MisterMJ NFL & System Plays

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I'm not a huge fan of wagering on NFL Preseason football but I do think that you can find certain spots that are worth an educated guess or two. I'd advise being careful and treating it as a small entertainment wager to get geared up for the regular season, if you decide to wager.


I like Green Bay -7 tonight at home vs. the Oakland Raiders. 8:00 PM ET on CBS

Even after they bench Aaron Rodgers and the starters the Packers have two capable QB's that are truly locked in a battle for probably one spot. Flynn and Tolzien will still have Green Bays very deep skill positons to play with (6 deep or more with quality WR's and 2nd and 3rd RB's are talented as well... and the emphasis will still be to keep the foot on the gas in my opinion. Green Bay is really emphasizing the up tempo offense this season and it's all about getting this mindset into everybody's head...the only way to do that is to actually do it on the field and this will be Green Bay's dress rehearsal.

Barring injury this team is shaping up as an absolute offensive juggernaut, up tempo, playing fast and balanced to drive defenses crazy.

WR 3 Boykin is worth a late round gamble in fantasy by the way. A sleeper that could end up scoring 6-8 TD's this year in my opinion. He's experienced enough now to take advantage of defenses rolling coverage toward Jordy Nelson and Cobb. You would think in an offense like this even the crumbs might end up being pretty good.

Starters will not play next week because of the Thursday night NFL Opener at Seattle the following week.

GB's defense is still a question mark as they play vanillla in preseason and it's really hard to guage how good they are. That is a risk but I don't think the Raiders are deep enough or good enough to matter. I could be wrong though if GB still has a very soft pass and or run defense.


Lastly, it's a preseason game...who knows what could happen? It's a risk. I could be right about all of the above but some poor decisions by back up players could still give the Raiders a way to win or back door cover in the 4th quarter.


I still think it's well worth the risk on this one. Green Bay covers the -7.

Its nationally broadcast on CBS tonight. One more reason for the better teams players to show off a little bit, can't hurt.

If you agree and play it...good luck to us.
:toast:

MJ






 

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Once again I like Green Bay tonight , mostly because of quality depth at the skill positions. Keep in mind NFL Preseason is just an educated guess, keep the wager small if you are going to play it.

The Packers and Chiefs will both rest their starters. This leaves the Packers with two quality experienced QB back ups who have better than average experience and history to work from as both were on the team last season and both had to start with the Aaron Rodgers injury for 8 games.


It's as good as angle as anything else out there...Packers are at home...and also have quality depth on the back end of the defense.


The Chiefs will start a quality back up QB for one quarter, but after that it drops off considerably and a rookie QB will probably play the whole 4th Quarter.


Advantage Packers.


The spread has moved to -4 at most books but that wouldn't scare me away. Just remember, this is Preseason, and it's practice for us too. Keep it small as a warm up to regular season.


We are 1-0 ATS in the Preseason taking the Packers win last week for much of the same reasons as this week.


The pick and more info included below.


Good luck
MJ
---

NFL Preseason Football


Thursday, August 28


Kansas City - 7:00 PM ET Green Bay -3.5
Green Bay



1-0 100%
 

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NFL Week # 1 Pick

Week # 1 is hard because we don't have any stats to use yet and we haven't had a chance to see any teams play real games. Any picks in week # 1 are educated guesses.

I think you should play these week # 1 picks smaller than normal, as half wagers for example. I like the pick, but we must keep in mind that we are guessing, rather than using actual performance statistics to make the picks.

Monday, September 8



N.Y. Giants - 7:10 PM ET Detroit -6.5
Detroit



We have the new coach value angle in week # 1. The other reason for picking Detroit is my own opinion. The QB for the NY Giants, Eli Manning has just not looked comfortable this preseason. They are running a new offense and it's going to take time. Detroit on the other hand looks ready to go and a Monday night game at home is going to be a very hard thing for the NY Giants to over come. I could be wrong, but I think there is a good chance this is a big offensive mismatch, for less than a touch down (-7) point spread.
 

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Looks like today, money is coming in on NY Giants, maybe because of the success of under dogs yesterday.

Right or wrong, I'm sticking to my first thoughts on this one.
 

Dain Bramaged
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I hit Detroit when line came out and plan on a nice Alt spread play right b4 kick. Giants are in a world of trouble. I have been a fan as long as I can remember and this downward spiral isn't going to be pretty. Dog success is no reason to back them tonight. Stick to your guns :toast:
 

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3-0 with Preseason and week # 1 NFL. :103631605

I'll be switching gears and playing some situational system plays, and then performance stat system plays going forward the rest of the season.
 

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Minnesota might have "EMO" today, it's come up in a wide range of trends and situationals.

My own system has them as well. Red lights flashing...it's a play.

NFL EMO System ( Plays on or against motivational factors looking for over and under performance. These picks are often contrarian and hard to play based on current public perception. Hold your nose and play them.)


Sunday, September 21

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +10 500
New Orleans -




2014 EMO Record 1-*0-*0 100.00% +*$500 ($500 = 1 unit for record keeping purposes only)

Daily pick record for 09/14/2014


NFL Seattle 21 San Diego +5.5 500 WON +500
San Diego 30

(2007-2013 Record 112-83 57.43% ATS)
 

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