A list of best bets from VSiN experts from our March Mania Betting Guide.
A popular team after winning the Mountain West tournament as the No. 6 seed, New Mexico is being overvalued as the 11th-seeded favorite in this game. The Lobos are volatile, and they are capable of extreme highs and lows due to their reliance on shooting guards Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. Clemson’s stock is low after its poor showing in the ACC tournament. Still, the Tigers are more physical and should win this game behind big man PJ Hall and guards Joe Girard and Chase Hunter.
UAB +7 over San Diego State
Don’t expect another Cinderella run for the Aztecs, who will get whipped by UConn again if they can get past this first-round game. In the Mountain West title game, San Diego State was outscored 11-2 in the final 5½ minutes and lost to New Mexico. Jaedon LeDee is a stud, but the Aztecs have no consistent scorers or shooters around him. The Blazers, who bring a five-game win streak into this matchup, get superior guard play from Eric Gaines, Efrem Johnson and Alejandro Vasquez.
By sheer amount of possessions, this will be a difficult number for Houston to cover, as they rank 348th out of 362 Division I teams in total possessions per game, while Longwood ranks 271st. Longwood also is one of the few lower seeds in the tournament that can cause concern for Houston on the glass. Longwood is ninth in the nation in percentage of missed shots in games played away from home that result in an offensive rebound at 34.9%. Houston also allows opponents plenty of free throw opportunities as they commit a foul on 26.9% of possessions, which ranks 326th in the nation.
James Madison +4.5 vs Wisconsin
The Wisconsin offense takes a dip away from the Kohl Center, scoring 9.7 points fewer per 100 possessions when away from home compared to playing in Madison. They have to try to bust through a James Madison team that is in the top 20 nationally in both points scored and points allowed on a per possession basis. The only other schools that can say that are Connecticut, Arizona, and Auburn.
Western Kentucky +14 vs Marquette
While Marquette point guard Tyler Kolek should be ready to play after missing each of the Golden Eagles last six games, it is unclear how close to 100 percent he is. Additionally, Marquette is not as good of a rebounding team as Western Kentucky, as Marquette is 283rd in the country in rebound rate while Western Kentucky is 81st in this category. Western Kentucky is also 37th in opponents’ 3-point percentage shooting in games played away from home at 31%, while Marquette is 155th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 33.6%.
It’s time to push back on the market. Florida Atlantic opened catching points and it is now a 2.5-point favorite, but this is nothing to fear. The market has been too high on the Owls all season long, and it has led to a 16-17 ATS record for the season. Boo Buie is capable of taking over this game for the Wildcats and sending the Foul Owls on the prowl for a bus back home.
Marquette (-14) over Western Kentucky
Does the market not think Tyler Kolek is playing? Every indication is that the Golden Eagles’ second-leading scorer is going to play, but this number is steadily heading in the Hilltoppers’ direction. I’ll take my chances and lay a number that opened 16.5 on Selection Sunday. Marquette is brilliant at forcing turnovers (21.1%, 21st) and gets a Western Kentucky squad which ranks 266th in the country in offensive turnover rate (18.3%).
UAB (+6.5) over San Diego State
This is likely going to be one of the most popular plays, but I do not care. The Aztecs are one of the most overrated teams in the field. SDSU is 13-19 ATS on the season, a combined 5-14 ATS away from home in both away and neutral settings and has no offense. The Aztecs were sixth in offensive efficiency in Mountain West play (108.1 offensive rating) and 11th in 3-point shooting (30.4%). SDSU was a team I had circled to play against when the NCAA Tournament began, and I am doing just that.
I love backing good teams off a bad loss. Houston enters the tourney after getting blasted by 28 in the Big 12 final against Iowa State. That’s bad news for Longwood, who might be in for a long night. Historically speaking, teams coming off a 20+ point loss are 23-10 ATS in their NCAA Tournament opener, and I expect this number to keep climbing before tip-off Friday night in Memphis. Longwood is a nice story out of the Big South, but they played their best game of the season upsetting UNC Asheville in the final and I don’t think they have the chops to run with the Cougars. I feel strongly about playing Houston in the 1st half as well.
Clemson +2.5 vs. New Mexico
All I’ve heard since the bracket dropped is how the Mountain West is under-seeded. My counter to that argument is the conference’s track record in the tourney, a putrid 23-46-2 ATS over the last two decades, which includes San Diego State’s 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) run last year. Clemson is well-rested after getting bounced in their ACC Tourney opener by 21 to lowly Boston College, however teams entering off a blowout loss of 20+ are 23-10 ATS in their opening tournament game. Matchup-wise, I don’t think Clemson will have an issue running with the Lobos. They won a 73-possession game earlier this season over UNC in Chapel Hill.
