MistaFlava's 2009 College Football Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)
Welcome to my 2009 College Football Season. Last year did not go all that well but I had some big wins but I also had some big unit losses and this is a good time to recover. My best season was still the 2004 season where I made huge profits and I hope I can regain that magical touch of my last year posting at Covers.com before being banned for life.
Please keep in mind that these are all my plays, my writeups, my bullshit, my common sense...whatever you wanna call what I post. Some tout sites have used my writeups in the past but it's not authorized and I post everything first obviously. Enjoy the season and GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
Week 1: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)
Please also keep in mind that 1 Unit = $1000 for all my plays unless otherwise posted. I will try to post plays in early every week but with my move out of the Country it's going to be tough the next month or so please forgive the lateness of my plays.
Also stop being so obessed with my units. I bet what I want to bet and you can all use the units as a guideline to see how much I like a play. Money is money, some of us have it, some of us don't. Who cares as long as you are making your own money right?
LET'S MAKE SOME CASH!
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Thursday, September 3
South Carolina Gamecocks +5 (10 Units)
The South Carolina Gamecocks know what it's like to play NC State early in the season because they did it last year and they did it in style. The Gamecocks were 34-0 winners at home against this Wolfpack team and now they go on the road to see if they can do it again for a second year in a row. I mean a lot of guys are gone from last year like leading rusher RB Mike Davis, leading tackler Emanuel Cook and starting QB Chris Smelley. But the latter is actually a good thing and so is Davis being gone because despite experience, Davis averaged only 2.5 yards per carry per game in 2008. The team also loses their top two WR's from last season and that could be a big deal but I expect this more to be a tactical between the two teams and a much lower scoring game. You also have to expect QB Stephen Garcia to have a make or break opening game. Garcia is on his last straw with this team and this is his big chance to prove himself. He completed 53.3% of his passes last season for 832 passing yards, 6 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions and I think he can only get better. He is good on his feet and I think he'll have a lot more help from the running game this time around. NC State is no doubt going to drop guys back in the secondary because it is afteralll a Steve Spurrier team but can they really improve on the 62.2% pass completion rate of their opponents last year? Sure they have 7 starters back on defense but CB DeAndre Morgan (who was one of their top tacklers, was the top pass break up guy and had 2 interceptions) is out for this game. In the end I think Garcia is going to have an okay game and if someone can get things going on the ground for him, he is going to make some big plays when it matters most.
The NC State Wolfpack are going to be a much improved team on their 6-7 record of 2008 but I don't think it will start showing right away. They have some easy confidence building games coming up in the next two weeks against schools from the I-AA Divisions so they are guaranteed to have a winning record when they start conference play on October 3 at Wake Forest (well they are guaranteed at least .500). As much as I think they are going to contend in the ACC this season I just don't think they can handle the SEC toughness of the Gamecocks even though they are going to have great crowd support and even though they have 14 returning starters. As I mentioned before, one of their top DB's is out for this game (Morgan) and although the unit is experienced, Spurrier can cook up some serious tricks if he wants to. Tom O'Brien is now in his third season with the Wolfpack which is a big part of the reason he will shine. Since arriving in Raleigh three years ago, O'Brien and his team are only 1-2 ATS as home favorites and I think the oddsmakers are giving them way too much credit with this line. Their standout RB Andre Brown is gone, QB Russell Wilson is only a sophomore who was dead in the water against the Gamecocks last season but I don't trust Wilson at all. In 2008 he completed 54.4% of his passes as a freshman for 1955 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and 1 interception. Impressive ratio that's for sure but most of those were short passes and that's not going to cut it this year. The Wolfpack have several weapons in their offensive but the Gamecocks are too solid defensively and Wilson is going to struggle all night. This defense allowed only 21.1 points per game last season and they have Eric Norwood still here in the middle (All SEC 1st Team in 2008). They have a decent pass rush that is going to keep Russell Wilson busy all night and even though Wilson is good on his feet, he is going to feel the pressure from all sides and I think the Wolfpack are going to struggle to score points here.
In the end this comes down to SEC vs. ACC for me and I'll take the SEC anyday of the week. Also, this is Spurrier's 5th season opener as head coach of South Carolina and so far he is 4-0 in those games. As a matter of fact, South Carolina is 9-0 in their last nine season openers and there is no reason to believe they are not going to at least keep this game close. If they lose it won't be by more than a few points and it will come late in the game. Not only has South Carolina won nine straight season openers but they have won them by an average of 18 points per game. I'm sorry but I can't trust an ACC team against a decent SEC team like....ever. I also won't be betting on NC State at all this season when favored because they have shown in the past that they suck as favorites going covering the spread in only 7 of their last 26 as favorites. They have also been horrendous early on in the year with O'Brien as coach going 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played in September and I don't know if it's his off-season tactics but they are not working and his teams are usually slow out of the gates. Forget about O'Brien, NC State is only 1-5 ATS in their last six home games as a favorite and I can't back them to win by anything more than a Field Goal. Spurrier and the SC tradition of winning opening games for me.
Trend of the Game:NC State is 7-19 in their last 26 games as a favorite.
South Carolina 20, NC State 17
Oregon Ducks +3.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
The Oregon Ducks have a brand new head coach and that's usually a big fat red light for an opening game but have no fear, Chip Kelly is the man for this job and if anyone is going to succeed Mike Bellotti with any kind of success, it's going to be Kelly. How about the fact that Kelly was the offensive coordinator here last year and the Ducks managed to score 41.9 points per game. No chance in hell their offense is taking a step back this season no matter who left the program and regardless of only 4 starters returning on that side of the ball. RB Jeremiah Johnson is gone but did you all forget about LaGarette Blount (1038 rushing yards in 2008 with 17 touchdowns on the ground) or how about QB Jeremiah Masoli? He passed for 1744 yards last season but also rushed for 851 yards (10 touchdowns), completed 56.9% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes and only 5 interceptions. He is a Junior and believe me Chip Kelly and Masoli are both on the same page. THIS IS A REVENGE GAME FOR THE DUCKS for anyone who remembers that near colossal comeback that fell short against Boise State last year at home. The Broncos allowed only 12.5 points per game last season but that's not happening again this year. They return only 5 starters defensively and although they will be good, Ellis Powers and Kyle Gingg are gone (153 combined tackles, 5 combined sacks. The Broncos have a solid secondary but Oregon is not a passing team and Boise State's Defensive Line is weaker this year than last. I really think the Ducks are going to control the clock, run the ball effectively and keep the Broncos offense off the field as long as possible which usually gives teams a chance to win football games. This offense is the real deal and they are going to show it tonight.
The Boise State Broncos are being picked by several media outlets as BCS Busters and they are being called a sure shot to make the BCS yet again this season. Well that's easier said than done and I actually think Oregon has a chance to beat them tonight and I think they might lose the Tulsa game although this is the most likely loss. All you have to do is go back to the 2005 season when everyone was saying that Boise State was going to upset Georgia on opening day as the #18 team in the Country playing against the Bulldogs on the road and look what happened. Georgia won 48-13 and that was the end of that. This time around however you could argue that the Broncos have a better offense and they do have a great offense that is going to score some points but if Oregon can control the ground game the way I think they can, Boise is going to have to come up with something big if they play from behind. Running the ball won't be a problem but it's the passing game that could struggle a bit early because 3 of their top WR's from 2008 are gone and those three combined for 12 receiving touchdowns and over 1700 receing yards which is a big chunk. The Ducks secondary is pretty damn good and they have a lot of leadership back with guys like TJ Ward and Walter Thurmond (both Seniors and both outstanding defensive players). Kellen Moore had a great year in 2008 but things will only get tougher for him because Oregon knows that they are the one and only team that really has a shot of beating these guys with their weak #117 ranked schedule this season. Again I really think Oregon is going to come out of the gates swinging hard tomorrow and if they can do that, Boise State will have to play from behind, they will make mistakes with their very young and inexperienced secondary which means more mistakes for the sophomore Moore. I like Boise and it's stupid to go against them at home but Oregon wants blood and I think they can get it here.
