Michigan International Speedway - The Carfax 400 (News & Notes)

HacheMan · Aug 11, 2010

The Carfax 400
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Michigan International Speedway's two mile tri-oval for the 23rd race of the 2010 season, the Carfax 400. NASCAR Fantasy expert Brian Brown analyzed past performances, season trends, and spoke to NASCAR contacts to provide you with the most accurate fantasy preview of Sunday's race.

When: Sunday, August 15, 2010; 1:16 p.m./et.

Weather: Partly cloudy with a high around 81; wind out of the W at 10 mph. There is a 10 percent chance of precipitation.

The Track: Michigan International Speedway

MIS is a 2.0 mile tri-oval. It has 18 degree banking in the turns and 12 degree banking in the tri-oval.

Key to Race: A ROUSH HENDRICK BATTLE

Michigan International Speedway is a race that tends to become fuel mileage race so watch for drivers to conserve fuel at every opportunity and we expect some drivers will pit off-sequence early in the race.

Qualifying Procedures:

47 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 spots. Cars not in the top 35 in the 2010 owner point standings will have to qualify based on speed. Starting positions 1-43 will be determined during qualifying on Friday, August 13 at 3:10 pm/et.

Fantasy Cheat Sheet:

Top 5

No. 2 Kurt Busch: Kurt has been in the lead in over nine percent of the laps he has run at MIS during his career. With the success he has had this season we like his chances.
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards has finished in the top 10 in 10 of his 12 career starts at MIS, including two wins. He is a great option.
No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has led 427 laps in the past seven races at MIS. He had the top car on the track last season and could finally get his first win at MIS on Sunday.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle has nine top 10 finishes in 15 career starts at MIS. He will have a top 10 car once again.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has finished worse than 14th just once in nine career starts at MIS. He won the June race at the track and is a strong pick again this weekend.

6 to 10

No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has 18 top five finishes in 35 career starts at MIS. He should finish just outside the top five this weekend.
No. 14 Tony Stewart: Stewart has finished in the top 10 in 12 of the last 16 MIS races. He will have the No. 14 car back inside the top 10 again this weekend.
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick has averaged a 14th place finish the past eight visits to Brooklyn. With the season he is having he is a must use this weekend.
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Rowdy isn't a huge fan of Michigan International Speedway. He will be satisfied with a top 10 run.
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has had just two finishes worse than 17th in 20 careers starts at the track. He will be a fast shoe this weekend.

11 to 20

No. 5 Mark Martin: Martin won a fuel mileage race at MIS last year. He should be fast this weekend, but we don't see him taking the checkers again.
No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior won the June race at MIS in 2008 and has led at least a lap in eight of the last 10 races at the track. This will be a respectable finish for the No. 88 team.
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Kahne has been hit-or-miss at MIS the past six races. He isn't worth using as anything more than a third driver on most fantasy teams.
No. 20 Joey Logano: Logano has been strong at MIS so far in his young career. We expect he will be fast again on Sunday.
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya had his first and only taste of success at MIS last June. There are much better weekends to have him on your roster.
No. 1 Jamie McMurray: McMurray had a couple of his better finishes of the 2008 season at MIS. This is a good weekend to sneak the No. 1 back car into your lineup.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton finally appeared to figure MIS out this June. Prior to the race he had been very average at the track. There are much better weeks to use him.
No. 39 Ryan Newman: Newman has finished in the top 15 in seven of his last 14 starts at MIS. He should qualify well, but we doubt he will have quite enough speed during the race for another top 15 finish.
No. 33 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has averaged just a 21st place finish at MIS during the past eight trips to the track. He is a bit of a risky choice this weekend.
No. 12 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski, a Michigan native, is going to be fast this weekend. He is worth taking a chance on.

