Mlb daily dose for 5/10/13

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THE HOMEDOGS MLB DAILY DOSE for 5/10/13
From: THE HOMEDOGS
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THE HOMEDOGS HOMEDOG OF THE DAY = MINNESOTA

THE GHOST TOP RATED PLAY OF THE DAY= MILWAUKEE

BIG BIY’S TOP RATED PLAY OF THE DAY= NY YANKEES

THE WALRUS TOP PLAY OF THE DAY= TEXAS

THE HOMEDOGS TOP TOTALS OF THE DAY = CUB/ WASH UNDER

HOMEDOGS.COM PLAYS ARE RATED ON A SCALE WITH AN “A+” BEING OUR TOP RATED SELECTION, THEN “A”, AND “B+”. WE RATE OUR TOTALS USING A 1*,2*, OR 3* WITH A 3* BEING OUR TOP RATED TOTAL.


Chi Cubs (Samardizija) @ Washington (Detwiler-L)----The Nats are on a 4 game winning streak and will be looking to make it 5 today. They are 7-1 their L8 when playing @ home vs. the Cubs , but have had trouble giving Detwiler the needed run support as they have lost his past 3 starts. The ‘UNDER’ is 4-1-1 combined the L3 Samardzija/Detwiler starts and these 2 pitched against each other LY on 9/03/12 with Wash. Winning 2-1. Samardzija went 7 innings in that start scattering 7 hits and 1 ER with 8 K’s. In his one other start vs. the Nats, he went for 8. 2 IP giving up 4 hits and 3 ER with 0BB and 8 K’s as the Cubs won that game 4-3. Detwiler is 2-1 career vs. the Cubs (17.1 IP, 15 hits, 5ER, 5BB, and 9 K’s. The Cubs finally have found a reliable closer in Kevin Gregg and they will work Samrdzija deep in this one and call on Gregg to finish up if things go according to planned. Zimmerman and Bryce Harper are a combined 0-14 vs. the Cubs right-hander and we will call for this one to finish in the 3-2 range. ------2*[Under]

Cleveland (Kuber) @ Detroit (Scherzer)------The Indians have won 10 of 11 now and they are catching a big # tonight. That’s because they are playing the Tigers who have won 9 of their L12 (Lost Last 2) and have Scherzer on the mound who is 4-0 TY with a 3.43 ERA. Scherzer is looking to go 5-0 tonight, but he might have to wait until his next start. Scherzer faced the Indians three times LY and went 1-1. Two of those outings were miserable. (9.1 IP, 17 hits, 12 Runs, 4 BB, and 11 K’s.) . This guy Kluber has looked good so far TY going 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA. He made two starts vs. the Tigers LY and went 1-1 giving up 6 Runs in 11 IP combined. These are the two highest scoring teams in the AL, so if you like it “OVER’, then you are making the right play. They are avg. 11.3 RPG combined which is 2.5 runs over the posted total of 8.5 in this one. Cleveland has the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] Best record in the Majors since 2009 in 1 run games. These Indians are sizzling and talk about getting some bang for your buck tonight….we will take the hot team with the run tonight.------“B+”[Cleveland +1.5]

Milwaukee (Gallardo) @ Cincinnati (Cingrani-L)------The Reds are 13-6 @ home and are 14-9 as a favorite TY. This rookie Cingrani will put his 2.63 ERA on the line tonight. But guess why he has a 2.63 ERA?? Sure, the youngster is no slouch, but his 4 starts have been vs. Miami,Wash, and the Cubs (x2). He has a nice K/BB ratio at 33/ 5 but we know the Marlins and the Cubs can’t hit the Ball. The Brew Crew is hitting .289 vs. lefties TY and they have a powerful line-up since getting 3B Ramirez (11-for-27 since coming of DL). Gallardo is a quality pitcher that has been sharp since his opening day debacle.The man got a DUI , and since appears to have sober up ( at least on Game Day). He has held his own L5 starts vs. the Reds ( 29.2 IP, 25 Hits, 10 ER, and 31 K’s for a 3-2 record). This is the opening road game for the Brewers has they begin a 10 game divisional trip as they will face STL and Pitt next. This first game is important for the Brew Crew to get off to a good start and they have a vet on the mound that should be able to pitch a quality game. Look for Cingrani to have a hard time pitching around Gomez, Braun, and Ramirez. -------“A”[Milwaukee]

Pittsburgh (Rodriguez-L) @ NY Mets (Marcum)------The “OVER’ is 5-1 combined in these pitcher L3 starts. The Mets are 20-10 -1 ‘OVER’ TY and the ‘OVER’ is 8-1 L9 Pirate road games. (went under last night). Marcum made 2 strong starts vs. the Pirates LY when he pitched for Milw, but this guy has been less than impressive TY, not going past the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] inning in his 2 starts and giving up the Lead in a bullpen appearance (7.20 ERA). Rodriguez his 3-0 his L3 starts vs. the Mets just giving up 5 ER in 20 IP. This game opened up at a PK, then quickly moved to the Pirates being the Favorite, mainly being because of Marcum’s troubles. With both teams trending over and neither pitcher in top-notch form, we will just play this one---[Over]

