MistaFlava's NFL Football Week 10 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2022 NFL Football ATS Record: 23-14-1ATS (+78.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2022 NFL Football ML Record: 0-2 (-27.00 Units)

I have not posted since Week 4 of the NFL Regular Season and have been quite busy working on different things but I'm back and hoping to have kind of re-charged the batteries a bit by sitting back and watching a ton of football and just enjoying it at both the NFL and College levels without any major wagers. It was much needed. Hoping for a big week.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEK!

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Thursday, November 10



Carolina Panthers +2.5 (10 Units)

Just a few weeks ago on the even of Halloween we were treated to one of the best football games of the NFL Season between these two teams and it came as a pretty big surprise to everyone. Both teams had so many chances to win the game both in regulation and in overtime but it seemed like nobody wanted to win. It should have ended on the incredible DJ Moore touchdown catch near the end of regulation but because he took his helmet off to celebrate the extra point was pushed back and the Panthers eventually missed the extra point. They also eventually lost in overtime and likely have not stopped thinking about this game ever since. Well here we are a couple of weeks later ready for Round 2. I see right away that 70% of the betting public (even more at some books) are on the Falcons to win this game because let's be honest they have been one of the surprises of the NFL season winning 4 of their last 6 games and they currently sit in a tie for first place in the NFC South. Having said that every team in the Division has a losing record so anything goes on any given night. Do I see a wild shootout like the 37-34 one we saw in their game a few weeks ago? Not really. Not this time. I see more of a slow game with both defenses actually much better than they did in that game and I could even see this turning into a Field Goal fest. The Panthers have so many question marks at quarterback with QB PJ Walker getting the start tonight and Baker Mayfield waiting in the balance to get the call like he did last week in a 42-21 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. That was a game where the Panthers showed little to no interest and looked like a team that had not recovered from the week before and likely were already looking ahead to this game. Now they get the Falcons at home in the re-match. One thing to keep in mind is that despite Atlanta winning that first meeting, the Panthers won the yardage battle by 72 total yards. Atlanta comes into this game 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on Thursday Night Football. I know they have dominated Carolina over the course of the last 4-5 seasons and the last 10 games or so but THE UNDERDOG IS 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams (finally not the Panthers) and like I mentioned before I think this game remains low scoring and I think the Panthers pull this off. Carolina Kicker Eddy Pineiro has been pretty good this season but it was his extra point miss and his overtime FG miss that cost the Panthers the game a few weeks ago and I think he gets redemption in a big way this week. Ugly game, people will say Thursday Night Football sucks like they do every week and Carolina finds a way to win on Field Goals. The betting public goes down hard in this one.

Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams.


Carolina 19, Atlanta 13

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava......hope all is well buddy.....good to see your post....
good luck with tonight's play........indy

 

[cruisin]

BOL flava

 

[carlitosway]

GL Flava!

 

[MAGAking1]

I knew I hadnt seen you around lately....always enjoy reading your writeups

 

[fadetheaction]

And the night is a bit brighter. Welcome back

 

[vinnyvegas]

Good to see u back Sir

 

[lakrfan2000]

Hey Flav, good to see you back, and congrats on the win.

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava...solid call buddy, thank you........indy

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...


Sunday, November 13


Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (10 Units)

GUTEN MORGEN TO YOU ALL! This sounds really crazy because technically the Seahawks should be the favorites in this game but it seems oddsmakers have yet to really adjust or even start to respect what Pete Caroll and his young team are doing this season and that's likely going to be a mistake. I've seen a whole new QB Tom Brady since that massive win over the Rams last week and yes it was a big win but was it enough to completely turn their season around? I don't know about that. Coach Pete has his team absolutely rocking right now at 6-3 on the season and QB Geno Smith, who is easily the comeback player of the year in the NFL right now, has looked like a TOP 5 quarterback and has adapted really well in this system. The key in this game for me is the fact that Seattle can run the ball and they are going up against the #23 ranked defense in the NFL of the Buccaneers. I know the Bucs offense loves to throw the ball and if you let him Brady will throw it 75 times and likely control the clock but if you have a running game like the Seahawks do you should be able to control things on the ground and keep him off the field. Seattle comes into this game on a nice 4-0 ATS run and although Pete Caroll teams have struggled in the past in November for whatever reason this team is also 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus NFC Conference opponents. Tampa Bay on the other hand have not covered a spread since Week 3 (depending on what lines you consider) and are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games. They are 0-3-1 ATS during that stretch versus NFC Conference opponents and have just not looked good or looked like the Bucs team we all expected to see this season. I am going with the Seahawks to continue to impress in what should be yet another really good International Game. They've all been great so far.

