***** LSU/Alabama, TCU/Wyoming *****

[thenatural74]

www. alpha capper .com

Just piece the word together for the website!

Here are my Saturday, 11/05/11 NCAAF Plays. I only have two and have researched these games to death and really broke them down. When I win on the TCU/Wyoming game, I'm turning around and doubling down on the LSU/Alabama game! My plays are the cheapest you’ll find anywhere for the time and effort that goes into my research and I give plenty of information in my writeups. Check them out and find out for yourself. Feel free to look at my Archives page on my site. Be sure to get the guaranteed plays because if I happen to lose one, then my next play for the following day is yours free!

Texas Christian at Wyoming
2:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 5, 2011
War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, Wyoming
(TCU -19, 59)


#1 Louisiana State at #2 Alabama
8:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 5, 2011
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
(Alabama -5, 42 )

Thanks to everyone that has been following me over the past 5 years and looking forward to many more!!! ~thenatural74~

Alpha Capper

www. alpha capper .com



:fballch3:

 

[thenatural74]

Huge thanks to everyone who's purchased already. Good lines to be on before they move any!

 

[thenatural74]

Most everybody seems to be purchasing the LSU/Alabama game.....don't forget about the TCU/Wyoming game at 2:00 pm ET. I feel just as good about that play if not better!!

 

[thenatural74]

Texas Christian at Wyoming

2:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 5, 2011

War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, Wyoming

(TCU -19, 59)

Here we have the Horned Frogs of TCU visiting the Cowboys of Wyoming in what I think will be an interesting contest. This TCU squad is not the same team or quit as dominant as the one that automatically pops into your head from recent years past. But still, they are good for sure. Lets get right down to a few stats. TCU is ranked 39th in the nation on offense. They average 430.9 yards per game which comes by way of 207.2 yards on the ground and another 223.6 through the air. Wyoming comes in ranked 34th in the nation on offense averaging 433 yards per contest. They rush for 190.9 yards per game and another 242 yards comes from their passing game on average. The Cowboys average 33.8 points per game at home while TCU averages scoring 36.7 points per game on the road. At home, Wyoming averages holding teams to just 23.5 points per game while the Horned Frogs average holding teams to 27.7 points while playing a road game. I like my chances with Wyoming to stay within 19 points knowing those stats for sure, but here is one that I do not like. The Cowboys are only ranked 109th in the nation when it comes to defending the run giving up an average of 211.1 yards per game which leaves the door open for Wesley, James and Tucker from TCU to potentially tear things up on the ground. Lets look at a few more things first before we make up our minds, shall we?

If there is a glimmer of hope for this Wyoming team to win, then that could be knowing this. The Cowboys are coming in on a small winning streak taking there last game out against San Diego State. In that game they were 18.5 point underdogs and they won the game outright. Make no mistake about it....Wyoming will be out looking for revenge after getting destroyed by this TCU team the past couple of years. This may even turn into a shootout where the last team that has the ball wins. This is a great let down spot for TCU also as they have big bad Boise State coming up next week. The Cowboys know that if they could pull off the upset, then that would go a long way for their program having a huge upset under their belts and plus help get them back into the postseason with a Bowl game. Their Freshman QB, Brett Smith is exceeding everyones expectations this year and he has a 60.7 completion percentage. His TD to interception ratio is 11-5. They have a couple of good backs and a few good receivers to work with also. Despite some of the problems they have on defense, they still have 17 sacks, 6 interceptions and 9 fumble recoveries. The Horned Frogs are a very good team despite not being the powerhouse we think about from past years. Although They have a decent QB in Casey Pachall, he is no Andy Dalton. Plus he doesn’t have the kind of talent surrounding him that Dalton did. Their group of backs and receivers are still probably a tad bit better than those of the Cowboys. Between Dawson, Boyce and Wesley, they can really make things happen, and quickly if you don’t account for them 100% of the time. Now onto their defense. They have talent still on that side of the ball with the likes of Carder and Maponga, but even they are not as stout as in recent history.

In my opinion, TCU is probably the more talented team that will be on the field, but they are definitely not 19 points better than the Cowboys, especially at home. This game has a lot of meaning to it since both teams are undefeated in Mountain West Conference play so the crowd will be packed out and loud! Even if Wyoming can’t put a stop to TCU’s 20 game conference winning streak they have going on, you can bet they’ll give them a run for their money! Take the home ‘dog here.

Wyoming Cowboys +19

 

[thenatural74]

#1 Louisiana State at #2 Alabama
8:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 5, 2011
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
(Alabama -5, 42 )


The Hype

What more could you ask for? It’s like a National Championship caliber game in the middle of the season between two very tough SEC teams.....gotta love it!! All eyes will be tuned into CBS this Saturday night when 101,821 screaming fans will be rocking Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL. The football world will get to see the #1 ranked team in the nation, LSU, pay a visit to the #2 ranked team in the land, Alabama. The table couldn’t be set any prettier for this matchup as both teams are 8-0 on the season, feature stout defenses, and have had time to heal and rest up benefitting from a bye week prior to this game. Oh yeah, the offenses aren’t that bad either as both teams have won all of their games this season by double digits. LSU seems to be getting all their players back from suspension too that they were missing, so both teams should be at full strength. Expect to see an all-out war in this one on both sides of the ball including some tricky special teams play. Hey, this marks the very first number 1 versus number 2 matchup in SEC regular season history so you know it’s going to be great! Lets get right down to business and look at both teams shall we?