Part 2 is what this game is all about and after last year's 37-32 home loss to these same Broncos, you can bet your bottom dollar Chip Kelly and his offense are going to be jacked up for this game. Again this is a revenge spot, it's the first game of the season and it's a perfect time to bet on an underdog in a revenge situation. Believe me I know how good Boise State has been at home over the year but most of their home games have been against WAC Conference opponents and I don't trust them against a BCS Conference team. The Broncos have not played against a ranked team at home since at least 2003 (I know they did not in 2004 to 2008) and all their impressive ATS stats at home have come against much weaker competition. People are seriously underestimating the Ducks here. It's also worth noting that Oregon is 8-1 in their last nine season opening games and this always seems like a good time to back them (it's a gift that they are underdogs). Also, despite beating Oregon last year, Boise State is only 3-11 SU lifetime versus teams from the PAC 10 Conference. Prior to facing Boise State and losing to them at home last year the Ducks were 4-0 ATS versus teams from the WAC Conference. Oregon is also 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games played in September and they seem to be hot at this time of the year. They are also 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog, 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games on turf and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games (42-31 win over Oklahoma State in the Holiday Bowl was huge). Boise State on the other hand have some lights out numbers at home but this is their BCS Buster game and I don't think they are ready to defend that honor. Revenge for the Ducks and a big win coming off that Holiday Bowl stunner is my call.
Trend of the Game: Oregon is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games played in September.
Oregon 27, Boise State 22
Friday, September 4
Tulane Green Wave +13.5 (5 Units)
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane will for the first time in a long time, rely on a virtual unknown at the QB position. Sure QB David Johnson had little experience coming into last season and sure he had to sit and watch QB Paul Smith work his career numbers at Tulsa for three years but in comes a very young group this year and the QB position is a complete mystery. This team will pretty much only go as far as their QB's take them and the most experienced guy on this team has 15 career pass attempts in the NCAA (despite putting huge numbers at a JUCO, Jacob Bower is a big question Mark). Also gone is RB Tarrion Adams who carried this team on his back last season with 14 rushing touchdowns, 1523 total rushing yards and 6.2 yards per carry. I think for the first time in three years this offense is going to fail to average 40 points per game and that is going to keep opponents in the game a lot longer than people think. Also gone is top WR Brennan Marion who had 1112 receiving yards last season on 43 catches and 8 touchdowns. He was their Home Run guy and now that the play calling will include a lot shorter yardage plays, Tulsa will have a lot more problems blowing teams out of the water. I know Tulane is not that good and their defense is going to allow some points and a ton of yards but it can't be any worse than the 489 rushing yards they allowed against Tulsa last year and they do have 6 returning starters on defense with a lot of experience in their secondary. Tulsa is going to come out of the gates very sloppy with a list of new young players and that is going to cost them the chance to run away with this game. Tulsa will have a good season but it will take some time and we are talking about a team that has covered the spread in only 4 of their 11 road games as a favorite with Todd Graham as head coach. I remember backing them in games they should win by 20 only to lose because they came out of the gates sleeping. Expect the same here.
The Tulane Green Wave will never have a team that can contend but they do have a team that can possibly pull off a few upsets here and there although it's going to take a lot of work. Last year's offensive output was their worst in ages as they managed only 16.7 points per game and had a disasterous year trying to do anything right but I would like to go back to their home opener in 2008 when they hosted East Carolina (the #14 team in the Country at the time) as a +12 point home underdog. Well in case you didn't watch it, the Green Wave had a chance to win the game, they played the Pirates very tough and lost 28-24 in the end which was one of their best results all year. So with a year's more experience for 13 returning starters on this team, I expect Tulsa to make a game of this and to have a chance to win this as well. I mean it's going to be on National Television, it's the only college game of the night and chances are this team is going to be hyped up. RB Andre Anderson is back (he was the team last year with his 7 rushing TD's and 5.0 yards per carry) and so are all 7 guys who carried the ball at least once in 2008. Also back is QB's Kevin Moore and Joe Kemp who could both see playing time here and who combined for 380 pass attempts last season. In other words a bunch of guys are back and I think that is going to inspire this team to get things done on the offensive side of things. It's Bob Toledo's third season as head coach he is 3-3 ATS as head coach here when the home underdog. Tulsa won't score points like they have in the past but their defense is definitely going to improve with 8 starters back and all their top captains back as well. However, their defense is used to having an offense that puts a lot of points on the board and it will be interesting to see how they adjust now that they are being counted on to keep games close or even win games in general. Their top DB Roy Roberts is gone but they are still going to be aggressive and that is why I like the fact that this entire Tulane offense played together last year and they know what they have coming in this game. Alright so the hype is on for this game because it's on TV, everyone is watching and the Green Wave can do what they did last year against ECU and one up it with a win. Believe me it's possible. Tulsa is a question mark.
I know Tulane has never kept any of the four career meetings between these teams even remotely close losing by at least 24 points each and every time but this is going to be a breakthrough for them. Those losses were all against Paul Smith or David Johnson last year (who completed 64.5% of his 400 pass attempts). Not so much this year. Like I mentioned before, Tulsa has struggled when favored away from home while Bob Toledo has a way with his guys at home when they are underdogs so you never know when that program changing upset is going to come. With so many guys back this could be the year. The line is screaming for some action on Tulsa and so far from what I can see the public is biting. I find that funny because the only reason anybody knows Tulsa is because of Paul Smith and David Johnson (last season). Well both are gone and this program is most likely taking a step back. Also, I really don't like the fact that Tulsa finished 2008 with four straight ATS losses on the road because it's looking more likely that they should not be favored by this much away from home in a game this big for the home team. I also noticed that most of their past meetings were in mid-season when the Golden Hurricane had their act together and in full flight. Well Tulane is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in September and they were great early on in 2008. Everything on paper is calling for another blowout win by Tulsa but I think Tulane is going to shock some people here because they do have all the tools to not only make this a game but also win the game. Watch it happen. ECU almost tasted it in the home opener last year as a ranked team and Tulsa is next in line if you ask me. UPSET FRIDAY!!!!!
Trend of the Game: Tulsa is 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road favorite.