There are a lot of things working in TCU’s favor in this game. While I greatly respect Utah State and head coach Danny Sprinkle, who is going places in a hurry, the Aggies just got a bad matchup in this one. The Horned Frogs play a fast, long, in-your-face defense, as they had a 20.8% TO% during the season. The difference between conferences is huge to me in this one as well.
The Big 12 is a much more physical league than the Mountain West and that’s the type of game that TCU wants to play. They were a top-20 offensive rebounding team per Bart Torvik. They also posted a shot share on Close Twos of 42.3%, which was the second-highest in the Big 12, trailing only Oklahoma. New Mexico was the highest-rated team in shot share on Close Twos in the Mountain West and had 1.259 and 1.158 points per possession against the Aggies in two games.
Utah State was actually second in the MWC in shot share on Close Twos, so I could see this being a high-scoring game as well, but I think their presence in the conference had a lot to do with that. I also feel like Utah State’s rebounding stats are skewed. The Mountain West was 24th in ORB% per Torvik, while the Big 12 was third.
Lastly, Utah State allowed opponents to shoot over 53% on 2s. TCU can shoot 3s and shot 35.6% on them, but over 70% of their shot attempts were 2s. Jamie Dixon’s crew just matches up well here.
I’m generally pretty worried about playing Overs early in the tournament. The neutral-court setting and new atmosphere can be difficult on players. But I have a hard time thinking this will be anything but a shootout.
Alabama played at the 13th-fastest pace in all of college basketball this year and the Tide were fourth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. Meanwhile, they were something of a nightmare defensively, finishing outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. Charleston’s statistical profile is pretty similar. The Cougars were 53rd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 177th in defensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. They were also 53rd in adjusted tempo.
These are just two teams that want to get up and down the floor to try and out-gun opponents. And both of them absolutely launch 3s, with Alabama being 18th in the nation in 3-point rate and Charleston being 16th. That said, defense will be optional in this one. And if you’re worried about how high the number is, don’t be. The Over is 15-5 when Alabama has a total of 160 or higher this season. The average total points scored in such games is 179.1 points per game.
This is a bet on the fastest-paced team in the country landing the first few punches. If Marquette’s Tyler Kolek does indeed make his return after missing time with an abdominal injury, the Golden Eagles offense may need a handful of possessions to get back into place.
Colgate has been a regular in the NCAA Tournament for the past five years thanks to their dominance of the Patriot League. However, this year’s Raiders squad is quite different. The past four teams to reach the NCAA Tournament ranked 43rd (2023), 78th (2022), 53rd (2021), and 60th (2019) in adjusted offensive efficiency. This year’s team ranks 211th. It is hard to envision how Colgate will be able to keep up with Baylor. The Bears enter the NCAA Tournament rated sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency. The two toughest teams Colgate faced this year were Illinois and Arizona. The Raiders lost by 17 and 27, respectively, and I expect a similar outcome against the Bears.
UAB +7 vs San Diego State
After a magical run to the NCAA Championship last year, San Diego State has been a bit overvalued this year. The Aztecs are 13-19 ATS this year and finished with seven losses in the Mountain West Conference and lost to New Mexico in the Mountain West Championship. Since January 13, the Aztecs rate as the 89th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency per Bart Torvik. UAB ran through the American Athletic Conference Tournament and over their last five games ranks as a top-10 offense in the country. The Blazers will attack the offensive glass all game long and it will be interesting to see if the Aztecs can take advantage of a Blazers’ defense that rated 202nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Cougars pummel really good teams, and now they get to bottle up frustration for a few days after getting smoked in the B12 title game to face a 16 seed. This game could get ugly from the jump.
Alabama/Charleston Over 173.5
Bama has been one of the best Over teams the entire season. They’re top 10 in pace and No. 2 on offense, and get to play a Charleston team that is top 60 in both categories. This should be up and down the court.
Friday Games
Matt Youmans
Clemson +2.5 over New MexicoA popular team after winning the Mountain West tournament as the No. 6 seed, New Mexico is being overvalued as the 11th-seeded favorite in this game. The Lobos are volatile, and they are capable of extreme highs and lows due to their reliance on shooting guards Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. Clemson’s stock is low after its poor showing in the ACC tournament. Still, the Tigers are more physical and should win this game behind big man PJ Hall and guards Joe Girard and Chase Hunter.
