[h=1]MLB second baseman tiers: Shrinking defensive role changes expectations[/h]
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Teams have very gradually asked more offensively from second basemen over the decades, a slow-moving trend that dates back to the 1950s. Lately, though, you have to wonder if that's the only thing that's changing at the position.
One undeniable trend is that second basemen hit for more power than they used to. According to positional data from Baseball Prospectus, dating back to 1951, this been an up-and-down proposition over the years, but it has settled in at the upper end of the roller coaster.
In 1951, those who played most of their games at second base accounted for 7.68 percent of all homers hit. That number began to decline immediately from there, dropping all the way to a low of 4.71 percent by 1972. There wasn't a single keystone player to hit even 20 homers in a season from 1968 to 1972. In fact, it happened only twice during both the 1950s and 1960s.
Then things started to change -- slightly -- with the maturation of slugging second basemen like Davey Johnson, Joe Morgan and Bobby Grich in the 1970s. Still, that 1951 homer apex of 7.68 percent wasn't matched again until 2001, when it hit 7.73. There was a one-year dip in 2002, but in each season since then, second basemen have accounted for at least 8 percent of homers.
We reached peak second-base slugging in 2016, at 10.43 percent, more than a twofold spike over the 1972 nadir. A record 13 primary second basemen topped 20 homers in 2016, nearly half the regulars in baseball. That number -- 13 -- matched the total of all keystoners to surpass 20 homers from 1951 to 1984. In 2016, second basemen hit more total homers (585) than catchers, shortstops, center fielders and designated hitters. They also set a new mark for the position by accounting for 12.4 percent of all runs created.
However, the trend has begun to ebb. The homer total for second basemen has fallen from 585 to 558 to 509 over the past couple of years. The share of runs created has fallen to 10.9 percent. Why?
That's hard to say, and it's too early to even call it a true reversal in thetrend. The offensive levels for second base remain much higher than they've been for much of baseball history. It's not a matter of moving players around. Twenty-one second basemen had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in 2018, the highest total in 11 years.
You might think that the pendulum is swinging back toward defense at the spot, but that brings us to another, perhaps less detectable, trend: Second basemen are also doing less on defense.
Total chances for every position except catcher are at lower levels than they used to be. Based on data from FanGraphs.com, here is the difference in chances per game for each position, with 1956 compared to last season:
P -0.56
C 3.22
1B -1.05
2B -1.20
SS -1.13
3B -0.60
LF -0.05
CF -0.28
RF -0.20
You probably have already guessed why this is. The relentless climb of strikeout levels has meant less action for every defender on the field, at least those without a face mask and a chest protector. Combine that change with the more recent heightened emphasis on fly ball hitting, and infielders are disproportionately affected -- no position more than second base.
Generally speaking, there have always been around 3.3 infield fielding chances for every outfield chance. That ranged up to 3.7 or so for most of the pitching-heavy 1960s, but has dropped to below 3.2 for most of the past decade. However, last season that ratio dove to a record low of 3.01, down from 3.16 in 2017. With any further decrease, we'll dip under 3 for the first time.
Second basemen handled 15.52 percent of all non-catcher fielding chances during the 2018 season, the lowest figure ever. (Or at least since 1956, the first season for which we have a full data set.) The figures for shortstops are at an all-time low as well, but the drop hasn't been as severe.
What is going on? Could the shift have anything to do with this?
Well, it almost certainly does. While shifts still account for only a portion of total defensive configurations, there simply didn't used to be so many second basemen playing shallow right field. There didn't used to be so many shortstops playing behind the second-base bag, or often to the first-base side of it. Fielders are just not positioned where they used to be positioned.
The bottom line is that second basemen are handling less of a defensive load than ever before, which in turn makes fielding a slightly less crucial aspect of valuing them as a player. We've seen that in play, with teams like the Dodgers and Brewers at times de-emphasizing range at second base, instead looking for offensive production and leaving the run-prevention part of it to the guys who are generating the hitters' spray charts.
It appears that in 2019 baseball, the once-hallowed ability to turn a double play has become marginally less important than the ability to turn around a fastball and drive it into the seats. And the ability to range behind the back of second base as Roberto Alomar once did is now less important than knowing how to read the positioning chart on your wrist as the count changes.