Tulane 21, Tulsa 19
Saturday, September 5
Minnesota Golden Gophers -6.5 (10 Units)
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are the real deal and they are going to open some big time eyes this season although I don't think they can win as many games as last season. Their schedule is the #5 toughest schedule in the Country this season (pre-season wise of course) and after the first two games, things get really tough for them and they will find it hard to win at all really. That is what makes these first two games against Syracus and Air Force so important if this team wants to be Bowl Eligible again this year. I think they can do it and if they play the way they did last year, they are going to pull off a few big upsets in the Big 10 Conference this season. QB Adam Weber had a great year in 2008 and believe me this kid is tough as nails. This offense that averaged 23.2 points per game in the very tough Big 10 Conference returns 9 starters and apart from WR Jack Simmons, all the vital players are back and I have a feeling this team is going to resemble the 2005 version that averaged 35.8 points per game while returning 9 starters on that side of the ball. The team is used to playing indoors and they are used they went 4-3 SU away from home last season after going 1-6 SU on the road in Brewster's first year as coach.Their only favored away game last year was a 17-6 win at Purdue as a -2. I just don't see how Syracus is going to contain this offense? Sure they have 7 returning starters on defense but they have allowed 30+ points per game the last two seasons and I don't see that changing. The Orange allowed 42 points in their home opener last year against Akron...what does that tell you? Minnesota is going to pound away on the ground, they are going to put the ball in the air and they are going to eat away at this defense easily scoring at least 30 points in this game. Mark it down now and watch.
The Syracuse Orange will one day have this program back to respectable levels but it could take some time. Adding to the complete joke this team has become, Duke basketball star Greg Paulus is the starting QB for the Orangemen and I don't care what anyone says, his ass is going to suck. It's been years now since this offense was able to score more than 20 points per game in a season (2004 was the last time they did it with 23.9 per game) and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Not only do they have yet another new head coach but this team lacks leadership of any kind and right now the program is a disaster. The only bright spot last season was RB Curtis Brinkley who rushed for 1000+ yards but he is gone now and that leaves inexperience at all offensive positions but receivers. I was actually very impressed with Minnesota's defense last season as they allowed only 24.6 points per game and that is a big reason they were able to win 7 games and reach the Insight Bowl. Their top three tacklers are back again in 2009 and so are 8 returning starters on the defensive side of things. LB Simoni Lawrence is going to completely shut things down in the middle and he is going to be all over Paulus in this game. The Gophers had a surprising 15 interceptions from their secondary last year and all but one of those interceptionists are back this season (only Steve Davis is gone and he had 1 interception) so you better believe that when Syracuse puts that ball up, if they dare, some big plays are going to be made and this game is going to get ugly in a hurry. I expect Syracuse to fall apart sometime in the second quarter and even though they might keep it close early, they are not going to score enough points to match Minnesota's thirty and this is an easy spread to cover for the Gophers.
You would think after 3-4 years of being pathetic that Syracuse would have found a way (with the resources they have) to turn this program around but it has yet to happen. Another year, another head coach. I remember that Minnesota lost their road opener in 2007 to Florida Atlantic and that was embarassing so they answered the bell last year with a 42-17 thrashing of Bowling Green in their road opener which means they have now won 6 of their last 7 road openers. Brewster is going to have these guys ready and like I mentioned before, because of their tough schedule the rest of the way, this game means a lot to them and they don't have a choice but to use this game to work on stuff so don't expect them to let off the gas pedal once they hit it hard enough. Minnesota was a perfect 4-0 ATS last year in their games played in September and Brewster is going to be looking for that very same kind of start this time around. The Gophers also finished the season with some big time wins on the road and they are actually 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. For those of you thinking upset in this game you might want to reconsider. Syracuse is 1-6 SU in their last seven home openers and they have lost their last six games versus BCS Schools by an average of 18.0 points per game. They are also 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog, they have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 12 home games and are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams from the Big Ten Conference. Top that off with the fact that Greg Paulus is their QB and the fact that they have covered the spread in only 2 of their last 9 non-conference games and I think they get their asses handed to them in this one. Bank it.
Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
Minnesota 38, Syracuse 17
Baylor Bears +2 (5 Units)
The Baylor Bears better have their act together from the very beginning in this game or they won't be around for long based on what happened to them last year. The Bears have definitely not forgotten about their 41-13 home loss to this very same Wake Forest team in their season opener last year but the circumstances surrounding this game are very different if you ask me. First of all, Baylor is coming off a 4 win season that could have very easily been a 7 win season and seen them go to a Bowl Game for the first time since 1994. I mean they won 4 games but lost 31-28 at Connecticut, they lost 31-28 at home against Missouri and they finished off their season with a near win at Texas Tech. Honestly those are all impressive performances so keeping in mind that Baylor returns a whopping 16 starters on both sides of the ball this season, means I really like their chances in this season opener. QB Robert Griffin was one of the most underrated freshman in the Nation last year because as a frosh, he passed for 2091 yards, 15 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions while completing 59.9% of his passes. He also rushed for 1118 yards and 13 touchdowns on 4.9 yards per carry. THIS GUY IS LIKE SUPERMAN! So my thoughts are that he can only get better in his second year and we are about to see it. This kid can play and Wake Forest needs to watch out. I say that because despite allowing only 18.3 points per game last season, the Demon Deacons have only 4 starters back on defense this year and their 5 top tacklers from 2008 are all gone (combined 370+ tackles). You also have to keep in mind that their secondary is completely revamped and that from the departing players of 2008 also goes a total of 15 interceptions (5 different players combined) which is a huge loss no matter how good your youngsters are. This is a very dangerous spot for Wake Forest and believe me if Griffin starts playing the way he can play from the very beginning, Baylor is going to win this game and start their Bowl-Bound season on a positive note. I see it happening for sure.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons know this is a dangerous game. I say that because the last three season they have reached a Bowl Game and the last three seasons they have been blessed with defenses that have not allowed more than 22.2 points per game in any of those seasons. Well things are about to change that's for sure. I already explained the losses for the Deacons on the defensive side of things but you can probably count on the offense to be a lot better than it was in 2008 when they scored only 21.0 points per game with 5 returning starters. Now they have a whopping 9 returning starters on offense with QB Riley Skinner back at fulll health. The only problem that I have with this offense is that Skinner does everything himself pretty much. He had the best yards per carry of all players who carried the ball in 2008 and if it wasn't for his heroics with the ball, the Deacons would have had a losing season. If Wake Forest struggles to score points, and I think they will, they won't be around for long in this game. I don't care what anyone says, the fact that Baylor allowed only 29.3 points per game last season is impressive in the Big 12 Conference and this year they return 8 starters on the defensive side of things. Their returning DB's combined for 14 interceptions last season and 6 of their top 7 tacklers are back for this great revenge spot in the season opener. Art Briles is a smart coach and he proved it in Houston. He finally has some defense to work with a veteran linebacking crew that is going to be all over Skinner in this game. I am not saying that they won't allow points but I am saying that with new players and new schemes, Wake Forest won't have their act together in time for things to be well in this game and Baylor is defintiely going to be inspired knowing that if they can win this game they will probably have a great chance of playing in a Bowl Game this year. Wake Forest is a dud in this one and you are wasting your time here. Just watch.
Alright so I don't blame anyone for taking Wake Forest after their demolished Baylor last year in the season opener but things have changed way too much to put any stock into that game. Not only was that game too early in the season but Baylor was one of the most improved teams last season as time went along and they are only going to be better again this season. Wake Forest is decapitated on the defensive side of things and with one of the most underrated players in the Country (Robert Griffin) out to make a name for himself, these guys are in serious trouble if you ask me. You have to also consider that 21 of Wake Forest's 41 points came off 5 Baylor turnovers last year and that is not going to happen again this time around. Apart from their win over the Bears last year, Wake Forest was 0-4 SU against Baylor in the past and with a weaker team this year don't be shocked if they lose again. They are 2-12 SU against Big 12 teams and again the score is a bit blown up from that game last year. Baylor finished 2008 with five straight spread covers going 5-0 ATS in those games and showing the betting world that they are going to be back in 2009 with a bang...and I don't doubt it. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in September. Wake Forest is always going to be a good home team but I just don't think Skinner can match Griffin blow for blow in a shocking statement I never thought I would ever make, I see Baylor's defense getting a lot more big plays in today than the Wake Forest defense and that is a fact. So I am taking a mini upset and believe me after this game people will know Robert Griffin. COUNT ON IT!