San Diego (Volquez) @ Tampa Bay ( Cobb)-----The Padres are coming into this game winning 4 straight ( swept Marlins) and are 6-1 their L7. They will need to bring more Bats with them tonight than they did when playing the Marlins. The Rays bats are in a groove and they are 10-6 @ home TY and 13-9 as a fav. The Padres are 6-10 away from home TY and only 11-15 as a dog. Volquez has started to turn his season around going 3-0 L3 starts with a 2.49 ERA after disaterous start to begin the year. Cobb has bee one of the Rays dependable pitchers TY (4-2, 2.79 ERA) and we look for the Rays offense to give him a big enough lead tonight that this SHAKY bullpen can’t even blow.-------[Tampa Bay]

Toronto (Ortiz) @ Boston (Lester-L)------The soon to be 40 year old Ortiz is making his first start in the Majors since 2011 as he is filling in for Morrow. Toronto is -$1251 TY on the money line, 6-13 as a dog, and 3-7 vs. lefties. To make it worse, they are facing Lester ( a lefty) who is undefeated at 4-0. Lester got roughed up on 4/30 vs. Toronto ( 5 Runs on 6 hits in 6 IP) and that is a slight concern and the fact that the Red Sox are only 1-6 their L7 games. Lester did make one other start vs. Toronto on 4/07 TY and gave up 0 Runs in 6 IP, so he is capable of throwing a good game vs. these Bluejays. The Red Sox have taken 4 of 6 vs. Toronto TY and this is a simple play on taking the team with the MUCH better quality pitcher with a winning record vs. a losing team that has struggled to hit the ball and get quality outings from their pitchers. Welcome back to the Big Leagues, Mr. Ortiz. We have you lasting 4 or 5 innings before you get pulled. Lester goes to 5-0 after tonight.------[Red Sox]

LA Angels ( Undecided) @ Chi White Sox (Axelrod) -----Hanson is missing this start and the Angels have to figure out who to call up to fill in. Axelrod has been sharp TY as he has allowed 3 runs or fewer is 5 of his 6 starts, but these offensively challenged Bats of the White Sox have not given him enough run support for him to get a win ( 0-2, 3.60 ERA) Axelrod has a 2.04 ERA TY @ home and while we don’t know who is pitching for the Angels, we don’t care. They suck and ain’t now way, we can make a play on them. This more of a ‘play against’ the Angels than it is a ‘play on’ the White Sox, and with the Angels -$1495 TY on the money line, we will take the home team as Axelrod gets his first win of the year.------[White Sox]

Baltimore (Hammel) @ Minnesota (Pelfrey) ------Hammel made a start on 4/07 vs. the Twins and lost as he gave up 4 runs in 6.2 IP ( 4-3 final) . He only gave up 4 hits but had 3 BB’s which contributed to the loss. Luckily for Hamell he is #2 in the AL in run support at 6.83 RPG and that has helped him get his 5-1 record as his 4.10 ERA is sub-par. He is not striking guys out and is issuing to many free passes for us to count on him in this one. Pelfrey finally pitched a good game last start vs. the Indians( only pitcher to beat Clev. In their L11 games). Maybe that is a good sign for this guy. The Twins just took 3 straight vs. Boston and are now catching money at the crib, where they have been a reliable home dog all year long. Easy choice today.-----“B+”[ Minnesota]

NY Yankees ( Hughes) @ Kansas City ( Davis)------Hughes has been looking sharp as late and his making a push to be the teams #2 starter . They Yankees have won his L3 starts and Hughes is coming off his best start of the year ( 4 hits, 0 Runs, 9 K’s vs. Oakland). Hughes went 2-0 LY vs. Kansas City and his 4-0 his L4 starts vs. the Royals and hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in his L5 starts vs. K.C who is last in the AL in hitting homeruns TY. Hughes hasn’t given up more than 2 runs in his L4 starts now and these Yankee bats should be able to manufacture just enough runs to give him the 4-2 win tonight. Davis has given up 43 hits TY in 30 IP and is way too inconsistent. ------“A”[Yankees]

Texas (Ogando) @ Houston ( Keuchel-L)-----Who is this guy pitching for the Astros? Keuchel will be making his first start of they year as he has been coming out the bullpen TY. The lefty went 3-8 with a 5.27 ERA LY as a starter for the Astros LY, so that makes sense they put him in the bullpen. Berkman, Kinsler, Murphy,Cruz, and Andrus all have good #’s when playing the Astros ( then again, who doesn’t?) . The Rangers are 12-3 L15 games @ Houston and got the 4-0 win in Ogando’s start on 4/03. ( 6 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, and 10 K’s.) We don’t smell anything funny in the air in this one and everything should go according to planned. ------“A+”[Texas]

