midweek Nov 21-23

[rolltide]

81-55-6 +80.03
594.90 out -> 674.93 in (+13.5%)

CSKA vs Porto - 4th meeting in last 2 years for these teams with previous scores of 0-0, 0-0, and 0-1 (Porto won in Moscow). Porto cannot be in much better form losing only at Arsenal and Braga in their 13 Portugal and CL matches this season. CSKA won the Russian title on Saturday but had to fly 10 hours home, a 7 time zone trip and have a quick turnaround for this one. They are also in good form but are the inferior team here, IMO. Huge match as Arsenal nipping on both of their heels for advancement and one point probably not good enough. While under looks great, I will go with the away team despite the chilly Moscow temperature. Porto +1/2 goal 3/10 @1.80 (pinn)

 

[rolltide]

AEK vs Milan - seems bets are streaming in on AEK and if you take a Greek team to win a CL game, you're a better man than I. Greek teams are simply inferior at this level...take a look at the stats! Uefa rate Greece #16 league and Italy #2 and even though Milan appear to be a mess right now, I think they can win in Athens. Milan a crazy 1-4-4 domestic record in last 9 matches but a solid 3-1-0 CL record, very reminiscent of Liverpool from 2005. The only issue I see is that Milan need just one point to secure a place in the final 16 so if match is drawn late, they have no reason to press for a goal. No matter, I see a class difference b/w Milan and AEK and odds of 2.00+ too good to pass up. AC Milan 4/10 @2.05 (ibc, 2.03 oly/pinn)

 

[themadactuarian]

looks like you will go 2-0...but, maybe you should be prepared for the 1w-1L.
I watched all of Milan's games...play has gone from bad to worst..players not in tune with Ancelotti. Monthy Python flying circus

 

[themadactuarian]

looks like you will go 2-0...but, maybe you should be prepared for the 1w-1L.
I watched all of Milan's games...play has gone from bad to worst..players not in tune with Ancelotti. Monthy Python flying circus

And if the circus is coming to town...over 2 is the play!!!

 

[rolltide]

win or lose I post my reasoning so you can make your mind up on my picks. I've seen so many Greek failures in CL, even at home, I have no choice but to take a strong side with odds over 2.00

Partick Thistle vs Clyde - Scotland 1st Div - stats pick here... - Partick Thistle most in-form team in Div 1 with 5-0-1 13/5 record in last 6 including last weekend win over 3rd place Hamilton. Clyde good home and bad away with just 6 road points in 7 games and two losses against bottom-4 teams. They did have a great draw vs top team Gretna but that was in the midst of Gretna's 1-3-3 spell, and now face a good team in great form. Thistle are 3-1-0 at home against Clyde in last 4 and odds just too high for the form. Partick Thistle 2.5/10 @2.09 (pinn)

 

[rolltide]

Bordeaux vs Galatasaray - look at any of my posts when Gala has played away and you'll see the reason behind this play. I don't particularly trust French teams in Europe but these teams will battle for the UEFA spot and goal differential will matter. Must-win match for Bordeaux and they are very strong at home, 4-1-0 in last 5 French league games whiole Gala just 6-6-2 in Turkish league. French league rated #3 by Uefa and Turkey down at #13. Added significance with Frank Ribery in this one as just last week Fifa rejected Gala's 10 million euro compensation claim that he was held to a contract with Gala before he signed with Bordeaux. Anyway, I like the home win here with a lean to over 2 due to situation. Bordeaux 2.5/10 @ 2.02 (pinn/ibc)

 

[rolltide]

PSG vs Hapoel Tel Aviv - Uefa cup - again, not trusting of French teams but especially PSG who are always one of the most over-rated teams in Europe. You can pile up money just betting against them in France and Europe each week as their reputation precedes their ability. Here they are again, a huge favorite over a team that is more like their equal. Hapoel are 8-1-1 in last two months with only defeat 2-0 against PAO. Israeli league rated quite low compared to France, 23 vs 4, but PSG are not a top French team while Hapoel are a top Israeli squad. In PSG you are looking at the 14th placed French club with just one win in their last 7 matches. I would not be shocked with a draw in this match but would be surprised to see PSG win by 2+, so nice odds for a full goal head start. Hapoel Tel Aviv +1 goal 2/10 @2.27 (pinn)

 

[rolltide]

Toluca vs Colo Colo - Copa Sudamerica - Chilean run will come to an end as they face a better squad in altitude. The 2-1 home win last week will not be enough to advance as the Red Devils are simply better and, if fatigue does not hurt them, will win this match easily. IMO, bookies giving CC way too much respect as odds should be 1.65-1.70 max on Toluca. CC played very well at home with 13-5 shots and 6-1 corners advantage but this is an extremely difficult venue to play in as both El Nacional and San Lorenzo found out in this tourney. I really cannot understand the line as it is so different than what I expected...either I am wrong or the bookies are wrong. Toluca not the cleanest of finishers but have the most talented pair of strikers in the tourney, Vicente and Marioni, and a home advantage second to none. Toluca 7/10 @1.955 (ibc) - odds should be up at pinn and oly soon

 

[mxnprd]

good luck on Toluca. I like them to win.