Trend of the Game: Baylor is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.
Baylor 17, Wake Forest 14
Oklahoma State Cowboys -5 (10 Units)
The Georgia Bulldogs are not the Georgia Bulldogs of 2008 nor are they anything close to that team as they lost two of the top players in the Nation to the NFL Draft and not having QB Matthew Stafford or RB Knoshawn Moreno means this team pretty much has to start from scratch again this season. It won't be a big problem because Mark Richt is a good recruiter and he knows how to develop these kids to perfection but those are some serious superstars this team just lost and unless someone is willing to step up and cover that load, the Bulldogs are in for a long season in the SEC let alone in this game. Stafford is gone to the NFL (although I think he is going to suck ass there) and while we are at it, his favorite target Mohamed Massaquoi is also gone. So this team has a lot of work to do on offense despite having 7 returning starters. They scored 31.5 points per game last season and although they could come close again this season, don't expect them to win big games like this one. Oklahoma State is ready for this challenge on both sides of the ball and although they are going to get picked apart by some of the shootout teams in the Big 12 this season, this is actually a perfect opponent to start their season because again Georgia is revamping on offense. The Cowboys return 9 of their top 12 tacklers from last season and they are all a lot more experienced and ready for games like this. I know for a fact that the atmosphere is going to be wild and do not forget that even with their stars last year, Georgia managed only 14 points in their road opener at South Carolina and they scored only 17 at Auburn to finish the year as well. I think the offense will have all sorts of problems and it will take a few weeks to work them out.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys know they have a good team this year but the brunt of things is going to fall on their defense because allowing 56 points to Texas Tech last season and 61 points to Oklahoma in the season finale is going to get them nowhere fast if they have any thoughts of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game at the end of the year. Having said that, their defense looks a lot better and lot more experienced which means that if they can stop teams from scoring, they are going to be one of the best teams in the Country all season. I say that because this is one of the best offenses in the NCAA like it was last year as they scored 40.8 points per game and they return 7 starters including 1626 yard rusher RB Kendall Hunter (16 touchdowns and 6.5 yards per carry) as well as QB Zac Robinson who was a beast with 3064 passing yards in 2008 on 25 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions and 65.0% of his passes completed. WR Dez Bryant is back with his unbelievable paws that brought down 19 receiving touchdowns in 2008 and it should also be noted that Zac Robinson rushed for 700 yards last year. What the hell can Georgia do to stop these guys anyways? The Bulldogs have a tremendous defense as always and everyone is back from the 2008 team that allowed 24.5 points per game but hold on...that's a lot of points for a standard Georgia team. LSU dropped 38 on them last year, Kentucky also dropped 38, Georgia Tech dropped 45 in the season finale and Alabama dropped 41 on them mid-season. Wow that's dangerous and I think they get splattered here again today. The problem with the Bulldogs is their secondary (they got torched at times last year) and with a guy like Robinson launching bombs down the field on his home turf, this thing could get ugly in a hurry.
No doubt the Bulldogs are going to keep this competitive and it's never considered rebuilding for good teams like this but the bottom line is that they lost two superstars who went high in the NFL Draft and this is a very tough game to start the new season. The Bulldogs are a perefect 3-0 SU lifetime versus Oklahoma State but the Cowboys were nothing like they are now, they have one of the best offenses in the Nation if not the overall best (I say they don't) and one of the big reason why this team could not make it over the hump and compete for the Big 12 Championship is because a) they allowed too many points. However, they allowed only 12 points against Michigan State in Capital One Bowl last season and that should have the motivated for this game. You have to know that Oklahoma State went 5-0 ATS at home last year when favored. Georgia has won 8 straight home openers which is impressive and all but this is by far their toughest test of all those games. You can also counter that by the fact that OKLAHOMA STATE HAS WON 13 STRAIGHT HOME OPENERS and have not lost on opening day since 1995 when Nebraska took them down. The Cowboys are also 15-0 SU in their last fifteen non-conference home games winning those games by an average of 33 points per game. OUCH! So despite being good in non-conference games, good as underdogs and good in September, Georgia is in trouble and it started showing late last season. Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in their last six home games as a favorite and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on Field Turf. They have always been a good team to bet on when favored and this should be no different if you ask me. The Cowboys will probably be perfect on the year heading into the grand finale showdown with Oklahoma and until then they are going to impress with each and every one of their wins like this one. I am taking the Cowboys.
Trend of the Game: Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite.
Oklahoma State 31, Georgia 16
Connecticut Huskies -3.5 (5 Units)
The Connecticut Huskies finished the 2008 with a statement Bowl Game win in Toronto at the International Bowl as they completely demolished an overrated Buffalo team 38-20 as -7 point favorites in that games. What that did is set the tone for 2009 because the team knew they were losing their top two offense players RB Donald Brown and QB Tyler Lorenzen. NO PROBLEM is what I have to say to both of them leaving. RB Jordan Todman was outstanding as well last year rushing the ball 43 times and averaging 6.3 yards per carry on those rushes with 3 touchdowns. He came out of the spring as the top back on the team but don't forget about RB Andre Dixon who has been here a long time and who led the team in rushing yards in 2007. At the QB spot comes the Notre Dame transfer QB Zach Frazer who played in a few games last season and did a whole lot better at passing the ball than the other QB's even though he had only 2 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. He is not mobile or experienced in this offense like Lorenzen but this team has lacked a decent or even average passing game for years and finally they have a natural passer who is going to put up some numbers while improving on his numbers from 2008. The Ohio defense has some big holes to fill from last year as they lose 5 of their top 8 tacklers from a year ago, they have to replace their top pass rusher Jameson Hartke and one of their top DB's Mark Parson is also gone. I think as the season progresses they are going to improve a lot and they are going to contend for the MAC East Title at some point but for now this defense is going to struggle in the home opener and Connecticut has experience at almost all offensive positions. The Huskies had only 2 receiving touchdowns all season in 2008 and both passes were by Fraser. The team brings in a new Offensive Coordinator and I think if they can add a passing attack to their already potent running schemes, this team has the potential to be dangerous in many different ways in the Big East this season.