The LSU Tigers

The Tigers defense is pretty good when you consider they have held their opponents to zero TD’s in 24 out of the 32 total quarters they have played this year. They haven’t allowed a first quarter TD all year and have limited their rivals to just 4 total field goals. But, they have scored TD’s in 25 out of them 32 quarters. Plus, in the same amount of time, they have only found themselves trailing at any point just a little over 6 minutes out of the 480 minutes they’ve played. Lets just say that after the second quarter of their opening game against Oregon it hasn’t happened again. And it just so happens that they have scored first in every game this year too. LSU is no stranger to playing tough teams either as Alabama will be the sixth Top 25 ranked opponent that they have faced off against this season. When it comes to defense, the Tigers are ranked in the top 10 in the nation in 4 major categories. Per game, they are third in scoring defense at 11.5, third in rush defense allowing 76.6 yards, fifth in pass efficiency defense with a rating of 96.48 and fourth in total defense only allowing 251.4 yards. On offense they rank second in the SEC in scoring averaging 39.2 points per game and have scored 30 points or better in 7 of the 8 games they’ve played so far. They average 372.1 total yards of offense per contest, 189 rushing and another 183.1 through the air.

Their QB combination knows about making it happen in general. Jarrett Lee is a 63.2 percent passer and has 13 TD’s against just one interception for 1,250 yards. He’s thrown at least 1 TD in all 8 games this year. Jordan Jefferson has 2 TD’s and has rushed for 111 yards. Their running backs can swap out and stay fresh. Spencer Ware has 6 TD’s on 512 yards, Michael Ford also has 6 TD’s on 441 yards and Alfred Blue has 4 TD’s on 252 yards. As you can tell by the above offensive stats, they are pretty balanced between the air and on the ground. Their leading receivers are Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham. Randle has 7 TD’s on 638 yards from 33 catches and Odell has 2 TD’s on 334 yards from 27 catches. On defense, the Tigers have only allowed 4 total TD’s in their 5 SEC games they’ve played so far. In those games, they’ve held all them opponents to just 41 combined points. They have a multitude of players on defense that can rush the opposing quarterback, sack him for a loss, force fumbles and come up with big interceptions. They have forced 18 turnovers on the season. And if you want to talk about coming into this game playing good football at just the right time, consider this.....they went the whole month of October without a single turnover and have only turned it over just three times total this whole year! And this team doesn’t mind playing at night, in prime time and even on the road. They have won their last 16 straight night games which include 6 in a row on the road in that span. That brings Les Miles record to 48-4 overall in games played after the sun goes down.

To be a great team, especially in the SEC, you have to do a lot of things right. One of those things is taking care of the football yourself while causing turnovers for the other team. Through these first 8 games, LSU has only turned the ball over 3 total times which leads the SEC at -1.88 turnover margin per game. They pride themselves on being able to stop the run and only giving up short yardage plays. The longest run against them on the season is just a 29 yarder by Auburn’s Michael Dyer. Through 96 opponents possessions against them, they have either forced a 3 and out or a turnover 48 different times. If it comes down to a battle of field position, their punter leads the SEC in punting averaging 44.4 yards per punt. Plus, they cover the punt well as they have only allowed 7 total punt return yards up until now. And if you want to talk about redzone offenses, well you found a good one when it comes to the Tigers. They lead the SEC yet again in another category and rank number 2 in the nation by converting on 38 of 39 trips to there this season. That’s 7 field goals and 31 TD’s. Of the 3 turnovers LSU has lost, only one of them resulted in a score for the other team, and that was just a field goal.

 

[thenatural74]

The Alabama Crimson Tide

Now lets take a look at the home team, Alabama. Recent history has been in favor of the Tide between these two. Bama leads the all time series between them with a record of 45-24-5 and has took two out of the last three meetings. But, this is just the ninth game in the history of this stadium between the Tide and another top 10 ranked opponent. Unlike LSU who is known for their quick scores and being first on the board with points, Bama has been starting off games kind of slow and then turning up the heat in the final 3 quarters of play. They have outscored their opponents 243 to 25 in those quarters. In the last 6 games, Alabama has outscored their rival teams 142 to 7, and in the last 4 games, they haven’t even allowed a second half point period! Here’s where things start to get interesting. Remember what I said earlier about how LSU lead the SEC in a couple of categories and were ranked like second in the SEC in a lot of others? Well guess who is leading all those other categories......BINGO....it’s Alabama! They currently lead the SEC in total offense, scoring offense, total defense and scoring defense. They average 457.6 yards per game while holding teams to just 180.5 yards per game. They average scoring 40 points per game while holding opponents scores to about 7.

