Midweek thread

[rolltide]

24-10 +36.92
146.75 out - 183.67 in (+25.2%)

3 from CL qualies

Valencia vs Salzburg - (1st leg Valencia 0-1) I'll be shocked if Valencia do not overturn the 0-1 result from away leg by winning with 2 goals of difference here. Salzburg are a good Austrian team but Valencia are top 3 in Spain and the UEFA rankings post the Spanish league #1 and Austrian league #20. Salzburg with the advantage of having their domestic season well underway while La Liga does not start until this weekend, but just can't see Valencia getting knocked out before group stage. Valencia -1.5 goals 3.5/10 @2.07 (pinnacle)

Osasuna vs HSV - (1st leg Osasuna 0-0) HSV with a poor start to the season drawing two relegation contenders. Osasuna have not been impressive in the preseason but they were very solid at home in La Liga last year, 12-3-4. HSV were the top away team in Bundesliga 2005/06 but this is clearly a weaker team than last year and today just sold Dutch center back Boulahrouz to Chelsea. They sold midfielder van Buyten over the summer and defender Vincent Kompany is injured. Osasuna will not repeat their 4th place finish in La Liga this season but should be decent favorites to see HSV off tomorrow. Osasuna -1/4 goal 4/10 @1.87 (pointbet)

Benfica vs Austria Vienna - (1st leg Benfica 1-1) Austria with a perfect 6-0 over/under record in the league and a 1-1 in 1st leg. Austria know they must score but I really don't think they are capable. Benfica gave up just 10 home goals last year in 17 domestic home games so unless they score 3 themselves this should end under. Benfica/Austria under 2.5 goals 3/10 @ 1.87 (pinn/pb)

 

[quantumleap]

I like the Osasuna pick. Hamburg is selling their players yet they are not picking any players up to replace the ones they are selling. It's hard to bet on a team that has such little immediate regard for their line-up.

Good luck and thanks for posting.

 

[rolltide]

Mineros vs Carabobo - Copa Sudamerica tonight - far from my normal analysis but under looks the way to go with this game. Mineros have not been scored upon in the last 277 minutes of play, scoring just 4x in those 3 matches. Carabobo with 1-1, 1-1, 0-3 to start the season. Last meeting on Mar 26 ended 0-0 preceded by a 1-0 Mineros win in January and a 1-0 Mineros win in December. Mineros/Carabobo under 2.5 goals 3/10 @1.91 (pinn/10bet) $300/273

 

[Degz]

24-10 +36.92
146.75 out - 183.67 in (+25.2%)

3 from CL qualies

Valencia vs Salzburg - (1st leg Valencia 0-1) I'll be shocked if Valencia do not overturn the 0-1 result from away leg by winning with 2 goals of difference here. Salzburg are a good Austrian team but Valencia are top 3 in Spain and the UEFA rankings post the Spanish league #1 and Austrian league #20. Salzburg with the advantage of having their domestic season well underway while La Liga does not start until this weekend, but just can't see Valencia getting knocked out before group stage. Valencia -1.5 goals 3.5/10 @2.07 (pinnacle)

Osasuna vs HSV - (1st leg Osasuna 0-0) HSV with a poor start to the season drawing two relegation contenders. Osasuna have not been impressive in the preseason but they were very solid at home in La Liga last year, 12-3-4. HSV were the top away team in Bundesliga 2005/06 but this is clearly a weaker team than last year and today just sold Dutch center back Boulahrouz to Chelsea. They sold midfielder van Buyten over the summer and defender Vincent Kompany is injured. Osasuna will not repeat their 4th place finish in La Liga this season but should be decent favorites to see HSV off tomorrow. Osasuna -1/4 goal 4/10 @1.87 (pointbet)

Benfica vs Austria Vienna - (1st leg Benfica 1-1) Austria with a perfect 6-0 over/under record in the league and a 1-1 in 1st leg. Austria know they must score but I really don't think they are capable. Benfica gave up just 10 home goals last year in 17 domestic home games so unless they score 3 themselves this should end under. Benfica/Austria under 2.5 goals 3/10 @ 1.87 (pinn/pb)

Rolltide: what is your thoughts on Beneficia on the asian @ (-1).. I am not seeing very good odds for this, but I just wanted to know your intake on the matter? Thanks

 

[rolltide]

Valencia won +3.75
Osa lost half -2.00
Benfica lost -3.00
Mineros lost -3.00

25-13 +32.67
158.25 out - 190.92 in (+20.6%)

 

[rolltide]

San Lorenzo vs Banfield - 8:15 EST- SL making a lot of changes especially in MF and attack but their foreign attack, led by Botero, should still be formidable. Banfield with defensive problems, potentially missing 3/4 normal starters and a 1st backup. SL with 8 goals scored in their 3 league matches and Banfield's regular defense was continually exposed against Boca in 1st match of the year. Very avg stats on over/under in h2h with 2/4 going over in last few years. SL/Banfield over 2.5 goals 2.5/10 @2.27 (10bet, 2.26 pinn)

 

[jwblue]

San Lorenzo vs Banfield - 8:15 EST- SL making a lot of changes especially in MF and attack but their foreign attack, led by Botero, should still be formidable. Banfield with defensive problems, potentially missing 3/4 normal starters and a 1st backup. SL with 8 goals scored in their 3 league matches and Banfield's regular defense was continually exposed against Boca in 1st match of the year. Very avg stats on over/under in h2h with 2/4 going over in last few years. SL/Banfield over 2.5 goals 2.5/10 @2.27 (10bet, 2.26 pinn)

I missed the last one. Good call on that one.

