Vidanta Vallarta Course Info & Key Stats
Par: 71Distance: 7,456 (about 150 yards longer than the average par 71)
Fairway Width: 40.4 yards (wide; 72nd of 80)
Average Green Size: N/A
Green Type: Paspalum
Stimpmeter: N/A
Recent Winning Scores: -17
Recent Cut Lines: Even
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate, Total Strokes Gained
Vidanta Vallarta is a long par 71 with the longest average par 4s and par 5s on the PGA Tour. Along with that length, we get wide fairways that aren't problematic to miss based on last year's data.
It also isn't particularly hard to get up and down from within 30 yards of the green.
What this means, then, is that ball-striking wins out.
Among the top 10 by strokes gained: tee to green last year, only two were outside the top 25 in the actual tournament, and both were basically the worst putters in the field: Charles Howell (T33 finish; 4th in T2G; 74th in putting) and Kevin Na (T42; 9th; 72nd).
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
Golfers who finished T15 or better in the field last year and are in the field this year include:Winner: Jon Rahm
T2: Tony Finau, Brandon Wu
T6: Alex Smalley, David Lipsky, Cameron Champ
10th: Patrick Rodgers
T11: Nate Lashley, Martin Trainer
T13: Chez Reavie, Grayson Murray
T15: Stephan Jaeger, Lanto Griffin, Peter Malnati, Adam Long, Andrew Novak, Kelly Kraft
Win Simulations for the Mexico Open at Vidanta
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.win percent top 10 percent make cut current odds
| Jon Rahm | $12,600 | 28.1% | 72.9% | 93.0% | +260 |
| Tony Finau | $12,300 | 12.8% | 63.7% | 88.2% | +850 |
| Wyndham Clark | $11,600 | 4.6% | 36.6% | 75.8% | +1900 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $11,200 | 2.6% | 25.8% | 67.8% | +2800 |
| Gary Woodland | $11,300 | 2.4% | 21.1% | 61.2% | +2400 |
| Byeong Hun An | $11,100 | 2.0% | 18.1% | 58.7% | +3200 |
| Beau Hossler | $10,300 | 2.0% | 17.6% | 57.7% | +3800 |
| Maverick McNealy | $10,900 | 1.9% | 25.0% | 67.2% | +4700 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $10,100 | 1.9% | 20.0% | 63.9% | +3600 |
| Alex Noren | $10,800 | 1.6% | 23.7% | 66.8% | +4700 |
| Lee Hodges | $9,500 | 1.5% | 16.5% | 56.7% | +6000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | $10,600 | 1.3% | 14.8% | 54.5% | +4100 |
| Alex Smalley | $10,400 | 1.3% | 17.6% | 59.6% | +6500 |
| Joseph Bramlett | $9,300 | 1.3% | 15.4% | 58.2% | +4700 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $10,200 | 1.3% | 16.1% | 56.5% | +5500 |
| Luke List | $9,500 | 1.2% | 12.5% | 51.5% | +6500 |
| Andrew Putnam | $10,500 | 1.2% | 18.9% | 63.4% | +5500 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $11,500 | 1.2% | 11.9% | 53.6% | +2400 |
| William Gordon | $9,700 | 1.1% | 14.1% | 52.8% | +7000 |
| Aaron Rai | $10,000 | 1.1% | 13.0% | 55.2% | +5500 |
| Robby Shelton | $9,800 | 1.1% | 16.8% | 59.5% | +7500 |
| Ben Martin | $9,900 | 1.1% | 13.6% | 52.8% | +6500 |
| Seonghyeon Kim | $9,700 | 0.9% | 12.3% | 55.1% | +7500 |
| Brandon Wu | $9,900 | 0.9% | 12.6% | 54.0% | +6500 |
| Matt Wallace | $9,600 | 0.9% | 13.0% | 55.4% | +7500 |
| Garrick Higgo | $9,800 | 0.8% | 10.8% | 49.8% | +7500 |
| Eric Cole | $9,100 | 0.8% | 11.0% | 49.8% | +10000 |
| MJ Daffue | $9,200 | 0.7% | 11.2% | 49.0% | +9000 |
| Alejandro Tosti | $7,600 | 0.6% | 11.4% | 53.9% | +20000 |
| Callum Tarren | $7,900 | 0.6% | 11.3% | 49.9% | +15000 |
| Lanto Griffin | $9,000 | 0.5% | 8.2% | 44.6% | +9000 |
| Harry Hall | $9,600 | 0.5% | 9.7% | 51.0% | +6500 |
| Akshay Bhatia | $9,000 | 0.5% | 8.1% | 45.8% | +11000 |
| Patton Kizzire | $9,200 | 0.5% | 8.1% | 45.4% | +9000 |
| Vincent Norrman | $8,800 | 0.5% | 6.2% | 44.8% | +12000 |
| Peter Malnati | $8,800 | 0.5% | 9.5% | 50.5% | +12000 |
| Michael Kim | $8,800 | 0.5% | 8.7% | 49.8% | +12000 |
| Benjamin Taylor | $8,300 | 0.4% | 9.3% | 50.6% | +18000 |
| Dylan Wu | $9,100 | 0.4% | 7.7% | 43.7% | +9000 |
| Mark Hubbard | $9,400 | 0.4% | 8.8% | 49.0% | +7500 |
| Kevin Tway | $8,100 | 0.4% | 7.9% | 46.8% | +21000 |
| Greyson Sigg | $8,500 | 0.4% | 8.1% | 47.9% | +15000 |
| David Lipsky | $9,300 | 0.4% | 8.2% | 47.4% | +9000 |
| Austin Eckroat | $8,600 | 0.4% | 6.6% | 44.0% | +13000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Mexico Open at Vidanta
Believe it or not, Jon Rahm at +260 is around where he should be, so if you're into betting a winner at +260, I think you can justify it this week with Rahmbo.I'm more interested in Tony Finau at +850 between the two. He was the runner-up last year and led the field in strokes gained: tee to green at Vidanta Vallarta.
With some actual value on the two heavy, heavy favorites, that naturally doesn't bode well for finding value on long shots and in the mid-range.
Alejandro Tosti bombs it off the tee and has had some good results on the Korn Ferry Tour lately but is someone I'm still really only targeting for top-20 status rather than an outright.
Other interesting names with reasonable betting odds include Wyndham Clark (+1900), Maverick McNealy (+4700), Lee Hodges (+6000), Alex Smalley (+6500), Luke List (+6500), and Ben Martin (+6500).