The Ohio Bobcats are being called a 'surprise' team by several experts but I am not going to believe it until I see it. It's one thing to look like a team that can pull upsets on paper but it's another thing to back it up on the playing field and that is what remains pending with these guys. The Bobcats are coming off a 4 win season and they have not played in a Bowl Game since their surprise appearance in the 2006 GMAC Bowl but if what the experts predicts actually happens, these guys are going back to another Bowl Game. So we are talking about a team that returns 7 starters on offense and that scored 24.1 points per game last season. How the heck will they score against a Big East defense like Connecticut's? Every vital players is back on offense for the Bobcats so that is a positive but the Huskies from Connecticut have one of the most underrated defenses of the last couple of years as they allowed only 19.0 points per game in 2007 and followed that up by allowing only 19.8 points per game in 2008. The Huskies have the core of their defense back this season and I say Ohio is going to have problems scoring in this game because in their 6 road games last season, Connecticut allowed more than 21 points only twice and that was to Louisville and North Carolina. Believe me when I say that Ohio is not capable of putting up such numbers and just ask Rutgers (12 points), Temple (9 points), Syracuse (14 points) and South Florida (17 points) how annoying it is to play against this defense. They have their top 4 tacklers back from 2008, they have a secondary that returns 15 interceptions from last year and despite losing their top pass rusher Cody Brown, they are still going to be solid up the middle. QB Boo Jackson is good but he makes too many mistakes with the game on the line and he will probably split time with QB Theo Scott in this one. The two combined for 14 interceptions last season and like I said before, you don't want to mess with this UConn secondary because they are good. Ohio will play well but they won't score enough on this defense to cover the spread.
Interesting that the Huskies would be favored in this game having lost Lorenzen and Brown to graduation. Even with so many people calling Ohio the team to watch in the MAC Conference this season, oddsmakers have sided with the Huskies who have a very solid defensive core and I think that will make a huge difference. You can actually expect both teams to have problems scoring points in this game but that is nothing new for a Connecticut team that had those long boring games on more than one occasion last season. What's very encouraging to me is that not only do the Huskies come into this game off that momentum building Bowl win but they have a very good head coach who has led them to a 6-0 SU mark in their last six season opening games. Connecticut is also an impressive 13-0 SU in their last 13 games versus MAC Conference opponents. In 2005 Ohio pulled of an epic upset in their home opener against another Big East team Pitt as they beat the Panthers 16-10 in overtime as a +14 point underdog so they are dangerous. However, despite winning 5 of their last 6 home openers, those other games have been against much weaker opponents. The mistake I made last season is going against the Huskies when favored as they are now 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and they have covered 8 of their last 11 games away from home as a favorite. They have covered the spread in 29 of their last 44 non-conference games and have had success against MAC teams in the past. Ohio has also been very good in non-conference action covering six straight games but that ends here as Connecticut shows how surprising they are in their new passing attack and although it won't be pretty, their defense will take over when it matters most.
Trend of the Game: Connecticut is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite.
Connecticut 24, Ohio 10
Alabama Crimson Tide -6.5 (10 Units)
The Virginia Tech Hokies and Frank Beamer have silently been one of the best teams in recent memory when it comes to winning their season opening games both at home and on the road. That was a disaster last year in their home opening loss to East Carolina as -9 point favorites but you would think that Frank Beamer would be more ready this time around. Easier said than done for sure. Sure they are coming off a 2008 season that somehow saw them win the ACC Championship Game over Boston College to the tune of a 30-12 win but this is also the Hokies team that demolished Cincinnati 20-7 in the Orange Bowl. So what gives with the line? I mean the offense managed only 22.1 points per game in 2008, they are going to improve this season but it's usually all about Bud Foster and his defense that allows nothing per game. QB Tyrod Taylor owns the job this season, there is no Sean Glennon hanging in the shadows and we will probably see the best of him now that he is the man on campus. Or will we? Despite being a tremendous Michael Vick type ball carrier, Taylor is not a good passer as he completed 57.2% of his passes in 2008 for only 1036 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. Unless he can find a way to move the ball in the air in this game, the Hokies are in big trouble. RB Darren Evans who rushed for 1310 yards last season with 11 rushing touchdowns and 17 pass receptions...is out for the year. If you think for a second that an Alabama defense that has 9 returning starters from a team that allowed only 14.3 points per game last season, is going to allow Tyrod Taylor to unload on them, you have another thing coming. This is a sick defense that loses only Rashad Johnson and his 5 interceptions but other than that they have 6 of their top 7 tacklers back and the core of this Sugar Bowl bound defense. Withouth Evans, Taylor needs time to adjust and the minute he thinks he can pass the ball, the Hokies are going to start turning the ball over and Alabama will take control of this game. Too predictable this Tyrod Taylor.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are no doubt National Title Contenders once again this season but that is only if they can find a way to have the same kind of season this season as they did in 2008 which saw them go 12-0 until the two most important games of the year and that was their 31-20 loss to Florida in the SEC Championship Game which was followed by their 31-17 Sugar Bowl loss to that damn team from Utah. Nick Saban probably spent a good part of the summer ripping his hair out over those two losses and he has probably been waiting for this game to come for the longest time. He hates losing and he cannot wait to have his guys back out there. There are going to be tons of Alabama fans in attendance for this one and I think they are going to unload a lot of frustrations on both sides of the ball here. Finally QB John Parker Wilson is gone (one of the most annoying QB's ever in college football) and so are his stupid mistakes in big games. QB Greg McElroy won't lead them to a National Title but this offense will improve on the 30.1 points per game they put up last season. Believe me. RB Glen Coffee is also gone but that doesn't matter because the Tide winning games and scoring points all goes back to what they can do for us on defense and from what I have seen they are going to create a ton of turnovers again this season which means points for the offense. Virginia Tech loses their top two tacklers from last season which is an issue seeing how they had problems in the middle and the backbone of their defense Victor Harris is also gone. Ouch. My opinion is that as soon as the offense starts to struggle, the defense won't be too far behind them and then things are all going to fall apart for the Hokies. This is not a good spot for them and like I said before, Nick Saban has an arsenal of plays he is just waiting to unload here on National TV on a Saturday Night primetime game and that is bad news for Beamer and Foster's defense. I call for Alabama to run these guys out of this place in a hurry although the VT defense will do all they can to keep it close early.
GAME OF THE WEEK for sure in College Football with very little to chose from on opening week but as is the case year after year, the big games with all the hype are never all that good and that is why I think Alabama is going to blow Virginia Tech right into next week's game against Marshall at home. I know these two teams have not played each other since 1998 but it's worth nothing that history is against the Hokies as they are 1-10 lifetime versus Alabama. The Hokies are 11-2 SU in their last 13 season opening games which brings me back to Beamer knowing how to prepare his teams but both losses have come on neutral sites and one of those two losses was last year's loss to East Carolina and the other was to USC back in 2004. Alabama comes into this game 18-2 SU in their last 20 season opening games and seeing how they lost their last two games of 2008, they are going to come out guns blazing here. Don't get me wrong, I have made tons of cash over the last 3-4 seasons betting on Virginia Tech as an underdog and they do have a good track record but that only applies for ACC road games if you ask me. The Hokies are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games played in September and they have covered the spread in only 2 of their last 10 non-conference games. That is horrendous. Alabama did not disappoint as a favorite last year going 5-1 ATS in their last five games when favored. I absolutely do not trust Tyrod Taylor to be efficient in this game and I think things are going to at some point get nasty and Saban is going to keep throwing some gas on the fire. It will be close at first but the floodgates will open and Bama will roll tide roll.
Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Alabama 28, Virginia Tech 10
Louisiana State Tigers -17.5 (10 Units)
The LSU Tigers are strangely enough kicking off their season with a road game out West and although I am not too sure what the purpose of this game location would be, I do know that the Tigers do have every intention of not only winning by 40+ points but of shutting out the Washington Huskies like they have done to 5 opponents since the 2004 season. Make no mistake about it, the Tigers have a great chance to contend for the National Title if they can get their act together and if they can avoid losing to Florida by 30 points this season and then following that up with four more losses on the season. The Tigers did recover from that 5 loss fiasco season with a very impressive 38-3 Chick-fil-A Bowl Game win over Georgia Tech and I think a win like that should have these guys confident. I mean we all know they can score points and they probably have one of the most solid running games in the Country with RB Charles Scott and RB Keiland Williams reaching their peak. No way can the Washington defense contain those two. The problem last year was the QB positions for the Tigers because the two guys who played combined for 17 interceptions and their pass completion ratio was not good but QB Jordan Jefferson was only a freshman and he did pass for 4 touchdowns and only 1 interception. He is going up against a Huskies defense that allowed 38.6 points per game last season and even if they bring back 10 starters from their defense, it wasn't even a good defense to get excited about. Only twice last season did the Washington Huskies hold an opponent to less than 30 points scored at home so expect LSU to drop at least 30 in this game with the kind of offense they have. WR Brandon LaFell is a leader on this team and he is going to torch the Washington secondary that has no choice but to help out in the box. If they don't help...the running attack is going to have some 50+ yard carries and they are going to pound away. The Washington defense has no chance in this game if you ask me and they are going to struggle to keep this hungry LSU team under 40 points. No doubt about it.
The Washington Huskies are terrible, they suck, they won't improve and the biggest lesson anyone could ever learn about betting on sports is DO NOT BACK BAD TEAMS NO MATTER HOW MUCH YOU THINK THEY CAN DO IT. I am personally a fan of QB Jake Locker and I just think he has had the bad breaks (not literally but ya sorta). Having said that, he cannot handle a game like this nor can he managed to lead this offense to anything more than a few field goals against this defense. I mean the Huskies are going to improve on their 0-12 SU record of last year and they are going to improve on their pathetic 13.3 points per game of last season but in the end it's going to take time and the only bright spot from their offense in 2008 was RB Terrance Dailey who is now gone. Can you believe this team only had 4 receiving touchdowns all season? OUCH! Basically what they are dealing with in this game is a rabid LSU defense that was criticized pretty much all off-season because for the first time since God knows when (it's been more than five years I know that) the Tigers allowed more than 20 points per game on the season and that is not acceptable. Well 7 starters are back, their top four tacklers are all back, their top DB's are all back and this is going to have to be a group effort if they want to improve. Washington has problems doing anything with the ball and that won't be any different in this game. This is a young defense that still lacks natural big name talent or superstars but having said that I fully trust new Defensive Coordinator John Chavis because he is a huge upgrade over the two clowns who ran the show last year. Chavis will want to make statement in his very first game and it will be at the expense of the Washington Huskies.
Not the most exciting game on the board but if LSU shows up and plays anything like the LSU of every year prior to 2008, we are going to see a blowout. Sure they might struggle a bit at first but they are too talented for this game to stay close and again with a new defensive coordinator and all the critics bashing the decison to use two DC's last year, even if LSU doesn't score, they won't want to let the Tigers score any themselves. LSU is always tough to beat in season openers as they are 6-0 SU in their last six season opening games. The only stat that really matters in this game is the fact that since 2004, only 3 non-conference BCS teams have made the trip to Seattle to play the Huskies and Washington has lost all three games by an average margin of 26.0 points per game. Need I say more as they go up against a hungry LSU team? On top of that, this game is being played on turf and LSU loves the turf going 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games on this stuff. They are also 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games played against non-conference opponents and the biggest problem with betting on LSU last season is that they could not stop opponents enough times to win by large margins hence why they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. Well that is about to change here. Speaking of Washington, the Huskies are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog and they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of 10.5+ points. They are a horrendous team that can only improve and although they will win some games this season. LSU is going to blow them out of the water here.
Trend of the Night: Washington is 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
LSU 36, Washington 6
Sunday, September 6
Mississippi Rebels -17 (5 Units)
The Mississippi Rebels have their best team maybe ever, they know it, they cherish but now what the hell can they do about it in a season opening rivalry game against Memphis? The floor is yours Houston Nutt and if you use it right, you can make some big time noise in the Country this season. When you think about it the Rebels could have had the big season in 2008 but they lost some close games and the key to the 2009 is going to be focus and nothing but focus in each and every game on each and every play. Well that all starts right now because these two teams hate each other and Memphis will obviously try to do everything possible to put a quick stop to the Rebels attempt of finishing the season ranked in the TOP 10 for the first time since 1969. Everyone is back on offense as the plethora of outstanding RB's that combined for 17 rushing touchdowns and close to 2000+ rushing yards are all back this season and so is QB Jevan Snead who just happens to be one of the best transfers and most successful transfers I have seen in a long time. In 2008 he completed 56.3% of his passes, for 2762 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Memphis is literally screwed in this game because they return 7 starters to a defense that allowed 27.2 points per game last season and their problem has always been stopping the run. Well they have not figured it out yet and Ole Miss is going to run early and often and then let Snead drop some bombs on this secondary that was much improved in 2008 but that was only because the pass rush was so effective. Memphis is going to struggle to even come close to Snead in this game and that will allow the Junior to hook up with guys like WR Shay Hodge and excellent End Zone TE Gerald Harris. In the end Ole Miss is too tough to stop and even though they are improved, Memphis will have a nightmare in this game.
The Memphis Tigers reached a Bowl Game in 2008 and that was the goal when the season started because they have now been to two straight Bowl Games and things look like they are on the up. Having said that, I can see Memphis doing a bit of damage in the CUSA East Division more so than in a non-conference home game versus a team that is slotted to finish in the TOP 10 ranked teams in the Country at the end of the season. This team managed to score 27.2 points per game last season and they do have several vital members of their offense back in place again but the question is can they score some points on Ole Miss or are they going to go 3 and out pretty much every possession and had the Rebels come good field position. Well for starters only 5 starters return for Memphis on offense and I don't know if you noticed but Mississippi's success last year was based on the fact that their defense allowed less than 20 points per game for the first time in ages with 8 returning starters. Well they again have 8 returning starters on defense, they have Tyrone Nix as the Defensive Coordinator (excellent work with South Carolina) and despite losing several of their top tacklers from last season, their secondary is going to be nasty and right now they have the best Defensive Line in the SEC if you ask me. It's debatable and maybe Florida fans would like to debate that but do you not think DE Kentrell Lockett is on the verge of some huge things? He had 9.5 tackles for a loss last season and along with a very aggressive secondary, these guys should have problems shutting down the Memphis Tigers on pretty much all possessions. I think Memphis can score in this game but not enough and not often enough to keep this close.
Rivalry game it is...close matchup...not so much. I mean Ole Miss managed to win this game by 17 points last season at home as -9.5 point favorites but now they have an extra year under their belts and they are more experienced so I really expect them to come out firing on all cylinders in this game. You have to go all the way back to 1995 to find the last time Ole Miss came into this place and won by more than 4 points (their last three wins here have been by 9 points combined) but this is a special team that is going to do some special things. We all know Memphis can run the ball and the 188 rushing yards they put up on Ole Miss in 2008 was the most the Rebels allowed all year so you can bet your bottom dollar they don't want that to happen again and believe me the Rebels have the best Defensive Line possibly in the Nation. Mississippi is 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games and they are also a very impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. I know these team has not done well when playing on turf in the past and they do come out of the gates quite slowly sometimes but this is a very different team, they have a lot on the line and I expect big things here. Memphis on the other hand has made me some dough as a large point underdog and it does concern me that they love games like this but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games and they do not have the tools to mess with the latest and most recent emergence of Ole Miss as an SEC Conference Power House which they are not yet but have talked about it. Give me the Rebels to rip Memphis a new one although the Tigers will no doubt give us a nice scare along the way.
