Alright, here it goes....
First check point is checking value of the favs. If fav juice is -150 or higher, and they don't even meet the first level, which is 63%, the dog is the play.
For example. Mets are -160 vs. Anyteam. For the Mets to be a play, they would have to be at 65% or better. Now let's say their % is only 62%, anyteam would be the play since the Mets didn't even reach 63%, which is the minimum % for a fav under -150. Now if the Mets fall between 63-64.9%, no play on that game period.
For RL on Mets, the % has to be at least 3% higher than minimum needed for a play. So if Mets at -160 were at 68% or better, there would be play on Mets RL.
Second check point: If a dog has a percentage of at least 53%, and are valued at least at +120, the dog is the automatic play. This is based on value.
For example. We'll use Colorado for today. Long term, out of 100 plays, this exact play will net about 56 units (using my betting at 3 units per game). Theoretically, you'll win 53 and lose 47 of these bets. 53*3.72=197.16 units won. 47*3=141 units lost.
Hope that clears up how I will determine doggies this season.
Ok, Sorry if I'm not getting this. Isn't the value, or lack thereof, of a potential play based on comparing the chance of a team winning vs. the book's ML (implied chance of winning)? If the ML changes enough, wouldn't that render some plays null? In this case, I know that at 53% chance of winning according to Accuscore is an automatic play on Colorado anywhere above +120; however, if this falls far enough, in this case to +115, wouldn't that change our analysis assuming that the accuscore projection is still at 53% for Colorado to win outright? Sorry if I am missing something obviious. Thanks.
I see that it is now not a play, but using the situation as a future example would help me understand this system.
I see that it is now not a play, but using the situation as a future example would help me understand this system.
You are absolutely right. However, MLB is unique from any other sport because of fluctuating ML from book to book. So a play at 53% at +120 is an official play, if you get it at +115, while it wouldn't qualify as a play, there is still the same chance of it winning. That's why it is up to the individual whether or not to play at different odds. At lesser odds, comes lesser value though.
Yes, as I've said, I have created a forumula and use specifics from Accuscore to pick my plays. My selecting dogs often has nothing to do with their %, but what the fav % and ML value is.
I explained this in detail above in response to your last question. These plays follow what I laid out. See Mets example and you should understand.