 

[rolltide]

poor stuff from Toluca


Newcastle vs Celta - Uefa Thur - The Magpies are a thoroughly unimpressive team, now 9 games winless in the EPL with 3 goals scored over that time. Celta are a midtable La Liga club but happen to be the best away side in the league, 4-1-1, including wins at Deportivo and Real Madrid. Newcastle with a host of injuries to important players...Damien Duff is out, central D Craig Moore is out (leaves them with just 3 healthy defenders), Babayaro and Carr also continue to miss while Ameobi is out for the season. Personally I think Newcastle are headed to the Championship as they have no quality aside from Shea Given...I'm not a Parker or Solano fan at all though think a lot of Duff when healthy. NC have yet to lose an UEFA cup match this season but neither have Celta and a draw is fine with me. Celta de Vigo +1/2 goal 5/10 @1.69 (pinn)

 

[rolltide]

UEFA totals - Happy Thanksgiving

Liberec vs Grasshoppers - Liberec a fortress at home and GC in a downtrend scoring just once in last 3 domestic matches. Leagues are very even in strength so I think this will be an even, low-scoring match. Liberec/GC under 2.5 goals 3.5/10 @1.72 (ibc)

Fenerbache vs Palermo - Palermo highest scoring team in Italy and Fener the highest scoring team in Turkey. Both allow an avg of 1 gpg + so I don't think a shutout is going to happen here. Palermo with plenty of reserves playing which decreases confidence but two good offensive teams should show goals. Fener/Palermo over 2.25 goals 4/10 @2.05 (pinn)

a few more to come...

 

[rolltide]

Club Brugge vs Dinamo - despite Dinamo's record in Romanian league local folks report that Dinamo are not really playing well and have several undeserved results. I believe it's that phenomenal 14-1-1 record that has odds increasing on Brugge this week. Dinamo lost at Cluj and then drew poor Unirea in last two travels and miss some important players for this game. Brugge having another nice home season, 5-1-0 with just one goal allowed. Except for their terrible loss at Lokeren they are in good form including an away draw last weekend to unbeaten leaders Genk. Leagues are similar strength, Romania #7 and Belgium #10, and with DInamo missing 4-5 regulars these are good odds for home win. Brugge 5/10 @2.24 (pinn)

 

[rolltide]

Auxerre vs Rangers - neither team all that great offensively as Auxerre have been shutout in 3 of their last 5 games and Rangers have scored less than two goals in 7 of their last 9 in Scotland. Auxerre in very poor form just one win in 8 but French league is superior to Scottish and they will rely on their defense to pull points out here. Auxerre/Rangers under 2 goals 2/10 @2.16 (pinn)

 

[joeyfitzclick]

Duff is a game time decision. Just FYI.

 

[rolltide]

no, he's out ... from nufc.com

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, Sans-Serif]UEFA Cup:
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, Sans-Serif]Celta Vigo (h) [/FONT]
Tonight (Thursday) sees game #3 in our UEFA Cup group campaign when Celta Vigo visit Tyneside for a 7.45pm kickoff.

Cash turnstiles will be available at all four corners of the ground.

NUFC: Moore, Duff, Babayaro and Bernard definitely miss out, with Rossi ineligible to feature in this competition and Dyer being rested for Sunday.

Carr isn't expected to appear and in his presumed absence, Solano has been tipped to fill in at right back (a claim denied elsewhere).

That leaves Taylor, Bramble and Ramage to form the rest of the defence and rookie Paul Huntington to be named as substitute cover.

Emre is available again while Martins suffered no reaction from his comeback at Arsenal. It's not certain though that the Nigerian will make the starting line-up - Sibierski possibly playing a lone striking role in front of a five man midfield.

 

[rolltide]

liberec 2-1 after 20' ... great start :-(

 

[rolltide]

Monterrey vs Toluca - not sure why odds of Monterrey rising back up, but I'm on it now. Toluca were a beaten and tired team on Tuesday night unable to mount an attack once they got down 0-2 vs Colo Colo. So, the idea seems to be to send the reserves to Monterrey and hope they play well enough to hand the second leg to the regulars for advancement. Toluca have kept home their most important players (Vicente, Marioni, Cristante, Da Silva, etc) and will use their reserves + Zinha tonight ... similar team that lost to Jaguares last week. This line, therefore, makes no sense. Jaguares are clearly inferior to Monterrey and Jaguares were -1.25 goals. We're getting Rayados at -3/4? Monterrey one important missing, Walter Erviti but Monterrey won both matches played without him this year, 3-0 vs Atlante & 2-1 vs Tigres. They have been really solid at home and beat Toluca's regulars 2-1 here two weeks ago. There is no better home team in Mexico this year, 7-2-0 21/8 and Toluca have been on a severe downtrend for a month. Monterrey -3/4 goal 7/10 @2.00 (ibc...1.96 pinn)

 

[danlin]

Wow, what a bad week for you :nohead:

all the big bets lost ... Bruegge, Celta, Toluca:Sad Face:

hopefully you have sucess with Monterrey.

 

[Betting4Fun]

PSG vs Hapoel Tel Aviv - Uefa cup - again, not trusting of French teams but especially PSG who are always one of the most over-rated teams in Europe. You can pile up money just betting against them in France and Europe each week as their reputation precedes their ability. Here they are again, a huge favorite over a team that is more like their equal. Hapoel are 8-1-1 in last two months with only defeat 2-0 against PAO. Israeli league rated quite low compared to France, 23 vs 4, but PSG are not a top French team while Hapoel are a top Israeli squad. In PSG you are looking at the 14th placed French club with just one win in their last 7 matches. I would not be shocked with a draw in this match but would be surprised to see PSG win by 2+, so nice odds for a full goal head start. Hapoel Tel Aviv +1 goal 2/10 @2.27 (pinn)

Good call on this one,i played the Israeli team in live play.
Crazy game,aweful defense on both ends,PSG lost 4-2 at home.

 

[rolltide]

horrendous week


midweek 4-8 -24.31

85-63-6 +55.72
642.40 out -> 698.12 in (+8.6%)