21 to 30

No. 43 A.J. Allmendinger: A.J. finally cracked the top 20 at MIS this June. He is one of our favorite sleeper picks.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Reutimann brought a fast car to two of the last three MIS races. We expect he will use a similar setup and another top 20 finish could result.
No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.: Truex Jr. finished second at MIS in both 2007 races, but has struggled at the track since. He will be a middle of the packer again this weekend.
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Sadler has looked great three of the past five MIS races. He should challenge for a top 20 finish on Sunday.
No. 83 Reed Sorenson: Sorenson hasn't had an abundance of success at MIS. He isn't worth taking a chance on.
No. 77 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish Jr. had an awesome run at MIS last August. He could be a sleeper this weekend.
No. 98 Paul Menard: Menard has averaged a 24th place finish at MIS during his career. He is a solid fourth or fifth driver in all leagues.
No. 6 David Ragan: Ragan cracked the top 10 in both races at MIS during the 2008 season, but he struggled at the track the past three races. He isn't worth the gamble.
No. 78 Regan Smith: Smith has averaged a top 30 finish at MIS during his career. He is an option for those of you that are desperate for a bargain pick.
No. 82 Scott Speed: Speed has averaged a 33rd place finish at MIS during his career. This isn't the best weekend to use him.

31 to 35

No. 7 Robby Gordon: Gordon has been a top 25 finisher in five of the past nine races at MIS. He is a bit of sleeper pick on Sunday.
No. 47 Marcos Ambrose: The Terrific Tasmanian is struggling at all tracks that don't have right-hand turns. Avoid him.
No. 71 Bobby Labonte: Labonte has just one top 10 finish in his last 12 starts at MIS. He isn't a fantasy choice.
No. 37 David Gilliland: Gilliland finish between 25 and 35. That is a guarantee.
No. 21 Bill Elliott: The Wood Brothers have a storied history at MIS. Look for Awesome Bill to surprise some people this weekend.

Field Fillers

No. 13 Max Papis
No. 38 Travis Kvapil
No. 55 Michael McDowell
No. 26 TBD
No. 34 Kevin Conway
No. 09 Landon Cassill
No. 36 Casey Mears
No. 66 Dave Blaney
No. 87 Joe Nemechek
No. 64 Tony Raines
No. 46 J.J. Yeley
No. 32 Mike Bliss

Brownie's Picks

Top Four:

1. Kurt Busch
2. Carl Edwards
3. Jimmie Johnson
3. Greg Biffle

Sleepers:

1. A.J. Allmendinger
2. Sam Hornish Jr.

Bust of the Week:

Clint Bowyer

HacheMan · Aug 13, 2010

Michigan: Carfax 400
Track history: Built in 1968 by Lawrence H. LoPatin, a Detroit land developer, at a cost of about $6 million, Michigan International Speedway is a 2-mile asphalt D-shaped oval located on 1400 acres in the Irish Hills of southeastern Michigan. Charles Moneypenny, designer of the 2.5-mile Daytona International Speedway, designed the Michigan oval as well. It has 18-degree banking in turns and 12-degree banking in the tri-oval, which is part of the 3,600-foot frontstretch. The 2,242-foot backstretch is banked five degrees. After LoPatin overextended himself and filed bankruptcy, Roger Penske took over ownership of Michigan International Speedway in 1973 and invested millions in improving the facility.

In 1999, Penske teamed up with International Speedway Corporation to jointly own the speedway. MIS seated 25,000 fans when it opened. Every few years grandstands were added bringing it up to its current capacity of 137,243 seats. The track was resurfaced in 1977, 1986 and again in 1995. In 2004, Steel and Foam Energy Reduction (SAFER) walls were added to the track.

In June 2010, MIS unveiled its new suite/media center building along pit road, which features state-of-the-art accommodations for its suite customers and visiting media members.

Since the corners are so long, drivers are in the gas hard all throughout the race. This may contribute to the engine failures seen in past races at MIS. It's not unusual to see cars racing 3 or 4 and sometimes 5-wide on the long straightaways.

