i can just tell you all. I do not really care. It is simlar to what Novato does for baseball. Where I live, i have a buddy who runs a cardroom and used to be a oddsmaker. One day in 2003 I believe, I was letting him know my football picks. We would trade since we are both good cappers. Then he told me.
"You know what the most common trend is, since as long as I worked in Vegas that nobody seems to notice." "Betting on Home Teams that are underdogs versus Divisonal Rivals." (Example Eagles +3 at home versus Cowboys.) " Now remeber', he told me, "If a teams starts out as a dog then the line switches to a favorite, they were still a dog, so take them". "Its anywhere from a 60% to a 70% trend" "You cannot beat that."
Sure enough it has worked. Now, one year I remember I did only like 58% or something like that, so I have made changes. The changes are based of certain sitiuations. (like how novato passed on pittsburg pirates series) For example last year the Pats decided to kill their divison, so i laid off after the first divison away game i lost. The first week of last season I know I did bad. I think i went 1-2 or 2-2, because I do not remember if San Fransico started as a dog then moved to a favorite. (I know Cinn did.)
Regular Season Date Vs Score Week NE Line O/U ( New England Last Year)
Saturday 12/29/07 @ N.Y. Giants W 38-35 Week 17 L -13 O 46.5
Sunday 12/23/07 Miami W 28-7 Week 16 L -22 U 45
Sunday 12/16/07 N.Y. Jets W 20-10 Week 15 L -20.5 U 41.5
Sunday 12/09/07 Pittsburgh W 34-13 Week 14 W -10.5 U 49
Monday 12/03/07 @ Baltimore W 27-24 Week 13 L -19 O 46
Sunday Night 11/25/07 Philadelphia W 31-28 Week 12 L -24 O 52
Sunday Night 11/18/07 @ Buffalo W 56-10 Week 11 W -16 O 47 (laid off)
BYE
Sunday 11/04/07 @ Indianapolis W 24-20 Week 9 L -5 U 56 (i won*)
Sunday 10/28/07 Washington W 52-7 Week 8 W -15 O 46.5
Sunday 10/21/07 @ Miami W 49-28 Week 7 W -15.5 O 49.5 (laid off)
Sunday 10/14/07 @ Dallas W 48-27 Week 6 W -5 O 52
Sunday 10/07/07 Cleveland W 34-17 Week 5 W -15.5 O 48
Monday 10/01/07 @ Cincinnati W 34-13 Week 4 W -7.5 U 54
Sunday 09/23/07 Buffalo W 38-7 Week 3 W -16.5 O 41
Sunday Night 09/16/07 San Diego W 38-14 Week 2 W -3.5 O 46
Sunday 09/09/07 @ N.Y. Jets W 38-14 Week 1 W -6 O 41.5 (first loss) (week one)
He warned me that this was way more succesful when the divisions were larger (before 2001) *So rarely I will include old division rivals. Like when the Pats played the Colts, but I really have to like the game. I usually wait on lines only if I feel the public is going to raise it in favor of a dog. Research it and take a look. Remember though I do not play every game.