More on this stout offense and defense the Tide own. They lead the league in rushing offense averaging 229.3 per game, rushing defense averaging allowing just 44.9 yards per game, pass efficiency defense at 44.9 and passing defense allowing only 127.3 yards per contest. They rank second in net punt return yardage allowed at only 12.7, are a +0.75 in turnover margin, tackles for a loss at 8.7 per game and sacks allowed at only 1.5 per game. And not only is Alabama winning big, but they are winning by 16 or more points spanning back over their past 9 games. Their defense has help opponents to 14 points or less points through their first 8 games this year. That helps them lead the nation in scoring defense. Over them past 9 games, the Tides defense has allowed just 34.56 rushing yards on average. In 5 of those 9 games, they have allowed less than 28 rushing yards and only 2 rushing TD’s. Their defense as a whole is a beast to contend with also. And just like LSU, they know how to apply pressure and get to opposing quarterbacks. They have recorded 61 tackles for losses this season already and 17 sacks through these first eight games. They are a team that knows how to use ball control to their advantage and are very capable of sustaining long drives as they have already had 4 drives of over 90 yards this season alone. That is tied for third in the nation. They just have talent on both sides of the ball and have 3 players listed as semifinalists for the Lombardi Award. Other players are up for the Lott Trophy and more in the running for the Butkus Award.

In the past 9 games dating back to last year, Bama has rushed for 2,109 yards on 352 carries and 33 TD’s. That comes up to an average of 234.3 rushing yards per game and almost 6 yards a carry! Trent Richardson is a beast and LSU will be force fed heavy doses of him and Eddie Lacy throughout this game. There has been a lot of emphasis put on the Tide finishing games strong this year and competing until the final whistle blows. Including 3 Top 25 teams, the Tide have outscored all 8 of their opponents this year to the tune of 69-8 in the fourth quarter. In the process, they have out gained opposing teams 730 yards to just 135 on the ground. Rival teams in this quarter find it harder to pass as the average completion rate is just a mere 44.1 percent. There have been 5 interceptions in this time frame too. Saban has his troops out to prove something as they have been winning games by an average of 32.5 points per game. Something else that is key to winning quality games time after time if by playing mistake free ball and keep your penalties to a minimum. Alabama ranks second in the nation in fewest penalties per game. Their schedule hasn’t been a cakewalk either as they have already faced 4 Top 25 teams on the season. Their defense has at least 1 interception in seven of the eight games this year. 8 different players have recorded an interception to this point so they have some ball hawks on the defensive side. In the first half of play, they have allowed 12 points or less over the past 13 first halves of games.


The Conclusion

LSU may find it a little tough to pass on Alabama as the Tide’s defense is the best in the nation in keeping opposing teams passes to a minimum. Opponents are only completing throws at a 48.15 percentage clip. And when teams do find a way to complete a pass, Bama also leads the nation in holding teams to just 4.47 yards per attempt. They have a knack for keeping teams off the field by causing plenty of 3 and outs forcing 57 of them through these first 8 games. The Tide have ran 458 plays on the season versus opponents 119 plays. That’s a huge difference. To me, and I’m not knocking LSU’s defense at all because they know how to generate turnovers and keep 7 and 8 yards plays to just 3 and 4 yard gains, but Alabama’s defense is the best at just wearing you down the longer the game goes on. Like before mentioned, they are first in the nation in defensive yards per play, defensive scoring, defensive rush yards per game, defensive passing yards per attempt, opponents redzone attempts, defensive rushing yards per attempt....do I really need to keep going on?

Here are some comparisons of the two teams in several categories, and although some are pretty close, as they should be between the two top ranked teams in the nation, others are not. Lets take a look. Points per game: Bama 39, LSU 38. Rushing Offense: Bama 15th, LSU 29th. Passing Offense: Bama 61st, LSU 99th. Total Offense: Bama 23rd, LSU 78th. Scoring Defense: Bama allows 6.9 points per game, LSU allows 11.5. Rushing Defense: Bama allows only 44.88 yards per game, LSU allows 76.63. Passing Defense: Bama is 3rd in the country, LSU ranks 11th. Total Defense: Bama allows 180.5 per game, LSU allows 251.4. Third Down Conversions: Bama 12th, LSU 34th. Third Down Conversion Prevention: Bama 2nd, LSU 20th. Penalties: Bama 3rd least penalized, LSU 79th. LSU gives up way more “Big Plays” than does the Tide. Bama averages 50 yards per game in punt returns and has returned one for a TD on the season. LSU averages 21 yards per game in that category and has not returned any for a TD on the season. Alabama is deeper in the Receivers category having 9 players with eight or more catches this season. LSU has only 4 with eight or more catches. Alabama has 3 Running Backs with at least 12 carries that average 7 or more yards per play. LSU has zero. Now for the big money question.....Do I feel Alabama is really 5 points better than LSU at this point of the season and for this game? Yes I do! I feel they are 8 to 10 points better at home with their coaching staff. Take the Tide here and don’t be afraid to lay the chalk!

Alabama Crimson Tide -5