Is this better baseball or worse? Probably it's neither. It's just different. In any event, the qualities that once were trademarks of the best second basemen don't appear to be the quite the same ones teams are using to evaluate the position in today's game
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[h=2]TIER I: FRANCHISE PERFORMERS[/h]None. I promise you there are 15 players (across all positions) that have been placed on this tier. We'll start getting to them Friday.
[h=2]TIER II: ALL-STARS[/h]Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Position rank: 1
hWAR: 4.81
After winning the 2017 American League MVP award and leading the Astros to their first World Series crown, there almost had to be no place to go but down for Altuve. Indeed, after winning two consecutive batting crowns and after four straight seasons of leading the AL with 200 or more hits, Altuve posted his worst season since 2013. It's all relative. Despite battling knee trouble for much of the season, which necessitated surgery after Houston was knocked out of the playoffs, Altuve still hit .316/.386/.451 with 13 homers and 17 steals.
The down season put a punctuation mark -- perhaps only a comma, but a mark nonetheless -- on a remarkable peak performance. According to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, Altuve created 267 runs during his 2016 and 2017 seasons. Since 1901, the only second basemen with more over a two-year span have been Rogers Hornsby, Charlie Gehringer, Joe Morgan, fellow Astro Craig Biggio and Nap Lajoie. They're all Hall of Famers. Someday, Altuve might well join them in Cooperstown, New York.
Robinson Cano, New York Mets
Position rank: 2
hWAR: 3.71
Cano has been one of the most productive hitters of the 2010s and one of the 20 or so best second basemen of all time. His Hall of Fame case would be almost without blemish if not for last season's 80-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. Suffice to say, as Cano returns to New York to don the Mets' pinstripes rather than the Yankees', 2019 will be key to refurbishing a tarnished reputation, at least in the minds of some future Hall voters.
The suspension meant that Cano's 2018 season was bifurcated, but overall it was a strong performance. His .845 OPS was just off his career mark of .848, while his on-base percentage (.374) was 19 points better than his career standard. That kind of post-35 performance is exactly the level that Hall second basemen like Hornsby, Gehringer, Lajoie and Eddie Collins maintained late into their careers. Cano had a .825 OPS before his suspension and .860 after it, which bodes well for the Mets.
Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
Position rank: 3
hWAR: 3.50
Just when debates about whether Baez was the National League's MVP front-runner started to get heated, he settled the furor by going ice-cold. Beginning with his game Sept. 3, Baez hit just .245 the rest of the way as the Cubs limped down the finish and wound up losing first place in the NL Central to the upstart Brewers. That took some of the shine off Baez's season, but it was a great one in any event. Still only 25, Baez hit 34 homers, the most for any Cubs middle infielder not named Ernie Banks, Ryne Sandberg and Rogers Hornsby. He also became the first Cub to lead the league in RBIs since Sammy Sosa in 2001.
Baez will never be a patient hitter, and his propensity for swinging from his heels borders on legendary. Still, he has managed to harness these qualities to become a tougher out at the plate. His on-base percentage (.326) was below average, but it is the best he has done yet and was just enough to keep pitchers near the strike zone, where he is as dangerous as anyone. He accomplished this by becoming more of a line-drive hitter than a pure lift guy and showing a heightened willingness to go to opposite field. It's a maturation that he needs to continue.
Baez will begin the season as the Cubs' starting shortstop while teammate Addison Russell serves a suspension for violating the league's domestic violence policy. Depending on how long it takes Russell to earn his way back onto the field, Baez might end up at short for a good part of the season. He's terrific defensively wherever he plays.
[h=2]TIER III: FIRST-DIVISION REGULARS[/h]Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals
Position rank: 4
hWAR: 3.22
Merrifield was 27 years old when he debuted in the majors for the then-defending-champion Royals in 2016. He's been nothing short of terrific ever since. He's led the AL in stolen bases the past two years, though given the composition of the 2019 Royals, it's no sure thing he'll even lead his team this time around. He also paced the circuit with 192 hits, a club record for second basemen. After the season, K.C. inked Merrifield to a four-year contract extension worth a reported $16.25 million.
Merrifield should be worth the money, even though he hit his 30th birthday in January. He has measured as better than average at second base thus far in the majors, but he has the versatility to move to any outfield spot or to an infield corner. The more he's seen of big league pitching, the better he has done. But his age is his age, and if the Royals don't show signs that general manager Dayton Moore's reshuffling project is gathering rapid momentum, you have to figure Merrifield will be a coveted trade target. The Royals might simply like him too much to move him.
Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
Position rank: 5
hWAR: 3.16
You can almost envision an alternate universe where the Cubs never traded for Aroldis Chapman and sidestepped the Russell fallout by dealing him before he ever got into trouble. They would have done that for baseball reasons, because it would have been a chance to set up a Torres-Baez middle infield that would have been too good to pass up. After a high-profile minor league apprenticeship, Torres finally arrived in the majors in 2018 and he did not disappoint, hitting 24 homers and finishing third in AL Rookie of the Year voting despite playing the entire campaign at age 21.
Torres' 24 homers were tied for the third-most by a middle infielder 21 or younger. The tie is with Atlanta's Ozzie Albies, who also hit 24 homers as a 21-year-old second baseman last season. The future of the position is bright! The only middle infielders that young to hit more dingers were Alex Rodriguez (36 HRs, 1996) and Cal Ripken Jr. (28 HRs, 1982), and they were both shortstops. Heady stuff. The most by a primary second baseman was 19, by Bill Mazeroski in 1958.
Torres still has his rough edges. He could stand to make more contact, and his defensive metrics were merely average. The latter could be more of an issue in 2019 as Torres might have to log more time at shortstop until teammate Didi Gregorius recovers from his Tommy John surgery. The Yankees did sign Troy Tulowitzki, but he is just a wee bit injury-prone.
Chris Taylor, Los Angeles Dodgers
Position rank: 6
hWAR: 2.75
In some ways, Taylor is the consummate current-day Dodger. He is a three-true-outcomes artist whose production was greatly honed by L.A.'s analytics machine, he's quiet as a mouse -- only grittier -- and plays solid defense at an impressive combination of key defensive positions. That's not to say Taylor is a mere organizational automaton. His individuality is expressed by a rather inexplicable choice of Jerry Reed's "Amos Moses" as a walk-up song.
Anyway, Taylor's NL-high strikeout total began to spiral to uncomfortable levels last season. He needs to improve his consistency or the Dodgers might stop seeing him as an exemplar of the 21st century, everyday utility player. With the way the depth chart sets up at present, it seems likely that Taylor will be the Dodgers' closest thing to a regular second baseman.
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves
Position rank: 7
hWAR: 2.70
Early in the season, Albies looked like a he was headed for the kind of MVP challenge that Baez eventually mounted. In some ways, Albies was reminiscent of an even younger Baez, with his all-out style of play and flair for the spectacular on defense. Beyond the flash, early on he flat-out raked. On May 22, Albies' .394 wOBA ranked 22nd in baseball. He fell off badly down the stretch, with a .606 OPS in August and .656 in September, even as the Braves secured their first NL East crown since 2013.
Like Baez, Albies is often an overaggressive hitter who shows a rather nasty platoon split at this early juncture of his career. Last season, he hit .335 with a .905 OPS against lefties, but just .231 with a .696 OPS against righties. He's a switch-hitter, and his progress from the left side of the plate will be key to his continued ascension as a future All-Star. The projection systems tout a disparate range of infielders from Francisco Lindor to Rougned Odor. Albies needs to hone his approach to be more like the former than the latter.
Brian Dozier, Washington Nationals
Position rank: 8
hWAR: 2.39
Dozier was drafted by the Twins in 2009, and until last season's July 31 trade deadline, that was the only organization he'd known. But then he was sent to the super-deep Dodgers to be another cog in that division-title machine. It did not work out; Dozier hit just .182 for the Dodgers and .215 overall, with poor defensive metrics to boot. His patience and pop off the bat remained intact and, surprisingly, you can't point to a lack of contact for Dozier's troubles. His strikeout rate (19.4 percent) was actually his lowest since 2014.
The culprit was a sinking BABIP (.240 and just .196 for L.A.). The good news is that Dozier's hard-hit rate was better than ever. He seems like an excellent bounce-back candidate. Dozier ended up playing a bit role during L.A.'s postseason run. After signing with the Nationals over the winter, Dozier is now on his third organization in less than a year. His ranking is driven by projections still riding the sails of the 76 homers Dozier hit over the 2016 and 2017 seasons, but also seems realistic given the source of his 2018 travails.
DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees
Position rank: 9
hWAR: 2.34
At some point, LeMahieu's days as an everyday second baseman seem numbered. If Tulowitzki proves healthy, it might happen in spring training. Otherwise, it figures to happen when Gregorius returns. Either way, LeMahieu will be an important piece for the Yankees in what ultimately figures to be a super-utility role. At the very least, the three-time Gold Glover's defense will be crucial in an infield that struggled in that area last season.
