Mel Kiper's Big Board: Ranking top 2018 prospects

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Mel Kiper's Big Board: Ranking top 2018 prospects
Melanie kiper Jr
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In this edition of my Big Board for the 2018 NFL draft, there are a few changes in the top 10, three new prospects make the top 25, and an ACC defender leaps 15 spots.

A reminder about my Big Board:

The write-ups here won't change much week to week.

I'm projecting to the NFL. This is about much more than stats. My projections are based on size, athletic ability, statistics and what I hear from people around the league.

Speaking of size, what's listed here is provided by the schools. These numbers could vary greatly when players show up at the NFL combine. True height and weight really matter for almost every position.

Note: One asterisk denotes the player is a junior, and two asterisks denote the player is a redshirt sophomore for the 2017 season.


1. *Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Previous rank: 1

Being out of the Heisman race doesn't affect Barkley's NFL future. He is a lights-out athlete who shows tremendous balance with a great lower body and quick feet. He rushed for 1,496 yards and 18 touchdowns last season and 1,076 yards as a freshman. He has 1,728 yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns this season. Barkley (5-foot-11, 230 pounds) also will help in the passing game. He has 47 catches this season after having 48 in his first two seasons at Penn State. I think he'll run under a 4.4 40-yard dash and test well at the combine. Barkley could be a top-five pick in 2018, and he's going to get an elite grade from me, barring injury.



2. *Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

Previous rank: 2

I said last month that the gap had closed between Rosen and Sam Darnold, and I'm ready to put Rosen above the USC signal-caller. Coming off a stellar freshman season in 2015, Rosen was a sleeper pick to win the Heisman Trophy last season. Things didn't go well, as he had only 10 touchdown passes in six starts before injuring his shoulder and missing the rest of the season. He had a great start to the 2017 season and led for a while in touchdown passes and passing yards. Then he missed a game with a concussion and was pulled late in the second half of UCLA's win over Cal "for precautionary reasons" after taking a few big hits. He's expected to be back for the Bruins' bowl game, however. The 6-4, 218-pound Rosen throws a great ball and has rare arm talent. There aren't many quarterbacks who can make the throws he does, and I expect the junior to be picked in the top five if he enters the draft.


3. **Derwin James, S, Florida State

Previous rank: 3

James played only two games in 2016 after suffering a torn meniscus in his left knee. The former five-star recruit was terrific as a freshman for the Seminoles, with 91 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. FSU has had a miserable season after losing starting quarterback Deondre Francois in the opener, but James is a real talent. The 6-3, 211-pound James has two interceptions with 11 pass breakups, and he's second on the team in tackles (72). There's a good chance he will be the highest-rated defender come April's draft.


4. *Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama

Previous rank: 4

Fitzpatrick (6-1, 203 pounds) has played both corner and safety at Alabama, and I think he'll be a safety at the next level, though I'm not ruling out a fit at cornerback somewhere. The versatility is a plus, and coach Nick Saban loves him. Fitzpatrick is really a defensive coordinator's dream: a modern-day, big corner who plays safety. He's versatile enough to line up in the slot and lock down receivers, but he can also be a center fielder. Fitzpatrick had eight interceptions from 2015-16 (including four that were returned for touchdowns), so he has elite ball skills. He isn't afraid to make a tackle, either, which is why I think he'll be a top-five pick in April.


5. **Sam Darnold, QB, Southern California

Previous rank: 5

The rumblings about Darnold returning to school -- remember, he's only a third-year sophomore -- have lingered. He has played better down the stretch, but it was an up-and-down season. He has thrown 12 interceptions and has lost seven fumbles (plus he fumbled three other times). His 19 turnovers are the most in FBS. He had an outstanding 2016 season but just hasn't matched it. Now, I think Darnold has a chance to be special, and I believe in his talent long term. Darnold has a big frame (6-4, 225 pounds), makes quick decisions and is an accurate, natural passer. He completed 67.2 percent of his passes last season and ranked second in the nation in Total QBR (86.8), but he is down to 63.3 percent and 73.3 this season. If Darnold enters the draft, I think he and Rosen will be in the discussion for the No. 1 pick.


6. *Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

Previous rank: 6

Allen (6-5, 233 pounds) is super raw, but he can really sling it. His numbers weren't great last season (28 touchdown passes, 15 interceptions while completing 56 percent of his passes), and his numbers aren't great this season (13 touchdown passes, six interceptions while completing 56.2 percent of his passes), but NFL teams will take into account the talent around him. The Wyoming offense lost 47 touchdowns from last season's team, along with its center. I think Allen's numbers will be much better in an NFL offense with NFL players. He missed the Cowboys' final two regular-season games with a shoulder injury, but he might return for their bowl game. Hopefully he can get 100 percent healthy.

7. Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

Previous rank: 7

I wrote about Chubb's performance against Florida State earlier this season; he was dominant with two sacks and a forced fumble. Chubb (6-4, 260 pounds) could have entered the 2017 draft and been in the first-round discussion. He had 10.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss last season after posting 5.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss in 2015. Chubb shows good takeoff from the edge as a pass-rusher, and he has an excellent mix of speed and power. He has 10 sacks and 24 tackles for loss this season. Chubb is the top-ranked pass-rusher in this class, but he isn't on the level of Myles Garrett; I don't think we'll be talking about him as a potential No. 1 pick. Check out Chubb's strip sack against Boston College in the clip above.


8. *Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

Previous rank: 9

Nelson and Mike McGlinchey form the best left side of an O-line in college football. At 6-5, 330 pounds, Nelson just causes destruction in the interior. I wrote last year that he was entertaining to watch, and you just don't say that about guards. Nelson is a dominant run-blocker who is powerful at the point of attack and also athletic enough to pull and get into space. I've seen enough from his 2017 season to put him in the first-round range for next year's draft.


9. *Arden Key, OLB, LSU

Previous rank: 8

The 6-6, 265-pound Key is a fantastic pass-rushing talent who can close quickly on quarterbacks. He had 17 sacks in his first two seasons at LSU, including 12 last season. He needs to improve against the run, but that should come in time as he adds weight to his frame. After taking a leave of absence from the LSU team in the spring, Key had shoulder surgery and missed the beginning of the season, and he has played in only eight games. A knee injury kept him out of the Tigers' last two games. He has four sacks, 5.5 tackles for loss and 33 total tackles.


10. Harold Landry, OLB, Boston College

Previous rank: 11

After leading the nation in sacks (16.5) last season, Landry could have been a late first- or early second-round pick if he had entered the 2017 draft. He also had 22 tackles for loss. There is value in his versatility. The 6-3, 257-pound Landry can play outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense or end in a 4-3. He missed the Eagles' last four games of the regular season with an ankle injury, but he has five sacks -- including three in a tough loss to Virginia Tech -- and 8.5 tackles for loss in eight games.


11. **Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson

Previous rank: 12

I wrote about Ferrell's performance at the beginning of this month. He had five tackles for loss in the win over NC State, marking the second time in three games that he had at least that many tackles for loss. He was dominant in a 3.5-sack performance at Syracuse. He has since added 3.5 tackles for loss and two sacks in the final three regular-season games. Ferrell is solid against the run and disruptive in the backfield, and he makes hustle plays. He came on strong as a redshirt freshman last season, with six sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss. At 6-5, 260 pounds, he has the size that makes scouts turn their heads, and he's quick off the edge. He's a prototypical 4-3 end in the NFL. As a third-year sophomore, Ferrell has a decision to make about whether to enter this draft. With another year of developing his pass-rushing moves, he could be in the mix for the top three overall.


12. *Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

Previous rank: 15

With 161 catches and 14 touchdown receptions in his first two collegiate seasons, the cat-quick Ridley (6-1, 188 pounds) has been one of the nation's top wide receivers since he stepped onto the field. What I really like about him is his competitiveness. He's a nightmare to try to tackle in the open field. He torched Florida State's talented secondary in the season opener, with seven catches for 82 yards and a touchdown, and he has 55 catches and 896 receiving yards for the season. He's the 2018 draft's clear No. 1 receiver right now. Check out his route on this clip of a 66-yard touchdown catch and run:

13. *Tremaine Edmunds, OLB, Virginia Tech

Previous rank: NR

At 6-5, 250 pounds, Edmunds is a gifted athlete and physical specimen, and he lives in the backfield. A year after recording 106 total tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, he has 102 total tackles, 14 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks this season. Edmunds isn't a tradition linebacker; he could play inside in a pinch and disrupt some throwing lanes, and he could also play outside and pressure quarterbacks. He even does a good job covering pass-catchers out of the backfield. He's an impressive athlete, and you could make case that Edmunds has the most upside of any linebacker in this class. His brother, Terrell, is also an NFL prospect as a safety.


14. *Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama

Previous rank: 10

Finally healthy after being hampered by a groin injury, Evans is playing well for a defense loaded with NFL talent. He played outside early in his career at Alabama, and the versatility will help at the next level. Evans (6-3, 234 pounds) can also rush the passer; he has 14 career sacks. The Crimson Tide have a long history of producing talented linebackers, including Reuben Foster in the 2017 draft, and Evans is next up. He has 10.5 tackles for loss this season.


15. *Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

Previous rank: 21

I said before the season that I think Ward has a chance to be the next great Ohio State cover corner and first-round pick. He's polished. He didn't have an interception last season, but he plays the ball well and showed good instincts in coverage, which was proven by his nine pass breakups. He has an interception this season, as well as 13 more pass breakups. Listed at 5-10, 191 pounds, Ward plays bigger than that. I really liked what I saw on his 2016 tape, even as the Buckeyes had two other corners who went in the first round of the 2017 draft.


16. Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

Previous rank: 13

You might remember McGlinchey from my preseason Big Board last season. He decided to remain in school for his senior year. McGlinchey is a massive athlete (6-8, 315 pounds) who looks like a tight end with pads on. He was dominant from the left side in the rout of USC in October. He plays with solid technique and he can get to the second level for combo blocks, all while driving defenders off the ball in the run game. He played right tackle in 2015, then replaced first-round pick Ronnie Stanley on the left side last season, and he has stayed at left tackle in 2017. The versatility will help McGlinchey in the NFL, where I think he's a lock for the first round in 2018.


17. *Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma

Previous rank: 14

I wrote about Brown earlier this season, when the 6-8, 345-pound left tackle was outstanding in the Sooners' win at Ohio State. He helped protect OU quarterback Baker Mayfield from a defense that is loaded with future NFL talent. Brown is nimble for a big man, getting to the second level with ease. He has great feet and can easily slide outside to pick up blitzing linebackers. Don't worry about Brown having to move to the right side in the NFL. I think he's a left tackle all the way.


18. *Connor Williams, OT, Texas

Previous rank: 16

After digging into Williams' 2016 tape, I really liked what I saw. He's a pure left tackle prospect with great feet and balance, and he just didn't get beaten in pass protection. But Williams (6-6, 315 pounds) didn't have a great game to open the season against Maryland. He was beaten in that game, and that was discouraging. Williams suffered a sprained MCL and PCL in his left knee in the loss at USC and missed seven games, returning for the Horns' final two games. He has decided to sit out the team's bowl game, however, after declaring for the draft, which is the right move if he isn't fully healthy.


19. *Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson

Previous rank: 18

Clemson just keeps producing first-round picks. Wilkins could be next. At 6-4, 300 pounds, he moves inside and outside for the Tigers. He is a Jonathan Allen-type lineman. He could be an end in a 3-4 defense or a 3-technique tackle in a 4-3. Wilkins had 3.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss last season, and he had four sacks in the 2017 regular season. Clemson faces Miami in the ACC title game and could make the College Football Playoff as the No. 1 seed with a victory.


20. *Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

Previous rank: 22

Jackson has been the best corner in college football this season, and he showed it by picking off Ohio State's J.T. Barrett three times in an upset win earlier this month. Jackson was phenomenal and showed off his stellar hands. He has seven total interceptions and has broken up 18 passes this season, his first as a starter. The 6-1, 185-pound Jackson has also pitched in on punt returns, though he hasn't broken off any big returns.

21. *Vita Vea, DT, Washington

Previous rank: 23

At 6-4, 346 pounds, Vea is more than a space-eater. He has some explosion and quickness off the ball and can penetrate along the interior. He had five sacks and 39 total tackles last season, and he has 3.5 sacks this season. I think Vea can be an every-down player in the NFL, not just a two-down tackle. He reminds me of Haloti Ngata, who had three consecutive NFL seasons with at least five sacks. Check out the clip above of him using his power and showing off his athleticism to knock down a Josh Rosen throw.


22. *Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado

Previous rank: 20

Oliver was the Buffaloes' third corner last season behind Day 2 draft picks Chidobe Awuzie and Ahkello Witherspoon, and his talent shows on film. He's long and athletic (6-1, 190 pounds). He competes on the Colorado track team and has twice been All-Pac-12 in the decathlon. He also contributes as a punt returner; he had a TD on a return in 2016. Oliver has two interceptions and 13 pass breakups this season. His father, Muhammad, was a ninth-round pick by the Broncos in 1992.


23. Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

Previous rank: 19

The Wolverines had a senior-laden defensive line in 2016, and Hurst didn't start. But the 6-2, 282-pound tackle had 4.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss and stood out while consistently splitting double-teams and getting into the backfield. Now a starter, Hurst has 5.5 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss this season.


24. *Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

Previous rank: NR

At 6-2, 319 pounds, Payne is a consistent and reliable presence for the Crimson Tide. He isn't going to put up huge numbers on the stat sheet -- he has only three career sacks -- but he's consistently beating interior offensive linemen and getting good push, and he's a solid prospect with some upside.


25. Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

Previous rank: 25

Former Stanford star Zach Ertz has developed into one of the best tight ends in the league, and Goedert reminds me of him. Their size is comparable (Goedert is 6-5, 260 pounds), and they both had huge numbers in college. After putting up 92 catches for 1,293 yards and 11 touchdowns last season for the Jackrabbits, Goedert has 60 catches for 966 yards and five touchdowns this season. He is the clear No. 1 tight end in the 2018 draft.
 

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