Masters (-3.37 units ytd)

ApolloKid · Apr 5, 2005

College basketball is done so now I have some work to do after digging a hole early in the season. My last plays were at that ill-fated Nissan Open during the rain.

Nick Price -120 over Jesper Parnevik (Lay 1.2 to win 1 unit)
--This play has nothing to do with the fact Parnevik forgot his clubs this week. Price is a more consistent performer at Augusta than Jesper. Neither player has lit it up so far this season, but Price really doesn't play much before the Masters either. The price is available at 5 Dimes.

I'll have a few more before the week is out.

jwblue · Apr 5, 2005

Thanks..I will look for them.

IS

ApolloKid · Apr 5, 2005

It's tough betting some of these Don Best rotation matchups. Here's probably my best play, which means it will probably lose.

K.J. Choi -137 over Shigeki Maruyama (lay 2.74 to win 2)
-- In his two trips to Augusta, Choi has played very well accept for his first round on this course when he shot 76. That score was the result of him collapsing on the back 9 after he played well on the front. Maruyama, meanwhile, has struggled on this course. This is one major that he doesn't play well at. Playing 2 units on it because the numbers support the play. This line is available at Pinnacle.

GL.

jwblue · Apr 6, 2005

This is crazy.

Choi over Maruyama has gone from -130 to -113 at Pinny. That's a ton of steam. Any thoughts on what Maryuyama bettors are thinking and why they might be wrong?

IS

ApolloKid · Apr 6, 2005

Big moves all over the place. Not quite sure why unless Choi has an undisclosed injury or hasn't played good practice rounds. Maruyama's Masters record is one of the worst of the listed players on the Don Best screen.

The funny thing too is that the over/under for first round scores is Choi 73.5 and Maruyama 75.5. Choi is the better player on this course, with better scores (though he's only played eight rounds).

I am sticking with Choi though I wished I waited, of course. I'll post if I find anything of note. Please do the same.

AK

Coast2Coast · Apr 6, 2005

It's not often you get the higher ranked player as a dog. That's the case here. Maruyama has played better this season and is a higher ranked player. Both have played 8 PGA events; Maryama has 580k in winnings; Choi 380k. Maryama is 8th on the tour in putting; Choi 77th. Maryama is 23rd in the world rankings; Choi is 29th.

IMO, it was Choi's third place finish last year (and his history at Augusta as Apollo Kid noted) that influenced this line to be set where it was in the first place. In most other situations, Maryama would be the favorite in this matchup.

jwblue · Apr 6, 2005

C2C...that sounds like like a sound explanation.

IS

kidslick · Apr 6, 2005

weather??

Tomorrow: Thunderstorms likely. High 68F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall possibly over one inch. Tomorrow night:

Coast2Coast · Apr 6, 2005

Choi is now -106/Maruyama -104 at Pinnacle. There is a significant difference in the odds on these two to win the tourney and make the cut...with Choi having significantly lower odds on those. Seems like there is some value with Choi at this #.

ApolloKid · Apr 6, 2005

Maruyama's Master's Record last 7 years:
2004 82, 71 (MC)
2003 75, 75 (MC)
2002 75,72, 73, 67 (14)
2001 77, 70 (MC)
2000 76, 71, 74, 75 (46)
1999 78, 70, 71, 74 (31)
1998 74, 80 (MC)

He doesn't play the course well. I don't agree with the steam here at all unless there is some compelling reason that hasn't been reported in the media.

Anyhow, one further piece of info: Choi to make the cut at Pinny is a mini-bridge jumper -330 while Maruyama's price is -180.

I may lose this play, of course, but nothing to support Shigeki here.

GL this week.

AK

jwblue · Apr 7, 2005

Apollo Kid said:
Maruyama's Master's Record last 7 years:
2004 82, 71 (MC)
2003 75, 75 (MC)
2002 75,72, 73, 67 (14)
2001 77, 70 (MC)
2000 76, 71, 74, 75 (46)
1999 78, 70, 71, 74 (31)
1998 74, 80 (MC)

He doesn't play the course well. I don't agree with the steam here at all unless there is some compelling reason that hasn't been reported in the media.

Anyhow, one further piece of info: Choi to make the cut at Pinny is a mini-bridge jumper -330 while Maruyama's price is -180.

I may lose this play, of course, but nothing to support Shigeki here.

GL this week.

AK

AK,

It could be inexperienced golf bettors on this one driving the line on Maruyama. I am sure it is like any other sport where the public is usually wrong.

IS

airbag · Apr 7, 2005

Could it be that there is more money coming in from Japan on Maruyama? The Japanese love their golf and would love to see Maruyama spank a Korean.

ApolloKid · Apr 7, 2005

airbag said:
Could it be that there is more money coming in from Japan on Maruyama? The Japanese love their golf and would love to see Maruyama spank a Korean.

This was another theory I thought about as well. Similar episode happened with a boxing match a few weeks ago. No one could figure out why the money was coming in, but, apparently, a number of large bets were placed by people from the fighter's home country.

This rain is going to screw up the tournament today anyhow. I really hate betting these tournaments when it rains, which is one of the reasons I haven't played PGA in two months. Let's hope tomorrow is a better day.

ApolloKid · Apr 8, 2005

adding

Masters Second Round
Langer +147 over Garcia (lay 1 to win 1.47 units)
-- Sergio is a big favorite here on name only. Bernhard has showed up to play and this is worth a play at these odds. This is available at Pinnacle.

GL.

ApolloKid · Apr 8, 2005

adding

Masters Second Round
Beem +190 over Nick Price (lay 1 to win 1.9 units)
-- I hate to bet against players who I have already played, but Price hasn't brought his "A" game this week so far. Beem isn't anything spectacular, but at +190 over 18 holes, I like the play. This is available at 5 dimes.

GL.

ApolloKid · Apr 9, 2005

3rd Round

God, it was tough sitting at the computer this morning working on other stuff while I watched Langer and Beem both bogey their way in to the clubhouse en route to losing matches. I'll tally all this madness up Sunday night.

Here is the only third round play I am making, and it is strictly based on price.

Casey Wittenburg +138 over Ryan Moore 1 to win 1.38 (Pinnacle).

GL.

ApolloKid · Apr 9, 2005

Taking one more 3rd Round:

Hensby +125 over Howell at Pinnacle. laying 1 to win 1.25
-- Too many people putting stock in Howell's good start on Friday.

GL.

ApolloKid · Apr 10, 2005

Masters Final Round
O'Meara +145 over D. Howell 1 unit
--Fading Howell again with O'Meara, a consistent performer. This is at 5dimes.

ApolloKid · Apr 10, 2005

Masters Final Round
Two more from 5 dimes

Langer +105 over Haas 1 unit
Katayama -105 over Riley 1 unit

Still looking for a few more.

GL.

jwblue · Apr 10, 2005

Woods (-145) over Mickelson (VIP)....I was thinking this even before the anouncers mentioned it. Playing 27 holes in one day is physically and mentally taxing. They are doing it three days in a row. Woods is in the best shape of anyone, physically and mentally. Mickelson is not known for being in the best shape, physically and mentally.

Woods is a strong play.

IS