UAB +7 over San Diego State
Don’t expect another Cinderella run for the Aztecs, who will get whipped by UConn again if they can get past this first-round game. In the Mountain West title game, San Diego State was outscored 11-2 in the final 5½ minutes and lost to New Mexico. Jaedon LeDee is a stud, but the Aztecs have no consistent scorers or shooters around him. The Blazers, who bring a five-game win streak into this matchup, get superior guard play from Eric Gaines, Efrem Johnson and Alejandro Vasquez.
Greg Peterson
Longwood +23.5 vs HoustonBy sheer amount of possessions, this will be a difficult number for Houston to cover, as they rank 348th out of 362 Division I teams in total possessions per game, while Longwood ranks 271st. Longwood also is one of the few lower seeds in the tournament that can cause concern for Houston on the glass. Longwood is ninth in the nation in percentage of missed shots in games played away from home that result in an offensive rebound at 34.9%. Houston also allows opponents plenty of free throw opportunities as they commit a foul on 26.9% of possessions, which ranks 326th in the nation.
James Madison +4.5 vs Wisconsin
The Wisconsin offense takes a dip away from the Kohl Center, scoring 9.7 points fewer per 100 possessions when away from home compared to playing in Madison. They have to try to bust through a James Madison team that is in the top 20 nationally in both points scored and points allowed on a per possession basis. The only other schools that can say that are Connecticut, Arizona, and Auburn.
Western Kentucky +14 vs Marquette
While Marquette point guard Tyler Kolek should be ready to play after missing each of the Golden Eagles last six games, it is unclear how close to 100 percent he is. Additionally, Marquette is not as good of a rebounding team as Western Kentucky, as Marquette is 283rd in the country in rebound rate while Western Kentucky is 81st in this category. Western Kentucky is also 37th in opponents’ 3-point percentage shooting in games played away from home at 31%, while Marquette is 155th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 33.6%.
Jonathan Von Tobel
Northwestern ML (+120) over Florida AtlanticIt’s time to push back on the market. Florida Atlantic opened catching points and it is now a 2.5-point favorite, but this is nothing to fear. The market has been too high on the Owls all season long, and it has led to a 16-17 ATS record for the season. Boo Buie is capable of taking over this game for the Wildcats and sending the Foul Owls on the prowl for a bus back home.
Marquette (-14) over Western Kentucky
Does the market not think Tyler Kolek is playing? Every indication is that the Golden Eagles’ second-leading scorer is going to play, but this number is steadily heading in the Hilltoppers’ direction. I’ll take my chances and lay a number that opened 16.5 on Selection Sunday. Marquette is brilliant at forcing turnovers (21.1%, 21st) and gets a Western Kentucky squad which ranks 266th in the country in offensive turnover rate (18.3%).
UAB (+6.5) over San Diego State
This is likely going to be one of the most popular plays, but I do not care. The Aztecs are one of the most overrated teams in the field. SDSU is 13-19 ATS on the season, a combined 5-14 ATS away from home in both away and neutral settings and has no offense. The Aztecs were sixth in offensive efficiency in Mountain West play (108.1 offensive rating) and 11th in 3-point shooting (30.4%). SDSU was a team I had circled to play against when the NCAA Tournament began, and I am doing just that.
Jared Smith
Houston -23 vs. LongwoodI love backing good teams off a bad loss. Houston enters the tourney after getting blasted by 28 in the Big 12 final against Iowa State. That’s bad news for Longwood, who might be in for a long night. Historically speaking, teams coming off a 20+ point loss are 23-10 ATS in their NCAA Tournament opener, and I expect this number to keep climbing before tip-off Friday night in Memphis. Longwood is a nice story out of the Big South, but they played their best game of the season upsetting UNC Asheville in the final and I don’t think they have the chops to run with the Cougars. I feel strongly about playing Houston in the 1st half as well.
Clemson +2.5 vs. New Mexico
All I’ve heard since the bracket dropped is how the Mountain West is under-seeded. My counter to that argument is the conference’s track record in the tourney, a putrid 23-46-2 ATS over the last two decades, which includes San Diego State’s 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) run last year. Clemson is well-rested after getting bounced in their ACC Tourney opener by 21 to lowly Boston College, however teams entering off a blowout loss of 20+ are 23-10 ATS in their opening tournament game. Matchup-wise, I don’t think Clemson will have an issue running with the Lobos. They won a 73-possession game earlier this season over UNC in Chapel Hill.