IS

 

[rolltide]

Sao Caetano vs Flamengo - Brazil Wed night - very little offense on the field in this game. Fla without Jonatas who was sold and still missing Luizao in attack. Add to that Luizao's backup, Obina, is unavailable and the other attacker has not scored this year and you have a pretty inept offense. Sao Cae missing their most important player, Anderson Lima, and probably midfielder Caninde. Anderson Lima is the guy that takes all their penalties and free kicks so leads the team with 6 goals. They are 7-2 in unders at home and 8-2 in their last 8 games overall while Flamengo are 6-2 in road unders, have gone under in 5 straight and in 8 of their last 11 overall. H2H's show 8 straight games under 2.5 goals. Sao Caetano / Flamengo under 2.5 goals 4/10 @ 1.82 (pinnacle / poinbet / olympic ) $400/328

 

[rolltide]

Atletico PR vs Ponte Preta - Brazil Wed - well you look at the table and it may be surprising for me to bet Atletico but if you follow my thoughts throughout the season this is an obvious bet. Atletico happy to be back home where they've not allowed a goal in 4 matches, 3-1-0, and have played here just once since July 12. Their long road trip produced 4 losses and a draw which vaulted them down into relegation zone. Ponte, to me, are a miserable team and should be certain relegators along with Fortaleza and Santa Cruz. Ponte were gifted 3 points on Saturday in unbelievable fashion after given a penalty in stoppage time. Goias' keeper stopped the penalty which the ref ordered to take again ... so he stopped the penalty again ... only to have the ref order it taken a 3rd time, which was a Ponte charm. I really see massive quality difference b/w these teams and with Atletico back in the Arena, I see little chance of Ponte grabbing points here especially with Ponte's league-worst defense against the beauty striking tandem of Dagoberto and Denis Marques. Atletico-PR 7/10 @1.92 (oly, 1.85 multibet) $700/644

 

[SunDodger]

Nice pick on Valencia rolltide!!

What is your opinion on Ajax -1.5 on Wed.??

 

[quantumleap]

Sao Caetano vs Flamengo - Brazil Wed night - very little offense on the field in this game. Fla without Jonatas who was sold and still missing Luizao in attack. Add to that Luizao's backup, Obina, is unavailable and the other attacker has not scored this year and you have a pretty inept offense. Sao Cae missing their most important player, Anderson Lima, and probably midfielder Caninde. Anderson Lima is the guy that takes all their penalties and free kicks so leads the team with 6 goals. They are 7-2 in unders at home and 8-2 in their last 8 games overall while Flamengo are 6-2 in road unders, have gone under in 5 straight and in 8 of their last 11 overall. H2H's show 8 straight games under 2.5 goals. Sao Caetano / Flamengo under 2.5 goals 4/10 @ 1.82 (pinnacle / poinbet / olympic ) $400/328

I was just going to post the home/road unders but now I won't since you posted first. I'm on this one with you.

Good luck to us.

 

[Pelikan]

Atletico PR 3-0 ; thanks for the winner, rolltide !

 

[jwblue]

Atletico PR vs Ponte Preta - Brazil Wed - well you look at the table and it may be surprising for me to bet Atletico but if you follow my thoughts throughout the season this is an obvious bet. Atletico happy to be back home where they've not allowed a goal in 4 matches, 3-1-0, and have played here just once since July 12. Their long road trip produced 4 losses and a draw which vaulted them down into relegation zone. Ponte, to me, are a miserable team and should be certain relegators along with Fortaleza and Santa Cruz. Ponte were gifted 3 points on Saturday in unbelievable fashion after given a penalty in stoppage time. Goias' keeper stopped the penalty which the ref ordered to take again ... so he stopped the penalty again ... only to have the ref order it taken a 3rd time, which was a Ponte charm. I really see massive quality difference b/w these teams and with Atletico back in the Arena, I see little chance of Ponte grabbing points here especially with Ponte's league-worst defense against the beauty striking tandem of Dagoberto and Denis Marques. Atletico-PR 7/10 @1.92 (oly, 1.85 multibet) $700/644

I needed that. Thanks.

IS

 

[rolltide]

San Lorenzo over won +3.18
Sao Cae under lost -4.00
Atl-PR won +6.44

27-14 +38.29
171.75 out - 210.04 in (+22.3%)

 

[SunDodger]

Nice pick on Atletico, rolltide!! Thanks.