LeMahieu's numbers tumbled badly in his final season with Colorado, though he spent three different stints in the disabled list (now the injury list) with, in order: a strained hamstring, a sprained thumb and a strained oblique. It was a tough season. Beyond getting healthy, LeMahieu has to prove that he can hit away from Coors Field. For his career, he has a .835 home OPS against .673 on the road.
[h=2]TIER IV: SECOND-DIVISION REGULAR[/h]Jonathan Schoop, Minnesota Twins
Position rank: 10
hWAR: 2.26
Like Dozier, Schoop left the only organization he'd played for and became a prized in-season pickup for a contender, landing with the Brewers at the July deadline. And like Dozier, he struggled. Schoop hit .202/.246/.311 in 46 games for Milwaukee, then went 0-for-8 during the postseason. Finally -- like Dozier -- he finds himself in the top 10 of his position because of what he did in previous seasons. Ironically, he'll try to justify those forecasts in Dozier's ex-gig as the everyday second baseman in Minnesota.
Schoop's troubles were harder to explain than Dozier's were. He struck out more and walked less. His power bat was still there in Baltimore, but didn't follow him to Milwaukee. The Brewers couldn't explain it. Milwaukee has had tremendous success with improving players coming in from other organizations, but with Schoop, it just didn't work out. Schoop did post above-average numbers in defensive runs saved but even in that, he committed seven errors after moving to the Brewers, posting a .934 fielding percentage. It just wasn't his year. However, Schoop is just 27 years old, so he still has a couple of prime seasons to rebound from his down year.
OTHER TIER IV: 11. Jurickson Profar, Oakland Athletics (2.26 hWAR); 12. Cesar Hernandez, Philadelphia Phillies (2.23 hWAR); 13. Scooter Gennett, Cincinnati Reds (2.08 hWAR); 14. Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox (2.04 hWAR); 15. Wilmer Flores, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.98 hWAR); 16. Adam Frazier, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.91 hWAR); 17. Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers(1.89 hWAR); 18. Kolten Wong, St. Louis Cardinals (1.88 hWAR); 19. Joey Wendle, Tampa Bay Rays (1.72 hWAR); 20. Joe Panik, San Francisco Giants(1.71 hWAR; 21. Enrique Hernandez, Dodgers (1.66 hWAR); 22. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox (1.56 hWAR); 23. Luis Urias, San Diego Padres (1.56 hWAR); 24. Starlin Castro, Miami Marlins (1.49 hWAR)
This is deep tier of very good players and features a number of rising players, like Moncada, Odor, Wendle and Urias. If defense were the only criteria, Wong might be Tier I, but his bat keeps him firmly in this class. The hoping-for-health bounce-back candidates are Panik and, obviously, Pedroia. You don't have to be a Red Sox fan to hope for a full season from one of the game's greats. According to FanGraphs, Pedroia ranks third among active second basemen with 46.6 career fWAR, behind Cano (56.3) and Ian Kinsler (47.7).
The player to watch here is Profar, who finally logged a full season after getting shuffled about by the Rangers for years. He's in a virtual dead heat with Schoop, falling short by a decimal point not displayed here. He responded with a .254/.335/.458 season with 20 homers and 10 stolen bases. He played only 10 games at second base but that's the position he's primed to play in Oakland after the departure of Jed Lowrie. Profar debuted in the majors in 2012 but will be only 26 when the 2019 season begins. I'm excited to see how he responds to some new voices.
TOP FROM TIER V: 25. Jonathan Villar, Baltimore Orioles; 26. Neil Walker, Marlins; 27. Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies; 28. Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians; 29. Ian Kinsler, Padres; 30. Dee Gordon, Mariners.
I don't have much to say about this group, so I'll just drop a note about McMahon, the youngest of the group. He enters camp in a three-way battle to replace LeMahieu in Colorado, along with utility player Garrett Hampson and top prospect Brendan Rodgers. The best things McMahon has going for him right now are versatility -- he was slated to be the Rockies' regular at first base at this time last season -- and patience. He's walked in 9.3 percent of his plate appearances as a professional. Because of that and because he's left-handed, Joey Votto shows up on his list of comparables in both PECOTA and the Davenport projections. No pressure, kid.
