Mistaflava's 2019 NFL Record: 35-19-3 ATS (+160.00 Units)
Mistaflava's 2019 NFL *BIG PLAYS*: 6-3-1 ATS (+40.00 Units)
Coming off the 10-1 ATS Week in Week 4, a step back had to be expected and a mini step back it was as I finished 7-5-1 ATS and lost 24 units due to my big plays on the Chiefs losing. Not a problem. Moving on. Still 17-6-1 ATS the last two weeks in NFL betting.
Wishing everyone a profitable week, let's make some money!
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Thursday, October 10
New York Giants +17 (10 Units)
The New York Giants are decimated to the core as RB Saquon Barkely, WR Sterling Shepard, RB Wayne Gallman Jr and TE Evan Engram have all been deemed out against the #1 ranked Total yards, Passing and Points allowed defense in the NFL the New England Patriots. Not good right? Well no to fast. This is rookie sensation QB Daniel Jones first game on National Television and given the circumstances of all these players being out, I'm not sure how much prepping the New England Patriots have actually done or are they just going to wing it? I'm going with the latter. The Giants were awful last Sunday at home against the Vikings in a game where they were outyarded by a massive total of 279 total yards of offense. Although it's easy to assume they will do exactly the same thing tonight and be outyarded by 200+ total yards, that doesn't mean they will lose by 17. Their three losses this season have all been by less than 20 points. Despite all the injuries, which has been an issue for weeks now, the Giants still average 22.0 points per game in their last three games and 5.4 yards per play. The Patriots are allowing only 10.3 points per game but also allowing 233.3 total yards of offense and 4.5 yards per play in their last three games. They're good. Rookie RB Jon Hilliman gets the call but I don't see him being a factor even if the Patriots allow 5.1 yards per carry in their last three games. I do however see Daniel Jones being an issue for the Pats on the ground if they aren't ready. He is averaging 6.0 yards per carry this season and has rushed for 2 touchdowns on the ground. In the air his numbers aren't great and protection has been a major issue so I expect the gameplan to include a lot of running and short quick passes. New England has 16 sacks in their last three games, 6 interceptions in those games and 1 fumble recovery. They are not to be messed around with. What I do like about the Giants apart from Jones and his ability to run the ball if he needs to is that they have converted 52.4% of their third down chances their last three games. That's massive against the Patriots #1 ranked 3rd down defense in the NFL because if they can convert a few early and put some points on the board they can probably catch the Patriots sleeping a bit.
The New England Patriots come into this game business as usual coming off a big spread covering win at Washington last Sunday in a game where it looked like they didn't really care until they finally started playing in the second half and ran away with things. So if the Patriots were lackluster to start that game how do you think they will feel about playing against the beat up Giants on a Thursday Night only four days later? I assume they are mediocre again. I think I've been on every Patriots game so far this season and have gone 4-1 ATS with the Steelers game being the only one I got wrong. I remember that if you're going to bet against them on the spread you better make sure their opponent has a defense that can make plays. The Bills had a defense that could make plays and the Jets single handily covered the spread with their defensive and special teams touchdowns. Well the Giants are one of those teams. In their last three games their defense has allowed 20.7 points per game on 388.3 total yards of offense and 6.7 yards per play which seems like a lot. However, that same defense has recorded 10 sacks, 5 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery in their last three games. THEY MAKE PLAYS just like the Jets did and just like the Bills did. As a matter of fact check these numbers out for the Giants. Opponents are converting 3rd downs only 30.6% of the time on third downs the last three games and opponents are scoring touchdowns only 27.3% of the time once in the Red Zone against this group. Impressive stuff. Two areas of weakness for the Patriots have been 3rd downs (33.3% in their last three games, bottom half of the league) and in the Red Zone (scoring touchdowns only 53.8% of the time in their last three games). QB Tom Brady has a QB Rating of only 80.7 in his last three games and although the Giants D is allowing some massive plays (4.9 yards per carry and 8.2 yards per pass attempt) their last three games, the Patriots will probably be a lot more interested in running the ball, extending drives, converting on 3rd downs and getting out of this Thursday Night clash without any injuries and with a simple W. We saw it in the Jets game. They almost didn't care but did enough to win the game. Once they had the lead they just sat back on it, settled for Field Goals (The Giants have forced an NFL Leading 10 FG attempts the last three games). I like the Giants defense to keep this one close tonight and I don't expect Bill Bellichik to be going crazy with big plays.
The times have changed and the rosters have changed but it's hard to ignore the fact that the Giants have covered the spread in 5 straight games versus the Patriots (including the Super Bowl in 2008) and have covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 meetings going back to 1996. The Giants are coming off a big loss at home but they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a double digit loss at home and they are an incredible 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games dating back to the 2018 season. The Giants are also 8-0 ATS in their last eight games coming off a game where they score less than 15 points in their previous game. This is typically the kind of game the Patriots win big and run away with early and keep pouring it on but would you believe that in their last three games they average only 2.3 points per 4th Quarter in those games? This team is satisfied with just winning. I think Daniel Jones will have a decent performance given the circumstances (injuries) in his first game on Primetime television (always an added bonus for young quarterbacks) and I think the Giants defense makes enough big plays that they can force some turnovers and make some stops tonight. Don't forget the Pats have turned the ball over 4 times in their last three games. I'm usually on the Pats for these big spread games but not tonight. Not with a young QB like Jones and not against a solid turnover generating defense like the Giants.
