Massachusetts vs Connecticut on 11/04 by blackwiseguy
10
FINAL
27
Game Massachusetts
+15½ -109
LOSS
Loss 5
Handicapper Analysis
0
This game has all the makings of a low-scoring affair on Friday night and as such, I'm backing the Under 40.5 as my best bet.
UMass averages 12 points a game and has scored 13 points or less in four of its last five. They’ve started at least three QBs this season — sophomore QB Brady Olson got the start last week and threw for 145 yards with one interception.
Olson started eight games as a freshman, throwing for 1,145 yards with eight TD passes and seven interceptions. It's the same story this year as last season: the running game is non-existent, the offensive line doesn’t keep his jersey clean, and bad turnovers come as a result.
The ground game is shaky at best as junior QB Gino Campiotti leads the team in rushing and might come in to spell Olson on Friday. He ran once for six yards last week, so anything is possible in the UMass QB carousel.
The Huskies' defense allows the 67th-most points in the college game. Their rushing defense allows 147 yards and the passing 241, but they should be able to thwart just about anything UMass offers.
UConn is very much the same story. They don’t score much more than UMass and are 124th in total yards. Frosh QB Zion Turner is having a decent season and has thrown four TD passes with one interception over his past five.
Leading rusher Nathan Carter is out for the season, and maybe sophomore RB Devontae Houston will dress after its game with Boston College. Outside of that, the Huskies' offense shouldn't be relied on to move the ball.
UMass allows the 63rd-fewest yards in the college game but does allow 30 points per contest. Their rushing defense is below average but held New Mexico State to 111 yards in a losing effort.
We’ll see an offensive slog on Friday night where the defenses are better than the offenses. Neither side has been throwing the football effectively, so we’ll get plenty of clock-grinding rushing attempts with extremely ineffective passing games.
Both offenses convert an average of 4.5 third downs per contest, and too many 3-and-outs won’t put enough points on the scoreboard to exceed the total. UMass is 128th in penalty yards and usually kills any offensive drive they have.
It’s difficult to imagine either team scoring more than 15 points, making the Under my best bet Friday night.
UMass averages 12 points a game and has scored 13 points or less in four of its last five. They’ve started at least three QBs this season — sophomore QB Brady Olson got the start last week and threw for 145 yards with one interception.
Olson started eight games as a freshman, throwing for 1,145 yards with eight TD passes and seven interceptions. It's the same story this year as last season: the running game is non-existent, the offensive line doesn’t keep his jersey clean, and bad turnovers come as a result.
The ground game is shaky at best as junior QB Gino Campiotti leads the team in rushing and might come in to spell Olson on Friday. He ran once for six yards last week, so anything is possible in the UMass QB carousel.
The Huskies' defense allows the 67th-most points in the college game. Their rushing defense allows 147 yards and the passing 241, but they should be able to thwart just about anything UMass offers.
UConn is very much the same story. They don’t score much more than UMass and are 124th in total yards. Frosh QB Zion Turner is having a decent season and has thrown four TD passes with one interception over his past five.
Leading rusher Nathan Carter is out for the season, and maybe sophomore RB Devontae Houston will dress after its game with Boston College. Outside of that, the Huskies' offense shouldn't be relied on to move the ball.
UMass allows the 63rd-fewest yards in the college game but does allow 30 points per contest. Their rushing defense is below average but held New Mexico State to 111 yards in a losing effort.
We’ll see an offensive slog on Friday night where the defenses are better than the offenses. Neither side has been throwing the football effectively, so we’ll get plenty of clock-grinding rushing attempts with extremely ineffective passing games.
Both offenses convert an average of 4.5 third downs per contest, and too many 3-and-outs won’t put enough points on the scoreboard to exceed the total. UMass is 128th in penalty yards and usually kills any offensive drive they have.
It’s difficult to imagine either team scoring more than 15 points, making the Under my best bet Friday night.