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Teams have very gradually asked more offensively from second basemen over the decades, a slow-moving trend that dates back to the 1950s. Lately, though, you have to wonder if that's the only thing that's changing at the position.
One undeniable trend is that second basemen hit for more power than they used to. According to positional data from Baseball Prospectus, dating back to 1951, this been an up-and-down proposition over the years, but it has settled in at the upper end of the roller coaster.
In 1951, those who played most of their games at second base accounted for 7.68 percent of all homers hit. That number began to decline immediately from there, dropping all the way to a low of 4.71 percent by 1972. There wasn't a single keystone player to hit even 20 homers in a season from 1968 to 1972. In fact, it happened only twice during both the 1950s and 1960s.
Then things started to change -- slightly -- with the maturation of slugging second basemen like Davey Johnson, Joe Morgan and Bobby Grich in the 1970s. Still, that 1951 homer apex of 7.68 percent wasn't matched again until 2001, when it hit 7.73. There was a one-year dip in 2002, but in each season since then, second basemen have accounted for at least 8 percent of homers.
We reached peak second-base slugging in 2016, at 10.43 percent, more than a twofold spike over the 1972 nadir. A record 13 primary second basemen topped 20 homers in 2016, nearly half the regulars in baseball. That number -- 13 -- matched the total of all keystoners to surpass 20 homers from 1951 to 1984. In 2016, second basemen hit more total homers (585) than catchers, shortstops, center fielders and designated hitters. They also set a new mark for the position by accounting for 12.4 percent of all runs created.
However, the trend has begun to ebb. The homer total for second basemen has fallen from 585 to 558 to 509 over the past couple of years. The share of runs created has fallen to 10.9 percent. Why?
That's hard to say, and it's too early to even call it a true reversal in thetrend. The offensive levels for second base remain much higher than they've been for much of baseball history. It's not a matter of moving players around. Twenty-one second basemen had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in 2018, the highest total in 11 years.
You might think that the pendulum is swinging back toward defense at the spot, but that brings us to another, perhaps less detectable, trend: Second basemen are also doing less on defense.
Total chances for every position except catcher are at lower levels than they used to be. Based on data from FanGraphs.com, here is the difference in chances per game for each position, with 1956 compared to last season:
P -0.56
C 3.22
1B -1.05
2B -1.20
SS -1.13
3B -0.60
LF -0.05
CF -0.28
RF -0.20
You probably have already guessed why this is. The relentless climb of strikeout levels has meant less action for every defender on the field, at least those without a face mask and a chest protector. Combine that change with the more recent heightened emphasis on fly ball hitting, and infielders are disproportionately affected -- no position more than second base.
Generally speaking, there have always been around 3.3 infield fielding chances for every outfield chance. That ranged up to 3.7 or so for most of the pitching-heavy 1960s, but has dropped to below 3.2 for most of the past decade. However, last season that ratio dove to a record low of 3.01, down from 3.16 in 2017. With any further decrease, we'll dip under 3 for the first time.
Second basemen handled 15.52 percent of all non-catcher fielding chances during the 2018 season, the lowest figure ever. (Or at least since 1956, the first season for which we have a full data set.) The figures for shortstops are at an all-time low as well, but the drop hasn't been as severe.
What is going on? Could the shift have anything to do with this?
Well, it almost certainly does. While shifts still account for only a portion of total defensive configurations, there simply didn't used to be so many second basemen playing shallow right field. There didn't used to be so many shortstops playing behind the second-base bag, or often to the first-base side of it. Fielders are just not positioned where they used to be positioned.
The bottom line is that second basemen are handling less of a defensive load than ever before, which in turn makes fielding a slightly less crucial aspect of valuing them as a player. We've seen that in play, with teams like the Dodgers and Brewers at times de-emphasizing range at second base, instead looking for offensive production and leaving the run-prevention part of it to the guys who are generating the hitters' spray charts.
It appears that in 2019 baseball, the once-hallowed ability to turn a double play has become marginally less important than the ability to turn around a fastball and drive it into the seats. And the ability to range behind the back of second base as Roberto Alomar once did is now less important than knowing how to read the positioning chart on your wrist as the count changes.