Trend of the Game: New York Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
New England 23, NY Giants 13
more to come...
Mistaflava's 2019 NFL *BIG PLAYS*: 6-3-1 ATS (+40.00 Units)
Coming off the 10-1 ATS Week in Week 4, a step back had to be expected and a mini step back it was as I finished 7-5-1 ATS and lost 24 units due to my big plays on the Chiefs losing. Not a problem. Moving on. Still 17-6-1 ATS the last two weeks in NFL betting.
Wishing everyone a profitable week, let's make some money!
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Thursday, October 10
New York Giants +17 (10 Units)
The New York Giants are decimated to the core as RB Saquon Barkely, WR Sterling Shepard, RB Wayne Gallman Jr and TE Evan Engram have all been deemed out against the #1 ranked Total yards, Passing and Points allowed defense in the NFL the New England Patriots. Not good right? Well no to fast. This is rookie sensation QB Daniel Jones first game on National Television and given the circumstances of all these players being out, I'm not sure how much prepping the New England Patriots have actually done or are they just going to wing it? I'm going with the latter. The Giants were awful last Sunday at home against the Vikings in a game where they were outyarded by a massive total of 279 total yards of offense. Although it's easy to assume they will do exactly the same thing tonight and be outyarded by 200+ total yards, that doesn't mean they will lose by 17. Their three losses this season have all been by less than 20 points. Despite all the injuries, which has been an issue for weeks now, the Giants still average 22.0 points per game in their last three games and 5.4 yards per play. The Patriots are allowing only 10.3 points per game but also allowing 233.3 total yards of offense and 4.5 yards per play in their last three games. They're good. Rookie RB Jon Hilliman gets the call but I don't see him being a factor even if the Patriots allow 5.1 yards per carry in their last three games. I do however see Daniel Jones being an issue for the Pats on the ground if they aren't ready. He is averaging 6.0 yards per carry this season and has rushed for 2 touchdowns on the ground. In the air his numbers aren't great and protection has been a major issue so I expect the gameplan to include a lot of running and short quick passes. New England has 16 sacks in their last three games, 6 interceptions in those games and 1 fumble recovery. They are not to be messed around with. What I do like about the Giants apart from Jones and his ability to run the ball if he needs to is that they have converted 52.4% of their third down chances their last three games. That's massive against the Patriots #1 ranked 3rd down defense in the NFL because if they can convert a few early and put some points on the board they can probably catch the Patriots sleeping a bit.
The New England Patriots come into this game business as usual coming off a big spread covering win at Washington last Sunday in a game where it looked like they didn't really care until they finally started playing in the second half and ran away with things. So if the Patriots were lackluster to start that game how do you think they will feel about playing against the beat up Giants on a Thursday Night only four days later? I assume they are mediocre again. I think I've been on every Patriots game so far this season and have gone 4-1 ATS with the Steelers game being the only one I got wrong. I remember that if you're going to bet against them on the spread you better make sure their opponent has a defense that can make plays. The Bills had a defense that could make plays and the Jets single handily covered the spread with their defensive and special teams touchdowns. Well the Giants are one of those teams. In their last three games their defense has allowed 20.7 points per game on 388.3 total yards of offense and 6.7 yards per play which seems like a lot. However, that same defense has recorded 10 sacks, 5 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery in their last three games. THEY MAKE PLAYS just like the Jets did and just like the Bills did. As a matter of fact check these numbers out for the Giants. Opponents are converting 3rd downs only 30.6% of the time on third downs the last three games and opponents are scoring touchdowns only 27.3% of the time once in the Red Zone against this group. Impressive stuff. Two areas of weakness for the Patriots have been 3rd downs (33.3% in their last three games, bottom half of the league) and in the Red Zone (scoring touchdowns only 53.8% of the time in their last three games). QB Tom Brady has a QB Rating of only 80.7 in his last three games and although the Giants D is allowing some massive plays (4.9 yards per carry and 8.2 yards per pass attempt) their last three games, the Patriots will probably be a lot more interested in running the ball, extending drives, converting on 3rd downs and getting out of this Thursday Night clash without any injuries and with a simple W. We saw it in the Jets game. They almost didn't care but did enough to win the game. Once they had the lead they just sat back on it, settled for Field Goals (The Giants have forced an NFL Leading 10 FG attempts the last three games). I like the Giants defense to keep this one close tonight and I don't expect Bill Bellichik to be going crazy with big plays.
The times have changed and the rosters have changed but it's hard to ignore the fact that the Giants have covered the spread in 5 straight games versus the Patriots (including the Super Bowl in 2008) and have covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 meetings going back to 1996. The Giants are coming off a big loss at home but they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a double digit loss at home and they are an incredible 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games dating back to the 2018 season. The Giants are also 8-0 ATS in their last eight games coming off a game where they score less than 15 points in their previous game. This is typically the kind of game the Patriots win big and run away with early and keep pouring it on but would you believe that in their last three games they average only 2.3 points per 4th Quarter in those games? This team is satisfied with just winning. I think Daniel Jones will have a decent performance given the circumstances (injuries) in his first game on Primetime television (always an added bonus for young quarterbacks) and I think the Giants defense makes enough big plays that they can force some turnovers and make some stops tonight. Don't forget the Pats have turned the ball over 4 times in their last three games. I'm usually on the Pats for these big spread games but not tonight. Not with a young QB like Jones and not against a solid turnover generating defense like the Giants.
Trend of the Game: New York Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
New England 23, NY Giants 13
more to come...