Trend of the Game: Mississippi is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Mississippi 38, Memphis 10
Colorado State Rams +10 (10 Units)
The Colorado Rams are underdogs by a lot more than I thought in this game tonight which I find quite strange based on the fact that the games between these two teams are traditionally very close every year and despite last year's blowout loss 38-17 to the Buffaloes, the Rams actually used that loss as a turning point for their season, they then went on to win 7 games and reach their first Bowl Game since 2005. So you would think that these guys would get a bit more credit from oddsmakers seeing how not only did they reach that New Mexico Bowl Game but they won as +2 points underdogs in a 40-35 win over the Fresno State Bulldogs. So what gives here Vegas? I have no idea how he did it, since he was useless with the Buffalo Bills, but Steve Fairchild led them to a Bowl Game in his first season and now he is back for more. The offense managed 25.2 points per game in 2008 and they had their highest rushing yards per game total since 2003. I think the reason Colorado State is such an underdog here is because Vegas is looking at the fact that the top two rushers on this team are gone and the QB from last season is gone too. We are going to see a new look offense I think if QB Grant Stucker is at the helms. This kid can run on the ground. He had 4 run attempts last year and produced 43 yards. Not bad. He also completed 3 of 5 passes and is a Senior who has experience and who understands rivalries. Rivalry games are shootouts most of the time unless teams can play defense and Colorado has only 4 returning starters from a team that allowed a whopping 29.3 points per game last season. They lose 3 combined interceptions and a whopping 17 sacks (Brad Jones was awesome and he is gone) so by all means Colorado State is going to put some points up on the board just like they did in that Bowl Game last winter and that is why I think they will have no problems keeping this game close and putting themselves in a nice position to win this game. I mean Colorado is not getting any better on defense and seeing how the Rams want revenge for last year's blowout, I say they get it.
The Colorado Buffaloes are well aware that Colorado State is out for blood. That will either help them or hurt them in this situation because they might come out nervous and make some early mistakes or they might feed off the energy of the crowd and shoot for the endzone on every play. Nonetheless, this is a very capable offense that scored only 20.2 points per game last season (shocking and disappointing if you ask me for a Dan Hawkins team) and now that they have 9 starters back on that side of the ball, we are in for some kind of offensive treat I think. Everyone and anyone who ran the ball last year is back. Everyone and anyone who passed the ball last year is also back. Sure they lose two key Wide Receivers in Patrick Williams and Cody Crawford (combined 61 catches last year) but they should be fine with the plethora of experience they bring to the table this year. Having said that, I expect a complete shootout in this game so scoring points may not mean jack if Colorado State is scoring just as many and it looks like they will be. Sure the Rams defense sucks having allowed 30.2 points per game last season and sure they return only 5 starters on that side of the ball but all that can be tossed out the window in games like this. All I know is that this team has a couple of guys who are real deal breakers on defense as LB Mychal Sisson is one of them and he finished with 105 tackles (7.5 for a loss) last season. No matter how much the Rams continue to attack and be aggressive, I don't think it will be enough to win this game by a lot because I am positive that they do not have the resources on defense to stop Colorado State enough times to pull away with the game. Both Dan and Cody Hawkins are on the hot seat coming into this season and that is the kind of pressure I think neither will react well to so I see the Buffaloes crashing and burning early in this one. It's going to be a good game but Colorado doesn't have the defense to blow it out.
The rivalry between these two schools always produces close games. Last year was an exception to the matter and even after their blowout loss to Colorado, the Rams from Colorado State still managed a Bowl Game while the Buffaloes did not. So what you can learn from this line is that oddsmakers have grossely invested too much into last year's blowout and they have not taken into consideration that Colorado State will be more motivated than ever to win this game or at least keep it close. How demoralizing must it be for Colorado to know that you had that blow out win over the Rams last season yet they made the Bowl Game and you didn't? Before last year's blowout win by Colorado, the previous 6 meetings had all been decided by a combined 25 points and none of them by more than a touchdown. I think we go back to that tradition here. I also find it interesting that since the arrival of Dan Hawkins as coach (the Buffaloes were 16-2 in home openers), this team is only 1-2 in home openers with a loss to I-AA team and a near loss to another I-AA team last year. No matter how bad Colorado State was last year and the year before as a road underdog, this is rivalry game, they are pissed about last year and they are coming off a huge Bowl Game win. Colorado finished 2008 going 2-7 ATS in their last nine games and you have to know that the line is severely blown up for this game as Colorado is only 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. That says it all right there, expect an upset win and expect Dan Hawkins to last another few weeks only if that happens. This could be the last straw Hawkins!
Trend of the Game: Colorado is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.
Colorado State 34, Colorado 31
Monday, September 7
Cincinnati Bearcats +5 (5 Units)
The Cincinnati Bearcats are not satisified with their BCS bound 11 win season in 2008 because they lost the Orange Bowl 20-7 against Virginia Tech and to them that is not a complete season. Brian Kelly is now in his third season as head coach of this team but he faces some huge challenges on the road back to glory and I will be completely shocked if this team finds a way to make it back to the BCS. Not happening. Having said that, I think they are actually going to better offensively than their 25.9 points per game in 2008 and I say that because the offense returns a ton of experience with their top RB's all returning and with QB Tony Pike already established as the leaders of this team. Pike can do it all, although I think Kelly prefers if he stays in one spot and makes plays downfield, as he rushed for 56 times last season while passing for 2407 yards, 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. This is his Senior year, expect some big things. WR Mardy Gilyard is also back with his 11 touchdown catches last season and 2 kickoff return touchdowns. This kid is electric and if you lose track of him on the field, he is going to burn you. One of the most dangerous kickoff return guys in the Nation. How will Rutgers handle this? Well for starters defense was not a problem for the boys in red last year as they allowed only 18.8 points per game (their second lowest total in years). However they run a bit short in the secondary this season losing two of their top three tacklers and losing 5 of their 9 interceptions from 2008. They also lost top pass rusher Jamal Westerman so adjusting will take a bit of time and it won't happen against a pissed off Cincinnati team. The Bearcats will only go as far as their offense takes them this season so the key to this game will be Pike's ability to pick receivers deep down the field and his ability to identify holes in the secondary because Rutgers is very young in the back and they will no doubt make some mistakes. I don't know about this Cincinnati team just yet but I think they could still be decent if their defense supports them at all this year.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are coming off their most miserable season since that 1-11 SU record back in 2002 and Greg Schiano has been bugged by this game pretty much the entire off-season. That is one man I would not want to be around when Rutgers loses this game. Well at least his team has the #106 toughest ranked schedule in the Nation which pretty much guarantees him a trip back to the Bowl Schedule and guarantees a turnaround year for these guys but this is probably one of their toughest games all season. I said earlier that the offense was the problem and it may not look like it on paper because they scored 29.0 points per game in 2008 but those big numbers were not there the first 7 games of the season where Rutgers averaged only 16.7 points per game in those games. So it was a huge stumble out of the gates before a big points explosion near the end of the year. Having said that I don't see how Rutgers can justify their QB situation with all-time career passing leader QB Mike Teel gone to graduation. Sure he had a rough time sometimes but he has been the QB here since 2006 (he was the backup to second career passing leader at Rutgers QB Mike Hard) and it will take time to adjust to the new guys. I mean QB Domenic Natale and QB Jabu Lovelace combined for 11 pass attempts last season. The new QB won't get any help from his receiving corps as 3 of the top 4 WR's are gone including WR Kenny Britt and WR Tiquan Underwood who had been a huge part of this team. The Scarlet Knights will probably run the ball quite a bit and it will probably work but can they avoid the mistakes? I think not. Cincinnati returns an NCAA low 1 starter on defense this season so I doubt they allow anything less than 20 points per game. Having said that, they have at least 6 Seniors starting on defense who have been around the program and I think they will learn quickly with new Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco. What is most important in this game is to know that with last year's offense and this year's Cincinnati defense, I would pick the Scarlet Knights to win in a blowout. But an inexperienced as Cincinnati is on defense, the same can be said about Rutgers on offense so they cancel each other out in a sense. I think Rutgers continues to struggle on offense.