Trend of the Game: Seattle is 4-0 ATS in their last four games.


Seattle 17, Tampa Bay 15

 

[HacheMan]

Nice record & writeups Flava-Flav

 

[guju]

Nice record & writeups Flava-Flav

I am by no means trying to stir the pot and simply trying to clarify (and I could be wrong)... but I think the posted record above of 23-14 is not actual posted plays but rather some sort of retrofit of a "current system" and what the record would have been if that system was applied from the beginning.

 

[yankee34]

It is done all the time here. Nothing ever gets done.

 

[LuckysBoy]

I believe the record is correct, it includes all his preseason posts and writeups.This dude provides some of the BEST info on here and has always been Very transparent and picks a lot more winners, than losers.Thnak you Flava

 

[MistaFlava]

Horrendous call on Seattle. Bucs seem to be rolling on both ends of the ball now and getting quite a few beneficial calls along the way. Onto the next.


adding...


Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 (10 Units)

Going with Kansas City here coming off that mediocre performance on Sunday Night Football last week against what seems to be their spread kryptonite the Tennessee Titans. The Jaguars are coming off a big win over Las Vegas last weekend but that's not saying much and the Jags were 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS in their previous five games. Jacksonville is 1-7 ATS in their last eight Road Games and are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games coming off an ATS spread win. Kansas City was barely able to move the ball on the ground against the Titans defense but they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a game where they manage to run for less than 90 yards in their previous game. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams and I think Mahomes and this offense puts up big numbers in a huge bounce back spot (despite winning last game).

Trend of the Game: Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last five games after rushing for 90 yards or less in their previous game.


Kansas City 38, Jacksonville 17




Cleveland Browns +3 (10 Units)

I think this is the big trap game of the week. Why on earth would the Browns come into this Road Game as only three point underdogs? Well here is the deal. The Browns are coming off their BYE Week and should be well rested for this game. That's significant because Miami is coming off a game in Chicago where they basically went to war and their defense was torched by QB Justin Fields (his best pro game yet and maybe the best individual performance of the entire week last week) for 32 points. The issue with teams and beating Miami is that they can never run the ball effectively enough to keep the Dolphins offense off the field. Cleveland can do that and have the #3 rushing offense in the NFL. I think that factors into this one today. If you look at history you will see the Browns have won big road games like this in the past against good teams at home. Cleveland is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams. Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last six games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing record on the season. Not sure why so many are backing them. Browns for me.

Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams.


Cleveland 23, Miami 20




Minnesota Vikings +6 (10 Units)

Alright we have to call a spade a spade in this case here. QB Josh Allen is active but he was not on the field for pre-game warmups but word is he will still start. I am not taking any chances. The Bills could be playing some big time mind games where he starts early, hands the ball off, and then they turn to QB Case Keenum for the rest of the game. With the spread climbing all the way back up to +6 or more I am going to take the Vikings in this one. The Bills just aren't the same without Allen. Even if Allen is good to go he won't be 100% and I am positive they are going to be calling things pretty conservative with him hoping he doesn't aggrevate anything. This is going to sound like a weird stat but Minnesota is 8-1-1 ATS in their last nine games played on artificial turf and they are they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Road games versus a team with a winning record at home. The Bills are coming off that loss to the Jets last week and are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Minnesota is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games played in November and I'll take the Vikings with so much Josh Allen uncertainty.

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games played in November.


Minnesota 24, Buffalo 13




more to come...

 

[handicrapper]

Josh is starting.

Great reads....thank you

BOL