Adam Burke
TCU -3.5 vs. Utah StateThere are a lot of things working in TCU’s favor in this game. While I greatly respect Utah State and head coach Danny Sprinkle, who is going places in a hurry, the Aggies just got a bad matchup in this one. The Horned Frogs play a fast, long, in-your-face defense, as they had a 20.8% TO% during the season. The difference between conferences is huge to me in this one as well.
The Big 12 is a much more physical league than the Mountain West and that’s the type of game that TCU wants to play. They were a top-20 offensive rebounding team per Bart Torvik. They also posted a shot share on Close Twos of 42.3%, which was the second-highest in the Big 12, trailing only Oklahoma. New Mexico was the highest-rated team in shot share on Close Twos in the Mountain West and had 1.259 and 1.158 points per possession against the Aggies in two games.
Utah State was actually second in the MWC in shot share on Close Twos, so I could see this being a high-scoring game as well, but I think their presence in the conference had a lot to do with that. I also feel like Utah State’s rebounding stats are skewed. The Mountain West was 24th in ORB% per Torvik, while the Big 12 was third.
Lastly, Utah State allowed opponents to shoot over 53% on 2s. TCU can shoot 3s and shot 35.6% on them, but over 70% of their shot attempts were 2s. Jamie Dixon’s crew just matches up well here.
Zachary Cohen
Charleston/Alabama Over 172.5I’m generally pretty worried about playing Overs early in the tournament. The neutral-court setting and new atmosphere can be difficult on players. But I have a hard time thinking this will be anything but a shootout.
Alabama played at the 13th-fastest pace in all of college basketball this year and the Tide were fourth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. Meanwhile, they were something of a nightmare defensively, finishing outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. Charleston’s statistical profile is pretty similar. The Cougars were 53rd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 177th in defensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. They were also 53rd in adjusted tempo.
These are just two teams that want to get up and down the floor to try and out-gun opponents. And both of them absolutely launch 3s, with Alabama being 18th in the nation in 3-point rate and Charleston being 16th. That said, defense will be optional in this one. And if you’re worried about how high the number is, don’t be. The Over is 15-5 when Alabama has a total of 160 or higher this season. The average total points scored in such games is 179.1 points per game.
Aaron Moore
Western Kentucky (+185) Race to 10 winner against MarquetteThis is a bet on the fastest-paced team in the country landing the first few punches. If Marquette’s Tyler Kolek does indeed make his return after missing time with an abdominal injury, the Golden Eagles offense may need a handful of possessions to get back into place.
Tim Murray
Baylor -13.5 vs ColgateColgate has been a regular in the NCAA Tournament for the past five years thanks to their dominance of the Patriot League. However, this year’s Raiders squad is quite different. The past four teams to reach the NCAA Tournament ranked 43rd (2023), 78th (2022), 53rd (2021), and 60th (2019) in adjusted offensive efficiency. This year’s team ranks 211th. It is hard to envision how Colgate will be able to keep up with Baylor. The Bears enter the NCAA Tournament rated sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency. The two toughest teams Colgate faced this year were Illinois and Arizona. The Raiders lost by 17 and 27, respectively, and I expect a similar outcome against the Bears.
UAB +7 vs San Diego State
After a magical run to the NCAA Championship last year, San Diego State has been a bit overvalued this year. The Aztecs are 13-19 ATS this year and finished with seven losses in the Mountain West Conference and lost to New Mexico in the Mountain West Championship. Since January 13, the Aztecs rate as the 89th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency per Bart Torvik. UAB ran through the American Athletic Conference Tournament and over their last five games ranks as a top-10 offense in the country. The Blazers will attack the offensive glass all game long and it will be interesting to see if the Aztecs can take advantage of a Blazers’ defense that rated 202nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Mitch Moss
Houston 1H -14.5 vs. LongwoodThe Cougars pummel really good teams, and now they get to bottle up frustration for a few days after getting smoked in the B12 title game to face a 16 seed. This game could get ugly from the jump.
Alabama/Charleston Over 173.5
Bama has been one of the best Over teams the entire season. They’re top 10 in pace and No. 2 on offense, and get to play a Charleston team that is top 60 in both categories. This should be up and down the court.