First Michigan Cup race: Donnie Allison clocked a 160.135 mph lap in the No. 27 Banjo Matthews Ford to start up front for the 1969 Motor State 500. He blew an engine 115 laps into the 250 lap event. Cale Yarborough started the famous Wood Brothers No. 21 Mercury Cyclone fourth in the field of 38 cars and went on to win the event. He beat David Pearson's No. 17 Ford by five car lengths and earned a $17,625 payday.

June 14, 2009: Mark Martin won the 2009 LifeLock 400 by conserving enough fuel to outlast the first and second-place cars and improved from the third position to lead the final lap in the No. 5 Kellogg's Chevrolet. On the white flag lap, 48-Jimmie Johnson ran out of fuel turning over the lead to 16-Greg Biffle. Biffle, in turn, ran out on the final lap coasting in to a 5th place finish. Johnson (led a race high 146 laps) finished in 22nd. Pole-sitter, 83-Brian Vickers, brought his Toyota home in 9th.

August 16, 2009: The 200-lap 2009 Carfax 400 started with 83-Brian Vickers on the pole but he was passed by 5-Mark Martin for the lead on the first lap. After about 8 laps the race was red-flagged for about 20 minutes due to rain. 48-Jimmie Johnson looked to be the eventual winner, having led 133 laps, but the race turned into a fuel mileage event. Around lap 169, all the leaders were trying to conserve fuel. Johnson was in the lead and ran out on the last lap (finished 33rd). Vickers stretched the fuel in the No. 83 and picked up his 2nd career NSCS victory.

June 13, 2010: Kurt Busch qualified the No. 2 Dodge on the pole for the 200-lap 2010 Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400. He led 60 laps and finished 3rd. Denny Hamlin started 7th and ran strong for most of the race. On the lap 92 restart, while in the lead, his No. 11 Toyota couldn't get started. It was thought to be air in the fuel line. He recovered, led the most laps (123), and went on to win his 5th race (2nd consecutive... he won Pocono the prior week) of 2010.

Your fantasy game won't allow you to pick all track favorites so Mid-Pack Attack is here to help. A mid-packer may not win the race but has as good a shot at a top 15 finish as track favorites Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson. There were 48 cars on the preliminary entry list for this weekend's Cup race. Here are our picks for Sunday's Carfax 400 in Brooklyn, Michigan.

Mid-Pack picks

We picked Dale Earnhardt Jr. at MIS in June and he came through with a 7th place. NASCAR loop statistics has him ranked 4th in their Green Flag Passes category over the last 11 Michigan races (passed 821 times). He's also 5th in their Quality Passes category (passed 492 cars while running in the top 15). Only top track favorite Edwards has scored more championship points than Earnhardt over those 11 races. Ten of those starts resulted in 18th or better finishes, including a victory in the June 2008 event.

Joey Logano has just three Cup starts at the Irish Hills track but his last two were both top tens. He spent most of the June 2009 race in the top 5, running as high as second. In his lone Nationwide Series start here he finished in 7th place. While he only has two top tens in the last six races this season, we think this is a good week to put "sliced bread" on your team.

Now that Kasey Kahne knows where he's going to drive for the next couple of years (2011 with Red Bull Racing, 2012 Hendrick Motorsports), he can get back to finishing on a high-note for Richard Petty Motorsports. He's 4th best in championship points scored at MIS over the last two Cup Series starts. The June 2006 winner at this track finished runner-up here in June of this year. Kahne has a 17.8 average finish for the 22 races run so far this season. Over the last five he's bettered that to an 11.4 average finish. He should maintain that average this weekend.

Sam Hornish Jr., from nearby Defiance, Ohio, considers MIS his home track.
The former IndyCar driver earned 5 top tens in 6 starts at this track in that series. To test the waters in stock cars, he made one ARCA start for Penske Racing at MIS in 2007. He started on the pole and finished 2nd. In the Cup Series, his best finish was 5th in this race last year. We're going deep with him this week since we think he's got momentum working. He's coming off an 11th at Pocono and a 14th at The Glen. Hornish is 28th in the points so he should be a bargain buy in most games.