Is this better baseball or worse? Probably it's neither. It's just different. In any event, the qualities that once were trademarks of the best second basemen don't appear to be the quite the same ones teams are using to evaluate the position in today's game
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[h=2]TIER I: FRANCHISE PERFORMERS[/h]None. I promise you there are 15 players (across all positions) that have been placed on this tier. We'll start getting to them Friday.
[h=2]TIER II: ALL-STARS[/h]Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Position rank: 1
hWAR: 4.81
After winning the 2017 American League MVP award and leading the Astros to their first World Series crown, there almost had to be no place to go but down for Altuve. Indeed, after winning two consecutive batting crowns and after four straight seasons of leading the AL with 200 or more hits, Altuve posted his worst season since 2013. It's all relative. Despite battling knee trouble for much of the season, which necessitated surgery after Houston was knocked out of the playoffs, Altuve still hit .316/.386/.451 with 13 homers and 17 steals.
The down season put a punctuation mark -- perhaps only a comma, but a mark nonetheless -- on a remarkable peak performance. According to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, Altuve created 267 runs during his 2016 and 2017 seasons. Since 1901, the only second basemen with more over a two-year span have been Rogers Hornsby, Charlie Gehringer, Joe Morgan, fellow Astro Craig Biggio and Nap Lajoie. They're all Hall of Famers. Someday, Altuve might well join them in Cooperstown, New York.
Robinson Cano, New York Mets
Position rank: 2
hWAR: 3.71
Cano has been one of the most productive hitters of the 2010s and one of the 20 or so best second basemen of all time. His Hall of Fame case would be almost without blemish if not for last season's 80-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. Suffice to say, as Cano returns to New York to don the Mets' pinstripes rather than the Yankees', 2019 will be key to refurbishing a tarnished reputation, at least in the minds of some future Hall voters.
The suspension meant that Cano's 2018 season was bifurcated, but overall it was a strong performance. His .845 OPS was just off his career mark of .848, while his on-base percentage (.374) was 19 points better than his career standard. That kind of post-35 performance is exactly the level that Hall second basemen like Hornsby, Gehringer, Lajoie and Eddie Collins maintained late into their careers. Cano had a .825 OPS before his suspension and .860 after it, which bodes well for the Mets.
Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
Position rank: 3
hWAR: 3.50
Just when debates about whether Baez was the National League's MVP front-runner started to get heated, he settled the furor by going ice-cold. Beginning with his game Sept. 3, Baez hit just .245 the rest of the way as the Cubs limped down the finish and wound up losing first place in the NL Central to the upstart Brewers. That took some of the shine off Baez's season, but it was a great one in any event. Still only 25, Baez hit 34 homers, the most for any Cubs middle infielder not named Ernie Banks, Ryne Sandberg and Rogers Hornsby. He also became the first Cub to lead the league in RBIs since Sammy Sosa in 2001.
Baez will never be a patient hitter, and his propensity for swinging from his heels borders on legendary. Still, he has managed to harness these qualities to become a tougher out at the plate. His on-base percentage (.326) was below average, but it is the best he has done yet and was just enough to keep pitchers near the strike zone, where he is as dangerous as anyone. He accomplished this by becoming more of a line-drive hitter than a pure lift guy and showing a heightened willingness to go to opposite field. It's a maturation that he needs to continue.
Baez will begin the season as the Cubs' starting shortstop while teammate Addison Russell serves a suspension for violating the league's domestic violence policy. Depending on how long it takes Russell to earn his way back onto the field, Baez might end up at short for a good part of the season. He's terrific defensively wherever he plays.
[h=2]TIER III: FIRST-DIVISION REGULARS[/h]Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals
Position rank: 4
hWAR: 3.22
Merrifield was 27 years old when he debuted in the majors for the then-defending-champion Royals in 2016. He's been nothing short of terrific ever since. He's led the AL in stolen bases the past two years, though given the composition of the 2019 Royals, it's no sure thing he'll even lead his team this time around. He also paced the circuit with 192 hits, a club record for second basemen. After the season, K.C. inked Merrifield to a four-year contract extension worth a reported $16.25 million.
Merrifield should be worth the money, even though he hit his 30th birthday in January. He has measured as better than average at second base thus far in the majors, but he has the versatility to move to any outfield spot or to an infield corner. The more he's seen of big league pitching, the better he has done. But his age is his age, and if the Royals don't show signs that general manager Dayton Moore's reshuffling project is gathering rapid momentum, you have to figure Merrifield will be a coveted trade target. The Royals might simply like him too much to move him.
Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
Position rank: 5
hWAR: 3.16
You can almost envision an alternate universe where the Cubs never traded for Aroldis Chapman and sidestepped the Russell fallout by dealing him before he ever got into trouble. They would have done that for baseball reasons, because it would have been a chance to set up a Torres-Baez middle infield that would have been too good to pass up. After a high-profile minor league apprenticeship, Torres finally arrived in the majors in 2018 and he did not disappoint, hitting 24 homers and finishing third in AL Rookie of the Year voting despite playing the entire campaign at age 21.
Torres' 24 homers were tied for the third-most by a middle infielder 21 or younger. The tie is with Atlanta's Ozzie Albies, who also hit 24 homers as a 21-year-old second baseman last season. The future of the position is bright! The only middle infielders that young to hit more dingers were Alex Rodriguez (36 HRs, 1996) and Cal Ripken Jr. (28 HRs, 1982), and they were both shortstops. Heady stuff. The most by a primary second baseman was 19, by Bill Mazeroski in 1958.
Torres still has his rough edges. He could stand to make more contact, and his defensive metrics were merely average. The latter could be more of an issue in 2019 as Torres might have to log more time at shortstop until teammate Didi Gregorius recovers from his Tommy John surgery. The Yankees did sign Troy Tulowitzki, but he is just a wee bit injury-prone.
Chris Taylor, Los Angeles Dodgers
Position rank: 6
hWAR: 2.75
In some ways, Taylor is the consummate current-day Dodger. He is a three-true-outcomes artist whose production was greatly honed by L.A.'s analytics machine, he's quiet as a mouse -- only grittier -- and plays solid defense at an impressive combination of key defensive positions. That's not to say Taylor is a mere organizational automaton. His individuality is expressed by a rather inexplicable choice of Jerry Reed's "Amos Moses" as a walk-up song.
Anyway, Taylor's NL-high strikeout total began to spiral to uncomfortable levels last season. He needs to improve his consistency or the Dodgers might stop seeing him as an exemplar of the 21st century, everyday utility player. With the way the depth chart sets up at present, it seems likely that Taylor will be the Dodgers' closest thing to a regular second baseman.
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves
Position rank: 7
hWAR: 2.70
Early in the season, Albies looked like a he was headed for the kind of MVP challenge that Baez eventually mounted. In some ways, Albies was reminiscent of an even younger Baez, with his all-out style of play and flair for the spectacular on defense. Beyond the flash, early on he flat-out raked. On May 22, Albies' .394 wOBA ranked 22nd in baseball. He fell off badly down the stretch, with a .606 OPS in August and .656 in September, even as the Braves secured their first NL East crown since 2013.
Like Baez, Albies is often an overaggressive hitter who shows a rather nasty platoon split at this early juncture of his career. Last season, he hit .335 with a .905 OPS against lefties, but just .231 with a .696 OPS against righties. He's a switch-hitter, and his progress from the left side of the plate will be key to his continued ascension as a future All-Star. The projection systems tout a disparate range of infielders from Francisco Lindor to Rougned Odor. Albies needs to hone his approach to be more like the former than the latter.
Brian Dozier, Washington Nationals
Position rank: 8
hWAR: 2.39
Dozier was drafted by the Twins in 2009, and until last season's July 31 trade deadline, that was the only organization he'd known. But then he was sent to the super-deep Dodgers to be another cog in that division-title machine. It did not work out; Dozier hit just .182 for the Dodgers and .215 overall, with poor defensive metrics to boot. His patience and pop off the bat remained intact and, surprisingly, you can't point to a lack of contact for Dozier's troubles. His strikeout rate (19.4 percent) was actually his lowest since 2014.
The culprit was a sinking BABIP (.240 and just .196 for L.A.). The good news is that Dozier's hard-hit rate was better than ever. He seems like an excellent bounce-back candidate. Dozier ended up playing a bit role during L.A.'s postseason run. After signing with the Nationals over the winter, Dozier is now on his third organization in less than a year. His ranking is driven by projections still riding the sails of the 76 homers Dozier hit over the 2016 and 2017 seasons, but also seems realistic given the source of his 2018 travails.
DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees
Position rank: 9
hWAR: 2.34
At some point, LeMahieu's days as an everyday second baseman seem numbered. If Tulowitzki proves healthy, it might happen in spring training. Otherwise, it figures to happen when Gregorius returns. Either way, LeMahieu will be an important piece for the Yankees in what ultimately figures to be a super-utility role. At the very least, the three-time Gold Glover's defense will be crucial in an infield that struggled in that area last season.
