HERE'S SOME PRESEASON NOTES SENT TO ME BY MIKE LEE SPORTS THAT MAY BE HELPFUL TO SOME ON THE FORUM.
To quote a title from a preseason article I wrote over 15 years ago, please allow me to plagiarize myself as we head into the prelude to the NFL regular season with a touch of what I call PRESEASON SEASONINGS. The first thought that comes to mind is don’t blow yourself out of the water before the regular season comes along. Put it another way; don’t EVER blow yourself out of the water at all!
So many players wager WAY too much, WAY too soon as they attempt to bail out of situations they never should have gotten into in the first place. It always turns into their worst nightmare. Picture this. As the haze of the previous gambling frenzy dissipates, they wake up with an empty Ripple bottle in their hands, lying next to a disheveled, belching bum just on the south side of the railroad tracks at 4 a.m. Eastern Time in East Hoboken. It’s time to wake up! With that sobering image in your head, let’s now take a look at a couple of handicapping factors that might start building your bankroll before the “real thing” comes along in September.
COACHING TRENDS – Perhaps the most important handicapping factor in the preseason is the coach himself. He instills his will on a team and they respond accordingly, for better or for worse. Here are a few interesting preseason, coaching trends that may be of help the next 4 weeks. All records are ATS (against the spread) during the preseason. As I plagiarize myself, please let me say that I do exactly the same with the following excerpts taken from Marc Lawrence’s excellent preseason PLAYBOOK newsletter!
Baltimore -BILLICK is 6-1 as a dog of +3 or more.
Carolina - FOX is 5-1 in underdog spots.
Dallas - PARCELLS is 18-6 at home (various teams).
Denver – SHANAHAN is 7-1 off a straight up loss as a favorite
Indianapolis – DUNGY is 22-11 to the UNDER.
San Diego – SHOTTENHEIMER is 7-1 after his team allows 30 or more points.
San Francisco – ERICKSON is 5-0 off a straight up loss.
Tampa Bay – GRUDEN is 1-5 off back-to-back wins.
Washington – GIBBS is 9-1 ATS in game #4.
TEAM TRENDS – This factor actually is a part of the coaching trend above, as it reflects a team’s tendency to bounce back or let down after one or more wins or losses. Notice how important it is to use the flip-flop, zig-zag theory, to be a CONTRARION handicapper based on the previous week(s) results. Once again, all records are ATS, against the spread based on past preseason games. Once again, these facts were taken from Marc Lawrence’s preseason PLAYBOOK newsletter.
Buffalo – The Bills are 6-17 after a straight up win.
Chicago – The Bears are 1-7 off a straight up win.
Cincinnati – The Bengals are 2-12 off an ATS win.
Detroit – The Lions are 0-7 ATS off a straight up win
Miami – The Dolphins are 1-8 ATS off back-to-back straight up and ATS wins.
Pittsburgh - The Steelers are 5-0-1 on the road after 2 straight losses.
St Louis – The Rams are 1-9-1 after winning the previous game by 14 or more points.
San Francisco – 5-0 straight up and ATS after back-to-back losses.
Tampa Bay – 5-1 off a loss of 20 or more.
I think you get the idea. Follow the coaches and their philosophies as well as the “against the grain” tendencies of teams after winning and losing in the preseason. Bottom line: Teams and coaches LET UP after they win a game or two in preseason. Coaches and teams BUCKLE UP for business after they lose a game or two in preseason. Have fun and PLEASE, take it easy and when you go to New Jersey, speak kindly of me!
To quote a title from a preseason article I wrote over 15 years ago, please allow me to plagiarize myself as we head into the prelude to the NFL regular season with a touch of what I call PRESEASON SEASONINGS. The first thought that comes to mind is don’t blow yourself out of the water before the regular season comes along. Put it another way; don’t EVER blow yourself out of the water at all!
So many players wager WAY too much, WAY too soon as they attempt to bail out of situations they never should have gotten into in the first place. It always turns into their worst nightmare. Picture this. As the haze of the previous gambling frenzy dissipates, they wake up with an empty Ripple bottle in their hands, lying next to a disheveled, belching bum just on the south side of the railroad tracks at 4 a.m. Eastern Time in East Hoboken. It’s time to wake up! With that sobering image in your head, let’s now take a look at a couple of handicapping factors that might start building your bankroll before the “real thing” comes along in September.
COACHING TRENDS – Perhaps the most important handicapping factor in the preseason is the coach himself. He instills his will on a team and they respond accordingly, for better or for worse. Here are a few interesting preseason, coaching trends that may be of help the next 4 weeks. All records are ATS (against the spread) during the preseason. As I plagiarize myself, please let me say that I do exactly the same with the following excerpts taken from Marc Lawrence’s excellent preseason PLAYBOOK newsletter!
Baltimore -BILLICK is 6-1 as a dog of +3 or more.
Carolina - FOX is 5-1 in underdog spots.
Dallas - PARCELLS is 18-6 at home (various teams).
Denver – SHANAHAN is 7-1 off a straight up loss as a favorite
Indianapolis – DUNGY is 22-11 to the UNDER.
San Diego – SHOTTENHEIMER is 7-1 after his team allows 30 or more points.
San Francisco – ERICKSON is 5-0 off a straight up loss.
Tampa Bay – GRUDEN is 1-5 off back-to-back wins.
Washington – GIBBS is 9-1 ATS in game #4.
TEAM TRENDS – This factor actually is a part of the coaching trend above, as it reflects a team’s tendency to bounce back or let down after one or more wins or losses. Notice how important it is to use the flip-flop, zig-zag theory, to be a CONTRARION handicapper based on the previous week(s) results. Once again, all records are ATS, against the spread based on past preseason games. Once again, these facts were taken from Marc Lawrence’s preseason PLAYBOOK newsletter.
Buffalo – The Bills are 6-17 after a straight up win.
Chicago – The Bears are 1-7 off a straight up win.
Cincinnati – The Bengals are 2-12 off an ATS win.
Detroit – The Lions are 0-7 ATS off a straight up win
Miami – The Dolphins are 1-8 ATS off back-to-back straight up and ATS wins.
Pittsburgh - The Steelers are 5-0-1 on the road after 2 straight losses.
St Louis – The Rams are 1-9-1 after winning the previous game by 14 or more points.
San Francisco – 5-0 straight up and ATS after back-to-back losses.
Tampa Bay – 5-1 off a loss of 20 or more.
I think you get the idea. Follow the coaches and their philosophies as well as the “against the grain” tendencies of teams after winning and losing in the preseason. Bottom line: Teams and coaches LET UP after they win a game or two in preseason. Coaches and teams BUCKLE UP for business after they lose a game or two in preseason. Have fun and PLEASE, take it easy and when you go to New Jersey, speak kindly of me!