Colorado ( Garland) @ Saint Louis ( Miller) -----STL is 7-1 their L8 games. The one loss was 2-1 vs. the Cubs where they tend to struggle @ the plate vs. lefties. Tonight, they are facing a Rockies who they have beaten 9 of the L11 when playing in STL. Saint Louis starter’s have a MLB best ERA at 2.29 and Miller has helped with his 1.96 ERA. Garland has been decent TY, but he still can’t go past 5 or 6 innings. Colorado is better at home also. They are only 8-8 TY on the road and Molina is 7-for-9 career vs. Garland. ------[Saint Louis]

Philly (Cloyd) @ Arizona ( Kennedy) ------ Kennedy is now 1-7 his last 8 team starts in May, including 0-3 his L3 @ home. He has given up 9 runs over his last 2 starts and has a 5.19 ERA . This guy has given up 17 BB’s to 33 K’s and has gotten roughed up his last two home starts ( 6 runs vs LAD, and 4 runs vs. SFran). Cloyd is making the start for Halladay. ( Thank goodness). Cloyd made 6 starts LY going 2-2 ( 30K, 7 BB in 33 IP). We wish these Philly Bats were a bit more dependable and we would be all over the ‘dog’ in this one. They let us down last night as they has bases loaded w/ one out in the 8[SUP]th[/SUP] and couldn’t make any noise. This looks like a potential game for Kennedy to get back under control . He is 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA career vs. the Phillies and this looks to be a good play on the ----[Under]

Miami (Fernandez) @ LA Dodgers ( Magill) ------The Dodgers have lost 7 straight and have Magill on the mound who just got touched for 5 runs on 6 hits in 1.1 IP last start. Maybe something isn’t right with this guy but the Dodgers don’t have a backup plan with all the other pitcher on the DL. The Dodgers starting 2B,3B, and SS are on the DL. 1B Gozalez is ? along with LF Crawford and they are still laying money to our ‘go-getter’ Fernandez?? Fernandez is coming off a solid 7 inning ,1 hit, 0 ER performance vs. Philly and should be able to put together another stellar outing tonight vs. the other team in LA that is no good. We feel the Marlins will score enough off Magil to give Fernandez a 2 run cushion and the bullpen should close it on out. ------[Miami]

Oakland ( Straily) @ Seattle ( Iwakuma) ------The A’s have 3 outfielders on the DL including Coco Crisp and Reddick. They just got swept and now are facing Iwakuma who pitched a gem on 4/02 vs. them. He tossed 6 innings of 2 hit ball on only 1 run while fanning 7. The M’s won 7-1. Iwakuma has 1.61 ERA TY and he has only allowed more than 1 run in 2 starts TY ( 3 ER or fewer in all starts) . Straily had problems with his control last start and it looks like his first start TY when he had 13 K’s vs. the Astros was only because he was pitching vs. the ‘Astros’. HEY ‘KING FELIX’, give Iwakuma some of that 175 million you just got because this guy is taking over the #1 spot. Is it too early for CY Young discussions? The A’s outfielders are on the DL, they are riding a 4 game losing streak , they are still on the road, and they are facing the AL’s best pitcher right now.--------“B+”[Seattle]

Atlanta ( Hudson) @ San Fran ( Cain) ------The Braves are 10-4 as a dog this year. Give them some money and they are going to put it in your pocket. Hudson’s L3 starts have gone ‘OVER’ and Cain’s L3 starts are 2-0-1 . The Braves are on a 5-0 ‘OVER’ run and their L5 road games are a perfect 5-0 ‘OVER’ as well. 6 of the L7 have also gone ‘OVER’ when playing @ San Fran. Hudson is 8-4 L10 years vs. the Giants with a 3.17 ERA and his 3-0 (2 ND’s) his L5 starts. He has pitched 7+ innings in those 5 starts (38 IP) and only gave up 7 ER total. The Braves have the better bats and we feel currently this pitching matchup is even. Cain says he is fine, but we beg to differ. He looked good vs. the Dodgers, but everybody looks good vs. the Dodgers. Lets see what he does when he faces these big bat Braves tonight. Cain has been sharp though in the past vs the Braves going 3-1 his L5 starts with 4 of those starts he allowed 1 run or fewer. Until Cain puts together B2B starts, we will take these Braves and their 10-4 mark as a dog TY. -----[Atlanta]

All of TheHomedogs predictions are based on the money line unless otherwise stated.
All pitchers are listed as probables.
Legend: W= win, L= loss, TY= this year, LY= last year, ERA= earned run average, ERA= earned run average, , K= strikeouts, ND = no decision, HR= homerun, IF = infield, OF= outfiled, LTO = last time out, INN = innings, IP= innings pitched, L2 = last2, L5= last 5, L10= last 10


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