LeMahieu's numbers tumbled badly in his final season with Colorado, though he spent three different stints in the disabled list (now the injury list) with, in order: a strained hamstring, a sprained thumb and a strained oblique. It was a tough season. Beyond getting healthy, LeMahieu has to prove that he can hit away from Coors Field. For his career, he has a .835 home OPS against .673 on the road.
[h=2]TIER IV: SECOND-DIVISION REGULAR[/h]Jonathan Schoop, Minnesota Twins
Position rank: 10
hWAR: 2.26
Like Dozier, Schoop left the only organization he'd played for and became a prized in-season pickup for a contender, landing with the Brewers at the July deadline. And like Dozier, he struggled. Schoop hit .202/.246/.311 in 46 games for Milwaukee, then went 0-for-8 during the postseason. Finally -- like Dozier -- he finds himself in the top 10 of his position because of what he did in previous seasons. Ironically, he'll try to justify those forecasts in Dozier's ex-gig as the everyday second baseman in Minnesota.
Schoop's troubles were harder to explain than Dozier's were. He struck out more and walked less. His power bat was still there in Baltimore, but didn't follow him to Milwaukee. The Brewers couldn't explain it. Milwaukee has had tremendous success with improving players coming in from other organizations, but with Schoop, it just didn't work out. Schoop did post above-average numbers in defensive runs saved but even in that, he committed seven errors after moving to the Brewers, posting a .934 fielding percentage. It just wasn't his year. However, Schoop is just 27 years old, so he still has a couple of prime seasons to rebound from his down year.
OTHER TIER IV: 11. Jurickson Profar, Oakland Athletics (2.26 hWAR); 12. Cesar Hernandez, Philadelphia Phillies (2.23 hWAR); 13. Scooter Gennett, Cincinnati Reds (2.08 hWAR); 14. Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox (2.04 hWAR); 15. Wilmer Flores, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.98 hWAR); 16. Adam Frazier, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.91 hWAR); 17. Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers(1.89 hWAR); 18. Kolten Wong, St. Louis Cardinals (1.88 hWAR); 19. Joey Wendle, Tampa Bay Rays (1.72 hWAR); 20. Joe Panik, San Francisco Giants(1.71 hWAR; 21. Enrique Hernandez, Dodgers (1.66 hWAR); 22. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox (1.56 hWAR); 23. Luis Urias, San Diego Padres (1.56 hWAR); 24. Starlin Castro, Miami Marlins (1.49 hWAR)
This is deep tier of very good players and features a number of rising players, like Moncada, Odor, Wendle and Urias. If defense were the only criteria, Wong might be Tier I, but his bat keeps him firmly in this class. The hoping-for-health bounce-back candidates are Panik and, obviously, Pedroia. You don't have to be a Red Sox fan to hope for a full season from one of the game's greats. According to FanGraphs, Pedroia ranks third among active second basemen with 46.6 career fWAR, behind Cano (56.3) and Ian Kinsler (47.7).
The player to watch here is Profar, who finally logged a full season after getting shuffled about by the Rangers for years. He's in a virtual dead heat with Schoop, falling short by a decimal point not displayed here. He responded with a .254/.335/.458 season with 20 homers and 10 stolen bases. He played only 10 games at second base but that's the position he's primed to play in Oakland after the departure of Jed Lowrie. Profar debuted in the majors in 2012 but will be only 26 when the 2019 season begins. I'm excited to see how he responds to some new voices.
TOP FROM TIER V: 25. Jonathan Villar, Baltimore Orioles; 26. Neil Walker, Marlins; 27. Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies; 28. Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians; 29. Ian Kinsler, Padres; 30. Dee Gordon, Mariners.
I don't have much to say about this group, so I'll just drop a note about McMahon, the youngest of the group. He enters camp in a three-way battle to replace LeMahieu in Colorado, along with utility player Garrett Hampson and top prospect Brendan Rodgers. The best things McMahon has going for him right now are versatility -- he was slated to be the Rockies' regular at first base at this time last season -- and patience. He's walked in 9.3 percent of his plate appearances as a professional. Because of that and because he's left-handed, Joey Votto shows up on his list of comparables in both PECOTA and the Davenport projections. No pressure, kid.