So the Bearcats have dominated this series since the arrival of Brian Kelly and now that they have their weakest defense under Kelly, it will be interesting to see how they react. Despite going 0 for 11 in third down situations and taking 12 penalties in the game, Cincinnati still managed to beat Rutgers last year 13-10 as a -7 point favorite. It was a horrendous game and I expect this one to be just as sloppy with both teams having the chance to win. That is why I don't quite understand the 5 points posted by Vegas here. Also this just in, Rutgers leading RB from last season RB Kordell Young is probably out for this game which means even more inexperience on offense for the Scarlet Knights. It's been since 2005 that Rutgers last beat Cincinnati and as badly as they want to win this game, it won't be easy and Cincinnati is never a pushover (Brian Kelly teams never stop fighting). I remember some of my largest wagers of the last few season being on Cincinnati and Kelly as an underdog because this is where they shine. Don't believe me? Well Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. They are also a whopping 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog in general and are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. They seem to love playing on natural grass and I like Tony Pike to lead this team. Rutgers will have a better season but they were 0-4 ATS in September last year and are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. This is the wrong spot for them and I just can't bet on a team that lost that many offensive weapons after starting the first 7 games of last season averaging only 16.7 points per game, and that was with a bunch of experienced and returning players. As long as Rutgers continues to struggle scoring, they are not winning this football game and the Bearcats will once again surprise.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
Cincinnati 20, Rutgers 13
Miami Hurricane +6.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Miami Hurricane could very well win 10 or 11 games this season because as bad as they were in 2008, they wound with 7 wins anyways and now we see Randy Shannon in his third year of action as head coach of this program. Third year is usually the charm. I remember the Emerald Bowl at the end of last season where the entire world was picking California to blow Miami out of the water but the Hurrican really looked good and I think they really prepared themselves for this 2009 season. The offense is finally back after taking a few years off and with only 5 returning starters in 2008, they still managed their highest point total since 2005 with 27.1 points per game last season. Now they have 8 returning starters and I think Randy Shannon is going to things loose. He has no choice. The Canes have 10 days between now and their next game so this is all that matters. RB Graig Cooper is injured but I heard he was going to play. Regardless this is all about QB Jacory Harris and his ability to evolve into a top notch Heisman candidate quarterback this season. I mean he started only 2 games last season but completed 60.8% of his passes for 1195 passing yards, 12 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions as a freshman. Now that this is his team, I think he is going to shine. Harris was spectacular in forcing OT against Virginia and winning that game in OT and he started the Bowl Game against California. Florida State's defense is a bit deflated after losing their top 3 tacklers from 2008 which means a combined 207 tackles, 18.5 tackles for a loss, 5 sacks and 1 interception. Also gone is their best pass rusher Everette Brown who had 13.5 sacks last season so this is a trying year for Defensive Coordinator Mickey Andrews because if Bowden goes, so does Andrews. I think Miami is really going to take it to this inexperienced defense this year and Jacory Harris is about to have a big time breakout party on National TV. This kid can be a star and we are going to see what he is made of. The Noles made too many changes on defense and I don't think they can contain him all game. Like I said, Randy Shannon is going to let this offense loose.
The Florida State Seminoles are one of the most annoying teams to bet on because I remember countless times of backing these guys at home the past few years as mid-range favorites like this and almost always getting burned. Well the Noles did finish their 9 win 2008 season with a whopping 42-13 win over Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl but how much of that momentum can they carry into this game with all their defensive stars gone to the NFL or graduation? This season is entirely in the hands of the offense and I would say those are good hands seeing how they averaged 33.4 points per game in 2008 under the guidance of Offensive Coordinator Jimbo Fisher who did a great job turning things around. I think his offense is going to have just as much success this season because QB Christian Ponder is still here and he should have an even better understanding of this system they have going but the problem with that is that superstar WR Greg Carr is gone and so is second leading WR Preston Parker. The two teams are no doubt going to throw punches at each other like they almost always do and that worries me a bit because Florida State also loses their top RB Antone Smith and despite having great RB's with experience, they don't have the same leadership as Smith who also caught 10 passes last year. Miami's defense is hungry to kick some ass. After allowing 20+ points per game for the second year in a row last season, Randy Shannon has had enough (his teams when he was DC never allowed 20 points) and he has brought in the very experienced John Lovett to manage the defense. Allen Bailey and Marcus Robinson are both back and will terrorize QB's in the ACC all season long (both are young and led the team in sacks last year) and also back are a plethora of talented DB's who are no doubt going to improve on their 3 interceptions in 2008. Wow only 3. It's unusual for Miami to lack a superstar DB because of the guys who have played here in the past but 6 players in this secondary have 6+ career starts and I trust they will do a fine job. Florida State will score some points but they won't score 41 like they did last year because their most experienced players on offense are gone and their RB situation is a mess. Miami has the best Defensive Line in the ACC and the best LB corps and that is going to be a nightmare for Florida State in this game. I think they struggle to keep up with the Canes who are for a statement year.
I can safely say that no two teams have been more disappoiting to me as programs than these two programs over the span of the last three years. I mean these two teams were always ranked in the TOP 10 prior to that, it was a gimme but something went wrong and something could still be wrong unless they both find a way to turn things around this season. Having said that, someone is starting off on the wrong foot because someone is losing this game. I know it bothers Miami players and head Randy Shannon that the Canes are only 1-3 SU in their last four games against Florida State including that wild 41-39 home loss to them in 2008. However that loss was because Miami was down 24-3 at the half and they looked like a bunch of deer caught in the headlights when the game started. Not happening this year with 15 returning starters (compared to only 9 last year). I love the way Miami played down the stretch as underdogs because these kids feed off adversity and they are now 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. They covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 road games and they have covered the spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points so we know this is their range. To counter that the Seminoles have actually gotten a lot better as favorites of this range going 4-1 ATS to finish the year last year when favored by 3.5 to 10 points but does anything else matter when you hear that the Underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams? I didn't think so and Miami is actually 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Tallahassee. I am going huge on the Canes guys.
Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.
Miami 24, Florida State 17
:toast:
WEEK 1 RECAP
South Carolina +5
Oregon +3.5 ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
Tulane +13.5
Minnesota -6.5
Baylor +2
Oklahoma State -5
Connecticut -3.5
Alabama -6.5
Louisiana State -17.5
Mississippi -17
Colorado State +10
Cincinnati +5
Miami +6.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
