juice is -150 through -175 then must be 65%
If juice is -176 through -199 then must be 67%
If juice is over -200 AND % is 70% then play RL only.
<o> </o>
Favorite RL:<o></o>
<o> </o>
If juice is under -150 AND favorite is 66% or higher, 1 unit RL
If juice is -150 through -175 AND favorite is 68% or higher, 1 unit RL
If juice is -176 through -199 AND favorite is 70% or higher, 1 unit RL
<o> </o>
Dogs:<o></o>
<o> </o>
If juice is +120 or better AND dog is at 53% or better, play dog
If favorite juice is -150 through -199 AND favorite is under 63% play dog.
If favorite juice is -200 or higher AND favorite is under 65% play dog
<o> </o>
Totals:<o></o>
<o> </o>
Straight 60% or better is a play on that total.
Favorites:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
> </o>If juice is under -150 then must be 63%
If juice is -150 through -175 then must be 65%
If juice is -176 through -199 then must be 67%
If juice is over -200 AND % is 70% then play RL only.
<o
> </o>Favorite RL:<o
></o><o
> </o>If juice is under -150 AND favorite is 66% or higher, 1 unit RL
If juice is -150 through -175 AND favorite is 68% or higher, 1 unit RL
If juice is -176 through -199 AND favorite is 70% or higher, 1 unit RL
<o
> </o>Dogs:<o
></o><o
> </o>If juice is +120 or better AND dog is at 53% or better, play dog
If favorite juice is -150 through -199 AND favorite is under 63% play dog.
If favorite juice is -200 or higher AND favorite is under 65% play dog
<o
> </o>Totals:<o
></o><o
> </o>Straight 60% or better is a play on that total.
