midweek 9/26-9/28

[rolltide]

49-36-1 +47.29
352.75 out -> 400.04 in (+13.4%)

two from the Champions League on Wed

Liverpool vs Galatasaray - Turkish teams never fare well away from home in CL matches.
Here's some recent results:
2006 Dynamo Kiev 3-1 Fener
2005 PSV 2-0 Fener
2005 Schalke 2-0 Fener
2005 Milan 3-1 Fener
2004 Lyon 4-2 Fener
2004 Man U 6-2 Fener
2003 Olympiakos 3-0 Gala
2003 Juventus 2-1 Gala
2002 Barcelona 3-1 Gala
2002 Club Brugge 3-1 Gala

The only really positive results were against teams far weaker than the ones listed above...like CSKA Sofia, Loko Moscow, and Spata. Except for the Juventus/Gala result in 2003 every time they step away to play at a team the level of Liverpool, a 2+ goal defeat is the result. UEFA rankings have England 3rd (though they are really #2 since Italy will be dropping) and Turkey at 14. Downside is taking Liverpool to win by 2+ as they are not the most reliable scorers in Europe. Still, class difference should sort itself out as Gala look to be in serious trouble here. Liverpool -1.5 goals 4/10 @2.01 (pinnacle)


Shakhtar vs Olympiakos - Ukraine is dominated by two teams, Shakhtar and Dynamo, and again those teams are tied atop the league standings unbeaten in 8. It's been since 2004 since they were in the CL group stange and, while unconvincing away, they got the job done at home beating Barcelona 2-0, Celtic 3-0, and Brugge 4-1 ... losing to Milan 1-0. Olympiakos is pathetic in away games in CL play, winless in 28 games. Last year they drew Rosenborg and lost at Lyon and Real Madrid. In the previous year they lost at Liverpool and Monaco and drew at Deportivo. Go back to the previous two years and you have a brutal 7-0 loss at Juventus and more shutout losses at Real Sociedad, Galatasaray, Leverkusen, Maccabi Haifa, and Manchester United. Ukrainian league is at a higher level of football than Greek league (Uefa rankings 10 vs 16) and given Oly's incredible road record Shakhtar is the choice. Shakhtar 4.5/10 @1.88 (pinnacle)

 

[quantumleap]

Nice write-ups. I think I'll go with these as well.

Thanks for posting.

 

[fhmesq44]

RT,

You think Liverpool can cover the extra goal? They have only won by 2 in 2 of 10 games this season (coincidentally the last two). Offense has picked up since Kuyt has been starting.

 

[rolltide]

6/10 games have been on the road and I don't expect many teams to win by 2+ away so throw those out. So when you just look at home games they've won by 2+ in 2/4 and Spurs + Newcastle have more quality that Gala. The Maccabi Haifa game would probably be most similar in terms of team strength and they were still finding their way back then in that 2-1 home win. If you look at team ratings from Uefa which take into account several years of play Liverpool are #7 in Europe and Gala are #88. Maccabi Haifa are #109 btw. I would be surprised if they don't pound Gala but Liverpool are well known for matches of 25+ shots with 1 goal. I find the rankings to be pretty accurate except for the occasional outlier like Chelsea #12 (they are certainly top ) or Juve #6 (still top but not #r) but there are major reasons behind that...Chelsea were basically a UEFA cup team before Roman and Juve are, of course, in Serie B now. BTW, I'm a United fan so I wouldn't be betting on Liverpool unless I was pretty sure of the result. The small/medium stake is because it's Liverpool. Guess I'm saying it's more a bet AGAINST Gala than FOR Liverpool if that makes sense

 

[fhmesq44]

Sounds like a fair explanation to me. I know little about Gala but plenty about Liverpool and I always seem to get burned by them. Whether it is laying 1.5 and winning by 1 or betting them to win and drawing. While they win often, they almost always seem to underachieve offensively to get those wins. They frustrate the hell out of me.

 

[JackDee]

"Ukrainian league is at a higher level of football than Greek league (Uefa rankings 10 vs 16) and given Oly's incredible road record Shakhtar is the choice."

Great write ups btw, and it's not just writing down a few seemingly knowledgable facts, it's writting these facts or viewpoints that are meaningful to any bet, and that you do quite well, so kudos for that.

