MLB High Risk Favourites Picks Thread

cosmokram3r · May 3, 2006

System #1 (MLB High Risk Favourites) is 0-0 YTD

System #1: MLB High Risk Favourites
Recorded as of 7th April 2006 - 2nd May 2006
YTD: 21-18 (54%)
Even though its only at 54%, think of these bets as underdogs. -2.5 ATS in MLB Pays out HUGE! Eg. The ML on NY Mets tomorrow would get you odds of 1.333, while -2.5 will get you nice odds of 2.31. In most games the underdog's dont even get odds that high.

Should be able to post new picks daily, if not i will post results of picks i wouldve done but they wont be added to my overall record, just for the fun of it.

cosmokram3r · May 3, 2006

3/5:
1* -2.5 NY Mets (2.31)

cosmokram3r · May 4, 2006

YTD: 0-1 (-1 Unit)

4/5
1* -2.5 NY Mets (2.69)
2* -2.5 NY Yankees (2.12) [Yankee's with alot of Juice over -200 are 6-1 at -2.5 ATS!. When they are big favourites, alot of the time they win by big amounts, Hence the 2 unit play on their games]

cosmokram3r · May 4, 2006

5/5
1* -2.5 Boston (2.48)
2* -2.5 Chi White Sox (2.41) [They own Kansas City!]

BETNOMORE · May 4, 2006

cosmokram3r said:
5/5
1* -2.5 Boston (2.48)
2* -2.5 Chi White Sox (2.41) [They own Kansas City!]

LOVE THE WHITE SOX PLAY WITH GARLAND PITCHIN IT WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE 1-2 RUNS FOR KC IF THAT

Roxygurl · May 4, 2006

cosmokram3r said:
YTD: 0-1 (-1 Unit)

4/5
1* -2.5 NY Mets (2.69)
2* -2.5 NY Yankees (2.12) [Yankee's with alot of Juice over -200 are 6-1 at -2.5 ATS!. When they are big favourites, alot of the time they win by big amounts, Hence the 2 unit play on their games]

i have to thank you for this! i bet the yankees-2.5 right after reading your thread early this morning and put quite a bit on it and hot damn we rocked!i will remember this fact cuz now the yankees are 7-1 with juice over -200 and thats pretty dominating.thaaank youuuuuuu:money8: :103631605

arty:

cosmokram3r · May 5, 2006

No problem Roxygurl! NY Yankees covered very well

Today 2-0 (+3.93 Units)
YTD: 2-1 (+2.93 Units

1 Unit plays are 1-1 (+0.69 Units)
2 Unit plays are 1-0 (+2.24 Units)

Plays for the 5th already posted above.

roach23 · May 5, 2006

cosmokram3r said:
YTD: 0-1 (-1 Unit)

4/5
1* -2.5 NY Mets (2.69)
2* -2.5 NY Yankees (2.12) [Yankee's with alot of Juice over -200 are 6-1 at -2.5 ATS!. When they are big favourites, alot of the time they win by big amounts, Hence the 2 unit play on their games]

Hey Cosmo..

Question about this stat that you brought up...have the Yankees won every game they were a -200 fav? And are 7-1 on the -2.5 RL? Or are they 7-1 on the -2.5 when they win?

quantumleap · May 5, 2006

cosmo:

This would be a good study to do with those teams with a large average margin of victory. Does anyone know where I can get "average margin of victory" stat?

cosmokram3r · May 5, 2006

As for my 2* Chi White Sox play, here are some nice facts!

CWS are 4-0 ATS -2.5 this season as big favourites! 3-0 Against Kansas City! When Garland last played against KC they won 4-1

KC's pitcher Elarton, has lost 6 games in a row. 1 was against CWS where they lost 0-4

Chi White Sox will crush KC!

cosmokram3r · May 5, 2006

roach23: Yes NY Yankees have won 7-1 on the -2.5 RL as big favourites and also 7-1 on the ML as big favourites.

quantumleap: yeah that would be a great if u could find a website with those stats

CaptainCarl · May 5, 2006

I agree. I think there is huge value in some of the -2.5 lines and even the alternate run lines -1.5. Hit big on Min -2.5, +240 and Det -2.5, +140 on Tuesday. If you can average +200, you only need to hit 1 of 3 to break even.

cosmokram3r · May 5, 2006

Captain Carl: Thats how i think of it

Even a 45% overall for the season would still get you in profit. And for games where NY Yankees are playing and teams are big favorites against Kansas City its worth it to put an extra unit

cosmokram3r · May 5, 2006

6/5
1* -2.5 Oakland (2.74)
2* -2.5 Chi White Sox (2.45)

cosmokram3r · May 6, 2006

Today 1-1 (-0.57 Units)
YTD: 3-2 (+2.36 Units)

1 Unit plays are 2-1 (+3.12 Units)
2 Unit plays are 1-1 (+0.24 Units)

My picks for 6/5 are posted above.

cosmokram3r · May 6, 2006

Today 1-1 (+1.9 Units)
YTD: 4-3 (+4.26 Units)

1 Unit plays are 2-2 (+2.12 Units)
2 Unit plays are 2-1 (+2.14 Units)

7/5
2* -2.5 Chi White Sox (2.27)

Roxygurl · May 6, 2006

cosmokram3r said:
Today 1-1 (+1.9 Units)
YTD: 4-3 (+4.26 Units)

1 Unit plays are 2-2 (+2.12 Units)
2 Unit plays are 2-1 (+2.14 Units)

7/5
2* -2.5 Chi White Sox (2.27)

boooyaaa baby! im 2-0 following your wisdom:money8: :dancefool

cosmokram3r · May 6, 2006

Easy money Roxygurl

4-3 and already +4.26 Units! I didnt think Chi White Sox were gonna slip up today like they did yesturday, and i expect them to rip KC again tomorrow

cosmokram3r · May 7, 2006

This is Chi White Sox's last game against KC. I dont see them going out 1-2. After they gave away that first game in the Top of the 9th (KC got lucky), but then took their revenge and gave them a hiding, i think CWS will stomp KC in this last game to give them something to remember

Any team against KC i love! But CWS really stick it to them when they play. This is why i like my 2* play for today

CWS are 5-1 ATS -2.5. Hopefully i make you a winner if you choose to follow my play!

Good luck all

fosho · May 7, 2006

KC playing with an over extended bullpen and can't see them keeping this close. I was going to take the adjusted line but had to pull back a bit and go with the run line and the over for this game. GL