mutiny, happy to share my writeups but these were done on Oct 8 and prices have moved considerably. (The US writeup was done before Klinsmann chose squad without Jozy and before Fabian got sick...)
Guyana vs Mexico
- in match at Mexico City the Mexicans had odds of 1.02-1.03 and despite playing really poorly won 3-1. From there the Guyana club lost at home to both Costa Rica and El Salvador and had a miracle draw away to the Salvadorans while Mexico shutout Costa Rica twice and beat El Salvador away. Guyana have no stadium that meet regulations and would make more money with neutral field so agreed to play match in Houston (USA) which is really Mexico's home away from home. I'd even say there isn't much difference playing in Mexico or Houston for El Tri except for altitude so I can't price this match beyond 1.10 so a solid -2.25 or -2.50 handicap. Perhaps Mexico price is because they've already qualified to final phase but coach selected a normal squad, not B or C team, with tons of talent. As they pack Reliant Stadium for every friendly they play in Houston they will have capacity for the much smaller BBVA Compass Stadium which is the new facility for Houston Dynamo. If anything it will be louder and more intimidating as fans are on top of field unlike Reliant or most Mexican venues. Really the only big name Mexican missing besides Gio is gk Ochoa who has French immigration meeting and cannot attend. Other than that is full squad including 11 Mexican-based players and all the regular suspects from Europe like Chicharito, Moreno, Rodriguez, Guardado. In fact the only players on squad without a cap is Pachuca's Herrera and Leon's Pena. Guyana a horrible defensive team and I just don't see how they'll stay within 2 goals of el Tri. Take straight win as banker and HC with good stake.
Mexico -1.75 5/10 @1.70 12bet/IBC
13.10 01:00
USA vs Antigua and Barbuda
- should be a simple week for USA with matches against A&B away then Guatemala in KC. They are tied with Jamaica and Guate with 7 points and they can wrap up a hexagonal spot with these two expected wins. I attended the home match and USA certainly took A&B very lightly in 3-1 home win but away team also helped by the heavy downpour through most of the match. A&B made up largely of Antigua Barracuda team, the worst squad in 3rd division of American football. Somehow A&B's cricket pitch was approved for these qualifiers and it is said to be in rough shape so that's the only real concern i have for USA not winning by 2+. Match will be heated as Antigua have never hosted USA in any sport before but quality difference is massive and USA will not allow A&B to derail their qualifying. US have been terrible defending free kicks (3 of 4 goals allowed were on fk's) but that is easy to correct. USA likely without mf Donovan but he also missed the last two WC qualifiers and they'll have Michael Bradley ready for this match. Of course Europeans like Dempsey, Johnson, Williams, Altidore are ready to go and the local guys are all playing well. USA lost in Jamaica due to 2 free kick goals and that was first time they failed against a Caribbean team since TnT in 2008...and Puerto Rico in 1979 before that (so just 2 losses to Caribbean teams in 33 years. USA do have a long history of securing 1 goal away wins in qualifying but many of those are 2nd legs after a massive 1st leg win and not when they're in a dogfight to advance. I have trust in Klinsmann and the squad to make things easy on themselves but must survive the first 15 minutes where A&B will be really fired up. After that, it should be all USA
USA -1.75 3/10 @1.67 sbobet