As for the uefa rankings they should be taken with a grain of salt, they are unscientific, and represent just a small fraction of the rankings for soccer that are around on the internet. That said these two leagues are similar with both weakness and strenghts, ukranian league is on the rise however, both from the talent that comes out of them, home talent, and the money spent there. Like I said I d take the home win too, but I am a fan of olympiakos and can't be impartial, plus if olympiakos chose, and this time they will (not like last time around with valencia where I bet the under and got my balls on a platter), but this time like i said in my thread they are playing ultra defensively. That, again said, I got news for you boys on shaktar, good news, as our main defender will not be playing after a late problem in training, news came in couple of hours ago.

So, bol, I am on liverpool too, and shaktar to not lose.

 

[rolltide]

thanks JackDee

also a good chance Rivaldo is out but won't know until tomorrow (maybe you can update us?). Agree these UEFA rankings are unscientific BUT they do decide how many teams from each league play in which tourney and there is actually some statistical analysis behind it, unlike FIFA rankings. Definitely agree that Oly will come out for the 0-0 but then again they are always on target for the away zero in CL...just about if they give up the away goal or not.

 

[fhmesq44]

FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK, I HATE THOSE F*ING SCOUSER BASTARDS. Up 3-0 and they don't cover the god damn line. Fuck Benitez and his idiotic tactical decisions. First he benches an on fire Crouch for Gonzo, now he pulls Kuyt for Gonzo and Hyypia is relegated to the dregs of the bench. WTF is he doing?????????????? I HATE THIS TEAM.

Nice call on Shaktar and on the Liverpool game, you were certainly on the correct side.

 

[rolltide]

both lost. Gawd I despise Liverpool...up 3-0 with a half hour left at home and give 2 back. Shakhtar dominated shots/corners/possession but not scoreboard. not good...sorry

 

[LarryTalbot]

these were the right sides. There is no need to apologize, just try to get back at them the next day.

 

[quantumleap]

FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK, I HATE THOSE F*ING SCOUSER BASTARDS. Up 3-0 and they don't cover the god damn line. Fuck Benitez and his idiotic tactical decisions. First he benches an on fire Crouch for Gonzo, now he pulls Kuyt for Gonzo and Hyypia is relegated to the dregs of the bench. WTF is he doing?????????????? I HATE THIS TEAM.

Nice call on Shaktar and on the Liverpool game, you were certainly on the correct side.

Why in the hell would he bench Crouch after he scored 2 goals?????

 

[fhmesq44]

Why in the hell would he bench Crouch after he scored 2 goals?????

not in this game, although he did take him out in the 90th, I was referring to over the past couple games. Crouch had like 11 goals in his last 10 games or something and he benched him 2 or 3 straight. Now Kuyt has goals in back to back games and he pulls him in the 65th minute for Gonzalez. Makes no sense. Plus, Hyypia hasn't played in weeks. WTF has happened to him?

 

[rolltide]

not done yet with this midweek

Odense vs Hertha Berlin (1st leg 2-2) - Uefa Cup - Hertha very strong in defense, allowing just 2 goals in 5 Germany league games though the 2-2 1st leg makes them need to score here. Odense not a big offensive team, just 3 of 10 domestic matches over 2.5 goals though they are in great form. Denmark is not a strong league compared to Germany and the 2-2 draw will have Odense playing for either 0-0 or 1-1. Cannot see a shootout in this one and will bet the under. Odense/Hertha under 2.5 goals 3.5/10 @ 1.81 (mansion)

 

[Hooligans]

Thats why sometimes i rather lay the high chalk rather than betting the -1.5 or -1 and just get the straight up win! I had Liverpool -300 striaght up to win! :toast:

both lost. Gawd I despise Liverpool...up 3-0 with a half hour left at home and give 2 back. Shakhtar dominated shots/corners/possession but not scoreboard. not good...sorry

 

[rolltide]

Groningen vs Partizan - Groningen OK start to season, 3-2-0, and 2-1-0 home and were 13-3-1 at home last year. They must overturn a 2 goal deficit but should be possible as they allowed just 9 home goals all last year and a 2-0 win is very possible. Partizan lost last two domestic away matches 1-0 and Serbian football not nearly at the level of Dutch football. Just a small bet because any goal for Partizan means Groningen may lose motivation. Groningen 2.5/10 @2.02

 

[rolltide]

a little back today but still a losing midweek. Hooligans, you really need to diversify your bookies...at minimum adding mansion and pinnacle cause all those bets at SIA are usually at $hitty odds and costing you money (not to mention their C- rating)


midweek 2-2 -3.11
Liverpool 3-2 -4.00
Shakhtar 2-2 -4.50
Odense 1-0 +2.84
Groningen 1-0 +2.55

51-38-1 +44.18
367.25 out -> 411.43 in (+12%)

 

[fhmesq44]

Nice day, had the second game w/ you.